My card for week 1 NCAAF is swelling to preposterous proportions. Somebody stop me before this monster envelopes every game on the board. I'm firing away at plays like Doc Holliday at the O.K. Corral. Here's what I've got pending so far, and keep in mind I placed many of these bets at various times in the days following their initial posting so some of the lines have already moved.
Nebraska -7 @ Illinois
This is actually a week 0 game to kickoff an important year for Scott Frost and the Huskers. Coach likes what he has in the offensive line and if they play to expectations then Illinois should have trouble stopping the run. Despite the transfer of RB/WR WanDale Robinson the Huskers actually upgraded their WR room which should help Martinez who's been up and down for much of his career. Must win for Nebraska because the schedule gets rough after the non-cons.
Ohio State -13 @ Minnesota
This could be a trappy spot for the Buckeyes because the Gophers were rarely if ever at full strength last year and OSU will be starting a new quarterback in a Thursday night road opener. Still, OSU will be strong in the trenches, elite at WR, and have a home run hitter at RB with freshman TreyVeyon Henderson who should see snaps behind the starter Teague. Stroud looks like another plug and play at quarterback so beating the spread will come down to Buckeyes defense making enough plays.
Indiana +5 @ Iowa
If Penix is fully healthy then I think the Hoosiers should be closer to a pick'em. They were the surprise team in the B1G last year and return 17 starters. This game could be controlled by the defenses early on, but I'll take Penix over Petras when the chips are down, not to mention insurance points.
West Virginia @ Maryland +3.5
Terps return Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback and all his top receiving options. At home on opening day I think this is a great spot for Maryland, who flashed at times last year, and will be facing a Mountaineer defense that lost a lot of key production to the draft and the transfer portal.
Oklahoma -22.5 @ Tulane
The Sooners are gonna be stacked this year and should contend for a national championship. Conversely, Tulane was all over the place in 2020, and while not outright terrible, didn't demonstrate anything that would lead me to believe they can stay on the field for very long with Oklahoma. Not to mention Tulane's two best players on defense were their bookend linemen who've both moved on. This spread has already already spiked significantly.
Michigan State +6 @ Northwestern
Spartans won this game last year as the decidedly inferior team and now I think Northwestern takes a step backward while MSU could see a tick upward; they certainly can't get much worse. While the Cats still appear to be the better team on paper, there's enough unknowns that render six points a gift in what profiles as another slobberknocker.
Western Michigan +18 @ Michigan
The Broncos return 8 starters on each side of the ball, including the quarterback and 4/5 of the offensive line for an offense that was ninth in scoring last year. Granted that was against lousy MAC competition but wtf have the Wolverines done to warrant an 18 point spread? They needed overtime last year to knockoff Rutgers for fukk sake. This is probably inflated due to reputation more than merit, but gimme the intrastate dog here with the chip on their shoulder.
Northern Illinois @ Georgia Tech -16.5
I might be out of my mind to be laying this many points with the Ramblin' Wreck but I think they may have some sneaky upside this year. The two freshmen QB Sims and RB Gibbs were pretty good last year all things considered, and now they get a full off-season to sharpen up. Tech was bad on defense but I like some of the pieces they added through transfer to try and shore that up. NIU struggles against the run so if GT can get going downhill early, covering the number won't look so daunting.
Louisiana @ Texas -9.5
This line opened around -14 but when it dipped below double digits I had to buy me some Bevo. The Sark era in Austin begins and I don't think they stumble out of the gate. The Ragin' Cajuns won't have the luxury of being under the radar anymore so I don't think they catch UT off guard. Louisiana played a bit over their heads last year and the Iowa State game was the biggest feather in their cap but that final score was misleading. Texas' new quarterback looked electric in the bowl game and the RB Robinson is a stud. Cajuns are a solid team but I expect Horns to pull away at some point in the game.
San Jose State +17 @ USC
I paid -125 for a full point purchase on this game. USC is overvalued every single year it seems like and this may be the case yet again. SJSU returns 20 starters from their squad that went 7-1 last year, including three wins over bowl teams. The Spartans have some gamers on the defensive side of the ball and return Nick Starkel at quarterback, who's been around the block but has SEC experience to his credit. We get the little brother catching a good chunk of points again in another intrastate tilt and the Spartans will already have a game under their belt (they play an FCS school in week 0) when they meet USC so there's that.
Penn State +4.5 @ Wisconsin
Both these teams underachieved last year. PSU did end the season on a four game winning streak albeit against the bottom feeders of the conference. There's probably not a huge edge in this game but I have a little more faith in the Nittany Lions until Wisky proves they can revert to their former dominance in the run game, because without it they just don't have an identity on offense. Give me the points in a game that could be a squeaker either way.
Georgia vs. Clemson -3 (Charlotte)
Plucked the best number when it was available.. There's a lot of hype on the Dawgs this year, but I think Clemson's defense will come out swinging in this one. The last time they were on the field Justin Fields was carving them up to the tune of 49 points... Now Brent Venables has had an entire off-season to sit around and stew over the embarrassment, no chance they come out ill-prepared for JT Daniels. The Tiger defense is loaded with potential and now they have a little more experience to go with it.
Marshall -2.5 @ Navy
This one's pretty simple... Navy was bad last year and Marshall wasn't. This line looks like bait on the hook but I'll bite anyways. The Thundering Herd return 17 starters overall and might be the best team in C-USA. Their quarterback was a freshman last year and performed admirably. He gets most of his offensive line and receiving weapons back. On the flipside, Marshall was 4th in rushing defense so they can match up well against the one thing Navy traditionally does with any efficacy.
Alabama vs. Miami +18.5 (Atlanta)
It's no secret Bama reloads like Rambo, but damn, if D'Eriq King plays in this game there should be plenty of opportunity for at least a backdoor cover if they can't cover straight up. Speaking of Rambo, the Canes did land former Oklahoma WR Charleston Rambo via the transfer portal and return last year's leading receiver Mike Harley to boot. Miami's defense isn't lights out, but they are middle of the pack so there's a chance they could get off the field a few times against Bama, who will be working in some new faces on offense. That being said, there's enough margin for error to get a cover here.
Baylor -13.5 @ Texas State
Charlie Brewer transferred out of Baylor so I'm not exactly sure what the hell I'm thinking laying two touchdowns but I'll try to explain. Both these teams won just two games last year but one plays in the Big XII and the other the Sun Belt. Coach Aranda has to be looking at that schedule salivating because there's no reason why he shouldn't have Baylor 3-0 (@Texas State, Texas Southern, @Kansas) heading into week four against Iowa State. I think Baylor has enough on defense to hold Texas State at bay while the Bear offense figures things out. And they very well should figure things out, because as bad as they were on that side of the ball last year the Bobcats were worse on defense (125th in total D).
UTEP -7.5 @ New Mexico State
I don't even remember what my handicap was for this game, but it's there in my pending bets, so fukk it, go Miners!! When you're laying points with El Paso on the road in week one, you know your card is getting bloated.
But in all seriousness NMSU was horrible last year, and they only return two starters (pretty remarkable since last year didn't affect eligibility) so if there's any chance they improve in 2021 it certainly won't be because of experience.
That's all for now!
Nebraska -7 @ Illinois
This is actually a week 0 game to kickoff an important year for Scott Frost and the Huskers. Coach likes what he has in the offensive line and if they play to expectations then Illinois should have trouble stopping the run. Despite the transfer of RB/WR WanDale Robinson the Huskers actually upgraded their WR room which should help Martinez who's been up and down for much of his career. Must win for Nebraska because the schedule gets rough after the non-cons.
Ohio State -13 @ Minnesota
This could be a trappy spot for the Buckeyes because the Gophers were rarely if ever at full strength last year and OSU will be starting a new quarterback in a Thursday night road opener. Still, OSU will be strong in the trenches, elite at WR, and have a home run hitter at RB with freshman TreyVeyon Henderson who should see snaps behind the starter Teague. Stroud looks like another plug and play at quarterback so beating the spread will come down to Buckeyes defense making enough plays.
Indiana +5 @ Iowa
If Penix is fully healthy then I think the Hoosiers should be closer to a pick'em. They were the surprise team in the B1G last year and return 17 starters. This game could be controlled by the defenses early on, but I'll take Penix over Petras when the chips are down, not to mention insurance points.
West Virginia @ Maryland +3.5
Terps return Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback and all his top receiving options. At home on opening day I think this is a great spot for Maryland, who flashed at times last year, and will be facing a Mountaineer defense that lost a lot of key production to the draft and the transfer portal.
Oklahoma -22.5 @ Tulane
The Sooners are gonna be stacked this year and should contend for a national championship. Conversely, Tulane was all over the place in 2020, and while not outright terrible, didn't demonstrate anything that would lead me to believe they can stay on the field for very long with Oklahoma. Not to mention Tulane's two best players on defense were their bookend linemen who've both moved on. This spread has already already spiked significantly.
Michigan State +6 @ Northwestern
Spartans won this game last year as the decidedly inferior team and now I think Northwestern takes a step backward while MSU could see a tick upward; they certainly can't get much worse. While the Cats still appear to be the better team on paper, there's enough unknowns that render six points a gift in what profiles as another slobberknocker.
Western Michigan +18 @ Michigan
The Broncos return 8 starters on each side of the ball, including the quarterback and 4/5 of the offensive line for an offense that was ninth in scoring last year. Granted that was against lousy MAC competition but wtf have the Wolverines done to warrant an 18 point spread? They needed overtime last year to knockoff Rutgers for fukk sake. This is probably inflated due to reputation more than merit, but gimme the intrastate dog here with the chip on their shoulder.
Northern Illinois @ Georgia Tech -16.5
I might be out of my mind to be laying this many points with the Ramblin' Wreck but I think they may have some sneaky upside this year. The two freshmen QB Sims and RB Gibbs were pretty good last year all things considered, and now they get a full off-season to sharpen up. Tech was bad on defense but I like some of the pieces they added through transfer to try and shore that up. NIU struggles against the run so if GT can get going downhill early, covering the number won't look so daunting.
Louisiana @ Texas -9.5
This line opened around -14 but when it dipped below double digits I had to buy me some Bevo. The Sark era in Austin begins and I don't think they stumble out of the gate. The Ragin' Cajuns won't have the luxury of being under the radar anymore so I don't think they catch UT off guard. Louisiana played a bit over their heads last year and the Iowa State game was the biggest feather in their cap but that final score was misleading. Texas' new quarterback looked electric in the bowl game and the RB Robinson is a stud. Cajuns are a solid team but I expect Horns to pull away at some point in the game.
San Jose State +17 @ USC
I paid -125 for a full point purchase on this game. USC is overvalued every single year it seems like and this may be the case yet again. SJSU returns 20 starters from their squad that went 7-1 last year, including three wins over bowl teams. The Spartans have some gamers on the defensive side of the ball and return Nick Starkel at quarterback, who's been around the block but has SEC experience to his credit. We get the little brother catching a good chunk of points again in another intrastate tilt and the Spartans will already have a game under their belt (they play an FCS school in week 0) when they meet USC so there's that.
Penn State +4.5 @ Wisconsin
Both these teams underachieved last year. PSU did end the season on a four game winning streak albeit against the bottom feeders of the conference. There's probably not a huge edge in this game but I have a little more faith in the Nittany Lions until Wisky proves they can revert to their former dominance in the run game, because without it they just don't have an identity on offense. Give me the points in a game that could be a squeaker either way.
Georgia vs. Clemson -3 (Charlotte)
Plucked the best number when it was available.. There's a lot of hype on the Dawgs this year, but I think Clemson's defense will come out swinging in this one. The last time they were on the field Justin Fields was carving them up to the tune of 49 points... Now Brent Venables has had an entire off-season to sit around and stew over the embarrassment, no chance they come out ill-prepared for JT Daniels. The Tiger defense is loaded with potential and now they have a little more experience to go with it.
Marshall -2.5 @ Navy
This one's pretty simple... Navy was bad last year and Marshall wasn't. This line looks like bait on the hook but I'll bite anyways. The Thundering Herd return 17 starters overall and might be the best team in C-USA. Their quarterback was a freshman last year and performed admirably. He gets most of his offensive line and receiving weapons back. On the flipside, Marshall was 4th in rushing defense so they can match up well against the one thing Navy traditionally does with any efficacy.
Alabama vs. Miami +18.5 (Atlanta)
It's no secret Bama reloads like Rambo, but damn, if D'Eriq King plays in this game there should be plenty of opportunity for at least a backdoor cover if they can't cover straight up. Speaking of Rambo, the Canes did land former Oklahoma WR Charleston Rambo via the transfer portal and return last year's leading receiver Mike Harley to boot. Miami's defense isn't lights out, but they are middle of the pack so there's a chance they could get off the field a few times against Bama, who will be working in some new faces on offense. That being said, there's enough margin for error to get a cover here.
Baylor -13.5 @ Texas State
Charlie Brewer transferred out of Baylor so I'm not exactly sure what the hell I'm thinking laying two touchdowns but I'll try to explain. Both these teams won just two games last year but one plays in the Big XII and the other the Sun Belt. Coach Aranda has to be looking at that schedule salivating because there's no reason why he shouldn't have Baylor 3-0 (@Texas State, Texas Southern, @Kansas) heading into week four against Iowa State. I think Baylor has enough on defense to hold Texas State at bay while the Bear offense figures things out. And they very well should figure things out, because as bad as they were on that side of the ball last year the Bobcats were worse on defense (125th in total D).
UTEP -7.5 @ New Mexico State
I don't even remember what my handicap was for this game, but it's there in my pending bets, so fukk it, go Miners!! When you're laying points with El Paso on the road in week one, you know your card is getting bloated.
But in all seriousness NMSU was horrible last year, and they only return two starters (pretty remarkable since last year didn't affect eligibility) so if there's any chance they improve in 2021 it certainly won't be because of experience.
That's all for now!
