Is lt profits the best capper at sbr?

**KVB** · 08-03-19, 05:22 PM

Everyone so concerned with maximizing profit or minimizing loss yet throwing so much away in extra vig is totally ignored.

The order if wins and losses won’t matter.

It’s about changing the break even point, the long term point.

Originally posted by KVB

...I’ve posted over and over again that changing you bet size is equivalent to progressive betting and it is costly.

Let’s keep it simple and get back to basics. Take a set of 21 bets; give yourself 11 wins and 10 losses. Now take any starting bankroll amount. To keep it simple, bet 5.5% to win 5% for each bet and put the wins and losses in any order you desire. After each bet, win or lose, adjust the next bet to 5.5% of the new bankroll, just like Gunshard says.

Now, if you didn’t change the size of your bets, 52.4%, or 11 wins and 10 losses would result in breaking even.

But Gunshard’s plan requires changing the size of your bets after each play, changing the breakeven point. How much it changes depends on the percentage bet, but the higher the percentage, the worse off you are. With my example, of 5.5%, the breakeven point nears 54%.

Gunshard should be thankful for discount books and vigorish, if he uses them, as his strategy raised his breakeven point, which was offset by the reduced vig.

Again, the percentage doesn’t matter; it’s easier to use 5.5% for this exercise than Gunshard’s recommended 5%, but the results are along the same lines.

Try it again and again. No matter what order you place your 11 wins and 10 losses, after those 21 bets, you always have 97.1% of your roll left.

In fact, after 110 wins and 100 losses with 5.5% bet each time, you would be down somewhere in the neighborhood of 25% of your starting bankroll...

It’s the nature of sports betting and vigorish.

It matters.

**LT Profits** · 08-03-19, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Everyone so concerned with maximizing profit or minimizing loss.

Because that is all that matters.

**pavyracer** · 08-03-19, 07:22 PM

LT it's OK to admit your model is flawed this year and this is why you are losing a ton. A sharp gambler would adjust the model to his advantage instead of relying on past years stale stats.

**LT Profits** · 08-03-19, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

LT it's OK to admit your model is flawed this year and this is why you are losing a ton. A sharp gambler would adjust the model to his advantage instead of relying on past years stale stats.

Except I am not losing a "ton" and there is still time to finish in the black. And totals are still up double-digits.

"

**pavyracer** · 08-03-19, 08:22 PM

With $500 unit bets you are down 18 units. My question is why do you keep betting sides if totals are your forte. Obviously your model can predict totals but not sides. I pointed out the anomaly 2 months ago but you keep betting sides. Why?

**LT Profits** · 08-03-19, 09:09 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

With $500 unit bets you are down 18 units. My question is why do you keep betting sides if totals are your forte. Obviously your model can predict totals but not sides. I pointed out the anomaly 2 months ago but you keep betting sides. Why?

Again, sides are only down because faves are hitting at a historical rate. I am willing to bet that will not continue, and things have already stated to shift this week.

**KVB** · 08-04-19, 12:33 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Because that is all that matters.

Finish my quote though...

Originally posted by KVB

Everyone so concerned with maximizing profit or minimizing loss yet throwing so much away in extra vig is totally ignored...

If it really matters then why not add minimizing the vig and protecting the breakeven point as well?

My point in that phrase is that many really aren't maximizing even though they think they are.

But like I said, you really have to test it. Some programs end up with prices close to even money or very low and it doesn't make much difference.

It's about testing and finding that happy medium, the balance.

I think you could be short changing yourself LT with the volatility of your risk.

**thomorino** · 08-04-19, 01:52 AM

Betting is about value, if you get value consistently in the short and intermediate term you will win long-term, which is why it's stupid to come in to any season on any sport looking to just bet favorites or half the market. The bottom of the league in mlb is trash that's why favorites have been such a good bet, the market hasn't priced the worse teams in the league correctly for 3 months, and when you find a winning angle in markets you don't sit around waiting for it to go away you hit it until it goes away.The reality is that many people look to bet on plus money teams that they've missed the obvious value on favorites, there no reason to not keep betting that angle simply because someone might think markets could become more efficient at some time.

**unde0087** · 08-04-19, 02:34 AM

I try

**LT Profits** · 08-04-19, 05:53 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Finish my quote though...

If it really matters then why not add minimizing the vig and protecting the breakeven point as well?

My point in that phrase is that many really aren't maximizing even though they think they are.

But like I said, you really have to test it. Some programs end up with prices close to even money or very low and it doesn't make much difference.

It's about testing and finding that happy medium, the balance.

I think you could be short changing yourself LT with the volatility of your risk.

The two go hand and hand, but it seems you are prioritizing the wrong component. The ultimate goal is to win, and if the reason you are paying more vig on one game due to a slightly increased bet during a winning streak, so be it. And notice I said "slightly", at 2.5%, it is not as if you are varying your bet wildly from day to day,

**LT Profits** · 08-04-19, 05:59 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

Betting is about value, if you get value consistently in the short and intermediate term you will win long-term, which is why it's stupid to come in to any season on any sport looking to just bet favorites or half the market. The bottom of the league in mlb is trash that's why favorites have been such a good bet, the market hasn't priced the worse teams in the league correctly for 3 months, and when you find a winning angle in markets you don't sit around waiting for it to go away you hit it until it goes away.The reality is that many people look to bet on plus money teams that they've missed the obvious value on favorites, there no reason to not keep betting that angle simply because someone might think markets could become more efficient at some time.

This is actually a sharp post except that I personally never lay more than -150 on anything on any sport. That is just a personal preference and I agree that value favorites do exist. It is just that my volume is already high enough without adding more plays with a reduced Risk/Reward. That approach works for me, MLB is only sport I have struggled in this year.

**jjgold** · 08-04-19, 06:01 AM

A lot of good came out of thread

**BeatTheJerk** · 08-04-19, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

Betting is about value, if you get value consistently in the short and intermediate term you will win long-term, which is why it's stupid to come in to any season on any sport looking to just bet favorites or half the market. The bottom of the league in mlb is trash that's why favorites have been such a good bet, the market hasn't priced the worse teams in the league correctly for 3 months, and when you find a winning angle in markets you don't sit around waiting for it to go away you hit it until it goes away.The reality is that many people look to bet on plus money teams that they've missed the obvious value on favorites, there no reason to not keep betting that angle simply because someone might think markets could become more efficient at some time.

All valid points.

**sosawestbrook** · 08-04-19, 07:05 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

Betting is about value, if you get value consistently in the short and intermediate term you will win long-term, which is why it's stupid to come in to any season on any sport looking to just bet favorites or half the market. The bottom of the league in mlb is trash that's why favorites have been such a good bet, the market hasn't priced the worse teams in the league correctly for 3 months, and when you find a winning angle in markets you don't sit around waiting for it to go away you hit it until it goes away.The reality is that many people look to bet on plus money teams that they've missed the obvious value on favorites, there no reason to not keep betting that angle simply because someone might think markets could become more efficient at some time.

**Cuse0323** · 08-04-19, 07:12 AM

Good conversation here.

**KVB** · 08-04-19, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by Cuse0323

Good conversation here.

Yeah.

Oncer you realize I'm just suggesting that LT run some tests, and actually for an gambler to do just that and see how their business can be affected.

Or for those not taking the business approach, just how the bottom line can be affected, whether it's winning more or losing less.

This did become a good discussion.

Much respect to LT, as always.

**jjgold** · 08-04-19, 03:12 PM

LT very technical

He is by far the best all around capper sbr

**pavyracer** · 08-04-19, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

LT very technical

He is by far the best all around capper sbr

How come you never tail his picks? You never cash at books even when you are tailing the best capper at SBR.

**KVB** · 08-04-19, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

LT very technical

He is by far the best all around capper sbr

He has put in the time and the work and has the longevity to show for it.

SBR is lucky to have a few cappers here taking different approaches to the market and humbly sharing much of that work after getting their numbers, answering questions, and providing info on a daily basis.

**inmyownzone** · 08-04-19, 03:53 PM

Much respect for lt

**JacketFan81** · 08-04-19, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

There is no "best 'capper" at SBR. Only a bunch of really bad ones.

Led by this absolute penetrating assclown

**jjgold** · 08-04-19, 04:06 PM

KVB in second as of now

If he gets me nudes of his wife maybe I can change rankings

**KVB** · 08-04-19, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

KVB in second as of now

If he gets me nudes of his wife maybe I can change rankings

What about a Santa Monica ice cream date? Would that garner any influence?

**jjgold** · 08-04-19, 07:40 PM

Anything

**pdprodigy** · 09-15-19, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Progressive betting schemes, which is what a flat percentage of a daily bankroll actually is, are not very good for sports betting.

The rare instances of fractional Kelly betting can make be a bright side in this, but really that's no what we're talking about here.

As LT wins, be bets more immediately. That is progressive betting whether one realizes it or not.

I can win 9 straight 1 dollar bets then lose the 10 bet, for $10 dollars and have nothing to show for it.

Gambling 101.

My point is that there is a cost to the bottom line in vigorish and it's easy to increase that cost just by money management.

Can you please suggest a better scheme?

**RudyRuetigger** · 09-15-19, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by pdprodigy

Can you please suggest a better scheme?

i cant wait to hear his answer

**jjgold** · 09-15-19, 02:36 PM

Top 10

**pdprodigy** · 09-16-19, 03:00 PM

Post deleted

**pdprodigy** · 09-17-19, 12:04 PM

Hugh morris seems pretty good.where does he rank?