What's the play?
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What's the play? -
How dies secretariat lose??Comment -
No. I’m busy #ShelteringInPlaceComment -
isn't this easier for them to rig the outcome?Comment -
plz put this in the mickey mouse book sportsbookComment -
6-5 Ice ColdComment -
I will take a shot with Citation.Comment -
all in APComment -
wheres thunder gulch or mine that birdComment -
Maybe 3 and 6?Comment -
HOW THEY DID IT
To create this race of champions, select officials from Churchill Downs analyzed past-performance information for each of the 13 Triple Crown winners and also researched the respected opinions of distinguished horse racing experts who have evaluated those horses’ achievements and put them into historical perspective.
The results of this research led to each horse getting assigned a “fundamental probability,” as Inspired Entertainment refers to it — basically, the overall chance that horse has to win this race.
The horse assigned the highest winning probability isn’t necessarily going to cross the virtual finish line first Saturday evening. Rogers compared the process for choosing a winner to the NBA lottery system and its ping-pong ball display.
“Essentially, the result is determined by a weighted lottery system,” he said. “So think of the NBA lottery — if there were 100 numbered table tennis balls, and one is drawn to determine the winner. Twenty of the balls in the bin may have the number of the horse considered to be the favorite in the race. And then the horse deemed to be the longest shot in the field may only have two of the balls. Now, in the end, the randomly drawn ball is going to determine the winner.
“We have fed into their computer models and assessed, basically, a win probability percentage for each horse.”
So, just like in real horse races, luck — good and bad — will play a factor. The “best” horse won’t necessarily win the race. An upset could occur.
Though there is no official wagering through Churchill Downs on Saturday’s virtual race, veteran oddsmaker Mike Battaglia has a set a morning line. Secretariat — the 1973 champion who many consider to be the greatest Thoroughbred in American racing history — is the 7-2 favorite.
“I’ve got to give Secretariat the edge,” said Battaglia, who has set the morning line at Churchill Downs since 1974. “This was a really fun morning line to make and I’m looking forward to the race.”
The longest shots are Assault, Sir Barton, Gallant Fox and Omaha, all at 20-1.
“I didn’t have the heart to hang more than 20-1 odds on a Triple Crown winner!” Battaglia quipped in a press release this week.
Rogers said it’s important to note that Battaglia was not aware of the probabilities Churchill Downs and Inspired Entertainment used to create Saturday’s race, and his morning line is “totally independent” of the data provided to make the final result. (The independent gambling website BetOnline.Ag released its own odds Thursday — with Secretariat as a 2-1 favorite — and that site is actually taking wagers on the virtual race).
Rogers also noted that the probabilities assigned to each horse were based on research encompassing that horse’s entire career, not just the races leading up to each Triple Crown winner’s respective Derby. And if you’re handicapping at home, you don’t have to take the slop into account. Unlike the past few Kentucky Derbys, which have been soaked with rain, the simulated edition will be run under ideal conditions.
“Since it’s a fantasy, it’s sunny and 75 and we have a fast track,” Rogers said.
This virtual race has already been run. Rogers said only two people at Churchill Downs know the result. He estimated a similar number of people on the NBC Sports production crew, as well as a small number at Inspired Entertainment, had also seen it.
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Need somebody on the inside with the scoopComment -
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I'm not sure I'd personally recommend offering odds on trust the gaming company & racecourse people & NBC can all keep it a secret. But can't hurt to ask..Comment -
How does that horse that holds the record for fastest time in all three triple crown races lose?Comment -
Boom baby. Make it rain hot gushing points all over my back..Comment -
interesting theory but do not trust that it is legitComment -
so if you take the NBA analogy my bet would be one of the +800 leaning towards Affirmed and I am sure you can shop prices since many are offeringComment -
Hell yes I am. 3 for 100 obvComment -
Secretariat still lost 5 races in his career.Comment -
Taking chalkComment -
not even sure that's legit as back to citation and before it was common to run more frequently than modern times..so really not a fair comparison..if you stick with a modern horse after secretariat affirmed had the most starts and also the closest time to secretariats of the bunchComment -
so best chance to win is to bet the "long shots"Comment
