Is it time to fade the USC Trojans?

[Mac4Lyfe]

They lost their QB last night and their next 5 games is a pretty brutal stretch.

#25 Stanford
at BYU
#14 Utah
At #13 Washington
At #9 Notre Dame

[Eddy Munny]

Holy crap... that's as tough a five game stretch as there is in the nation.

Stanford will be starting their backup quarterback next week too, though.

[KVB]

Thought about an open ML parlay against them, if they beat Stan or BYU, then fuk it.

If we get to Dame, go the other way for profit, depending on the line.

Moneylines might be so bad that the parlay won't grow much though.

[VeggieDog]

They have all week to work with the freshman backup and come up with a game plan that he can manage. It helps that the next game is in L.A. so they don't waste time traveling.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Holy crap... that's as tough a five game stretch as there is in the nation.
Stanford will be starting their backup quarterback next week too, though.

They could lose 2 even 3 out of the next 5. They do get a bye week before ND but if they can somehow win these games, only Oregon really remains.

[jjgold]

Yes
Don’t forget they’re not that good either

[Eddy Munny]

They could lose 2 even 3 out of the next 5. They do get a bye week before ND but if they can somehow win these games, only Oregon really remains.

Could? They're losing those last three for sure... Stanford and BYU are the only winnable two imo.

[gojetsgomoxies]

interesting idea,

i didn't think USC showed much with the freshman backup...... and they lost a stud backup to transfer portal....

really throws a wrench in move to "air raid" offense

[KVB]

Could? They're losing those last three for sure... Stanford and BYU are the only winnable two imo.

That's what I'm thinking, get past those (by USC losing to them) and we have some equity in the open parlay.

[JIBBBY]

Yes over hyped.. Faded late last night in the game with Fresno got lucky. Was a good live bet on Fresno in the second half..

I watched that entire game. USC comes out strong and fades..https://usc.rivals.com/content/football

[KVB]

...USC comes out strong and fades...

Well a season ending injury to your QB tends to slow your roll...

[JIBBBY]

QB going down doesn't help either.. USC has good back ups though.. Still this team can't be trusted as high as they will be ranked.

[stackz125]

JT OUT
Torn ACL

[EasyCover]

Always fade USC with Helton as coach. Urban Meyer will be coach of USC next year.

[krk1030]

Anyone hear anything on Costello

Could be backup vs backup for the Stanford game.

[mtofell]

After a week in the books I think it's time to fade the entire Pac-12 hard. Everyone knows they are inferior from a physicality and talent standpoint. After the games this week I think we can add coaching to that list. Countless flat out terrible decisions and gaffes by coaches.

Perfect example - FIRST play of the game Cristobal for ORE calls a timeout. As in, the ball is kicked off, the teams line up and apparently over the last 6 months he couldn't get a play setup. He needed just a few more minutes I guess.

[KVB]

Anyone hear anything on Costello

Could be backup vs backup for the Stanford game.

He may have a concussion but I don't think it's been announced, I have him listed as questionable at this point.

Was a dirty hit with no penalty....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1167913156380741634

https://watchstadium.com/news/stanford-quarterback-k-j-costello-knocked-out-of-game-on-missed-targeting-call-09-01-2019/

[gauchojake]

The way that Helton managed the end of the game last night was so bad, it was hard to watch. He will be fired before the season is over. The Slovis kid looked good at QB though, but Helton didn't do him any favors.

[JIBBBY]

Always fade USC with Helton as coach. Urban Meyer will be coach of USC next year.

YUP!!! The coaching is clearly the problem at USC.. Gotta bring back Pete Carroll and they won't be blowing second half leads anymore.

[Sam Odom]

Pete Carroll is a Pimp

[JIBBBY]

Pete Carroll is a Pimp

[Sam Odom]

[KVB]

USC looking to open a -3.5 favorite today.

Stanford may qualify for two separate funds, both spread and ml here.

There is no ml out yet but fading USC could be plus money here.

[pavyracer]

Actually this is the time to bet them because the lines will adjust in your favor. This is like stealing from the books. When life gives you lemons you make lemonade.

[RudyRuetigger]

Actually this is the time to bet them because the lines will adjust in your favor. This is like stealing from the books. When life gives you lemons you make lemonade.

lines are adjusted already bro


you dont think books know what we know?

stick to soccer or specifically disney world

where the injuries are make believe

[KVB]

Actually this is the time to bet them because the lines will adjust in your favor. This is like stealing from the books. When life gives you lemons you make lemonade.

Well, ok.

But if you bet USC -3.5 and it goes to 3.

So much for that.

[KVB]

Peppermill in Vegas reporting a pick em open but it could be an initial bad tick.

[pavyracer]

You don't know how good is the back up. How many faded Patriots when Brady was made a starter? A lot. The new kid could be better than the injured QB. He was recruited highly.

[KVB]

You don't know how good is the back up. How many faded Patriots when Brady was made a starter? A lot. The new kid could be better than the injured QB. He was recruited highly.

I make hundreds of plays and that can be noise, to some extent.

Especially with this situation. We see value at +3.5 when we control for the variable of non starting QB.

With Stanford's QB questionable I'm thinking there's no automatic concussion protocol, so he could play.

These fukkers not going to hang a moneyline until things are more clear.

[pavyracer]

Well you said BYU was a steal at +6.5 and Utah defense shut them down. Will see what happens but all you are doing now is a 50% guess AKA as coin flip.

[KVB]

Well you said BYU was a steal at +6.5 and Utah defense shut them down. Will see what happens but all you are doing now is a 50% guess AKA as coin flip.

There's a big difference between picking the play I think will win that day and taking value over time in the market.

I am value investing here.

According to the early season numbers, repeatable year after year, BYU was a steal at 6.5 and no matter the result of the game on the field, that won't ever change.

The market agreed as it pushed onto the 6 and then through it, landing on 5.

It is wrong to judge the value of a bet after the fact.

It also shows that you are witnessing the difference between a long term winner and those who are trying to win the next bet.

A winning play to me has an advantage over the market, it doesn't really matter what happens in the very next game played.

Many others are caught up in the noise.

Good Luck Pavy.

[BigdaddyQH]

I posted this back in March of this year. If you idiots could read, you would know that you guys are so far behind the curve when it comes to football that you can not even see the road. KVB, you Chicken S**t. What is this "we" crap when you are talking USC Football. Say that you are a USC grad and I will personally find you and beat the crap out of you, you lying worthless F**k up. Here is the thread that I posted.


"Will Clay Helton Survive September?

The answer is probably no. USC has a brutal September schedule, and the bye week before the game at Notre Dame is the perfect time to make a mid-season head coaching change. Remember, AD Lynn Swan is not in good standing with the alum, and his job most likely is at stake if USC has another sub-par season. Swan will become desperate to try and save his job and a mid-season change is the most likely way to do so.

So let's take a look at the first 5 games that USC plays. Helton MUST go 3-2 to save his job. Anything under .500 means the end for him. USC leads off at home against Fresno State. This is a must win for USC. Fresno State had a very solid 2018, going 12-2, but they do lose 7 offensive starters including their QB on offense and 6 starters on defense. This is certainly no gimme for USC. Next comes a very tough Pac 12 home opener against Stanford, who loses RB Bryce Love but returns 7 starters on each side of the ball, including QB K.J. Costello. Week 3 sees USC travel to BYU for their first road test of the year. The Cougars lose QB Tannher Magnum but return 8 starters on offense. The defense loses their starting LB corps. Next comes defending Pac 12 South Champs Utah, at the Coliseum. This team returns 14 starters from last season. Finally, a trip to Seattle to play Washington, the defending Pac 12 Champs. Washington loses most of it's 2018 starting offense.

So that is the early schedule Helton is looking at. Obviously USC will be a big dog at UDub. That means that they must win 3 games out of their first four. Fresno State and BUY become must games, and Helton must defeat either Stanford or Utah at home. If Helton starts out with 3 conferences losses, he is finished. The perfect time for Swan to make a change is the off week before the game at South Bend. The new "interim" head coach gets an extra week of practice and plays game 1 against a team that will be a 14-19 point favorite at home to defeat USC. That is about as easy as it gets for a new head coach. Talk about no pressure. In the mean time, USC will have a lot of time to look for a new head coach. There have been 27 head coaching changes for 2019 so far. A lot of big names are unemployed now. A long shot to replace Helton and whoever is the "interim" head coach in 2020 is Memphis Head Coach Mike Norvell."

Remember, this was posted in March. Now, after one game and an injury to their starting QB, you guys finally catch on? And you wonder why you guys are the laughing stock pf posters everywhere.

[Mac4Lyfe]

BigDaddy... Most of us were betting basketball in March. Some of us have a fukking life. I wasn't reading that shit above in March. I can barely read it now.

[KVB]

Well you said BYU was a steal at +6.5 and Utah defense shut them down…

...I am value investing here.

According to the early season numbers, repeatable year after year, BYU was a steal at 6.5 and no matter the result of the game on the field, that won't ever change.

The market agreed as it pushed onto the 6 and then through it, landing on 5...

...We see value at +3.5 when we control for the variable of non starting QB...

Here we are again, Pavy. This time we have some real movement here. We’ve gone onto and off of 3, 2 and then onto 1. These are pretty significant moves here. It hasn’t closed yet, of course, but this game could be a pick em before you know it.

Actually this is the time to bet them because the lines will adjust in your favor. This is like stealing from the books. When life gives you lemons you make lemonade.

lines are adjusted already bro

you dont think books know what we know?...

The lines are adjusting this week and this is where you might be able to “steal from the books” as “the lines adjust in your favor.” You can pick up USC at -1, if USC is your pleasure. But how will you truly know if the adjustment has gone to your favor without a reliable forecast?

If the books know, then you might have to concede that they did this on purpose and could be trying to pick up steam on the way down. It’s what I would do if I wanted to take a position. It's true that the books didn't even play the opener safe at USC -3, they chose 3.5.

Something else I would do if I wanted to initiate that position.

[Mike Huntertz]

lmfao!