Ncaa hoops a winning strategy

[Festoon]

Crunching numbers all day is like a full-time job. Though I only sifted through 5 games today,I thought it might be a good idea to give a sample of the number crunching I do. Though I don't typically play totals... this game stuck out like a SORE THUMB. Lets start with both teams combining to be 8-20 on the UNDER (both 4-10). I've been eyeing the Vegas Lines all day just to see how it has moved. Started at 131, moved during the day to 133.5 and is now back at 132.5, so I locked in.

TEXAS TECH: a) Top team in the nation in scoring defense giving up a mear 48.5 pts at home and #1 limiting teams at home in FG% at 31. Plus their D is in the top in 5 other defensive categories. Saying that they held DUKE to their lowest point total of the year so far at 69. Only AUBURN held them to less than 80 and that was 78. I think that proves how stingy TT"s D is.
On offense TT sit's at #164 in scoring and #254 in offensive possessions per game, they look after the ball and typically like to play a half court game and that's what I look for when playing Totals.
OKLAHOMA: a) They have a decent defense as well and rank #54 giving up 69 on the road. The only struggles Oke has had this year putting up points was Wisco, Fla and Dayton 3 pretty solid defensive teams avg 62 pts in those games. Saying that this will be their toughest night this season to put up points. I kept this as brief as I could. Sorry for the extened write up just wanted to let JJ know that all newbies are not the same and some newbies have the time to do the work. Not to say this is a lock at all, shit happens (OT), but it is the smart play, or should I dare to say SHARP.

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS and OKLAHOMA SOONERS U-132.5

[The Shooter]

Good morning, well at least the 1st quarter was entertaining, went 1 and 1 with my selections last night on that game. Although I lost with Bama I did however hit on the coin flip. In the future remember this "a little head in the morning and good ole tail in the afternoon". I've used that theory for years and its worked.
Back to business don't usually post a game this early but I expect the line to move north. Typically I like to spread my plays out, so I can play my PUSH RAISE THEORY on the next game (7pm-9pm). I'm having said that first play. (Bet #4)

ORIGINAL ACCOUNT: $1000

EXISTING ACCOUNT: $1251.35 (+5.5 units)

4) 4th Bet risk $175 return $329 - BALL STATE CARDINALS -11.5 -114 (1.75 units)

UPDATED ACCOUNT: $1076.35

RECORD: 3-0

Good luck Festy! Grab yourself a few scoots!

[Festoon]

Broke the streak, congrats to East Michigan. Back to the game plan.

ACCOUNT: $1076.35

5) 5th Bet risk $50 return $94.50 (1 unit)- OKLAHOMA - TEXAS TECH- U132.5

UPDATED ACCOUNT: $1026.35

RECORD 3-1

[Bostongambler]

Good luck Pontoon.

Hey, in between games can you type an essay for us ( 2500 words or less) on your 3rd grade trip to the zoo way back when. Include all the animals you saw; giraffes, elephants, lions, leopards...

Tyia

[Festoon]

Good luck Pontoon.

Hey, in between games can you type an essay for us ( 2500 words or less) on your 3rd grade trip to the zoo way back when. Include all the animals you saw; giraffes, elephants, lions, leopards...

Tyia

That's it Gambler...no more stories I promise...will just give the pick for now on! only reason that was even in the 120's was combined 27-31 from the charity stripe...on to my job

[Festoon]

Another win last night...Adding my record in 2 previous threads to my over-all record and an updated account of my original bankroll of $1000 for tracking purposes. For those of you that track by units I will add that as well ($50=1 unit) All plays documented.

ORIGINAL ACCOUNT: $1000

UPDATED ACCOUNT: $3520.85 (+50 units)

OVERALL COMBINED RECORD: 11W-3L-1P

[SoCal Degen]

100% true Boston. I bought bought into the novel hook, line and sinker. Placed my biggest bet of the year on Ball st. To try and recoup my Alabama loses.

[Festoon]

100% true Boston. I bought bought into the novel hook, line and sinker. Placed my biggest bet of the year on Ball st. To try and recoup my Alabama loses.

I'm sorry to hear that SoCal and apologize that happened to you. I've mentioned no game is a lock and there is never a guarantee in sports wagering. Having said that, I hate using the word but INSANITY comes to mind. Believe me I've been there done that, but using this strategy in the long run I will prove to you that it works. Hang in there pal better days coming.

FESTOON

[SoCal Degen]

No worries here Festoon. It was my own finger that pulled the trigger. Never even watched the game.. went out to a nice dinner to only check the score later that night... Ball St. got destroyed!

[Festoon]

No worries here Festoon. It was my own finger that pulled the trigger. Never even watched the game.. went out to a nice dinner to only check the score later that night... Ball St. got destroyed!

I was actually out myself for a surprise 50th party myself. I did follow the game...agreed they were fortunate to go into the 1st OT...they lost in triple OT, just couldn't get it going (hardly destroyed)... In hindsight I always look back and see if I missed something on that particular play...and guess what I did, something big and I will learn from that. EAST MICHIGAN had played the 6th hardest strength of schedule to date (now sit 4th) something I will keep my eye on, for future plays.. I under estimated them, having seen Ball St. blow out Toledo on the road in last and having their conference home opener, I expected more...It was a decision between them and Buffalo, I made the wrong play.

[SoCal Degen]

11.5 favorite taken into double OT is pretty much "destroyed" in my book. That's like saying Clemson barely one

[Festoon]

11.5 favorite taken into double OT is pretty much "destroyed" in my book. That's like saying Clemson barely one

Will keep it short...I give

[Festoon]

I apologize to anyone who thinks my posts are too long, but a brief explanation of a particular play holds a little more credence. Having crunched the numbers on this play, it will come down to two things. First, VCU's ability to defend against the three, where they rank 6th in the nation at 27% . Though LaSalle only ranks #233 shooting behind the arc, it's a little miss leading. Since returning to the team, junior guard Saul Phiri gives them that threat and VCU will have to shut him down. Secondly, I'm sure the VCU coaching staff have told their team to defend hard, but limit the fouls, where Lasalle is 2nd in the nation from the charity stripe at 80%.
Having said that VCU, should be motivated by the home crowd in their conference home opener and their defense will shut down Lasalle.
Next play and sticking to the game plan and SHOVING ALL IN

VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH RAMS -12.5

ACCOUNT BALANCE: $3520.85

Bet #6 in this thread:

Risking $94.50 (2 units) return $177.66


CURRENT BALANCE: $3426.35

[Festoon]

Well that didnt go as planned...they were asleep the first 15 mns and then turned the D up a notch. Unfortunately, shooting 37% from the field isn't gonna cut it giving up 12.5 points. Anyway I'm over that and on to the next. Not getting into details and I typically don't play these huge spreads, but I'm taking them here. Ante up!

SAN JOSE STATE +27.5

Bet #7: Ante $55.35 (1 unit) return $105.45

BALANCE: $3371

RECORD: 11W-4L-1P

FESTOON

[Festoon]

Well what can I say...first 0-2 day in this forum and finally bit of a slump...1-3 last 4 plays...that's part of the game, but I kept the damage to a minimum.
Did anyone see the last 5-6 mins?...Up 30 and still playing with pace and firing up 3's! That's why I love Hockey, any team that was up 3-4 goals late and kept throwing out their 1st power-paly unit, they'd be a bench clearing brawl...Its called ETIQUETTE...that coach has absolutely no class! It was time for the bench players to play half court offense. If I were SJS's coach they'd be no shaking hands, I'd be right in his face.. Nevada's coach is the type of guy on the golf course when your lining up your birdie putt he walks right over your line..
Had to get that out!!... Back at it tomorrow

RECORD: 11W-5L-P

BALANCE:$3371 (+47 units)

[Festoon]

Thought I'd get my first play in earlier, since I can see this line moving. Though its hard not to be impressed with Citadel's offense and the numbers this high flying circus act puts up. But to me their offensive numbers are a little over inflated taking into account they have scored 524 pts (131 per game) in 4 games vs Div2 like schools. Though I see this as a high scoring game (Over 166) a solid ET squad will expose the Bulldog's inability to play D and rebound. Saying that East Tennessee has been a machine laying the chalk going an impressive 8-1 ATS. Hoping to maybe play a few more hands today as there are numerous games I'm confident in.

BALANCE $3371

EAST TENNESSEE STATE BUCCANEERS -6.5 -115

Bet #8: Risk $100 (2 units) return $188

BALANCE: $3271



RECORD: 11W-6L1-P

[Hman]

Solid work so far

[Hman]

GL tonight

[Festoon]

Solid work so far

Thanks Hman! hoping to pull out of the SLUMP tonight

[Festoon]

Like I said there are numerous games I like tonight... trying to stay disciplined, but having doubled my bankroll I have some room to take advantage of it. Next game up, having crunched all the numbers I see numerous miss matches on both sides of the ball. The team I'm looking at is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road, I'm expecting them to bounce back in their latest loss at home. Their opponents have struggled ATS as dog's with a 1-6 record. Next up:

HOFSTA PRIDE -3 -115

Bet #9 Risk $75 (1.5 units) return $140.25

BALANCE: $3196

[Festoon]

So many games today, love Thursday as much as Saturday. Using my Poker philosophy, I'm gonna be that maniac at the table, play a few more hands and try to be the bully at the table and build my chip stack. Next up... this team has won me numerous pots fading them as they are 1-10 ATS. Being that superstitious guy, the number has been unlucky for me... so it might be worth fading me as I am 0-2 with this line. Ante up!

MURRAY STATE RACERS -12.5 -114

Bet #10 Risk $75 (1.5 units) return $141

BALANCE: $3121

[Festoon]

Lets get into another hand...On paper these 2 teams are very similar, but one has the so called home court advantage as of late. One is 0-5 on the road, the other has won their last 7 contests at home. Plus they hold the over-all edge in their last 10 meetings ATS at 7-3...1-4 last 5. Will hold off on the wager until I see how I make out in the early games, will I just RAISE or PUSH ALL IN

SANTA CLARA BRONCOS -1.5

[Festoon]

EAST TENNESSEE CRUISES: Nice when the write up nails it, worth the capping. So before ante up on Santa Clara, there is a play at 9pm I'm gonna make a RAISE. This is another one of those teams that I have FADED and cashed on plenty of times. I see quite a few miss matches in Montana's favor, and don't have the times to give the details. So next play will be a RAISE...but take back my ante from the ETS game.

MONTANA GRIZZLIES -6

Bet #11 Risk $138 return $259.44

BALANCE: $3171

RECORD 12 W- 6L- 2P

[Festoon]

Damn a push by HOFSTRA could have had them by -2.5 before the game and a winner. Saying that I will use that ANTE and RAISE a UNIT on my Santa Clara play.

SANTA CLARA BRONCOS -1.5 -115

Bet #11 Risk $100 return $187

BALANCE AND UNIT UPDATE LATER

[Festoon]

So many games today, love Thursday as much as Saturday. Using my Poker philosophy, I'm gonna be that maniac at the table, play a few more hands and try to be the bully at the table and build my chip stack. Next up... this team has won me numerous pots fading them as they are 1-10 ATS. Being that superstitious guy, the number has been unlucky for me... so it might be worth fading me as I am 0-2 with this line. Ante up!

MURRAY STATE RACERS -12.5 -114

Bet #10 Risk $75 (1.5 units) return $141

BALANCE: $3121

Chalk up another one in the win column 98-77 MURRAY STATE

Update balance and units later...finally cracked that -12.5 number

[Festoon]

Glad I pulled out my Ante with the previous win... I obviously went to the well to often fading East Washington

Chalk up a loss

[ChocMilk23]

You thought Montana would beat EWU in Cheney? Weak. EWU FOR LIFE!

[Festoon]

You thought Montana would beat EWU in Cheney? Weak. EWU FOR LIFE!

I've faded East Wash for weeks and have made a killing...they were due...that's okay wasn't that confident in that pick

[Festoon]

Well with one play left tonight I will update the account and count my chips.

ORIGINAL BANKROLL: $1000

UPDATED BANKROLL: $3410 (AND ONE IN PLAY) +48 UNITS

RECORD: 13W-7L-2P

[Festoon]

I have to say this, I started another account, using the same POKER TECHNIQUE utilizing my betting style, but instead using SHOOTER'S hockey pick's (just don't have the time to capp both sports). I have to say I'm killing it! All it takes is a good win streak and your on your way. I will have to thank him sometime.

CHA CHING

[Festoon]

Home court holds and chalk up another 67-64 Santa Clara!

ORIGINAL BANKROLL: $1000

NEW BANROLL: $3597 (+52 units)

RECORD 14W-7L-2P

Looking forward to making another PUSH RAISE or ALL-IN tomorrow!

[QuantumLeap]

Home court holds and chalk up another 67-64 Santa Clara!

ORIGINAL BANKROLL: $1000

NEW BANROLL: $3597 (+52 units)

RECORD 14W-7L-2P

Looking forward to making another PUSH RAISE or ALL-IN tomorrow!

I had Santa Clara -2. We got pretty lucky at the end there with Pepperdine fouling the 3-point shot. That long shot at the end also hit iron. Close call.

Looking forward to your picks in the future.

[RCuz921]

Great Job Feston!

Quick question, what do you consider a complete group and if you lose the first game of a group (risk $50) how much is your next play? I get how it works after a win.

Enjoy your posts and good luck.

[sunshine11]

Nice job!

[Hman]

Home court holds and chalk up another 67-64 Santa Clara!

ORIGINAL BANKROLL: $1000

NEW BANROLL: $3597 (+52 units)

RECORD 14W-7L-2P

Looking forward to making another PUSH RAISE or ALL-IN tomorrow!

Solid work