Why Are The Phillies Favorites Today?

**2daBank** · 08-28-19, 02:14 PM

I sure don’t trust Phils starter. Seems like he always has a inning where he unravels.

**Fingernail** · 08-28-19, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

I sure don’t trust Phils starter. Seems like he always has a inning where he unravels.

Over the better choice?

**2daBank** · 08-28-19, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by Fingernail

Over the better choice?

Havnt really looked at it yet. For the most part only been following a few teams recently. I cut way back on bases this time of the year. I’ll take a quick look.

**jtoler** · 08-28-19, 02:21 PM

phils pitcher era 2 runs lower why arnt phils bigger favs? oh harper playing

**2daBank** · 08-28-19, 02:21 PM

Who the hell this Alex Tosi guy calling balls and strikes in the Phils game? I don’t even have him listed in my notebook. lol

**jjgold** · 08-28-19, 02:21 PM

Stop man a 162 games a year
Anything can happen any game no lines are right or wrong I hope you guessed right

**2daBank** · 08-28-19, 02:24 PM

Originally posted by jtoler

phils pitcher era 2 runs lower why arnt phils bigger favs? oh harper playing

Era of a 23 year old w only a handful of starts don’t mean much. Kid striking out almost 11 per 9 and did so in minors all season as well. Clearly has good stuff, avg fastball over 95mph. His hard hit rate a good 10%ish lower than Vasquez.

**2daBank** · 08-28-19, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by Fingernail

Over the better choice?

I wouldn’t play over. You probably got the right idea w pirates. Gl if you play it.

**Fingernail** · 08-28-19, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

I wouldn’t play over. You probably got the right idea w pirates. Gl if you play it.

Have you seen Keller throw?

I don’t bet Unders. Unders can lose in the first inning, Overs always have a chance...

True in all sports. Overs and Unders

**2daBank** · 08-28-19, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by Fingernail

Have you seen Keller throw?

I don’t bet Unders. Unders can lose in the first inning, Overs always have a chance...

True in all sports. Overs and Unders

Lol. That one way to look at it I suppose. I’ve always had more success w unders in pretty much every sport myself. Just easier for me to pick out lower scoring games I guess. Although I have drastically changed that approach in nfl and college fb the last 5+ years cause I got killed playing unders back when they started shifting everything to offense.

Far as Keller, no I havnt seen. Just going off numbers.

**sweethook** · 08-28-19, 02:46 PM

if you like it parlay it with a good dog like sd or tor chc , gl

**leetreaper** · 08-28-19, 02:49 PM

Love these rookies, Phi is a top play today, they lost last game, Vince got rocked last game(on the faken road), not gonna happen tonight at home.

Learn from the best fish, adapt or die.

Cheers, L33T!

**2daBank** · 08-28-19, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

Love these rookies, Phi is a top play today, they lost last game, Vince got rocked last game(on the faken road), not gonna happen tonight at home.

Learn from the best fish, adapt or die.

Cheers, L33T!

I honestly don’t see much reason to love Philly tonight. It not like they some great team you can trust to bounce back. I’m not playing it either way tho so gl:

**leetreaper** · 08-28-19, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

I honestly don’t see much reason to love Philly tonight. It not like they some great team you can trust to bounce back. I’m not playing it either way tho so gl:

Banker, that's fine but I believe that the best play on the board tonight, respect!

**2daBank** · 08-28-19, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

Banker, that's fine but I believe that the best play on the board tonight, respect!

Hope you hit it brother.

**KVB** · 08-28-19, 03:04 PM

For what it's worth I have Philly winning outright, by percentages that equate to about a run in this situation.

Since you tend to look at shorter term it's fair to disclose that over the last 100 plays, the raw forecast in this situation is down about -7.5 units although it is still up about +5 units over the last 200 plays.

Bets seem to be on Philly too, but that's no doubt partly due to a combo of Pit sucking ass and Philly still being a bit of a public ride.

Good Luck today.

**2daBank** · 08-28-19, 03:05 PM

Strikeout props might be interesting in this game. I never play those, just a thought.

**leetreaper** · 08-28-19, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by KVB

For what it's worth I have Philly winning outright, by percentages that equate to about a run in this situation.

Since you tend to look at shorter term it's fair to disclose that over the last 100 plays, the raw forecast in this situation is down about -7.5 units although it is still up about +5 units over the last 200 plays.

Bets seem to be on Philly too, but that's no doubt partly due to a combo of Pit sucking ass and Philly still being a bit of a public ride.

Good Luck today.

Yeah its just a combination of being rocked on the road then regroup after a loss at home with motivation for playoffs, line should be -180 IMHO...

It doesn't guarantee it wins but u get the point

**2daBank** · 08-28-19, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

Yeah its just a combination of being rocked on the road then regroup after a loss at home with motivation for playoffs, line should be -180 IMHO...

It doesn't guarantee it wins but u get the point

Motivation a tricky thing. I honestly think it does harm as often as it helpful.

**leetreaper** · 08-28-19, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Motivation a tricky thing. I honestly think it does harm as often as it helpful.

I think u misinterpret it with a MUST win game, this is just a bunch of "little" things together, should be good

**KVB** · 08-28-19, 04:22 PM

I know I posted earlier why I thought Phillies were favored in the marketplace, but after adjustments, the Contrarian Fund found value...

Originally posted by KVB

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

953

28-Aug

PIT +137

...

Good Luck.

And L33t, while I'm glad one of us will hit, in the mud you go...

**leetreaper** · 08-28-19, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I know I posted earlier why I thought Phillies were favored in the marketplace, but after adjustments, the Contrarian Fund found value...

Good Luck.

And L33t, while I'm glad one of us will hit, in the mud you go...

I dont mind the mud with those two but whats your reasoning for this contrarian???

**ronald** · 08-28-19, 04:37 PM

Likely due to the REVENGE factor

**leetreaper** · 08-28-19, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by ronald

Likely due to the REVENGE factor

Ronald lol... no offence to you sir but this is a first post i see from you related to sports(unlike sexual preferences), cant take it seriously bud but hey, if u wanna win, kudos !

**Sam Odom** · 08-28-19, 04:45 PM

just for the Record... Ronnie doesn't do anal

**inmyownzone** · 08-28-19, 04:46 PM

**Sam Odom** · 08-28-19, 04:46 PM

If one must bet this game

find a Prop

**leetreaper** · 08-28-19, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

just for the Record... Ronnie doesn't do anal

Does that help capping Sammy or...??? Not that i wanna know but jeez...

**mike tyson35** · 08-28-19, 04:47 PM

Phillies roll !!! More desperate team 2 win

**Sam Odom** · 08-28-19, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

Does that help capping Sammy or...??? Not that i wanna know but jeez...

**KVB** · 08-28-19, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

I dont mind the mud with those two but whats your reasoning for this contrarian???

This one is pretty straightforward. Like we're saying, public on Philly and it was enough to push it past +135. I have enough relative volume from my reports and sources. The one point raw forecast was adjusted downward a little as well. Once the threshold of volume was hit and nothing really changed, value was found. I think I could have waited and even picked up +140, but it'snot necessary, +135 was good enough.

Also, I can identify what I consider RLM caused by what I consider fairly sharp trades. Regardless of the trades, the slight RLM in some noteworthy corners exist.

That's one of the most straightforward ways the Fund works, but there are a few others, this game follows the above though.

**leetreaper** · 08-28-19, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by mike tyson35

Phillies roll !!! More desperate team 2 win

Fukk off ghost clown

**MrAllin** · 08-28-19, 05:04 PM

under is 13-2 last 15 games between the phils and pirates

**Fingernail** · 08-28-19, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by KVB

This one is pretty straightforward. Like we're saying, public on Philly and it was enough to push it past +135. I have enough relative volume from my reports and sources. The one point raw forecast was adjusted downward a little as well. Once the threshold of volume was hit and nothing really changed, value was found. I think I could have waited and even picked up +140, but it'snot necessary, +135 was good enough.

Also, I can identify what I consider RLM caused by what I consider fairly sharp trades. Regardless of the trades, the slight RLM in some noteworthy corners exist.

That's one of the most straightforward ways the Fund works, but there are a few others, this game follows the above though.

So, what’s your play?