Best Bets For Seahawks-Cowboys
Best bets for Seahawks-Cowboys
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Saturday's matchup? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson give their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday afternoon.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-2)
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Seattle
Johnson: My projections for this game are Cowboys -0.4 with a total of 42.2. There was a brief moment at a couple of shops earlier this week that Seattle +3 existed, but it wasn't around very long. I personally used the Seahawks at +8.5 in a two-team, six-point teaser with the Chargers at +8.5.
Generally, what has worried anybody backing Seattle this season is the offensive line's ability to protect Russell Wilson. The Seahawks allowed the second-worst quarterback sack percentage in the NFL, including six sacks surrendered to the Cardinals in their Week 17 matchup. Arizona actually ranks second in the entire NFL in sack rate, however, so it was a bad matchup for Seattle, and the Cowboys rank below the league average at 18th.
The Seahawks ran the football more than any team in the league this season and did so effectively, racking up over 160 yards on the ground per game (best in the NFL) on 4.8 yards per carry (fifth in the NFL). Dallas' defense does defend the run well, but staunch run defense hasn't steered Seattle away from its game plan during the season.
I anticipate we will see a slower game of ball control (think Seahawks-Vikings in Week 15). Points are expected to come at a premium as it is, with the market total sitting at just 42.5, so getting Seattle over the key number of seven as a teaser leg in a game that I think should be close to a true pick-em anyway is a worthwhile proposition.
Pick: Seahawks +8 in a teaser with Chargers +8.5
Sharp: The Cowboys' offense has been getting more and more aggressive over the course of the season. In Weeks 1-6, Dallas used 57 percent running plays on early downs in the first half, making the Cowboys the most run-heavy team in the NFL; from Week 7 onward, the Cowboys went only 45 percent run, below the NFL average. In addition to passing more, they are passing deeper downfield since Amari Cooper's arrival, and they are throwing more passes to Ezekiel Elliott on first down -- and doing so quite well. Their aggressiveness was on full display in a 36-35 win over the Giants in a meaningless Week 17 game, in which the Cowboys played for the win even though it gained them nothing.
Dallas' pass defense has trended extremely poorly the last month and consistently produced subpar results, save for one game against the Saints. The Cowboys haven't been tested much with deep passes of late. Seattle quietly has the sixth-most explosive pass offense this season, and that unit is trending upward as the fourth-most explosive pass offense in the past month.
Doug Baldwin's presence on the field is the main reason for that. The difference between the pass offense with and without him is massive. Extrapolated to a full season, Seattle has a 6 percent explosive pass rate without him (would be NFL's worst), but a 12 percent explosive pass rate with him (would be NFL's best).
Pick: Over 42.5
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Saturday's matchup? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson give their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday afternoon.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-2)Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Seattle
Johnson: My projections for this game are Cowboys -0.4 with a total of 42.2. There was a brief moment at a couple of shops earlier this week that Seattle +3 existed, but it wasn't around very long. I personally used the Seahawks at +8.5 in a two-team, six-point teaser with the Chargers at +8.5.
Generally, what has worried anybody backing Seattle this season is the offensive line's ability to protect Russell Wilson. The Seahawks allowed the second-worst quarterback sack percentage in the NFL, including six sacks surrendered to the Cardinals in their Week 17 matchup. Arizona actually ranks second in the entire NFL in sack rate, however, so it was a bad matchup for Seattle, and the Cowboys rank below the league average at 18th.
The Seahawks ran the football more than any team in the league this season and did so effectively, racking up over 160 yards on the ground per game (best in the NFL) on 4.8 yards per carry (fifth in the NFL). Dallas' defense does defend the run well, but staunch run defense hasn't steered Seattle away from its game plan during the season.
I anticipate we will see a slower game of ball control (think Seahawks-Vikings in Week 15). Points are expected to come at a premium as it is, with the market total sitting at just 42.5, so getting Seattle over the key number of seven as a teaser leg in a game that I think should be close to a true pick-em anyway is a worthwhile proposition.
Pick: Seahawks +8 in a teaser with Chargers +8.5
Sharp: The Cowboys' offense has been getting more and more aggressive over the course of the season. In Weeks 1-6, Dallas used 57 percent running plays on early downs in the first half, making the Cowboys the most run-heavy team in the NFL; from Week 7 onward, the Cowboys went only 45 percent run, below the NFL average. In addition to passing more, they are passing deeper downfield since Amari Cooper's arrival, and they are throwing more passes to Ezekiel Elliott on first down -- and doing so quite well. Their aggressiveness was on full display in a 36-35 win over the Giants in a meaningless Week 17 game, in which the Cowboys played for the win even though it gained them nothing.
Dallas' pass defense has trended extremely poorly the last month and consistently produced subpar results, save for one game against the Saints. The Cowboys haven't been tested much with deep passes of late. Seattle quietly has the sixth-most explosive pass offense this season, and that unit is trending upward as the fourth-most explosive pass offense in the past month.
Doug Baldwin's presence on the field is the main reason for that. The difference between the pass offense with and without him is massive. Extrapolated to a full season, Seattle has a 6 percent explosive pass rate without him (would be NFL's worst), but a 12 percent explosive pass rate with him (would be NFL's best).
Pick: Over 42.5
