Can you help me predict better?

[drooller]

Hey ppl!

I am new around here, but I really want to get some of your knowledge about betting and work of bookies. I am also new to betting, but a big fan of computers and mathematics. To which extent is it possible to predict the future in such a specific aspect as sports and soccer?

Firing up big mathematical machine by supplying it lots of data about soccer I have managed to create very simplistic algorithm that calculates relative team's strength and compares it with opponent's to determine who would win.

I have managed to make it show results of it work by writing something like that
Team A - Team B
Team A wins: xx%
even: xx%
Team B wins: xx%

Can this be interesting for somebody or I am doing pointless work? May be I can develop some additional features? What do you think about it?

[MC PICKS]

[SlickFazzer]

Follow all the pro gamblers here at SBR.

[cincinnatikid513]

i'm sure vegas dave would be interested in your mathematical machine

[drooller]

Never heard about Vegas Dave. Let my journey to betting and gambling begin. Thanks!

[MC PICKS]

Never heard about Vegas Dave. Let my journey to betting and gambling begin. Thanks!

Good cause you don't wanna know him. If you're a numbers guy you don't predict shit. Good luck.

[Gaze73]

Look up any website with free predictions, they are all math based and for some reason they all suck. E.g. home team goal stats are 24:18, road team is 20:22, and yet for some god damn reason the predictor says it will end 3-0, even though the home team didn't win 3-0 a single time in the past 20 games, and the road team didn't lose 3-0 in 20 games. I've never seen a predictor that would have any degree of accuracy.

[Philmill]

Long storey short.... find the team thats playing in the top of there league... this year in NFL it was New England, this year in NHL it was Tampa Bay, last year in MLB it was the Red Soxs, follow the top and bet them in good spots or very game if they cant loose....You can even add your math system to it.... very gambler has their own system....so find yours....
GL

[jjgold]

waste of time
no systems work


everything factored into the lines

[SlickFazzer]

Only bet 1 game a week.

Better ways to make money in this world.

[Bostongambler]

Flip a coin

[eaglesfan371]

I would advise to post in the "think tank" section of this forum. The quants and people who use models live in there. You will not find good advice here in player's talk for modelling.

[Philmill]

I would advise to post in the "think tank" section of this forum. The quants and people who use models live in there. You will not find good advice here in player's talk for modelling.

good advice eagles....

[2daBank]

I have a magic quarter that works at least half the time! You seem like a nice guy, I could sell it to ya for a reasonable price. Let me know, I have a lot of offers.

[JIBBBY]

Fade all the pro gamblers here at SBR.

Fixed

Look and follow team and player trends it usually works out for me. Not always though..

[2daBank]

Fixed

Look and follow team and player trends it usually works out for me. Not always though..

Would you like to buy one my magic quarters? 50% of the time it works all the time!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, u came to the right place. Full-proof predictions.

Only issue is that u may need to make a 2nd trip to the cage w/ your wheel-barrow, b/c one trip won't be able to carry all the sheckles.

[drooller]

Thanks for all the replies! It gave me a good starting point.

[danshan11]

winning is simple you need to do 2 things
1 create a fair line that over a decent sample size is very close to the closing line
2 find enough games to overcome the possibility of a variance

[eaglesfan371]

winning is simple you need to do 2 things
1 create a fair line that over a decent sample size is very close to the closing line
2 find enough games to overcome the possibility of a variance

You forgot to backtest your model and assumptions to ensure they are +EV. Just having a model that is near closing lines does nothing. You could be on the opposite side of +EV and be even more -EV.

[danshan11]

You forgot to backtest your model and assumptions to ensure they are +EV. Just having a model that is near closing lines does nothing. You could be on the opposite side of +EV and be even more -EV.

you cannot be -EV if you can accurately predict what the closing lines will be at a high rate.

if you got Yankees -150 and the current line bet at line is -120, you would expect with an accurate model that the line will go towards that -150 since we are assuming you created a fair line with good modeling, you also need to make sure it moves enough to cover the jugo! the question is can you do this accurately enough to overcome the very hungry variance monster?

you cannot backtest your probability of past events trying to create a fair line!