arie1985's Horse Racing Thread (Starting October 2019)

[arie1985]

My thread is about laying horses, only my goal is to make bets with extremely low exposure and risk, i.e. bet on horses who are "guaranteed" not to win the race. For that I risk a lot (€6,000) for small gains in return (e.g. €10-€20). The difference between this and say rolling the dice 100 times is that horse racing is a real competition, not something computerized - so if you do it "right" all the times - you should potentially be in profit - however it does require lots of patience and bets must be placed only when you are 100% comfortable to place them.

I made a similar post in the past about laying horses with extremely high prices - I tested this strategy over the past few years, it does seem to work but I'd say the BetFair market "knows" better which horses are performing extremely bad and which ones are worth taking a shot. I've seen horses that get 150 to 1 who have 100 to 1 in BetFair and won the race, and horses with 50 to 1 offered by bookmakers but getting 400 to 1 in BetFair - which in this case is an indication it's worth laying them taking all other factors into account (especially the length of the race).

Please note laying dogs in Australia with high prices is very risky, there are many more dogs winning races because of the short length of the race (especially 300m) - if you want to lay dogs with 100 to 1 - ensure the race is at least 700m, this way the factors building the odds are properly "taken" into account when the race takes place.

[arie1985]

I'm starting with: €6,000 balance
Betting via: Bet-IBC Betting Agent
Website: Orbit Exchange

(to be accurate I've started with €5,690 but brought the balance up to €6,000 - if you want to be aware of Bet-IBC fees please read about it here).

First bet was taken against a crappy horse in Race 5 in Moruya, the horse traded around 500-600 to 1 in BetFair, I was planning to get only €12 from this one, but I used the leftovers to place a lay bet of 120 to 1 for in live betting and apparently this one was matched, I assume because of the bots being used in the race.



So the profit from this one is €18.

[arie1985]

Race 6 in Moruya for €27 profit:

[arie1985]

Race 6 @ Gatton for €23 profit:

[arie1985]

Race 6 @ Dubbo for €13.50 profit:

[Al Masters]

Gl arie... my prediction is you run good for
a long time then in about 8 months on sloppy
sunday it all goes bad..

hope I’m wrong but I’ve been there seen it
done it.

[arie1985]

Race 8 @ Kyneton for €27 profit:

[arie1985]

Gl arie... my prediction is you run good for
a long time then in about 8 months on sloppy
sunday it all goes bad..

hope I’m wrong but I’ve been there seen it
done it.

Sundays are terrible days, need to be very careful over the weekends. You can check past results in Australia and UK here:

https://www.punters.com.au/racing-results/

[arie1985]

Gl arie... my prediction is you run good for
a long time then in about 8 months on sloppy
sunday it all goes bad..

hope I’m wrong but I’ve been there seen it
done it.

Have you tried betting like this in the past?

[arie1985]

Race 6 @ Addington NZ for €14 profit:

[arie1985]

Race 7 @ Dubbo for €16.50 profit:

[arie1985]

Race 8 @ Moruya for €8.5 profit, couldn't match the rest on 300 odds:

[arie1985]

Race 8 @ Dubbo for €11 profit:

[arie1985]

Race 1 @ Moonee Valley for €20 profit:

[arie1985]

Race 3 @ Ballarat for €13 profit:

[arie1985]

Race 3 @ Sunshine Coast for €29.50

[arie1985]

Race 1 @ Gowran Park (Ireland):



These were horses that up to 10 minutes before the race - had a price of 150 to 1 each.
Then they dropped to 67 to 1 each @ main bookmakers like William Hill and Bet365.

The only dangerous horse was Fighting Pit who got to the 40-60 to 1 in live.

Profit from this race is: €83.00 !

[Crusherrr]

This must be an insane sweat. Before I learned anything about horse racing, such as, don't bet on it, I hit some insane long-shots in late night Australian horse races. I couldn't imagine sweating a horse to not win. I'm rooting for you, but I don't see this ending well.

[arie1985]

Thanks Crusher.

[tastylacey2019]

This must be an insane sweat. Before I learned anything about horse racing, such as, don't bet on it, I hit some insane long-shots in late night Australian horse races. I couldn't imagine sweating a horse to not win. I'm rooting for you, but I don't see this ending well.

austrailian/ hong kong racing is a complete crapshoot.

[Foxx]

Good luck Arie. I remember your last thread. You're overbetting your bankroll in my opinion. I would set your liability to no more than 5% of your bankroll. Looks like your risking 100% on some plays. At least drop it to somewhere in the 10 to 20% range.

[arie1985]

6pm Race in Wolverhampton (UK) for €23 profit:

[arie1985]

7pm Race in Wolverhampton (UK) for €10.50 profit:

[arie1985]

Good luck Arie. I remember your last thread. You're overbetting your bankroll in my opinion. I would set your liability to no more than 5% of your bankroll. Looks like your risking 100% on some plays. At least drop it to somewhere in the 10 to 20% range.

It's impossible, unless you suggest me to have a bankroll of €30,000 but then why risk so much into this ... I personally wouldn't keep such an amount in any betting website whatsoever.

Yes, the risk is almost the entire balance in each race / with each bet - that's the goal, you cannot lose because if you lose then it's over. The goal is to pick horses with 300 to 1 or more, 250 is my red line ... also you have to choose markets with liquidity, for instance the UK race in Wolverhampton which starts in 2 minutes has over €500,000 traded already... pre-race! So if the market is offering 500 to 1 on a horse there is a reason for it ...

Yes, I've heard of some long shots winning races, there is an article about 1000 to 1 horse who won in BetFair - still, I treat this as an investment ... how far will the rabbit go? Only time will tell.

[littlekona]

7pm Race in Wolverhampton (UK) for €10.50 profit:

they bet him down LOL he is 390 now 1 min to post 310 now loading

[littlekona]

what was he live at half way point haha nice hit sweat for 1 minute there

[arie1985]

what was he live at half way point haha nice hit sweat for 1 minute there

I got additional €6 on this one by laying €6 profit for 95 odds (as shown in my screenshot) - I don't feel like I'm sweating it at all, price changes are all very normal, this horse finished the race 4th - the odds on this horse will surely change for future races, that's how odds are built ....

The best one I remember was King of Thieves in Singapore... won like 2-3 years ago, it was a 300 to 1 horse, and this horse hasn't won a race for years ... but the liquidity was terrible, the prizes in this race were also minimal, a few thousands of $ only ... since then I always stay away from Singapore and usually US races unless the odds and the liquidity are high ... in any other case I just stay away.

[Louisvillekid1]

Welcome

[arie1985]

7:30pm Race in Wolverhampton (UK) for €26 profit, this one is on my red line:

[littlekona]

I got additional €6 on this one by laying €6 profit for 95 odds (as shown in my screenshot) - I don't feel like I'm sweating it at all, price changes are all very normal, this horse finished the race 4th - the odds on this horse will surely change for future races, that's how odds are built ....

The best one I remember was King of Thieves in Singapore... won like 2-3 years ago, it was a 300 to 1 horse, and this horse hasn't won a race for years ... but the liquidity was terrible, the prizes in this race were also minimal, a few thousands of $ only ... since then I always stay away from Singapore and usually US races unless the odds and the liquidity are high ... in any other case I just stay away.

he made such an easy lead with fav back early i thought he would be under 20-1 at half maybe lower....that was a nice race though the winner was first time starter ran nice race.....congrats too u !

[arie1985]

he made such an easy lead with fav back early i thought he would be under 20-1 at half maybe lower....that was a nice race though the winner was first time starter ran nice race.....congrats too u !

Tnx!

[arie1985]

20:34pm Crayford Greyhound Racing for €40 profits:

[arie1985]

Withdrawn €300 after fees so far.

[arie1985]

20:51pm Crayford Greyhound Racing for €61 profits:



There aren't any other interesting Greyhound races for today, in the UK I only take odds of 30+ in bookmakers.

[jjgold]

This won’t end well with that strategy