2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[Art Vandelay]

If Biden just stays quiet he may win.

True, but he will have to debate at some point. Now that will be must-see TV!

[JohnGalt2341]

no dumbass

its because noone wants to keep money pending until november in a book that might not even be around

That's it huh? So... according to you all the Trump supporters on SBR are afraid that 5Dimes won't exist in 4 months? Makes perfect sense... I'll take my chances.
Let's keep in mind that I think Trump has roughly a 45% chance of winning. I don't think my bets above are a lock by any means... however... do they have value? Well... considering that the price is now -170 I would say Yes, they do.

I haven't seen 1 single screen shot from ANY Trump supporters that have bet on him. There are 100's of people on SBR that GUARANTEE Trump's victory... and not a single one of them has posted a screenshot of them betting on Trump. You're telling me it's because they think 5Dimes will be out of business in 4 months? I'm not buying it. It's either because they don't believe their own words... or they are broke.

[ace7550]

Hey John Galt,
This is a good thread (minus the name calling). I do think Trump has good value in many of the swing states. Not necessarily because he will win, but because those numbers will get closer to even odds at some point before the election and there will be some good arbs available. That being said I don't rally want to tie my money up for 5 months either.
Also, 5dimes will definitely be around in 5 months. That's as much of a lock as you're going to get.

[RudyRuetigger]

Hey John Galt,
This is a good thread (minus the name calling). I do think Trump has good value in many of the swing states. Not necessarily because he will win, but because those numbers will get closer to even odds at some point before the election and there will be some good arbs available. That being said I don't rally want to tie my money up for 5 months either.
Also, 5dimes will definitely be around in 5 months. That's as much of a lock as you're going to get.

thats what i said, minus the typo

[ace7550]

I just realized that it wouldn't be entirely unheard of for there to a be a 269 vote tie.

If Trump wins all the states where he's favored by -350 or more and the Dems also win all the states where they are favored by -350 or more... AND Trump wins the states below:

Georgia -190 16
Iowa -210 6
North Carolina -130 15
Ohio -170 18
Arizona +120 11
Florida + 100 29
Wisconsin +165 10

And Dems Win:
Michigan -295 16
New Hampshire -270 4
Pennsylvania -265 20

Then it would be a 269 tie. With everything that has gone on this year a 269 tie wouldn't surprise me at all.

If this were to happen then the tie would be broken like this:
In these instances, the presidential election is decided in the U.S. House of Representatives in a “contingent election,” with each state delegation having one vote. Only the top three candidates in terms of electoral vote are considered. Whichever candidate can win the majority of states, or 26, becomes the president.Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate elects the vice president but only the top two candidates are considered. Whichever candidate wins the majority of senators, or 51, becomes vice president.
Thus, we would probably end up with Trump as president and a democrat as VP. Would be pretty amazing!

[ace7550]

thats what i said, minus the typo

Yes and I agree with you. But you also said that no one wants to keep money in a book that might not be around. I'm not worried about any particular sports book going bust. I just don't want my money tied up for months.

[RudyRuetigger]

Yes and I agree with you. But you also said that no one wants to keep money in a book that might not be around. I'm not worried about any particular sports book going bust. I just don't want my money tied up for months.

we will see when major sports get canceled again

[ace7550]

That's it huh? So... according to you all the Trump supporters on SBR are afraid that 5Dimes won't exist in 4 months? Makes perfect sense... I'll take my chances.
Let's keep in mind that I think Trump has roughly a 45% chance of winning. I don't think my bets above are a lock by any means... however... do they have value? Well... considering that the price is now -170 I would say Yes, they do.

I haven't seen 1 single screen shot from ANY Trump supporters that have bet on him. There are 100's of people on SBR that GUARANTEE Trump's victory... and not a single one of them has posted a screenshot of them betting on Trump. You're telling me it's because they think 5Dimes will be out of business in 4 months? I'm not buying it. It's either because they don't believe their own words... or they are broke.

Out of curiosity, will you hedge these bets?

[RudyRuetigger]

Out of curiosity, will you hedge these bets?

he is a college professor

never trust those clowns

[JohnGalt2341]

Out of curiosity, will you hedge these bets?

More than likely I won't. My feeling right now is.... if you can get +100 or better betting AGAINST Trump then I think it's a good value. My feeling is... in the next 4 months there will be AT LEAST one black swan that is really going to shake things up. I have no idea what the black swan will be but I'm nearly certain that it is coming. So... we'll see what happens when the black swan occurs... the black swan could either help or hurt Trump but as of right now I give Trump about a 45% chance of winning and the books are giving him roughly a 40% chance so... I'll stick with my bets for now. I'm curious to see what happens to the lines after the first debate.

[Mike Huntertz]

I concur. Hold on for a while and see. I've got Dem's at even /-110 and will ride it for a while. Hedge is now viable but I'll wait.
I also expect the unexpected...........someone gets COVID?....
GL

More than likely I won't. My feeling right now is.... if you can get +100 or better betting AGAINST Trump then I think it's a good value. My feeling is... in the next 4 months there will be AT LEAST one black swan that is really going to shake things up. I have no idea what the black swan will be but I'm nearly certain that it is coming. So... we'll see what happens when the black swan occurs... the black swan could either help or hurt Trump but as of right now I give Trump about a 45% chance of winning and the books are giving him roughly a 40% chance so... I'll stick with my bets for now. I'm curious to see what happens to the lines after the first debate.

[JohnGalt2341]

5Dimes must have saw this thread... Trump is now at +155. That's a No Juice line of +/-162.27 or approximately 38%. This line is moving 5 points nearly every other day now. I can't wait to see what Trump does when he gets really desperate.

Tue 11/3		111 Republican wins Presidential Election		+155
8:00AM		112 Democrat wins Presidential Election		-175

[Mike Huntertz]

If it gets to -200 I'll be hedging some.

5Dimes must have saw this thread... Trump is now at +155. That's a No Juice line of +/-162.27 or approximately 38%. This line is moving 5 points nearly every other day now. I can't wait to see what Trump does when he gets really desperate.

Tue 11/3		111 Republican wins Presidential Election		+155
8:00AM		112 Democrat wins Presidential Election		-175

[vitterd]

Gotta watch for trump Hail Mary coming up. Fake vaccine. He will get desperate as he sees he can’t win and prison awaits him.

[JohnGalt2341]

Gotta watch for trump Hail Mary coming up. Fake vaccine. He will get desperate as he sees he can’t win and prison awaits him.

Trump's going to be throwing up Hail Mary's left and right for the next 4 months. I predict that we will be over 200K Covid-19 deaths by the first debate. Trump will declare this a victory and will claim that it would have been in the millions if he wasn't in charge. Even though Trump has done very little in regards to Covid-19. He'll use this tactic several times during the debates. "If Biden was in charge...blah blah blah it would be really bad... blah blah blah...Sleepy Joe...blah blah blah". His supporters will eat it up and say Trump "BURIED!" Biden last night.

Trump's only chance right now is if Biden has several gaffe's that are even worse than all of his previous gaffe's. Even then... I think Trump is going to need a lot of help. These debates are going to be sad, really sad. Other countries will wonder "Is this REALLY their top 2? I've never seen anything so pathetic."

It's pretty sad when our presidency is going to be decided on which candidate looks less like a fool.

[Mike Huntertz]

[QUOTE=JohnGalt2341;29534002] Trump's going to be throwing up Hail Mary's left and right for the next 4 months. I predict that we will be over 200K Covid-19 deaths by the first debate. Trump will declare this a victory and will claim that it would have been in the millions if he wasn't in charge. Even though Trump has done very little in regards to Covid-19. He'll use this tactic several times during the debates. "If Biden was in charge...blah blah blah it would be really bad... blah blah blah...Sleepy Joe...blah blah blah". His supporters will eat it up and say Trump "BURIED!" Biden last night.

Trump's only chance right now is if Biden has several gaffe's that are even worse than all of his previous gaffe's. Even then... I think Trump is going to need a lot of help. These debates are going to be sad, really sad. Other countries will wonder "Is this REALLY their top 2? I've never seen anything so pathetic."

It's pretty sad when our presidency is going to be decided on which candidate looks less like a fool.

It won't be a shock to the rest of the world, they already think America is a gong show. I've been watching Al Jazeera and BBC and it's embarrassing. One old fool versus a stupid narcissist to be the most powerful man in the world.......sad times.

[ace7550]

You could vote for a third party? I've voted in every election and I've never voted for the dem or repub candidate. I live in CA. It doesn't much matter who I vote for anyways.

[Itsamazing777]

Tons of states are going to opposite of whats said
Florida meaningless

[BOA12]

You could vote for a third party? I've voted in every election and I've never voted for the dem or repub candidate. I live in CA. It doesn't much matter who I vote for anyways.

Super Evil backs all 3rd parties, cancels votes. Suppression By Design.

[JohnGalt2341]

Tons of states are going to opposite of whats said
Florida meaningless

If this is true... .and it may very well be... it means that there is some really terrific betting opportunities out there right now for Trump to win some of the states where he is a HUGE dog. Name a few. Give me 3 at least.

I think the chances of Trump winning without Florida are slim to none. If anyone wants to wager me on this let me know.

[Itsamazing777]

Michigan and Pennsylvania are locks for Trump

[carolinakid]

Rona is working hard in her home state Mich. and i hope we can get it like in 2016

[RudyRuetigger]

Michigan and Pennsylvania are locks for Trump

id think wisconsin michigan could easily go to trump..thats MY OPINION



id lean more towards minnesota than pennslyvania for trump

[JohnGalt2341]

Michigan and Pennsylvania are locks for Trump

I have $500 wagered AGAINST Trump to win the election at either +120 or +130 and and I think my chances of winning are approximately 55%.

You're saying MI and PA are LOCKS for Trump. Let's take a look at the current odds below:

Tue 11/3		545 Republican Nominee wins Michigan		+215
8:00AM		546 Democratic Nominee wins Michigan		-295

Tue 11/3		577 Republican Nominee wins Pennsylvania		+185
8:00AM		578 Democratic Nominee wins Pennsylvania		-265

You must have a FORTUNE bet on these 2 LOCKS right here. What a value!!!! How much do you have wagered on the bets above?

Let me guess... you are going to say something like "I don't like having my money tied up". Let me ask you this... if your bank offered you a special that if you deposited $100 in a special account and you could withdraw it in 4 months and it would now be $200 would you take that deal? I know I would. The dogs above that you are calling "LOCKS" are paying even more!!! So... how much do you have wagered on the dogs above?

Serious question here... do the Trump supporters on SBR even gamble? I have yet to see a single screen shot of anyone even betting on Trump. I would think that if they were going to bet on ANYTHING... it would be "LOCKS" like the bets above.

Is it because they don't like their money being "held up"?

Is it because they think 5Dimes will be out of business in 4 months?

OR... is it because they don't believe any of their own non-sense?

[Itsamazing777]

I have $500 wagered AGAINST Trump to win the election at either +120 or +130 and and I think my chances of winning are approximately 55%.

You're saying MI and PA are LOCKS for Trump. Let's take a look at the current odds below:

Tue 11/3		545 Republican Nominee wins Michigan		+215
8:00AM		546 Democratic Nominee wins Michigan		-295

Tue 11/3		577 Republican Nominee wins Pennsylvania		+185
8:00AM		578 Democratic Nominee wins Pennsylvania		-265

You must have a FORTUNE bet on these 2 LOCKS right here. What a value!!!! How much do you have wagered on the bets above?

Let me guess... you are going to say something like "I don't like having my money tied up". Let me ask you this... if your bank offered you a special that if you deposited $100 in a special account and you could withdraw it in 4 months and it would now be $200 would you take that deal? I know I would. The dogs above that you are calling "LOCKS" are paying even more!!! So... how much do you have wagered on the dogs above?

Serious question here... do the Trump supporters on SBR even gamble? I have yet to see a single screen shot of anyone even betting on Trump. I would think that if they were going to bet on ANYTHING... it would be "LOCKS" like the bets above.

Is it because they don't like their money being "held up"?

Is it because they think 5Dimes will be out of business in 4 months?

OR... is it because they don't believe any of their own non-sense?

As a recovering gambling addict, whose last wager was December 31. It would be unwise for me to do so.
The thrill and rush would certainly send me into a downward spiral of payday loans and near ruin.

So i will have to decline your offer.

I dont miss it at all.

[RudyRuetigger]

no doubt galt is a professor

[JohnGalt2341]

id think wisconsin michigan could easily go to trump..thats MY OPINION



id lean more towards minnesota than pennslyvania for trump

Here you go:

Tue 11/3		599 Republican Nominee wins Wisconsin		+190
8:00AM		600 Democratic Nominee wins Wisconsin		-270

Tue 11/3		545 Republican Nominee wins Michigan		+215
8:00AM		546 Democratic Nominee wins Michigan		-295
graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		547 Republican Nominee wins Minnesota		+250
8:00AM		548 Democratic Nominee wins Minnesota		-350

You could start 3 separate threads with the bets above.
You could call them something like "Rudy's BIG TIME political bets".

[RudyRuetigger]

im not betting them and everyone knows there is no such thing as a "lock" at these odds

you try to use random gambling talk and turn it into a realistic bank situation

you are so far gone off the deep end it is sad

i really hope you arent a professor though

[JohnGalt2341]

im not betting them and everyone knows there is no such thing as a "lock" at these odds

you try to use random gambling talk and turn it into a realistic bank situation

you are so far gone off the deep end it is sad

i really hope you arent a professor though

Apparently itsamazing777 doesn't know.

Far gone off the deep end? How so? Look at the first post in this thread... is anything in that first post incorrect?

Tell me which post in this thread that makes you think I am "far gone off the deep end".

[ace7550]

I have $500 wagered AGAINST Trump to win the election at either +120 or +130 and and I think my chances of winning are approximately 55%.

You're saying MI and PA are LOCKS for Trump. Let's take a look at the current odds below:

Tue 11/3		545 Republican Nominee wins Michigan		+215
8:00AM		546 Democratic Nominee wins Michigan		-295

Tue 11/3		577 Republican Nominee wins Pennsylvania		+185
8:00AM		578 Democratic Nominee wins Pennsylvania		-265

You must have a FORTUNE bet on these 2 LOCKS right here. What a value!!!! How much do you have wagered on the bets above?

Let me guess... you are going to say something like "I don't like having my money tied up". Let me ask you this... if your bank offered you a special that if you deposited $100 in a special account and you could withdraw it in 4 months and it would now be $200 would you take that deal? I know I would. The dogs above that you are calling "LOCKS" are paying even more!!! So... how much do you have wagered on the dogs above?

Serious question here... do the Trump supporters on SBR even gamble? I have yet to see a single screen shot of anyone even betting on Trump. I would think that if they were going to bet on ANYTHING... it would be "LOCKS" like the bets above.

Is it because they don't like their money being "held up"?

Is it because they think 5Dimes will be out of business in 4 months?

OR... is it because they don't believe any of their own non-sense?

I don't think any of these swing states is a lock for Biden or Trump. I do think that there are some great values for Trump right now though. I don't ever bet anything that's more than 2 weeks out. I can make more money arbing day to day.
I will definitely make more money arbing over the next 4 months than I would off a Trump bet no matter the value.
Your bank analogy has some validity but the bank is an actual "lock" while the Trump bets are certainly not.
That being said, if my bank offered me a 100% return on $100 in 4 months of course I would take it. And if anyone truly feels that Trump winning any given swing state is a lock they should be putting down some big action.

[RudyRuetigger]

im not betting them and everyone knows there is no such thing as a "lock" at these odds

you try to use random gambling talk and turn it into a realistic bank situation

you are so far gone off the deep end it is sad

i really hope you arent a professor though

the guy said he isnt betting and is an addict

everyone knew he wasnt declaring it a real 100% guarantee anyhow....except you somehow

like i said..............
you try to use random gambling talk and turn it into a realistic bank situation

you are so far gone off the deep end it is sad

[RudyRuetigger]

the guy said he isnt betting and is an addict

everyone knew he wasnt declaring it a real 100% guarantee anyhow....except you somehow

like i said..............
you try to use random gambling talk and turn it into a realistic bank situation

you are so far gone off the deep end it is sad

by the way, if you want to talk about real LOCKS, go back and look at hillary posters in 2016

thanks professor

[Itsamazing777]

Pretty much each poster is saying their party is a lock
We dont know whats true until its over

[ace7550]

by the way, if you want to talk about real LOCKS, go back and look at hillary posters in 2016

thanks professor

This is why I feel Trump has a lot of value. It feels like 2016 again. Except the dems actually managed to come up with a worse candidate than Hilary.
Trump was underestimated in 2016 big time. I would be careful making the same mistake.
By the way, I'm not a repub or a dem. Just trying to objectively call it the way I see it.

[BOA12]

Pretty much each poster is saying their party is a lock
We dont know whats true until its over

Lockheads