The S&P 500 will decide the presidential election, as usual........

**jjgold** · 07-05-20, 07:19 PM

Markets so strong and nobody understand why

Cities all empty

**JMobile** · 07-05-20, 07:32 PM

**johnnyvegas13** · 07-05-20, 07:54 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

Since 1928, the incumbent has won the election 87% of the time when the SPX was up in the 3 mos leading up to election day.

If the SPX is up then people don't need to directly own stocks in a portfolio to enjoy the gains as their 401Ks, IRA's and 529 plans will go up.

Americans vote with their pocketbook.

Expect Trump.

Good info

who was the pres who didn’t get re elect ?

**Tanko** · 07-05-20, 08:16 PM

Too many typos

**clockwise1965** · 07-05-20, 08:28 PM

Well let's just congratulate Trump now then.

**Brock Landers** · 07-05-20, 08:31 PM

LOL

How many elections were held during a pandemic?

**MinnesotaFats** · 07-05-20, 08:42 PM

Your October surprise could very likely be a 25% crash in the market as 3rd QTR numbers roll out and earnings are horseshit.

Trump is finished, he needs to follow lead of Ventura ala Minnesota '02 and step aside for a Moderate GOP like Pence or Mitt to run.

I feel both Pence or Romney would win a big election vs Biden

**SBR_Guest_Pro** · 07-05-20, 08:47 PM

Pence would suck as President

**Brock Landers** · 07-05-20, 08:55 PM

I'm. Surprised Trump hasn't quit like Lyndon Johnson in 1968

**pavyracer** · 07-05-20, 09:00 PM

When it gets cold in October and covid comes back the market will crash.

**jjgold** · 07-05-20, 09:15 PM

Going to crash before that

**homie1975** · 07-05-20, 09:19 PM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

Your October surprise could very likely be a 25% crash in the market as 3rd QTR numbers roll out and earnings are horseshit.

Trump is finished, he needs to follow lead of Ventura ala Minnesota '02 and step aside for a Moderate GOP like Pence or Mitt to run.

I feel both Pence or Romney would win a big election vs Biden

Minny you keep saying this re earnings but all co's and analysts on wall street are revising so the goalposts are moved way up. Watch what happens here in Q2 earnings the next 6 weeks. It will be a precursor on what to expect in Oct.

**homie1975** · 07-05-20, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

When it gets cold in October and covid comes back the market will crash.

Don't be surprised if we have more remdesevir type meds to fight it and good news comes out on the vaccine chase

**trobin31** · 07-05-20, 09:51 PM

They will just inject more bleach...I mean...uh...more stimulus to keep market afloat.

**stake1** · 07-05-20, 10:36 PM

Markets rebounding. Jobs reports on the rise. Trump doing a good job. Biden would be asleep thru this entire pandemic

**KVB** · 07-05-20, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Markets so strong and nobody understand why...

This couldn't be further from the truth. Who doesn't understand why?

It's pretty obvious, Gold.

Don't fight the Fed, and in this case congress.

**pavyracer** · 07-05-20, 10:48 PM

The bubble is going to burst soon. Trump is getting more deperate.

**Brock Landers** · 07-05-20, 10:59 PM

Go to any city, look at restaurants, mostly empty.

This economy is in horrendous shape

**MinnesotaFats** · 07-05-20, 11:00 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

Minny you keep saying this re earnings but all co's and analysts on wall street are revising so the goalposts are moved way up. Watch what happens here in Q2 earnings the next 6 weeks. It will be a precursor on what to expect in Oct.

Well in my defense everytime there's a squeeze on corporate credit or market liquidity the FED jumps in to stop the, otherwise inevitable, downturn....

I'd really hate to be a short player these days, everytime it's like you start walking to the window the other team hits a half court 3 at the buzzer to bust the spread.

**JIBBBY** · 07-05-20, 11:02 PM

Trump voters that didn't poll in 2016 will again decide this election in 2020 especially if Biden pulls a Hillary and doesn't travel and hold rallies in the swing States again..

Economy on the rebound now.. TRUMP GOT THIS AGAIN!!!

**homie1975** · 07-06-20, 05:32 PM

Stock market helping trump chances

**dog** · 07-07-20, 12:17 AM

Restaurants may not have hardly any diners, but people are getting their food to go, driving up, or getting it delivered. And grocery stores aren't lacking for business. The economy is surprisingly strong right now. Trump may win in a landslide if Biden is exposed in the debates.

**navyblue81** · 07-07-20, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Good info

who was the pres who didn’t get re elect ?

I believe Carter because his loss had more to do with what was happening in Iran. But that’s just my guess. Definitely wasn’t Hoover. Bush lost because of the economy. And Ford wasn’t a true incumbent.

**Tanko** · 07-07-20, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

Since 1928, the incumbent has won the election 87% of the time when the SPX was up in the 3 mos leading up to election day.

If the SPX is up then people don't need to directly own stocks in a portfolio to enjoy the gains as their 401Ks, IRA's and 529 plans will go up.

Americans vote with their pocketbook.

Expect Trump.

Great info Homie. It made me look into it more so I can look at making more informed bets on the election.

First article I found related to this was here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...of2&yptr=yahoo

Summary:

Basically, it uses Dow Index data (not S&P) to dispute the possible correlation between market trends and election results.
The main point is that if you look at market trend at 10 mo, 8 mo, 6 mo, etc... to 1 mo. out from election there isn't a good correlation that is explainable, except at 9 mo and 3 mo out.
For example when you consider the historical market trends from 6 mo. and 1 mo. out from the election, the data shows no corrleations. So why does 3 mo. out work? If this can't be explained, it kind of makes the data questionable and kind of like cherry picking the data to find a trend.

The article continues to describe how betting markets are better predictors and provide a couple of sites (non sportsbooks that you can buy futures options) with data showing potential outcomes. I tend to agree that similar to SPORTS betting, "betting markets" like these and 5 Dimes, etc... are more likely to be a better predictor.

Thanks again,

**johnnyvegas13** · 07-07-20, 10:26 AM

Another good comparison is Truman who was not supposed to b re elected either

what was the odds on that election

**homie1975** · 07-07-20, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

Well in my defense everytime there's a squeeze on corporate credit or market liquidity the FED jumps in to stop the, otherwise inevitable, downturn....

I'd really hate to be a short player these days, everytime it's like you start walking to the window the other team hits a half court 3 at the buzzer to bust the spread.

we must play the same game the Market Makers and the Backstoppers (FED) are playing, so i built this into my decision in early to mid April to build long positions. if we know what they are going to do and why, then we must follow them, so many of us did (and many did not).