Yanks+160/Houston-180 series line

[stevenash]

Nasher you wasting your time. Just read goaty post and laugh at a guy who knows nothing about baseball! It funny enough when he tries at hoops and nfl but baseball he even more clueless!!!

I like to write.
The Nasher blog has been launched, working on the podcast now.
Can't promote here though, oh well.

[2daBank]

I like to write.
The Nasher blog has been launched, working on the podcast now.
Can't promote here though, oh well.

I feel ya, me too. Just not that much to goaty cause he won’t appreciate! Lol.

You have to tell me bout it sometime. You one of few guys I enjoy talking bases with.

[pilebuck13]

I like to write.
The Nasher blog has been launched, working on the podcast now.
Can't promote here though, oh well.

🥳🥳🙄

[ThaTopMoron]

What happened to that elite raptors defense when Durant was on the court for 6 min? Straight dickslapped on their home court. That "elite d" that was shutting down the likes of Shawn Livingston looked like a college team suddenly.

Or what happened to that legendary Seahawks defense -- and it actually was legendary -- when Brady scored 2 unanswered tds in the 4th quarter to win the superbowl?

Miami vs the Mavs? Miami best D in the league by a mile. They could not score the ball in the 4th quarters of that series. They froze. Dallas sniped 3s from everywhere.

Offense > Defense in every sport.

But it's about clutch hitting and a mix of small and long ball. Like I said Tigers built a HR derby team with the best starting 5 pitchers basically in the last 50 year (4 of the 5 have won a cy young) and they got straight BITCHSLAPPED.

might've been legendary the year before but they were all playing with injuries in the SB and we all know they only got to that SB because the Packers goof lost his brains on an onside kick and Rodgers watched as his D failed

then... they were doing fine. very fine. then Brady threw a pick int the endzone (moron throw) and Lane who picked him off tried to run it back out and he broke his arm .... so what did Brady go to and start doing after he stopped throwing picks and his D kept it a 10 pt deficit for him?

started picking on the backup who was playing for Lane and Sea being Sea didn't change their scheme just too stubborn and dumb.

brady went against that backup everytime it was a big down.

oh, and if you recall.... the defense won the game with the pick on the 1 yard line

[Machba]

Really like Houston tonight jmo GL

[2daBank]

Really like Houston tonight jmo GL

I havmt even looked at line yet. I think they win but fear gonna be too pricey?

[stevenash]

I havmt even looked at line yet. I think they win but fear gonna be too pricey?

Reduced Juice - Internet Only
Sun 10/13		907 New York Yankees J Paxton - L	+1½ -140	+158	o7½ -113
8:08PM		908 Houston Astros J Verlander - R	-1½ +130	-164	u7½ +103
Sun 10/13		1811 New York Yankees (Series)		-140
8:08PM		1812 Houston Astros (Series)		+130
Mon 10/14		909 St. Louis Cardinals J Flaherty - R	+1½ -190	+117	o7 -112
7:38PM		910 Washington Nationals S Strasburg - R	-1½ +175	-122	u7 +102
Mon 10/14		1809 Washington Nationals (Series)		-570
7:35PM		1810 St. Louis Cardinals (Series)		+480

Reduced Juice - Internet Only
Sun 10/13		907 New York Yankees J Paxton - L	+½ +100	+162	o4 -110
8:08PM		908 Houston Astros J Verlander - R	-½ -110	-172	u4 +100
Mon 10/14		909 St. Louis Cardinals J Flaherty - R	+½ -135	+112	o3½ -120
7:38PM		910 Washington Nationals S Strasburg - R	-½ +125	-122	u3½ +110

[ThaTopMoron]

wait for game 2

remember last year when it was hard to believe they kept finding ways to continue losing games to boston after game 1

this series is the reverse of last year

wait for game 2 to bet astros avoiding gas can on the mound , get plus odds

now tied 1 - 1 with the momentum of game winning HR

[KRIT]

This game kinda blew up in Boone’s face. Went to the pen really early and that hurt them. Basically ran out of pitchers in extras. Once Happ came in you kind of m ew Houston was going to win.

[thomorino]

This game kinda blew up in Boone’s face. Went to the pen really early and that hurt them. Basically ran out of pitchers in extras. Once Happ came in you kind of m ew Houston was going to win.

Paxton was done and Houston hammers lefties, it was the right move, Yankees lost because of offense not pitching.

[KRIT]

Paxton was done and Houston hammers lefties, it was the right move, Yankees lost because of offense not pitching.

I think you are right, I’m just saying going to the pen in the third was a bold move, basically saying they had to win before they get to extras. Not saying it was the wrong move, but I don’t care how great your pen is, you can’t constantly expect them to pitch 7+ innings a game. Also now Astros have seen the pen guys more, advantage Houston as the series continues.

[thomorino]

I think you are right, I’m just saying going to the pen in the third was a bold move, basically saying they had to win before they get to extras. Not saying it was the wrong move, but I don’t care how great your pen is, you can’t constantly expect them to pitch 7+ innings a game. Also now Astros have seen the pen guys more, advantage Houston as the series continues.

Agree but they had the day off today so I get the move.

[goduke]

I'm a KC Royals fan, the memories of 2015 I'll take to my grave.
The Royals that year were a anomaly.

As a team they walked the fewest times in the league, and struck out the fewest times in the league as well.
They didn't hit many homers, but were amongst the league leaders in OPS. (they hit a shitload of triples)
They were a keep the line moving contact team. (Just ask the Houston Astros) They played pressure offense, put the ball in play and use their speed to force the opposing defenses into errors.

No, KC did not have stellar starting pitching, in fact if they don't acquire Johnny Cueto in that mid season deal they never would have sniffed the championship. Ventura was ordinary, so was Duffy and Volquez.
Any yes the bullpen was a once in a lifetime three headed monster, the greatest 'pen since the Reds nasty boys (more on them later)

KC also had stellar defense, and defense also plays a very important role in championships as well. (more on that later too.)

Tm	R/G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
ARI	4.44	6276	5649	720	1494	289	48	154	680	132	490	1312	0.264	0.324	0.414	0.738	97
ATL	3.54	6034	5420	573	1361	251	18	100	548	69	471	1107	0.251	0.314	0.359	0.674	87
BAL	4.4	6007	5485	713	1370	246	20	217	686	44	418	1331	0.25	0.307	0.421	0.728	97
BOS	4.62	6237	5640	748	1495	294	33	161	706	71	478	1148	0.265	0.325	0.415	0.74	97
CHC	4.25	6200	5491	689	1341	272	30	171	657	95	567	1518	0.244	0.321	0.398	0.719	98
CHW	3.84	6070	5533	622	1381	260	27	136	595	68	404	1231	0.25	0.306	0.38	0.686	91
CIN	3.95	6196	5571	640	1382	257	27	167	613	134	496	1255	0.248	0.312	0.394	0.706	92
CLE	4.16	6109	5439	669	1395	303	29	141	640	86	533	1157	0.256	0.325	0.401	0.725	93
COL	4.55	6071	5572	737	1479	274	49	186	702	97	388	1283	0.265	0.315	0.432	0.748	89
DET	4.28	6159	5605	689	1515	289	49	151	660	83	455	1259	0.27	0.328	0.42	0.748	105
HOU	4.5	6073	5459	729	1363	278	26	230	691	121	486	1392	0.25	0.315	0.437	0.752	107
KCR	4.47	6116	5575	724	1497	300	42	139	689	104	383	973	0.269	0.322	0.412	0.734	98
LAA	4.08	5990	5417	661	1331	243	21	176	621	52	435	1150	0.246	0.307	0.396	0.702	97
LAD	4.12	6090	5385	667	1346	263	26	187	638	59	563	1258	0.25	0.326	0.413	0.739	106
MIA	3.78	5988	5463	613	1420	236	40	120	575	112	375	1150	0.26	0.31	0.384	0.694	93
MIL	4.04	6024	5480	655	1378	274	34	145	624	84	412	1299	0.251	0.307	0.393	0.7	91
MIN	4.3	6017	5467	696	1349	277	44	156	661	70	439	1264	0.247	0.305	0.399	0.704	92
NYM	4.22	6145	5527	683	1351	295	17	177	654	51	488	1290	0.244	0.312	0.4	0.712	96
NYY	4.72	6268	5567	764	1397	272	19	212	737	63	554	1227	0.251	0.323	0.421	0.744	102
OAK	4.28	6171	5600	694	1405	277	46	146	661	78	475	1119	0.251	0.312	0.395	0.707	96
PHI	3.86	6053	5529	626	1374	272	37	130	586	88	387	1274	0.249	0.303	0.382	0.684	89
PIT	4.3	6285	5631	697	1462	292	27	140	661	98	461	1322	0.26	0.323	0.396	0.719	97
SDP	4.01	6019	5457	650	1324	260	36	148	623	82	426	1327	0.243	0.3	0.385	0.685	91
SEA	4.05	6131	5544	656	1379	262	22	198	624	69	478	1336	0.249	0.311	0.411	0.722	101
SFG	4.3	6153	5565	696	1486	288	39	136	663	93	457	1159	0.267	0.326	0.406	0.732	101
STL	3.99	6139	5484	647	1386	288	39	137	619	69	506	1267	0.253	0.321	0.394	0.716	95
TBR	3.98	6071	5485	644	1383	278	32	167	612	87	436	1310	0.252	0.314	0.406	0.72	100
TEX	4.64	6187	5511	751	1419	279	32	172	707	101	503	1233	0.257	0.325	0.413	0.739	98
TOR	5.5	6232	5509	891	1480	308	17	232	852	88	570	1151	0.269	0.34	0.457	0.797	115
WSN	4.34	6117	5428	703	1363	265	13	177	665	57	539	1344	0.251	0.321	0.403	0.724	96
LgAvg	4.25	6121	5516	688	1404	275	31	164	655	84	469	1248	0.254	0.317	0.405	0.721	97

Now, this is where we are in disagreement.
Good pitching while not always will beat good hitting.

You can use the 1954 Indians to support your argument.
That Indian rotation led by Bob Feller and Bob Lemon was considered the greatest staff of all time (up to that point)
They were supposed to steam roll the NY Giants in the World Series. Cleveland was 3:1 favorites I'm told. My father was a 30 year career Navy military engineer, he and his Navy buddies put up 300 to win 100 (big money back in the 50's)
What happened? Willie Mays made that famous over the shoulder catch and the 3 to 1 underdogs swept the Indians.

But for every one of those pitching doesn't always win examples I can site three examples where pitching wins championships to every one good hitting beats good pitching examples.

1990.
Oakland had the bash brothers, Canseco and McGuire and the rest.
The A's were 2:1 favorites to beat the Reds. Hell the pundits were all saying the Reds would be lucky to win one game.
What happened? The Nasty Boys of the Reds bullpen happened and swept the Oakland sluggers 4-0.

1963.
The perfect example.
LA Dodgers vs. NY Yankees.

The Yankees lineup was loaded. Stacked.
Mantle, Kubek, Richardson, Tresh, Yogi Berra.....
The Dodger lineup was anemic, their leading batter was Tommy Davis (.326) they only had one 20 home run slugger (Frank Howard), and speed merchant Maury Wills. Everyone else couldn't hit their weight.
So how did LA beat the mighty Yankees?
With 25-5 Sandy Koufax, 19 game winner Don Dysdale......
That Dodger team was all pitching, next to nothing on offense.
And the Yankees had two 20 game winners that year too, Whitey Ford was Cy Young good, and Jim Bounton.

It would be ignorant for me to say good pitching always beats good hitting,but it usuallydoes.

Earlier I mentioned defense wins too.
I've been preaching for ever that a good up the middle defense (C, 2B, SS, CF) makes a decent pitcher good, and a good pitcher great and conversely makes a decent pitcher poor.
I have several examples of this but I'll just cite two.

1984 Tigers.
Detroit opened up the season with an eye popping 35-5 record and never looked back wining the World Series easily.
Tigers had a very ordinary starting pitching staff. Milt Wilcox, Dan Petry, and Jack Morris (who wasn't ordinary but the rest of the staff was.
Wilcox won 17 games, Petry won 18 games. These pitchers don't win 17 and 18 games without great up the middle defense.
Parrish was the catcher, he won a gold glove, Trammel played SS and won a gold glove. Whittaker won a gold glove at 2B, and Chet Lemon in CF should have won a gold glove but was robbed.
Do you know how many runs those four on defense saved those pitchers?

My last point is the 1976 Reds.
Of course that team was stacked, but their staff wasn't loaded.
The Reds featured Johnny Bench behind the plate, Joe Morgan at 2B, Concepcion at SS.
All four of them won gold gloves.
Do you know how many runs they saved for Billingsley and Gary Nolan?

I'll await your reply.

I'm all for a debate but you are using 1954,1963, 1976, 1984 and 1990 examples? Just a tad bit of a different game right now dont you think?

[stevenash]

I'm all for a debate but you are using 1954,1963, 1976, 1984 and 1990 examples? Just a tad bit of a different game right now dont you think?

OK, I know you well enough to know you're OK, we just got off on the wrong foot is all.

The game hasn't changed much at all in 80 years, the players are bigger and stronger yes, the resources have changed.
The balls are juicier and the bats are made of better wood, but the game is still played the same.
You still have to get 27 outs to win, it's still four balls for a walk and three strikes for an out.
The bases are still 90 feet apart, it's still 60 feet 6 inches from the pitcher's mound to home plate.

What's changed in the past is the pitcher's mound was lowered 5 inches in 1969 to "increase hitting" after Bob Gibson dominated the major league hitting in 1968 and the official definition of the strike zone shrunk a few inches as well.
Even cheating isn't new, it's just more sophisticated.
Back in Mantle's and Ted William's day they used to spike their juice with uppers, now the players use undetectable steroids.
Hell even "the shift" isn't new, defenses were shifting Ted Williams when he was hitting .400
Ted liked to pull the ball, but by no means he couldn't go opposite field.

Now don't lose sight of the fact I said good pitching usually beats good hitting.
It would be ignorant for me to say good pitching always beats good hitting.

Even with the balls juiced liked superballs and are flying over the fence at alarming rates it's still the pitchers job to get the hitter out.
The Kershaw's (that's regular season Kershaw), Max's, Cole's, Verlander's, Flaherty's, and deGrom's the game's elites will usually get the big sluggers out. Of course the heavy sluggers will usually own the bad pitchers but I'm talking about the games best pitchers.

It's my contention that since the game hasn't changed much over the decades (with a few exceptions) than why can't I use the 1954,1963, 1976, 1984 and 1990 as examples?
If you're opinion is different I can respect that.
If you want to go over just the past five seasons though.

2015 KC won with bullpen pitching, speed, and defense.

2016 Cubs won with a balanced team, they had Chapman in the 'pen, a good starting staff. Yes their lineup was strong.

2017 Astros are pretty much the same lineup as this years 2019 lineup with the exception of McCann and Beltran. I will concede that Astro team won with hitting more so than pitching.

2018 Red Sox. Look closely at that team. Not only was that team stacked, all the pieces came together as one at the same time.
Yes, their offense was can't miss last year. Mookie, Bogaerts, the rising star Benintendi, and JD Martinez.
The Sox pitching staff was just as loaded. That staff featured two Cy Young Award winners (Porcello and Price) and their ace Chris Sale that never won a Cy Young Award but should have. Last year was the year David Price finally lived up to his expectations and then some, both in the regular season and most importantly the postseason. Price was 16-7 last season and stellar in the postseason.
If you remember now, all of a sudden the Sox hitting disappeared off the map in the playoffs. The Sox pitching won the Series.
Price was unhittable, so was Porcello and fireballer Nathan Eovaldi. Sale was so-so. Matt Barnes was unreal as the setup man, Kimbrel meh.

2019
If the Nationals win this year it'll probably be due to Max and Strasberg.
If the Astros win this year it this year it'll probably be due to Cole, Verlander and to a lesser extent Greinke.
The Yankees strength is their power, but their bullpen is one of the best of 2019.

OK, I'm starting to get writers cramp here, and yes I wrote this in segments.
I still maintain even though the offenses have picked up some over the past decade good pitching will shut it down. But I'm not that old but old school.
If you disagree that's fine I won't be at all offended.

So, who you like in game 3?
Are the Astros a bargain to win the series at -155?

Tue 10/15		911 Houston Astros G Cole - R	-1½ +105	-160 Listed	o7½ +100
4:08PM		912 New York Yankees L Severino - R	+1½ -115	+155 Listed	u7½ -110
Tue 10/15		1811 New York Yankees (Series)		+145
4:08PM		1812 Houston Astros (Series)		-155

Peace.

[goduke]

You have done more research on this then I have so I don't think I'm informed enough to really be debating it. As for the series I took Astros after game 1 which I said in another thread. Before the series I had thought the astros were priced high enough to draw new york money on they yanks which i felt like they were trying to do.

[stevenash]

^
Good reasoning.
Yeah, I'm an analyst in real life, I enjoy this stuff.
Good luck with all your wagers.

[Ken Ryu]

Why do I have a feeling that we have a ALCS 2017 rematch between Yankees vs Astros? Are we gonna see both sides tackle it out till game 7?

[Ken Ryu]

Gleyber Torres is a such sensational hitter his 5-RBI performance asserts that the championship is for the taking and not guaranteed on one side only.

[2daBank]

You have done more research on this then I have so I don't think I'm informed enough to really be debating it. As for the series I took Astros after game 1 which I said in another thread. Before the series I had thought the astros were priced high enough to draw new york money on they yanks which i felt like they were trying to do.

I just have never understood going about it this way. Obviously not saying Stros the wrong side, just that I don’t believe for a minute inflated lines are put up to draw in money on other side.

They don’t know who gonna win!! Risk getting crushed putting up bad numbers with that in mind, firmly believe that just the number that reflects they felt Stros chances of winning was. I strongly disagree w it even tho I leaned Stros most the year.

Look at how far it moved after gm1, and who didn’t think yanks had a good shot in that game?

[Ken Ryu]

Even though we may have an even game series currently but when Justin Verlander decides to pitch up to and lives up to his success history vs Yankees, it’ll be over.

[stevenash]

Why do I have a feeling that we have a ALCS 2017 rematch between Yankees vs Astros? Are we gonna see both sides tackle it out till game 7?

I think this series goes to the max also.
I thought the minimum would be six games.
This series is pretty much even up in my eyes with is why I jumped all over +170 when I was offered it 36 hours before game 1.

I'm always seeking out plus money when I think the dog has a good chance of winning in coin flips.

[Ken Ryu]

I’m not making the mistake of calling it too early but I’m drawn in so closely to the outcome results of this game series as much as this article which guides me into realistic predictions: https://www.bonusseeker.com/news/pen...lcs-prediction

[Mr KLC]

AJ Hinch says he expects game four on Wednesday will be a “bullpen day,” but a lot depends on how things go in game 3

[stevenash]

AJ Hinch says he expects game four on Wednesday will be a “bullpen day,” but a lot depends on how things go in game 3

There's a major Nor'easter coming this way Wednesday.
There will be no game Wednesday.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/fairfield/06824/daily-weather-forecast/332270?day=3

[krk1030]

There's a major Nor'easter coming this way Wednesday.
There will be no game Wednesday.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/fa...t/332270?day=3

Shouldn't change a ton since they would just no longer have a day off for travel.

Astros could pitch Grienkie, but then game 5 would be the bullpen day.

[goduke]

I just have never understood going about it this way. Obviously not saying Stros the wrong side, just that I don’t believe for a minute inflated lines are put up to draw in money on other side.

They don’t know who gonna win!! Risk getting crushed putting up bad numbers with that in mind, firmly believe that just the number that reflects they felt Stros chances of winning was. I strongly disagree w it even tho I leaned Stros most the year.

Look at how far it moved after gm1, and who didn’t think yanks had a good shot in that game?

But I think they have a better idea then we do. Books have been doing this for years, I think they could take a stand on plenty of games and the reward would far outgain the risk for them

[2daBank]

But I think they have a better idea then we do. Books have been doing this for years, I think they could take a stand on plenty of games and the reward would far outgain the risk for them

Obviously they got a way better idea than me, lol. that said there ppl out there that would abuse them for such things don’t ya think??

I just don’t think it the case man, especially not here. Look at the edges they give Stros starting pitchers game to game, nothing suspect about where it opened. Obviously lot of ppl gonna see value in yanks at that price but lot of us been believing Stros been the team to beat all year..

if they doing anything like you suggest with the line it prob has something to do with amount of futures exposer they had on both.,

[stevenash]

But I think they have a better idea then we do. Books have been doing this for years, I think they could take a stand on plenty of games and the reward would far outgain the risk for them

Yeah, not to mention the books have a team of researches, I/T geeks, etc. etc. working for them.
Not only that some books run 1000's of simulation games on high speed computers to gauge what's likely to happen.

[2daBank]

Yeah, not to mention the books have a team of researches, I/T geeks, etc. etc. working for them.
Not only that some books run 1000's of simulation games on high speed computers to gauge what's likely to happen.

Which why they line it where it belongs not to “trap” bombers bettors.

[stevenash]

Which why they line it where it belongs not to “trap” bombers bettors.

Sharp man!
Banker not just another pretty face.

I can't believe I just said that.

[pilebuck13]

of course you did bro. You tell me why the fuk the yankees +170? What the fuk is that line about it’s realistic in the fact as saying anyone with a clue knows yankees dead money gl

dead money