2020 Election by State. Pick 5 upsets and win 500 points.

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  • JohnGalt2341
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-31-09
    • 9138

    #1
    2020 Election by State. Pick 5 upsets and win 500 points.
    I took the state by state odds from both 5Dimes and BetOnline and I turned them into No Juice lines and then converted them into percentages. In order to win the 500 points you must pick 5 upsets. If there is a tie, the person who predicted the single biggest upset(according to percentage) will win 500 points. If there is still a tie, the person who made their guesses first will win. There will be only one winner(or no winner). Below are the percent chances each candidate has of winning the states they are favored in according to the odds from both 5Dimes and BetOnline.

    Trump's favored:
    1. Idaho 94%
    2. Wyoming 93%
    3. North Dakota 93%
    4. Oklahoma 92%
    5. Louisiana 92%
    6. West Virginia 91%
    7. Nebraska 91%
    8. South Dakota 91%
    9. Mississippi 91%
    10. Tennessee 90%
    11. Kentucky 90%
    12. Alabama 90%
    13. Montana 89%
    14. Arkansas 89%
    15. Alaska 85%
    16. South Carolina 85%
    17. Kansas 84%
    18. Indiana 82%
    19. Missouri 82%
    20. Utah 82%
    21. Texas 70%
    22. Iowa 61%
    23. Georgia 57%
    24. Ohio 56%

    Dems win:
    1. Washington DC 98%
    2. California 96%
    3. New York 96%
    4. Hawaii 96%
    5. Vermont 95%
    6. Illinois 94%
    7. Massachusetts 94%
    8. Delaware 93%
    9. Maryland 92%
    10. Washington St. 92%
    11. Oregon 91%
    12. Rhode Island 91%
    13. New Jersey 91%
    14. Connecticut 87%
    15. Colorado 85%
    16. New Mexico 85%
    17. Virginia 82%
    18. Nevada 80%
    19. Maine 76%
    20. Minnesota 73%
    21. New Hampshire 72%
    22. Michigan 70%
    23. Pennsylvania 67%
    24. Wisconsin 63%
    25. Arizona 59%
    26. North Carolina 52%


    I didn't include Florida because you can get -105 at either 5Dimes or BetOnline for one side or the other. When making your predictions PLEASE use the format below.

    Trump wins:
    North Carolina 48%
    Arizona 41%
    Wisconsin 37%

    Dems win:
    Ohio 44%
    Georgia 43%

    You can pick all Dem upsets or all Trump upsets or a combination of the two. If more than 1 person gets 5 upsets correct, the person with the single biggest upset will win the 500 points. All predictions must be made before July 5th. One set of guesses per person, no editing!

    Good luck!
    Last edited by JohnGalt2341; 07-02-20, 12:54 PM.
  • RudyRuetigger
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-24-10
    • 65086

    #2
    oops

    read the fukkin percentages wrong

    you are making us do math?
    Comment
    • King Mayan
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 09-22-10
      • 21326

      #3
      Trumps favored in all the welfare states. Lol
      Comment
      • RudyRuetigger
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 08-24-10
        • 65086

        #4
        Originally posted by King Mayan
        Trumps favored in all the welfare states. Lol
        Here is a list of happiness according to the state you live in:

        1 Louisiana
        2 Hawaii
        3 Florida
        4 Tennessee
        5 Arizona
        6 Mississippi
        7 Montana
        8 South Carolina
        9 Alabama
        10 Maine
        11 Alaska
        12 North Carolina
        13 Wyoming
        14 Idaho
        15 South Dakota
        16 Texas
        17 Arkansas
        18 Vermont
        19 Georgia
        20 Oklahoma
        21 Colorado
        22 Delaware
        23 Utah
        24 New Mexico
        25 North Dakota
        26 Minnesota
        27 New Hampshire
        28 Virginia
        29 Wisconsin
        30 Oregon
        31 Iowa
        32 Kansas
        33 Nebraska
        34 West Virginia
        35 Kentucky
        36 Washington
        37 District of Columbia
        38 Missouri
        39 Nevada
        40 Maryland
        41 Pennsylvania
        42 Rhode Island
        43 Massachusetts
        44 Ohio
        45 Illinois
        46 California
        47 Indiana
        48 Michigan
        49 New Jersey
        50 Connecticut
        51 New York
        Comment
        • JohnGalt2341
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 12-31-09
          • 9138

          #5
          Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
          oops

          read the fukkin percentages wrong

          you are making us do math?
          Yes.
          Comment
          • pablo222
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-03-19
            • 8858

            #6
            Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
            Here is a list of happiness according to the state you live in:

            1 Louisiana
            2 Hawaii
            3 Florida
            4 Tennessee
            5 Arizona
            6 Mississippi
            7 Montana
            8 South Carolina
            9 Alabama
            10 Maine
            11 Alaska
            12 North Carolina
            13 Wyoming
            14 Idaho
            15 South Dakota
            16 Texas
            17 Arkansas
            18 Vermont
            19 Georgia
            20 Oklahoma
            21 Colorado
            22 Delaware
            23 Utah
            24 New Mexico
            25 North Dakota
            26 Minnesota
            27 New Hampshire
            28 Virginia
            29 Wisconsin
            30 Oregon
            31 Iowa
            32 Kansas
            33 Nebraska
            34 West Virginia
            35 Kentucky
            36 Washington
            37 District of Columbia
            38 Missouri
            39 Nevada
            40 Maryland
            41 Pennsylvania
            42 Rhode Island
            43 Massachusetts
            44 Ohio
            45 Illinois
            46 California
            47 Indiana
            48 Michigan
            49 New Jersey
            50 Connecticut
            51 New York
            Ignorance is bliss
            Comment
            • Slurry Pumper
              SBR MVP
              • 06-18-18
              • 2811

              #7
              O.K. I'll toss out there:

              Trump Wins:
              Michigan 30%
              Pennsylvania 33%
              Arizona 41%
              Nevada 20%

              Dems Win:
              South Carolina 15%
              By the way, Washington DC is not a state.
              Comment
              • PromiseLand
                SBR MVP
                • 08-30-12
                • 2464

                #8
                GOP Wins:

                Michigan 30%
                Pennsylvania 33%
                Wisconsin 37%
                Arizona 41%
                North Carolina 48%
                Comment
                • RudyRuetigger
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 08-24-10
                  • 65086

                  #9
                  Trump wins:
                  North Carolina 48%
                  Arizona 41%
                  Wisconsin 37%
                  Virginia 18%
                  Michigan 30%


                  Send mine to TRUMP 2024 campaign
                  Comment
                  • King Mayan
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 09-22-10
                    • 21326

                    #10
                    Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                    Here is a list of happiness according to the state you live in:

                    1 Louisiana
                    2 Hawaii
                    3 Florida
                    4 Tennessee
                    5 Arizona
                    6 Mississippi
                    7 Montana
                    8 South Carolina
                    9 Alabama
                    10 Maine
                    11 Alaska
                    12 North Carolina
                    13 Wyoming
                    14 Idaho
                    15 South Dakota
                    16 Texas
                    17 Arkansas
                    18 Vermont
                    19 Georgia
                    20 Oklahoma
                    21 Colorado
                    22 Delaware
                    23 Utah
                    24 New Mexico
                    25 North Dakota
                    26 Minnesota
                    27 New Hampshire
                    28 Virginia
                    29 Wisconsin
                    30 Oregon
                    31 Iowa
                    32 Kansas
                    33 Nebraska
                    34 West Virginia
                    35 Kentucky
                    36 Washington
                    37 District of Columbia
                    38 Missouri
                    39 Nevada
                    40 Maryland
                    41 Pennsylvania
                    42 Rhode Island
                    43 Massachusetts
                    44 Ohio
                    45 Illinois
                    46 California
                    47 Indiana
                    48 Michigan
                    49 New Jersey
                    50 Connecticut
                    51 New York
                    Yeah all the bigger economy states are unhappy. While all the retired or socialist program receivers live in the happy states. Makes sense.
                    Comment
                    • BarkingToad
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 08-31-08
                      • 5912

                      #11
                      Trump win
                      Minnesota 27
                      Michigan 30
                      Pennsylvania 33
                      Wisconsin 37
                      Arizona 41
                      Comment
                      • RudyRuetigger
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 08-24-10
                        • 65086

                        #12
                        Originally posted by King Mayan
                        Yeah all the bigger economy states are unhappy. While all the retired or socialist program receivers live in the happy states. Makes sense.

                        then vote republican you fukkin clown
                        Comment
                        • fried cheese
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-17-13
                          • 4459

                          #13
                          trump wins:
                          north carolina 48%
                          arizona 41%
                          wisconsin 37%
                          michigan 30%

                          biden wins:
                          georgia 43%
                          Comment
                          • DrunkHorseplayer
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 05-15-10
                            • 7719

                            #14
                            Texas 70% Trump
                            Georgia 57% Trump
                            Ohio 56% Trump
                            Wisconsin 63% Biden
                            Arizona 59% Biden
                            Comment
                            • RudyRuetigger
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 08-24-10
                              • 65086

                              #15
                              Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer
                              Texas 70% Trump
                              Georgia 57% Trump
                              Ohio 56% Trump
                              Wisconsin 63% Biden
                              Arizona 59% Biden
                              bro follow the guidelines

                              galt makes them as confusing as possible
                              Comment
                              • thetrinity
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-25-11
                                • 22430

                                #16
                                Originally posted by PromiseLand
                                GOP Wins:

                                Michigan 30%
                                Pennsylvania 33%
                                Wisconsin 37%
                                Arizona 41%
                                North Carolina 48%
                                He took mine o well
                                Comment
                                • JohnGalt2341
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 12-31-09
                                  • 9138

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                  bro follow the guidelines

                                  galt makes them as confusing as possible
                                  This is how you know that I'm not a Democrat, I'm making you put in a little bit of work to win these points. And as you can see... I put in the work as well. You followed my instructions perfectly... well done. I like your dog shot in Virginia...you can get it for +450 at 5Dimes right now. Good luck!
                                  Comment
                                  • seaborneq
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 09-08-06
                                    • 22556

                                    #18
                                    Biden wins Texas 30%
                                    Biden wins Georgia 43%
                                    Biden wins Ohio 44%
                                    Trump wins NC 44%
                                    Trump wins Minnesota 27%
                                    Comment
                                    • King Mayan
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 09-22-10
                                      • 21326

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

                                      then vote republican you fukkin clown
                                      Nah I’ll keep working to maintain your disability payments
                                      Comment
                                      • RudyRuetigger
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 08-24-10
                                        • 65086

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by JohnGalt2341
                                        This is how you know that I'm not a Democrat, I'm making you put in a little bit of work to win these points. And as you can see... I put in the work as well. You followed my instructions perfectly... well done. I like your dog shot in Virginia...you can get it for +450 at 5Dimes right now. Good luck!
                                        the problem here is, per usual, you want to make this a thinking game

                                        people dont post in players talk to think

                                        you are trying use data on this

                                        my opinion is that that data doesnt matter because everyone is relaxed
                                        Comment
                                        • RudyRuetigger
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 08-24-10
                                          • 65086

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by King Mayan
                                          Nah I’ll keep working to maintain your disability payments
                                          i hope not on roller coasters over 5'5

                                          although, you might sue for height discimination
                                          Comment
                                          • JohnGalt2341
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 12-31-09
                                            • 9138

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                            the problem here is, per usual, you want to make this a thinking game

                                            people dont post in players talk to think

                                            you are trying use data on this

                                            my opinion is that that data doesnt matter because everyone is relaxed
                                            Correct. If you want to play, you have to think. You are not required to play at all. If you have any problems with any of the rules then you don't have to play at all. Pretty simple. I can promise you 100% that I will never go into someones thread where they are giving away 500 points and complain to them about what is required to win the 500 points. That sounds like something a Democrat would do, but I see you do it all the time.

                                            Yes, I am using data. Okay... let me be honest with you about this. I've been following the states lines for the last few weeks. These lines are constantly moving. I wanted to take a snapshot of the lines being 4 months out of the election. Using 2 different Books and turning the best 2 prices into a No Juice line is a fairly easy way to see what is happening in terms of probability when you are 4 months out from the election. I am fully expecting there to be several upsets. If there is not... well... then... after the election I can come back to this thread and either say..."Wow!!! The books nailed almost everything over -350!" or "Wow!!! Look at how terribly the sportsbooks were at predicting the states 4 months out!"

                                            All of this... is useful to me. I simply turned it into a contest to make it fun.
                                            Last edited by JohnGalt2341; 07-02-20, 04:37 PM.
                                            Comment
                                            • RudyRuetigger
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 08-24-10
                                              • 65086

                                              #23
                                              Galt, do you think they are "predicting" or "balancing"

                                              you clearly already stated your opinion but after seeing the results, why would you consider one is right?

                                              seems you are determining the outcome as the true result and are judging books

                                              not fair since you dont know if they are predicting or balancing
                                              Comment
                                              • fried cheese
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-17-13
                                                • 4459

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by JohnGalt2341
                                                Correct. If you want to play, you have to think. You are not required to play at all. If you have any problems with any of the rules then you don't have to play at all. Pretty simple. I can promise you 100% that I will never go into someones thread where they are giving away 500 points and complain to them about what is required to win the 500 points. That sounds like something a Democrat would do, but I see you do it all the time.

                                                Yes, I am using data. Okay... let me be honest with you about this. I've been following the states lines for the last few weeks. These lines are constantly moving. I wanted to take a snapshot of the lines being 4 months out of the election. Using 2 different Books and turning the best 2 prices into a No Juice line is a fairly easy way to see what is happening in terms of probability when you are 4 months out from the election. I am fully expecting there to be several upsets. If there is not... well... then... after the election I can come back to this thread and either say..."Wow!!! The books nailed almost everything over -350!" or "Wow!!! Look at how terribly the sportsbooks were at predicting the states 4 months out!"

                                                All of this... is useful to me. I simply turned it into a contest to make it fun.


                                                rudy hates it when ppl are forced to read the rules for contests.
                                                Comment
                                                • RudyRuetigger
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 08-24-10
                                                  • 65086

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by fried cheese


                                                  rudy hates it when ppl are forced to read the rules for contests.
                                                  quit backing a democrat

                                                  i dont want the points

                                                  i said give it to trump 2024

                                                  fukkin clown
                                                  Comment
                                                  • fried cheese
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 09-17-13
                                                    • 4459

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                                    quit backing a democrat

                                                    i dont want the points

                                                    i said give it to trump 2024

                                                    fukkin clown
                                                    who ivanka or jr?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • RudyRuetigger
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 08-24-10
                                                      • 65086

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by fried cheese
                                                      who ivanka or jr?
                                                      you are a republican

                                                      im actually an INDEPENDENT that has to vote republican down the line this year

                                                      i dont want to hear shit from you

                                                      THANKS
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JohnGalt2341
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 12-31-09
                                                        • 9138

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                                        Galt, do you think they are "predicting" or "balancing"

                                                        you clearly already stated your opinion but after seeing the results, why would you consider one is right?

                                                        seems you are determining the outcome as the true result and are judging books

                                                        not fair since you dont know if they are predicting or balancing
                                                        Most likely it's a little bit of both. But it doesn't really matter to me what they are doing. I'm mostly just observing. After the election this thread will still be here. 4 years from now, this thread will still be here.

                                                        Do you think that is there anyway in any form that this thread could ever be useful to anyone in the future?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • fried cheese
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-17-13
                                                          • 4459

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                                          you are a republican

                                                          im actually an INDEPENDENT that has to vote republican down the line this year

                                                          i dont want to hear shit from you

                                                          THANKS
                                                          im not a republican. both parties are just corporate puppets.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Tanko
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 09-19-09
                                                            • 5140

                                                            #30
                                                            Dems win
                                                            Texas 30% - Had to pick one really long shot and this is it.
                                                            Iowa 39%
                                                            Georgia 43%
                                                            Ohio 44%

                                                            Trump Wins:
                                                            North Carolina 48%
                                                            Comment
                                                            • yisman
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 09-01-08
                                                              • 75682

                                                              #31
                                                              R win North Carolina 48%
                                                              R win Wisconsin 37%
                                                              R win Arizona 41%

                                                              D win Georgia 43%
                                                              D win Ohio 44%
                                                              [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                              [/quote]

                                                              [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                              Comment
                                                              • hawkeye 16
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 09-07-17
                                                                • 3553

                                                                #32
                                                                Dem's win
                                                                Iowa 39%
                                                                Ohio 44%
                                                                Georgia 43%

                                                                Trump wins:
                                                                North Carolina 48%
                                                                Arizona 41%
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EmpireMaker
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 06-18-09
                                                                  • 15561

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Trump wins:
                                                                  PA 33%



                                                                  Dems win:
                                                                  Ohio 44%
                                                                  Georgia 43%

                                                                  Texas 30%

                                                                  Iowa 39%
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ace7550
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-08-15
                                                                    • 3729

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Trump wins:
                                                                    North Carolina 48%
                                                                    Arizona 41%
                                                                    Pennsylvania 33%
                                                                    Nevada 20%

                                                                    Dems win:
                                                                    Ohio 44%

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • RudyRuetigger
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 08-24-10
                                                                      • 65086

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by fried cheese
                                                                      im not a republican. both parties are just corporate puppets.
                                                                      in this and last election cycle, if you vote.....you arent independent

                                                                      there is a clear cut line
                                                                      Comment
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