Expecting some light rain Fri and Sat, adjust accordingly.
Race 1
Absolute wide open 20k Maiden Claimer, I believe many are going to side with the #3 Bebeau (9/2) , 4 year old gelding makes all the sense in the world, dropping down after a few near misses. But I’ll wager that this one goes off 3/1 at best. For that reason I’ll suggest using in the multi race bets, but if your playing this early pick 5 sequence , you better have strong opinions later, because this race is gonna cost you. #6 Traceability (6/1) , I wanted to side with this 3 year old chestnut colt. Bill Mott has him improving and the 3/8’s work 3 days ago tells me he wants this one more forwardly placed, which makes great sense to me, as this is not a loaded paced field, by any means. And I simply don’t trust Joel right now to do that. #1 Joe Benjamin (4/1) , Something tells me , Paco back from suspension gives this one a very positive ride in this spot, but not sure this 4 year colt is good enough, and while they just ran behind #2 Winning Factor (7/2) , Rajiv at a number like this , is almost an automatic toss for me. Even though this colt fits in some ways , I highly doubt the 11th time is the charm. #7 Backanblue (12/1) , 3 year old colt ran evenly on debut, number came back fine, drops the tag in half, adds the blinkers and gets a pilot upgrade. Primed to take a big step forward at second asking. #8 Power (10/1) , McPeek’s barn is scorching hot, and enlists the hottest jockey in the country. 4 year colt has been working very well, taking the huge drop in for a tag. #10 Castillete (20/1) ,coming off a placing , in which he finished ahead of Duelist, who tyler just rode to victory here last week. Note the half mile work of 47 & 4 a week ago. #11 Katara Pass (15/1) , 4 year old gelding stretches out off a showing from a 13 month layoff, Gets a positive rider change. Another that should step forward. #12 Beach Traffic (8/1) , Has the feel like this 3 year old gelding is going to be a professional maiden, but the numbers fit here, don’t they? #13 Strong Ending (6/1 AE) , Saez rides here after being the last pilot to ride on both the #1 and #3, Has been taken on some very wide trips recently , but note the z pattern the last time Luis Rode. Always takes money, you comfortable leaving this one off the ticket, if he gets in? #14 Indirectly (10/1 AE) , I had this Chestnut colt on my ticket at last asking, and tossed the rider. Barn is quietly having a excellent run down in South Florida.
If I have to narrow down this race, I Suppose the cheapest I could go is 1,3,6,7,8,11. If your playing a vertical ticket , Well good luck figuring out how this combination turns out.
Race 2
Repole Stables and Todd Pletcher , can’t be too happy with the #4 Silver Maker (1/1) , not too long ago paid 800k for this 3 year colt, and today it can be all yours for $12.5k. Im not confident , if they aren’t. #3 Dardanellos (8/1) , Almost impossible this one doesn’t hit the board in some fashion, Jockey upgrade. #9 Hail Michigan (9/2) , 4 year old colt goes turf to dirt, for Mr. Tagg and positive to see Paco aboard, Working solid in the am’s and this one should be more involved early today. #10 Gambit (6/1) , just look all the money this 5 year gelding has burned up , wow! How can you back this one now.
I can not back anybody in this field, so Im definitely out of the early Horizontal plays here. I suppose you take the 4 and 9 by default, but not for my money.
Race 3
#2 Donder ’n Blitzen (7/2) , IS a must include and saez returns to make it 2 in a row at the level. And while you won’t get anywhere near this price, its a pretty much faceless race, and very logical to wire this field. Beautiful spot here, with one of the best aggressive riders in the world. #3 Days of Spring (5/2) , has tactical speed and drops back down to the original claimed level. But like many in here will be praying Joel sends #9 Vickythebest (8/1) , really the only one that may challenge the top pick in this spot on the front end. But Im betting Joel will try the rate the horse. Look there is a lot would be players in here if they get pace to run at, but i just don’t see it. #4 Beasaichi (4/1) , First off the claim after just missing @ last asking against the top pick. I think we see that same 24 and 49 here, but did have to steady late and has an excuse for not getting up in time. #5 Lady Noguez (6/1) , comes outta the same race only losing by a neck , logical both these will be coming late again. #6 Sayyida Al Hurra (6/1) , If Mr. Motion put a better pilot on this 3 year old filly, I’d be tempted to make her my top pick at a price. Clear Question mark in this field, as we really don’t know what she can do or even where she belongs. Ran at the 75k level in last 2, and didn’t show much, but i count 4 different distances in 5 lifetime races, along with 3 different surfaces. #7 Miss My Macho (12/1) , Didn't show much trying winners for the first time, but she should take a step forward today.
Not that we will get it, but I’d be very happy to play the #2 to win @ 5/2 or better.
Race 4
There is no reason to write on another wide open race, this Maiden claimer is loaded with connections dropping in for the tag combined w/ some firsters. So I’ll just give the one I’ll side with. #3 Carolyn’s Smile (3/1) , 3 year old filly outta Khozan set the pace while dueling in the last off a 9 month layoff and ended up 4th beaten by 5.5. Note the 3rd place finisher came back to win. Tyler returns for Mr. Nicks (who has done some fine work with these Khozan’s as he was the original trainer on my buddies horse Untitled, who we are trying to get the derby). They take the blinkers off and expect this one’s stamina to be up in the 2nd off the layoff try and be able to stick close early in a stalking fashion.
Race 5
#1 Algodonal (5/2) , Horse has clear speed from the rail, but 5% Rajiv on a turf speed at this price? 4 year old filly has 2nd place written all over her. #5 Gorgeous in Grey (8/1) , enters this off a 7 month layoff, but weaver has been pushing all the right buttons down here, and not a bad start by tabbing Tyler to ride. #6 Feature Creature (6/1) , Finished right behind the Favorite in last asking under Irad. 4 year old filly always tries hard and is always around. Drops down here, for this second off the lay off the try and might get the trip.
For that reason I’ll make the latter my top selection.
Race 6
This race plays almost like a quarter horse field. The #1 Take Charge Dude (3/5) , Is clearly a top contender, but is off the 2 month layoff and had a tough go of it last out. I don’t see this 10k Optional Claiming condition often. #2 Travy Boy (8/1) , 5 year old gelding always brings it, and should cash another check today. #4 Phish Fan (6/1) , I think this 10 year old gelding is a a really cool horse. 33 outta 62 in the money lifetime and 9 outta 22 on this oval. But if the speed duel does happen here, this one shows the ability to rate and gets the best pilot aboard in quite a long time.
I’ll take the #4 as top selection, but have to include the others on horizontals.
Race 7
#2 Get Rewarded (12/1) , Only qualifies for this non winners of 2 , due to a disqualification 2 back. Following that effort , 4 year old filly encountered a ton of trouble in the last, and I still ran well. This barn is quietly making some noise here (5 outta 15 in the trifecta) as i type. May get some value on this one. #6 Magic River (6/1) , I suppose makes some sense here. #10 Mia’s Bobtail (20/1) , Hasn’t been on the turf in a while , but the 3 moves on the lawn Im seeing fit here, long shot chance. #3 Midnight Gem (15/1) , barn kept this filly in jail to run back at this level, a few 3/8’s work during , might get this one more involved early. barn is showing a 37% number, 1st off the claim in 27 chances. #11 Gioielli (6/5) , Pletcher should be able to get this 5 year mare a win this spot. Its rather soft and with Luis aboard, this is your most likely winner.
If you can afford not to single, I believe the #2 and and #10 have legit chances of blowing up the ticket as many punters will be leaning on the #11 in this sequence to start the late pick 4.
Race 8
#1 Super Cute (8/1) , Trying winners for first time, but i might have to include due to my vow not to let this barn beat me. #3 Sweet Mia (8/1) , What has this 3 year old filly done wrong to dismiss here? #4 Four Grands (7/2) , won going away by more than 6 at debut, and the work tab has been fantastic for Mr. Romans, trying winners for the first time. #5 Finding Game (4/1) , Has been giving the freshening since breaking the maiden and shug might have a good one here. Zayas takes over for Javy, beautifully bred for this. #7 Good Credence (6/1) , Manny got a showing on this horse in a 250k stakes races back halloween time. My guess is this barn, might take their time with one on the comeback, and will need this race, but not an easy toss. #8 Four Graces (3/1) , Simply put, clear must include off that debut effort.
I think you absolutely have to use the 4 and 8 no matter what, but I may toss in the 7 as well . I’ll break my Clement vow and leave the rail horse off the ticket.
edit : the #5 might be top pick
Race 9
#3 Positive Phil (5/2) , has kept some good company as of late, and It seems its time for this 4 year old colt to move past this condition. Please Joel don’t make this one do too much. #5 Youshouldbesolucky (7/2) , Makes a ton of sense underneath, in this 2nd off the layoff attempt. #7 Smell of Roses (9/2) , Is common rival with the top choice but I believe a step below, another logical unders candidate. #8 Dillion Rocks (6/1) , This 4 year old colt, has a ton of back class from last year in New York. Kept plenty of company that would crush these. Finally graduating under paco , maybe the light bulb came on. #4 Crypto Gold (10/1) , Is another with some NY back class trying winners for the first time, but unders only for me.
So I think the #3 is a clear single here, But I may use the #8 as a saver on the ticket, because Singling Rosario is scary proposition.
Race 10
#2 Muskoka Storm (12/1) , Casse/Tyler at price? Just missed on the off the turf event, but they put this one back on the grass anyway, how can you dismiss if anywhere near this number? #3 Irked (10/1) , If this one wins and blows up the ticket, you’ll be kicking yourself. Mott can win off the bench, and been working well. Ran vs much tougher at Saratoga. #6 Caribbean Gold (8/1) , Beaten Favorite on Debut, but number came back strong, pair that with the works since, and you have a very difficult toss. #7 Allegedly Perfect (10/1) , Has the makings that type of horse that spoils many horizitonal plays. Ran 3rd last out off a 7 month layoff, and they tried to get on grass last time. the number fits, with some improved 2nd off the bench. Hector is a damn good pilot for these types. #9 Shared Legacy (6/1) , I think had some chances already, and will be over bet, I might let this one beat me. I’d rather use #10 On the Muscle (6/1) , Stidham / Bravo team up for this 2nd off the layoff attempt. They tried winners right off the bench, hard to dismiss. #11 R Man Joe (9/5) , Has done the same thing in all 3 races to date, identical running lines. All depends how much Jaramillo has to use this horse to crossover and make the early lead. Georgina Baxter did a great job moving this one up to 75k stakes race and cash that big check last out.
The 11 is must use, but depending on ticket size, I’d like to include the 2,3,6,7,10
Race 1
Absolute wide open 20k Maiden Claimer, I believe many are going to side with the #3 Bebeau (9/2) , 4 year old gelding makes all the sense in the world, dropping down after a few near misses. But I’ll wager that this one goes off 3/1 at best. For that reason I’ll suggest using in the multi race bets, but if your playing this early pick 5 sequence , you better have strong opinions later, because this race is gonna cost you. #6 Traceability (6/1) , I wanted to side with this 3 year old chestnut colt. Bill Mott has him improving and the 3/8’s work 3 days ago tells me he wants this one more forwardly placed, which makes great sense to me, as this is not a loaded paced field, by any means. And I simply don’t trust Joel right now to do that. #1 Joe Benjamin (4/1) , Something tells me , Paco back from suspension gives this one a very positive ride in this spot, but not sure this 4 year colt is good enough, and while they just ran behind #2 Winning Factor (7/2) , Rajiv at a number like this , is almost an automatic toss for me. Even though this colt fits in some ways , I highly doubt the 11th time is the charm. #7 Backanblue (12/1) , 3 year old colt ran evenly on debut, number came back fine, drops the tag in half, adds the blinkers and gets a pilot upgrade. Primed to take a big step forward at second asking. #8 Power (10/1) , McPeek’s barn is scorching hot, and enlists the hottest jockey in the country. 4 year colt has been working very well, taking the huge drop in for a tag. #10 Castillete (20/1) ,coming off a placing , in which he finished ahead of Duelist, who tyler just rode to victory here last week. Note the half mile work of 47 & 4 a week ago. #11 Katara Pass (15/1) , 4 year old gelding stretches out off a showing from a 13 month layoff, Gets a positive rider change. Another that should step forward. #12 Beach Traffic (8/1) , Has the feel like this 3 year old gelding is going to be a professional maiden, but the numbers fit here, don’t they? #13 Strong Ending (6/1 AE) , Saez rides here after being the last pilot to ride on both the #1 and #3, Has been taken on some very wide trips recently , but note the z pattern the last time Luis Rode. Always takes money, you comfortable leaving this one off the ticket, if he gets in? #14 Indirectly (10/1 AE) , I had this Chestnut colt on my ticket at last asking, and tossed the rider. Barn is quietly having a excellent run down in South Florida.
If I have to narrow down this race, I Suppose the cheapest I could go is 1,3,6,7,8,11. If your playing a vertical ticket , Well good luck figuring out how this combination turns out.
Race 2
Repole Stables and Todd Pletcher , can’t be too happy with the #4 Silver Maker (1/1) , not too long ago paid 800k for this 3 year colt, and today it can be all yours for $12.5k. Im not confident , if they aren’t. #3 Dardanellos (8/1) , Almost impossible this one doesn’t hit the board in some fashion, Jockey upgrade. #9 Hail Michigan (9/2) , 4 year old colt goes turf to dirt, for Mr. Tagg and positive to see Paco aboard, Working solid in the am’s and this one should be more involved early today. #10 Gambit (6/1) , just look all the money this 5 year gelding has burned up , wow! How can you back this one now.
I can not back anybody in this field, so Im definitely out of the early Horizontal plays here. I suppose you take the 4 and 9 by default, but not for my money.
Race 3
#2 Donder ’n Blitzen (7/2) , IS a must include and saez returns to make it 2 in a row at the level. And while you won’t get anywhere near this price, its a pretty much faceless race, and very logical to wire this field. Beautiful spot here, with one of the best aggressive riders in the world. #3 Days of Spring (5/2) , has tactical speed and drops back down to the original claimed level. But like many in here will be praying Joel sends #9 Vickythebest (8/1) , really the only one that may challenge the top pick in this spot on the front end. But Im betting Joel will try the rate the horse. Look there is a lot would be players in here if they get pace to run at, but i just don’t see it. #4 Beasaichi (4/1) , First off the claim after just missing @ last asking against the top pick. I think we see that same 24 and 49 here, but did have to steady late and has an excuse for not getting up in time. #5 Lady Noguez (6/1) , comes outta the same race only losing by a neck , logical both these will be coming late again. #6 Sayyida Al Hurra (6/1) , If Mr. Motion put a better pilot on this 3 year old filly, I’d be tempted to make her my top pick at a price. Clear Question mark in this field, as we really don’t know what she can do or even where she belongs. Ran at the 75k level in last 2, and didn’t show much, but i count 4 different distances in 5 lifetime races, along with 3 different surfaces. #7 Miss My Macho (12/1) , Didn't show much trying winners for the first time, but she should take a step forward today.
Not that we will get it, but I’d be very happy to play the #2 to win @ 5/2 or better.
Race 4
There is no reason to write on another wide open race, this Maiden claimer is loaded with connections dropping in for the tag combined w/ some firsters. So I’ll just give the one I’ll side with. #3 Carolyn’s Smile (3/1) , 3 year old filly outta Khozan set the pace while dueling in the last off a 9 month layoff and ended up 4th beaten by 5.5. Note the 3rd place finisher came back to win. Tyler returns for Mr. Nicks (who has done some fine work with these Khozan’s as he was the original trainer on my buddies horse Untitled, who we are trying to get the derby). They take the blinkers off and expect this one’s stamina to be up in the 2nd off the layoff try and be able to stick close early in a stalking fashion.
Race 5
#1 Algodonal (5/2) , Horse has clear speed from the rail, but 5% Rajiv on a turf speed at this price? 4 year old filly has 2nd place written all over her. #5 Gorgeous in Grey (8/1) , enters this off a 7 month layoff, but weaver has been pushing all the right buttons down here, and not a bad start by tabbing Tyler to ride. #6 Feature Creature (6/1) , Finished right behind the Favorite in last asking under Irad. 4 year old filly always tries hard and is always around. Drops down here, for this second off the lay off the try and might get the trip.
For that reason I’ll make the latter my top selection.
Race 6
This race plays almost like a quarter horse field. The #1 Take Charge Dude (3/5) , Is clearly a top contender, but is off the 2 month layoff and had a tough go of it last out. I don’t see this 10k Optional Claiming condition often. #2 Travy Boy (8/1) , 5 year old gelding always brings it, and should cash another check today. #4 Phish Fan (6/1) , I think this 10 year old gelding is a a really cool horse. 33 outta 62 in the money lifetime and 9 outta 22 on this oval. But if the speed duel does happen here, this one shows the ability to rate and gets the best pilot aboard in quite a long time.
I’ll take the #4 as top selection, but have to include the others on horizontals.
Race 7
#2 Get Rewarded (12/1) , Only qualifies for this non winners of 2 , due to a disqualification 2 back. Following that effort , 4 year old filly encountered a ton of trouble in the last, and I still ran well. This barn is quietly making some noise here (5 outta 15 in the trifecta) as i type. May get some value on this one. #6 Magic River (6/1) , I suppose makes some sense here. #10 Mia’s Bobtail (20/1) , Hasn’t been on the turf in a while , but the 3 moves on the lawn Im seeing fit here, long shot chance. #3 Midnight Gem (15/1) , barn kept this filly in jail to run back at this level, a few 3/8’s work during , might get this one more involved early. barn is showing a 37% number, 1st off the claim in 27 chances. #11 Gioielli (6/5) , Pletcher should be able to get this 5 year mare a win this spot. Its rather soft and with Luis aboard, this is your most likely winner.
If you can afford not to single, I believe the #2 and and #10 have legit chances of blowing up the ticket as many punters will be leaning on the #11 in this sequence to start the late pick 4.
Race 8
#1 Super Cute (8/1) , Trying winners for first time, but i might have to include due to my vow not to let this barn beat me. #3 Sweet Mia (8/1) , What has this 3 year old filly done wrong to dismiss here? #4 Four Grands (7/2) , won going away by more than 6 at debut, and the work tab has been fantastic for Mr. Romans, trying winners for the first time. #5 Finding Game (4/1) , Has been giving the freshening since breaking the maiden and shug might have a good one here. Zayas takes over for Javy, beautifully bred for this. #7 Good Credence (6/1) , Manny got a showing on this horse in a 250k stakes races back halloween time. My guess is this barn, might take their time with one on the comeback, and will need this race, but not an easy toss. #8 Four Graces (3/1) , Simply put, clear must include off that debut effort.
I think you absolutely have to use the 4 and 8 no matter what, but I may toss in the 7 as well . I’ll break my Clement vow and leave the rail horse off the ticket.
edit : the #5 might be top pick
Race 9
#3 Positive Phil (5/2) , has kept some good company as of late, and It seems its time for this 4 year old colt to move past this condition. Please Joel don’t make this one do too much. #5 Youshouldbesolucky (7/2) , Makes a ton of sense underneath, in this 2nd off the layoff attempt. #7 Smell of Roses (9/2) , Is common rival with the top choice but I believe a step below, another logical unders candidate. #8 Dillion Rocks (6/1) , This 4 year old colt, has a ton of back class from last year in New York. Kept plenty of company that would crush these. Finally graduating under paco , maybe the light bulb came on. #4 Crypto Gold (10/1) , Is another with some NY back class trying winners for the first time, but unders only for me.
So I think the #3 is a clear single here, But I may use the #8 as a saver on the ticket, because Singling Rosario is scary proposition.
Race 10
#2 Muskoka Storm (12/1) , Casse/Tyler at price? Just missed on the off the turf event, but they put this one back on the grass anyway, how can you dismiss if anywhere near this number? #3 Irked (10/1) , If this one wins and blows up the ticket, you’ll be kicking yourself. Mott can win off the bench, and been working well. Ran vs much tougher at Saratoga. #6 Caribbean Gold (8/1) , Beaten Favorite on Debut, but number came back strong, pair that with the works since, and you have a very difficult toss. #7 Allegedly Perfect (10/1) , Has the makings that type of horse that spoils many horizitonal plays. Ran 3rd last out off a 7 month layoff, and they tried to get on grass last time. the number fits, with some improved 2nd off the bench. Hector is a damn good pilot for these types. #9 Shared Legacy (6/1) , I think had some chances already, and will be over bet, I might let this one beat me. I’d rather use #10 On the Muscle (6/1) , Stidham / Bravo team up for this 2nd off the layoff attempt. They tried winners right off the bench, hard to dismiss. #11 R Man Joe (9/5) , Has done the same thing in all 3 races to date, identical running lines. All depends how much Jaramillo has to use this horse to crossover and make the early lead. Georgina Baxter did a great job moving this one up to 75k stakes race and cash that big check last out.
The 11 is must use, but depending on ticket size, I’d like to include the 2,3,6,7,10
