Betting Every Game: ML Dogs

[orange5]

Betting on every game is idiotic anyway. That’s what novices do. Only bet on games where you think you have a 60% chance or more of succeeding. (Since almost everybody overconfident about their own bets, if you think your bet has a 60% chance of succeeding, it probably only has about a 55% chance of succeeding.)

I bet on 6 bowl games overall, 2 of which occurred yesterday. I correctly picked Fresno State -3.5 vs Arizona State.

And why take money lines? I took the underdog in 4 of my 6 bets (Duke +5.5 vs Temple, Miami +4 vs Wisconsin, UCF +8 vs LSU and OU +14 vs Alabama) and I’m using the spread. It’s good to have a little room where you can win even if they lose.

[jjgold]

[TommieGunshot]

Betting on every game is idiotic anyway. That’s what novices do. Only bet on games where you think you have a 60% chance or more of succeeding. (Since almost everybody overconfident about their own bets, if you think your bet has a 60% chance of succeeding, it probably only has about a 55% chance of succeeding.)

Winning 55% should be worth at least $1 million per year. Nice job being able to make winning bets at that rate

[ddittie]

Betting underdogs ML in NBA is a reasonable strategy early in the season, before computers have worked out perfected lines. If you only bet dogs you like, you may miss huge ones. Every day that I've bet NBA dogs, I've won. I don't do it every day, but it has worked out 5 times already. Haven't had a losing day yet doing so. I imagine it will get worse as the year progresses and computers pick better lines and teams the good teams get better and the bad ones get worse.