USFL Week 1 Lines

**Headsterx** · 05-15-22, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Technically, over the last 7 games, there has been just 1 UNDER against the close, and a push, but it does depend on the line you had.

With that I have 9-9-1 for Totals against the close (11-8-0 vs the open) up to this afternoon's game. The average margin of final scores from the the market is now just .5 points.

Excellent info!

**KVB** · 05-15-22, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...Either way I think the ass of the league, who covered last week's closer, could be the bet this week...

Originally posted by KVB

The moneyflow two pick I was thinking of here was Pitt/UNDER, and the UNDER part of the two pick is getting quite loaded. I mentioned early on how the Total will fukk the two pick, perhaps we see all OVERs this week...

Just knew this week was set for Pitt, and when it became so real, I got worried.

Remember that things come in pairs. Remember the force of favorite/dog, like today's games, and look at the deeper picture.

There's more than just the obvious give and take. Big money streaks at stake today. Birmingham winning and covering ATS and Pitt losing outright every game. One money streak succeeded, the other failed.

Forecasts add another element but that is the essence of a deeper give and take in the markets.

And for that, for that Pitt that I was able to see from the beginning of the week, for the give and take that was available, we get 4 straight OVERs.

I think I said in week 2, it's the Totals that fukk you.

So I suppose we shouldn't be surprised.

**Headsterx** · 05-15-22, 06:28 PM

I can’t believe they won on the last play.

**KVB** · 05-15-22, 06:29 PM

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

**mcaulay777** · 05-16-22, 10:28 PM

Im only in las vegas for one day Tuesday,hopefully this weekends lines will be up.So i can make some plays.

**Headsterx** · 05-21-22, 01:58 AM

Midway point has been reached and now we’re going into the 2nd half. I think the name of the game for tomorrow morning game is the over. Stars like to throw and Bandits are a good scoring team.

Bandits v. Stars o39

**Tanko** · 05-21-22, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Midway point has been reached and now we’re going into the 2nd half. I think the name of the game for tomorrow morning game is the over. Stars like to throw and Bandits are a good scoring team.

Bandits v. Stars o39

I agree. I like the over in the 2nd game even better. Birm/Mich O38

**Headsterx** · 05-21-22, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by Tanko

I agree. I like the over in the 2nd game even better. Birm/Mich O38

Oh hell yeah, I'm on it for the second game, too!

**KVB** · 05-21-22, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...Notice Michigan, the darker blue line, a team with a 1-2 record and has given up only 27 points in 3 games. They average -17.8 againts the closing Total, that likely won't last.

It will be tough for the defenses to stay stout in such a round robin league and everyone will regress towards the standard deviation in the chart above.

**KVB** · 05-21-22, 12:11 PM

Liked the UNDER here and probably should have taken a market shot.

In other sports we would be comparing forecasts and looking to potentially tease this UNDER.

It would at least be a decent candidate.

**Headsterx** · 05-21-22, 01:11 PM

Bandits finally scored. The over looks dead so far. Ugh!

**KVB** · 05-21-22, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Bandits finally scored. The over looks dead so far. Ugh!

It's a game of halves though.

UNDER is not a sure thing here by any stretch. This is the first game of a pair of games and the first game of a pair of days with a pair of games.

This game has pretty good probability of being a little "misleading" early on.

All that said, check out that video above. I should have made it earlier in the week. That's my bad.

There were definitely head winds and I am kicking myself from not taking a market shot on the UNDER, even though I can see an OVER possibly coming in late.

**KVB** · 05-21-22, 01:21 PM

lol

Special teams turnover and now there are 21 points.

Halfway there at half time.

**Headsterx** · 05-21-22, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by KVB

lol

Special teams turnover and now there are 21 points.

Halfway there at half time.

I turned the channel after the called timeout on 4th down thinking nothing will happen.

**KVB** · 05-21-22, 01:25 PM

I wish we could tease USFL.

I think we could have something exploitable, even with what little data we have.

I guess that's why they won't let us tease.

**KVB** · 05-21-22, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

I turned the channel after the called timeout on 4th down thinking nothing will happen.

14 points in the last couple minutes of the half.

A little explosion of points here.

**KVB** · 05-21-22, 02:03 PM

Looks like this first game is headed towards the OVER.

Even so, here are the charts from the video...

**Headsterx** · 05-21-22, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by KVB

14 points in the last couple minutes of the half.

A little explosion of points here.

And then watch, nothing in the 4th...

**Headsterx** · 05-21-22, 02:25 PM

Actually, it doesn't matter if they don't score anything in the 4th!

Bring on the next game!! OVER 38!!!

**Headsterx** · 05-21-22, 09:02 PM

Looking good at halftime with Stallions leading 13-10.

**Tanko** · 05-21-22, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Looking good at halftime with Stallions leading 13-10.

OVER....

**KVB** · 05-21-22, 10:14 PM

Nice work in here Headster.

**Headsterx** · 05-21-22, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Nice work in here Headster.

Great info from Tanko and you. We cashed with both games. Tomorrow looks a little difficult with unpredictable bad teams playing.

**Headsterx** · 05-22-22, 08:43 AM

I'll probably be skipping the first game as it starts 9am and I'm already going to be running through 10 EPL games @ 8am. However, here some info on the infamous Maulers v. Breakers (courtesy of Betus):

Maulers vs Breakers Prediction

Both teams could be down a pass catcher. Pittsburgh’s Jeffrey Thomas is dealing with a hamstring issue while New Orleans tight end EJ Bibbs has an undisclosed injury.The Breakers are second in the USFL in third-down conversions, picking up first downs 43.2% of the time. Pittsburgh has gone for it on fourth down 12 times, three more than any other team in the league.Pittsburgh’s E.J. Elija is fourth in the USFL with 42 tackles and third with 25 solo stops. New Orleans has the Nos. 2 and 3 tacklers. Jerod Fernandez had 50 tackles and Vontae Diggs 43.New Orleans (+550) was tied for the second-best championship odds coming into the season while Pittsburgh came in at +800.New Orleans should be able to get back to its winning ways against perhaps the worst team in the league although Pittsburgh could cover as eight-point underdogs.Pick: Under 36

Pick: Maulers +8 (-110)

**KVB** · 05-22-22, 02:12 PM

Anyone taking that UNDER in the final game?

I have not made a two pick moneyflow parlay yet this week but I am thinking of a market shot on the UNDER 40 here.

**Tanko** · 05-22-22, 02:14 PM

I was leaning under. All the stats seem to point that way.

I was waiting for the 1st game to go over so that the total on second game might bump up to maybe 40.5 or 41.

**Tanko** · 05-22-22, 02:16 PM

I'm seeing pressure for line move to 40.5 or 41. Now the books will play their games and likely keep it from happening but, we'll see.

**Tanko** · 05-22-22, 02:33 PM

For a couple of minutes 40.5 popped up on a few books and quickly disappeared.

**KVB** · 05-22-22, 03:00 PM

Trying to find thatt half pont.

Pinny dealing a great offer at one point.

BM alternate line of U40.5 -112 maybe about right.

I'm making a buy.

**KVB** · 05-22-22, 03:04 PM

The paper bet moneyflow two pick is:

Hou +7
UNDER 40

Probably come back to it, but that's it. I have too many reasons in the column against Hou but I am taking that market shot, with the UNDER...

22-May

HOU/NJ UNDER 40 (-104)

This is a BM line. Push rates are kind of a tough thing here, but at least we know what the books are using.

I can see this game going favorite and UNDER here. OR dog and OVER, in other words a lot of risk in teh moneyflow two pick being 0-2 or 2-0.

It's shit so I went UNDER.

**KVB** · 05-22-22, 03:27 PM

The question is, just how often am I going to have to bring up an earlier quote of mine where I say that the Total always fukks us.

There is maths here, because we are dealing with parlay odds.

I know some professional bettors, or at least part time, that will tell you how bad any two pick parlay.

Since the individual legs are 50-50 they think the probability is .5x.5 = .25. They think you should be getting +300 on those payouts to break even. But they are ok with -110 and -105, where your payout is shorted.

From the bookmaker's perspective the hold isn't what many players think. They forget that a paraly is one bet, at your risk, parlayed into another bet, your risk plus your gains from the first bet.

Think about it.

**KVB** · 05-22-22, 03:28 PM

I typed that post then flipped on the game.

7-7 1st hald of 1st quarter with the favorite driving.

Fuk.

**KVB** · 05-22-22, 03:54 PM

A little more about those parlay odds and how it works from the perspective of the book, and why it pays what it does...

Originally posted by KVB

Like Mike says, there are 4 different outcomes with a two pick parley. (W-W, W-L, L-W, L-L) The bookie takes in $400 and pays out $360. The $40 dollars he keeps is indeed 10% of the $400 he originally took in.

But wait…

Let’s take a closer look at the parlay. The parlay isn’t a single bet; rather it is multiple bets (in this case two) parlayed together. That’s why it’s called a parlay.

When you place a $100 two pick, you are betting $100 on the outcome of one game, and then risking your winnings plus your original $100 on the outcome of the next game.

In reality, the four bettors in our calculation above, (the original $400 bet) did not bet merely $400. Two of those bettors were going to lose their first game…one would win his second game, the other lose his both games. But the other two of those bettors won the first bet, then let it ride (winnings plus original bet) on game 2. And one of those lucky bettors wins both games.

At -110 for each bet, the bookmaker took in $400 on game one and an additional $382 on game 2. The $40 the bookmaker keeps from $782 bet is equal to roughly 5.12% juice.

The juice on a two pick parley paying +260 is 5.12%. That’s slightly more than the average 4.55% on the 50-50 proposition.

In the same way, you can calculate a 3 pick paying 6-1 to be charging 4.35% vigorish…a slight bargain over 4.55%.

If I make and win a $100 bet at -110, odds, I will get back $191. If I then bet $191 at -110 on a second game, the return will be pennies shy of $365. And that’s why so many books these days will tolerate +265 odds on the two pick payout...

**KVB** · 05-22-22, 05:00 PM

lol

Hou blocked the FG, picked it up, ran a bunch of yards, then fumbled so NJ fell on it and "retains" possession for first down near the 50.

Houston's offense hasn't had the ball yet and the 3rd quarter clock ticks.

2nd half UNDER 20 looking like a good play right now.

**Headsterx** · 05-22-22, 07:11 PM

Phew! I'm glad I didn't wager on the last game as I would've taken under and Generals. I can't get hold of Gamblers and Maulers as teams so probably won't bet on any of their games for the rest of the season. Luckily, both of them are the bottom of their division so they won't make the playoffs.