2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[JohnGalt2341]

I know we've all heard this before but if Trump doesn't win both Florida and Pennsylvania his chances of winning the election are slim to none.

I took a look at 5Dimes state by state(and DC) odds and I narrowed down the 10 states that are the closest according to the current odds. Of the 41 states with odds of -350 or more Trump is winning 21 of them for 164 delegates. Dem's are winning 20 states for 229 delegates. There are 145 delegates remaining in the 10 closest contested states.

Trump needs 106 of the remaining 145 delegates and Dems need 41. Below are the 10 states that are the most closely contested and their number of delegates.

States Trump is favored:
Georgia -190 16
Iowa -210 6
North Carolina -130 15
Ohio -170 18

States Dems are favored:
Arizona -160 11
Florida -140 29
Michigan -295 16
New Hampshire -270 4
Pennsylvania -265 20
Wisconsin -215 10

If the -350's or higher hold up, then Trump needs to win at least 6 of the closest contested states to have any chance at all. There might be a couple -350's or higher that flip but I doubt there will be many. If 5Dimes is wrong on any of the -350's or higher... which states do you think that they are wrong about? If they are not wrong... which of the 10 states above do you think Trump wins?

[JohnGalt2341]

I just realized that it wouldn't be entirely unheard of for there to a be a 269 vote tie.

If Trump wins all the states where he's favored by -350 or more and the Dems also win all the states where they are favored by -350 or more... AND Trump wins the states below:

Georgia -190 16
Iowa -210 6
North Carolina -130 15
Ohio -170 18
Arizona +120 11
Florida + 100 29
Wisconsin +165 10

And Dems Win:
Michigan -295 16
New Hampshire -270 4
Pennsylvania -265 20

Then it would be a 269 tie. With everything that has gone on this year a 269 tie wouldn't surprise me at all.

[ace7550]

How was he favored in those 10 states in the last election?

[jjgold]

Too early odds mean
nothing right now once Biden in the public it’s going to get real close

[Unrivaled]

The less Biden speaks, the better for him.

[Mike Huntertz]

I always enjoy your number crunching......update if warranted.
Thanxs.

I know we've all heard this before but if Trump doesn't win both Florida and Pennsylvania his chances of winning the election are slim to none.

I took a look at 5Dimes state by state(and DC) odds and I narrowed down the 10 states that are the closest according to the current odds. Of the 41 states with odds of -350 or more Trump is winning 21 of them for 164 delegates. Dem's are winning 20 states for 229 delegates. There are 145 delegates remaining in the 10 closest contested states.

Trump needs 106 of the remaining 145 delegates and Dems need 41. Below are the 10 states that are the most closely contested and their number of delegates.

States Trump is favored:
Georgia -190 16
Iowa -210 6
North Carolina -130 15
Ohio -170 18

States Dems are favored:
Arizona -160 11
Florida -140 29
Michigan -295 16
New Hampshire -270 4
Pennsylvania -265 20
Wisconsin -215 10

If the -350's or higher hold up, then Trump needs to win at least 6 of the closest contested states to have any chance at all. There might be a couple -350's or higher that flip but I doubt there will be many. If 5Dimes is wrong on any of the -350's or higher... which states do you think that they are wrong about? If they are not wrong... which of the 10 states above do you think Trump wins?

[Mike Huntertz]

The less Biden speaks, the better for him.

Absolutely......let your opponent beat himself.

[clockwise1965]

If Biden just stays quiet he may win.

[thetrinity]

Don’t forget Nebraska and Maine r split delegate states. There was a scenario where I had 269 each. I think it was trump winning all the tossups except pa and wi. I said in other thread think he gets fla az and will come down to pa wi mi and nc. Doubt any off the list flip barring some kind of world war or civil war

[JIBBBY]

Hillary is a lock in 2016 they said and the polls and CNN told us this!!!.. Take your polls and shove them up your asss fake news media!!!

Trump voters don't poll.. Remember that!! I'm one of them and I never polled in my life..

[lakerboy]

The less Biden speaks, the better for him.

His next sentence should be on inauguration day.

[JIBBBY]

It's REALLY sad when you have to hope your Presidential candidate running for office doesn't have to speak..

That is all I have to say about that..



Keeping it real!!!

[Mike Huntertz]

It's sadder when you hope your president doesn't speak. The whole world is still laughing at injecting disinfectant as a COVID cure!
Check out international news channels or newspapers. The US Prez is a worldwide laughing stock.
They still do bits on...it will go away in the spring, like a miracle! They are quite funny.

It's REALLY sad when you have to hope your Presidential candidate running for office doesn't have to speak..

That is all I have to say about that..



Keeping it real!!!

[JIBBBY]

I will leave you American boys with this of all ages.. AMERICA!!! I'm a patriot!!!

Let that American Flag fly!! Proud and with honor!!!

Fock these BLM and young punk libs I say... I'm old school.. GOD BLESS...

[BrickJames]

just like in 2016 when Trump was a 15 to 1 dog.

Dems are done. No chance.

[vitterd]

just like in 2016 when Trump was a 15 to 1 dog.

Dems are done. No chance.

This isnt 2016. Trump has to run on his record now and that record is dogshit. He can’t rely on stupid nicknames, james comey, Hillary emails. This thing is over. Trump is finished and off to jail he goes.

[carolinakid]

Trump will carry NC, that i can tell the posters here.....................

[Bcatswin]

Lol @ off to jail

[BrickJames]

This isnt 2016. Trump has to run on his record now and that record is dogshit. He can’t rely on stupid nicknames, james comey, Hillary emails. This thing is over. Trump is finished and off to jail he goes.

You would really want a retarded pedophile that can barely speak in cognitive sentences before trump?

Wow dude, your TDS is off the charts.

[Unrivaled]

Arizona -160 for the dems? Hahahahaha I just can't with this polling.

[mtneer1212]

This isnt 2016. Trump has to run on his record now and that record is dogshit. He can’t rely on stupid nicknames, james comey, Hillary emails. This thing is over. Trump is finished and off to jail he goes.

Correct. The non-politician is now a politician, and his swamp stinks just as bad. And I'm a Republican.

[MinnesotaFats]

The only way Dems lose the WH & the Senate is if Biden actually has to speak or debate.

Trump is finished.

Party better off w Pence/ Haley

[Ian]

Personally, I think this election will be very close. Trump is deeply unpopular, but the pandemic has drastically slowed new voter registration and could crush turnout in November. Low turnout elections generally help Republicans so that could counteract Trump's unpopularity.

Even though Democrats are slight favorites in most swing states, the results are fairly coordinated. In 2016 Clinton's popularity took a huge hit when James Comey announced the FBI was reopening the email case days before the election. This caused her to simultaneously nosedive in several states where she was favored. If a similar scandal or event effected either Trump or Biden before the election all the swing states could flip to one candidate or the other.

Just my opinion...

[GUMMO77]

You would really want a retarded pedophile that can barely speak

God no.

That’s why Trump needs to leave.

[HockeyRocks]

Personally, I think this election will be very close. Trump is deeply unpopular, but the pandemic has drastically slowed new voter registration and could crush turnout in November. Low turnout elections generally help Republicans so that could counteract Trump's unpopularity.

Even though Democrats are slight favorites in most swing states, the results are fairly coordinated. In 2016 Clinton's popularity took a huge hit when James Comey announced the FBI was reopening the email case days before the election. This caused her to simultaneously nosedive in several states where she was favored. If a similar scandal or event effected either Trump or Biden before the election all the swing states could flip to one candidate or the other.

Just my opinion...

Just a reminder:

Democrats will stand in line for hours to vote no matter the elements, example, the latest elections in Wis and Ga. If polls don't move much between now and Nov., older Republicans will stay home.

[HockeyRocks]

God no.

That’s why Trump needs to leave.

Nice Smackdown...

[Mr KLC]

[JohnGalt2341]

Hillary is a lock in 2016 they said and the polls and CNN told us this!!!.. Take your polls and shove them up your asss fake news media!!!

Trump voters don't poll.. Remember that!! I'm one of them and I never polled in my life..

Arizona -160 for the dems? Hahahahaha I just can't with this polling.

This isn't polls. This is 5Dimes. There are only 1 of 2 things possible here.

#1 The 5Dimes prices below are WAY OFF which would mean that there are FANTASTIC betting opportunities below for Trump supporters.

#2. 5Dimes is right and Trump will likely lose the election.

It has to be one or the other. Which is it? My gut tells me that Trump supporters think that it's #1. So... which of the prices below are "WAY OFF"?

2020 US Presidential Election - Electoral Votes Winner
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		501 Republican Nominee wins Alabama		-2600
8:00AM		502 Democratic Nominee wins Alabama		+1200
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		503 Republican Nominee wins Alaska		-975
8:00AM		504 Democratic Nominee wins Alaska		+525
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		505 Republican Nominee wins Arizona		+120
8:00AM		506 Democratic Nominee wins Arizona		-160
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		507 Republican Nominee wins Arkansas		-1700
8:00AM		508 Democratic Nominee wins Arkansas		+800
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		509 Republican Nominee wins California		+1850
8:00AM		510 Democratic Nominee wins California		-5550
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		511 Republican Nominee wins Colorado		+500
8:00AM		512 Democratic Nominee wins Colorado		-900
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		513 Republican Nominee wins Connecticut		+850
8:00AM		514 Democratic Nominee wins Connecticut		-1750
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		515 Republican Nominee wins Delaware		+1200
8:00AM		516 Democratic Nominee wins Delaware		-2600
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		517 Republican Nominee wins Dist of Columbia		+3150
8:00AM		518 Democratic Nominee wins Dist of Columbia		-11450
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		519 Republican Nominee wins Florida		-120
8:00AM		520 Democratic Nominee wins Florida		-120
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		521 Republican Nominee wins Georgia		-190
8:00AM		522 Democratic Nominee wins Georgia		+150
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		523 Republican Nominee wins Hawaii		+2050
8:00AM		524 Democratic Nominee wins Hawaii		-6150
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		525 Republican Nominee wins Idaho		-5400
8:00AM		526 Democratic Nominee wins Idaho		+1800
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		527 Republican Nominee wins Illinois		+1375
8:00AM		528 Democratic Nominee wins Illinois		-3425
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		529 Republican Nominee wins Indiana		-900
8:00AM		530 Democratic Nominee wins Indiana		+500
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		531 Republican Nominee wins Iowa		-210
8:00AM		532 Democratic Nominee wins Iowa		+160
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		533 Republican Nominee wins Kansas		-1200
8:00AM		534 Democratic Nominee wins Kansas		+600
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		535 Republican Nominee wins Kentucky		-1500
8:00AM		536 Democratic Nominee wins Kentucky		+700
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		537 Republican Nominee wins Louisiana		-2000
8:00AM		538 Democratic Nominee wins Louisiana		+1000
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		539 Republican Nominee wins Maine		+325
8:00AM		540 Democratic Nominee wins Maine		-475
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		541 Republican Nominee wins Maryland		+1100
8:00AM		542 Democratic Nominee wins Maryland		-2300
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		543 Republican Nominee wins Massachusetts		+1450
8:00AM		544 Democratic Nominee wins Massachusetts		-4050
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		545 Republican Nominee wins Michigan		+215
8:00AM		546 Democratic Nominee wins Michigan		-295
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		547 Republican Nominee wins Minnesota		+220
8:00AM		548 Democratic Nominee wins Minnesota		-300
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		549 Republican Nominee wins Mississippi		-1500
8:00AM		550 Democratic Nominee wins Mississippi		+700
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		551 Republican Nominee wins Missouri		-750
8:00AM		552 Democratic Nominee wins Missouri		+450
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		553 Republican Nominee wins Montana		-900
8:00AM		554 Democratic Nominee wins Montana		+500
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		555 Republican Nominee wins Nebraska		-2300
8:00AM		556 Democratic Nominee wins Nebraska		+1100
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		557 Republican Nominee wins Nevada		+330
8:00AM		558 Democratic Nominee wins Nevada		-490
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		559 Republican Nominee wins New Hampshire		+190
8:00AM		560 Democratic Nominee wins New Hampshire		-270
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		561 Republican Nominee wins New Jersey		+700
8:00AM		562 Democratic Nominee wins New Jersey		-1500
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		563 Republican Nominee wins New Mexico		+550
8:00AM		564 Democratic Nominee wins New Mexico		-1050
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		565 Republican Nominee wins New York		+2100
8:00AM		566 Democratic Nominee wins New York		-6300
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		567 Republican Nominee wins North Carolina		-130
8:00AM		568 Democratic Nominee wins North Carolina		-110
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		569 Republican Nominee wins North Dakota		-2600
8:00AM		570 Democratic Nominee wins North Dakota		+1200
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		571 Republican Nominee wins Ohio		-170
8:00AM		572 Democratic Nominee wins Ohio		+130
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		573 Republican Nominee wins Oklahoma		-2600
8:00AM		574 Democratic Nominee wins Oklahoma		+1200
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		575 Republican Nominee wins Oregon		+900
8:00AM		576 Democratic Nominee wins Oregon		-1850
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		577 Republican Nominee wins Pennsylvania		+185
8:00AM		578 Democratic Nominee wins Pennsylvania		-265
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		579 Republican Nominee wins Rhode Island		+950
8:00AM		580 Democratic Nominee wins Rhode Island		-1950
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		581 Republican Nominee wins South Carolina		-900
8:00AM		582 Democratic Nominee wins South Carolina		+500
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		583 Republican Nominee wins South Dakota		-1850
8:00AM		584 Democratic Nominee wins South Dakota		+900
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		585 Republican Nominee wins Tennessee		-1500
8:00AM		586 Democratic Nominee wins Tennessee		+700
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		587 Republican Nominee wins Texas		-375
8:00AM		588 Democratic Nominee wins Texas		+259
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		589 Republican Nominee wins Utah		-975
8:00AM		590 Democratic Nominee wins Utah		+525
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		591 Republican Nominee wins Vermont		+1500
8:00AM		592 Democratic Nominee wins Vermont		-4500
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		593 Republican Nominee wins Virginia		+500
8:00AM		594 Democratic Nominee wins Virginia		-900
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		595 Republican Nominee wins Washington		+1150
8:00AM		596 Democratic Nominee wins Washington		-2450
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		597 Republican Nominee wins West Virginia		-2600
8:00AM		598 Democratic Nominee wins West Virginia		+1200
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		599 Republican Nominee wins Wisconsin		+165
8:00AM		600 Democratic Nominee wins Wisconsin		-215
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		601 Republican Nominee wins Wyoming		-3600
8:00AM		602 Democratic Nominee wins Wyoming		+1400

[JMobile]

The less Biden speaks, the better for him.

We'll see how he does in the debates.

[floridagolfer]

I just realized that it wouldn't be entirely unheard of for there to a be a 269 vote tie.

If Trump wins all the states where he's favored by -350 or more and the Dems also win all the states where they are favored by -350 or more... AND Trump wins the states below:

Georgia -190 16
Iowa -210 6
North Carolina -130 15
Ohio -170 18
Arizona +120 11
Florida + 100 29
Wisconsin +165 10

And Dems Win:
Michigan -295 16
New Hampshire -270 4
Pennsylvania -265 20

Then it would be a 269 tie. With everything that has gone on this year a 269 tie wouldn't surprise me at all.

Trump winning Arizona? That's delusional.

[Hman]

just like in 2016 when Trump was a 15 to 1 dog.

Dems are done. No chance.

I was about to say haven't we learned from the first time around that you can't take anymore these numbers seriously

[vitterd]

You would really want a retarded pedophile that can barely speak in cognitive sentences before trump?

Wow dude, your TDS is off the charts.

Trump is retarded and has been banging his own daughter for decades.

[RudyRuetigger]

It's sadder when you hope your president doesn't speak. The whole world is still laughing at injecting disinfectant as a COVID cure!
Check out international news channels or newspapers. The US Prez is a worldwide laughing stock.
They still do bits on...it will go away in the spring, like a miracle! They are quite funny.

youve been proven a clown time and time again

yet you keep typing

[JohnGalt2341]

I was about to say haven't we learned from the first time around that you can't take anymore these numbers seriously

It's possible that you could be right but I think it's foolish to just ASSUME that the Books will be way off because of what happened last time.

Let's consider this... on any given Saturday or Sunday during football season the Books are going to get AT LEAST one game wrong and a big underdog wins. Because of this... should we just assume that they will always be wrong in every single game?

When you consider how good a sportsbook is it's probably a good idea to consider how they do as a whole... not just one event. Trump was a complete novelty back in 2016. This is why the Books were way off back then. Novelty's are a Books weakness most of the time. Trump is no longer a novelty. I would be very surprised if any of the major Books didn't consider what happened last time when they are setting their lines.

But let's just assume that I am wrong and the Books are most definitely underestimating Trump like all of his followers are suggesting. This means that there is GREAT VALUE on Trump at +150. If Trump is a "guaranteed lock" like most of his followers on here suggest... then there should be a 500 page thread about his +150 price. But there is not. My question for you is... if +150 for Trump is such a great value then why aren't his supporters going nuts over this price?

Could it be... because deep down they suspect that the line is sharp?

[RudyRuetigger]

Could it be... because deep down they suspect that the line is sharp?

no dumbass

its because noone wants to keep money pending until november in a book that might not even be around