UFC 240 best bets: Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar 👊
UFC 240 best bets: Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar will challenge current featherweight champion Max Holloway for the featherweight title. Collectively, they have fought in 12 UFC title bouts to date, and each will add one more championship appearance on Saturday.
So who to bet on in this five-rounder between legends? Here's a breakdown.
Featherweight title matchup: Champion Max Holloway(-380) vs. No. 4 Frankie Edgar (+300)
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Edgar made his reputation fighting -- and beating -- larger fighters throughout his years at lightweight. Not only has he won, but he's defended the lightweight title on multiple occasions. Now fighting at featherweight, most assume Edgar to be closer to his natural weight class. Yet, he'll still be out-ranged when he faces Holloway.
The Hawaiian champion may have been underrated even as he made his UFC title run, but fans and betting markets now recognize the wiry featherweight to be one of the best ever to compete in the division. Despite Edgar's success in a larger division, Holloway is likely to close at more than 4-to-1 odds come fight night. The last time Edgar was that big of an underdog in the UFC was in 2010, when got his first ever title shot against then-champ BJ Penn.
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When we compare the two in standing metrics, we can see a glaring advantage for the incumbent champ. Holloway is one of the most precise high-volume strikers in UFC history, and he will have a significant offensive striking advantage over Edgar's busy, but often ineffective, boxing. Holloway has shown that despite the lack of flashy one-punch power, the cumulative effect of his strikes can stop even elite-level opponents, as has occurred in all four of his featherweight title appearances so far.
The wild cards here are Edgar's scrappy durability and his wrestling base. When he's mounted a successful wrestling offense, he's been able to stifle the striking threat of opponents. The shocking stat here, however, is that Edgar has only landed one takedown in his past three fights, dating back over two years. He would need to significantly alter his game plan to become wrestling-centric, as well as get past Holloway's crafty take-down defense in order to pull the upset. Edgar's lengthy layoff, and 10-year age disadvantage, make that an even harder hill to climb.
E+ recommends: Holloway ML -380, or even at steeper odds.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar will challenge current featherweight champion Max Holloway for the featherweight title. Collectively, they have fought in 12 UFC title bouts to date, and each will add one more championship appearance on Saturday.
So who to bet on in this five-rounder between legends? Here's a breakdown.
Featherweight title matchup: Champion Max Holloway(-380) vs. No. 4 Frankie Edgar (+300)
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 811px; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; white-space: normal;">Tale Of The Tape
| Last Fight Weight Class | Lightweight | Featherweight |
| Current Age | 27 | 37 |
| Height | 71.0 | 66.0 |
| Reach | 70.0 | 68.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Analyzed Minutes | 261 | 408 |
| Standup striking offense | ||
| Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) | 8:0 | 3:6 |
| Distance Knockdown Rate | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Head Jab Accuracy | 31% | 22% |
| Head Power Accuracy | 41% | 26% |
| Total Standup Strike Ratio | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total Head Strike Defense | 72% | 77% |
| Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") | 100% | 99% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.03 | 0.64 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 83% | 34% |
| Advances per Takedown/Top Control | 3.6 | 0.7 |
| Opponent Takedown Attempts | 115 | 64 |
| Takedown Defense | 83% | 66% |
| Share of Total Ground Time in Control | 43% | 87% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.33 | 0.11 |
Edgar made his reputation fighting -- and beating -- larger fighters throughout his years at lightweight. Not only has he won, but he's defended the lightweight title on multiple occasions. Now fighting at featherweight, most assume Edgar to be closer to his natural weight class. Yet, he'll still be out-ranged when he faces Holloway.
The Hawaiian champion may have been underrated even as he made his UFC title run, but fans and betting markets now recognize the wiry featherweight to be one of the best ever to compete in the division. Despite Edgar's success in a larger division, Holloway is likely to close at more than 4-to-1 odds come fight night. The last time Edgar was that big of an underdog in the UFC was in 2010, when got his first ever title shot against then-champ BJ Penn.
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When we compare the two in standing metrics, we can see a glaring advantage for the incumbent champ. Holloway is one of the most precise high-volume strikers in UFC history, and he will have a significant offensive striking advantage over Edgar's busy, but often ineffective, boxing. Holloway has shown that despite the lack of flashy one-punch power, the cumulative effect of his strikes can stop even elite-level opponents, as has occurred in all four of his featherweight title appearances so far.
The wild cards here are Edgar's scrappy durability and his wrestling base. When he's mounted a successful wrestling offense, he's been able to stifle the striking threat of opponents. The shocking stat here, however, is that Edgar has only landed one takedown in his past three fights, dating back over two years. He would need to significantly alter his game plan to become wrestling-centric, as well as get past Holloway's crafty take-down defense in order to pull the upset. Edgar's lengthy layoff, and 10-year age disadvantage, make that an even harder hill to climb.
E+ recommends: Holloway ML -380, or even at steeper odds.
