How to predict line movements?

[bettingman6]

One thing you can do is check cover’s page on how much money is on each team.
Anything else you can do?

[Foxx]

I doubt what you linked would be predictive of future line movement. It may explain why the line already moved but that's not too helpful.

[bettingman6]

I doubt what you linked would be predictive of future line movement. It may explain why the line already moved but that's not too helpful.

The Covers page should be somewhat predictive of future line movements if the line hasn’t moved yet.

I wonder if there’s any page out there that only lists the betting totals since the line was last moved.

[jjgold]

Lol


Nobody knows which way a line gonna move

[RudyRuetigger]

pass


very easy to make a smart remark here that most would find funny


but would get me an infraction

[WvGambler]

Lol


Nobody knows which way a line gonna move

You know which way that bald head of yours makes my line move........

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

[gauchojake]

create an accurate model

[Joey Vigs]

[bettingman6]

I'm intrigued at how the Clippers Hawks line isn't moving, even though the Clippers have 80% of the money. Books stand to lose a shitload if the Clippers cover.

Anyway, I have some money on both the Clippers -6.5 and the -265 moneyline.

[JIBBBY]

I'm intrigued at how the Clippers Hawks line isn't moving, even though the Clippers have 80% of the money. Books stand to lose a shitload if the Clippers cover.

Anyway, I have some money on both the Clippers -6.5 and the -265 moneyline.

Clippers are playing back to back but it was an early game yesterday.. I'm leaning Clippers tonight also.. I could see them winning by 10 points or so probably..

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/atlanta-hawks-los-angeles-clippers-2019012812/

[bettingman6]

I am getting rather annoyed at how the Grizzlies Nuggets line isn't moving, even though 70% of the money is on the Nuggets. I'm planning on betting on the Grizzlies. However, I keep waiting in hope that the 6 point line will go even higher.

[danshan11]

I am getting rather annoyed at how the Grizzlies Nuggets line isn't moving, even though 70% of the money is on the Nuggets. I'm planning on betting on the Grizzlies. However, I keep waiting in hope that the 6 point line will go even higher.

why do you think the amount of money on the Nuggets will move the line, sorry just trying to understand the concept here?

[SharpAngles]

Why would you assume covers or any other site has accurate handle numbers? I tend to believe most of that public data is propaganda and have never used any of it to cape games.

[danshan11]

Why would you assume covers or any other site has accurate handle numbers? I tend to believe most of that public data is propaganda and have never used any of it to cape games.

how would you use it if it was true or how in the world can it have any benefit?

[sweethook]

the team that pays more is fav more

[JIBBBY]

Early day media hype moves lines. Public gets swayed easily with big name team hype on prime time.

Injury reports move lines also when they first come out also.

First sign of movement going one way also usually can continue to go in that same direction until game time. Can become the domino effect so to speak.

That's all I got with line movement and what I see.

[KVB]

Build a database and test it.

When I create a line, before the market open, the openers will move toward my line upwards of 80% of the time.

That creates a pool from which we can predict the movement.

But if you want to go the extra step, predicting movement instead of just predicting outcomes you are going to need to develop a relevant database and then use only relevant factors to create you prediction.

I have been accumulating data on this for more than a decade and in decades past have conducted thorough line analysis.

One thing I can tell you, things have changed a bit. What used to occur 55% of the time, like clockwork, has shifted and now other factors work like that.

It is an evolving landscape and it's my belief that SBR and Player's Talk is nowhere near ready for this kind of analysis.

[danshan11]

so for example you got 100000 records
and the line moved (avgs) from -105 to -120 (54.5%) on those 100,000 records and the team won at at 56% that would mean something to someone because to me that looks like noise. I bet if you took those same 100,000 records and split it up into days of the week or odd or even days you would see that data is pure noise. So again assuming the above scenario is real 56% win rate at an avg line of 54.5% over 100,000 records does that mean anything?

[clip1]

so how would you bet this line?

nuggets opened 208.5 now the line is 206.5

is public betting the line under or the books want you to take over?

[danshan11]

so how would you bet this line?

nuggets opened 208.5 now the line is 206.5

is public betting the line under or the books want you to take over?

I would only bet that line if I thought it was wrong and it would not have anything to do with what a book wants me to do and I really honestly would never ever care what the public is betting.
Why do you think those 2 facts matter in anyway?

that line moved for one or two reasons
1 the model they put it up at was wrong
2 a player injury caused that line to move

[danshan11]

Like the Magic total for tomorrow its right now at 221.5, I think that line will go way up before tipoff,

but most people who see it right now will wait till limits go up late tonight at some books and early tomorrow am before 10 ET and then it will start moving

[bettingman6]

Build a database and test it.

When I create a line, before the market open, the openers will move toward my line upwards of 80% of the time.

That creates a pool from which we can predict the movement.

But if you want to go the extra step, predicting movement instead of just predicting outcomes you are going to need to develop a relevant database and then use only relevant factors to create you prediction.

I have been accumulating data on this for more than a decade and in decades past have conducted thorough line analysis.

One thing I can tell you, things have changed a bit. What used to occur 55% of the time, like clockwork, has shifted and now other factors work like that.

It is an evolving landscape and it's my belief that SBR and Player's Talk is nowhere near ready for this kind of analysis.

You’re FOS. The best bettors can only win their bets about 56% of the time. And they’d probably be able to accurately predict line movement no more than about 52% of the time. Seriously predicting line movement is even harder than beating the vig is.

[bettingman6]

why do you think the amount of money on the Nuggets will move the line, sorry just trying to understand the concept here?

The book should want to balance the betting between the 2 sides in order to minimize the book’s risk. Therefore, books should move the line toward the team that’s getting less bets.

[vinnykal2323]

its expensive, but Sports Insights has a line prediction tool for sides only. it doesnt work for totals

[reigle9]

i find this easy in cfb, and i mean it

i talk a lot of shit just for shits on here, but hitting cfb lines on openers for a fg spread is the easiest thing in the world...still have to be on the correct side, beating the line isnt an auto-winner

[danshan11]

The book should want to balance the betting between the 2 sides in order to minimize the book’s risk. Therefore, books should move the line toward the team that’s getting less bets.

Books cant balance action most of the time without creating risk for middles or getting pounded on a soft line. If pinny thinks the line is sharp they will ride it out even if that puts them really heavy on one side

[KVB]

You’re FOS. The best bettors can only win their bets about 56% of the time. And they’d probably be able to accurately predict line movement no more than about 52% of the time. Seriously predicting line movement is even harder than beating the vig is.

I'm not sure you understood what I wrote.

I not only disagree with your 52% number, I stand by mine.

This happened years ago, so I started posting plays and forecasts, keeping the closing line performance tracked as well. 1000 plays later, I've actually had to stop posting two Funds (CFL and NCAAB ATS/ML) because of how well they were beating the closing line.

But remember, there is a difference between having the vast majority of lines move toward a forecast and actually predicting line movements, even though the first sort of does "predict" line movement in a broad sense.

If you follow what I wrote, and can identify what information is both available and relevant, you would see that some circumstances do offer a reasonable probability of movement in a anticipated direction. That doesn't mean every line out there can be predicted.

What about predicting that a line won't move? Does that count? There is betting value in that type of information, but like I said, that landscape shifts.

There are as many ways to handicap as there are handicappers, but it's true that some are playing checkers while others are playing chess.

[KVB]

i find this easy in cfb, and i mean it

i talk a lot of shit just for shits on here, but hitting cfb lines on openers for a fg spread is the easiest thing in the world...still have to be on the correct side, beating the line isnt an auto-winner

lol, can't give reigle points.

Why the timeout?

[gauchojake]

lol, can't give reigle points.

Why the timeout?

Pretty sure he was hammered at about 8 am Pacific

Anyways I think that the posters of players talk are ready to talk about models but only in daggles left or right polls

[DJK]

One thing you can do is check cover’s page on how much money is on each team.
Anything else you can do?

When you said "cover's page", are you referring to www.covers.com and if yes then where on that site do you see how much money is bet on each team? I couldn't see it anywhere there.

I see the consensus bet amount on SBR, but I heard it's only for 5Dimes only.

[DJK]

I am getting rather annoyed at how the Grizzlies Nuggets line isn't moving, even though 70% of the money is on the Nuggets. I'm planning on betting on the Grizzlies. However, I keep waiting in hope that the 6 point line will go even higher.

Well, seeing how the Nuggets lost ATS winning by only 3 at 95-92 when the line was -5.5, I would say the books were pretty confident that the Grizzlies would cover and didn't want to move the line up to draw more Grizzlies bets. No?

Someone posted that the books gamble too and will side with a team by not further adjusting the spread even if the money bet is lop-sided on one side and maybe it was true in this case?

[gauchojake]

When you said "cover's page", are you referring to www.covers.com and if yes then where on that site do you see how much money is bet on each team? I couldn't see it anywhere there.

I see the consensus bet amount on SBR, but I heard it's only for 5Dimes only.

most consensus numbers give you tickets not dollars. i want to say that at some point covers consensus numbers were based on their contests only. not sure if they use a service now or aggregate numbers from multiple sources.

[RangeFinder]

I can chart movements and get a feel if the number is overplayed. I think it takes years of doing it to get a good grasp. Even then, it's difficult. But beating the closing line will help your bottom line long term.

[Bostongambler]

I can chart movements and get a feel if the number is overplayed. I think it takes years of doing it to get a good grasp. Even then, it's difficult. But beating the closing line will help your bottom line long term.

Glen, Glen, stop it now. Please

[danshan11]

I can chart movements and get a feel if the number is overplayed. I think it takes years of doing it to get a good grasp. Even then, it's difficult. But beating the closing line will help your bottom line long term.

all you talk about is beating the closing line!