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Ok here we go. I always get big ambitions to post about a smaller sport then get busy and distracted and never quite post what I had hoped to.
We have 8 teams here, 12 weeks.
Is it bettable? Do we know all the rules? Do we know the players and coaches? Do have any stats to form an opinion?
Not really.
There is one thing we can do.
Follow the money and watch it get taken down.
Hopefully we can be there to catch it. I'll do my best.
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Under was a huge advantage in AAF and XFLv2. No reason to think this is going to be any different until proven otherwise.Comment -
The public's driving need for favorites and OVERs will always, as long as any sport is played and bet on, be a fundamental source of advantage, for those looking for one.Comment -
PassComment -
I know all the games are played in the same city, but are all the games in the same stadium?Comment -
Flip a fuckin coin
No one on earth knows what will happen in this scrub festComment -
Well one thing we will have to do is agree on odds, sort of. The market will take care of that game by game.
Let's get this little sample down now, before things get going...
futures bet105 DK betmgmpa BOL Michigan Panthers 400 400 400 375 Tampa Bay Bandits 500 500 450 500 New Orleans Breakers 550 500 500 600 Philadelphia Stars 600 600 600 600 Pittsburgh Maulers 600 600 650 600 New Jersey Generals 700 700 700 700 Birmingham Stallions 700 750 750 800 Houston Gamblers 700 750 800 750
So what can we get from this?
In my opinion, the most valuable thing we can pull from this that can help us during the season is that the seem to be pretty clear tiers of teams.
We'll come back to this, this concept of tiers based on futures.
Now let's add the divisions to it...
I'm trying to establish a little bit of early season expectation and structure to the league using the structure the league gives us. This is important in any sport, but easier with so few teams.bet105 DK betmgmpa BOL NORTH DIVISION Michigan Panthers 400 400 400 375 New Jersey Generals 700 700 700 700 Philadelphia Stars 600 600 600 600 Pittsburgh Maulers 600 600 650 600 SOUTH DIVISION New Orleans Breakers 550 500 500 600 Tampa Bay Bandits 500 500 450 500 Birmingham Stallions 700 750 750 800 Houston Gamblers 700 750 800 750
A total of like 40 games will be played so we will see things move, we should anyway. Each tier has a charcteristic, like potential to move to another tier.
But most importantly, the betting population will bow to these tiers, when the individual market is set for it.
Can you see, with just the info we have, why Orbison's prtinted lines above are like they are? Why the 3.5's and 2.5's are where they are? There's not a big difference between some of these tiers...yet.
From here we'll get into how money moves, once it starts moving. Size of league, volume, extra vig, type of bettor, I don't want us to worry about those things yet. They are all factors, but what we're doing can apply to all leagues. This isn't meant to be overthinking, I'm trying to show something, by real time example.
I would much rather do this by video.Comment -
One of the most important things about the movement of money in this league is the schedule.
Much like CFL, we get three days each week.
An opener on Friday, two games on Saturday, and then a Sunday game.
What's important here is that the Saturday games will consecutive, not simultaneous.
This gives 4 slots each week through which money will move and because of week to week carryover actually get another slot. From there we have spreads, moneylines, and Totals.
All of which have there own paths of flowing money. Within those paths, we have to always consider the spread/Total two pick parlay. It's part of the structure.
This is a teach by example learning process and the value of what I'm saying will become evident as the season progresses.
Anyone who followed my CLF shit knows that it took awhile for regular to repeat themselves. They also know that we followed money through groups of bettors and capitalized on that money settling on a regular basis.
One final though here is that while you can attack each week, it takes about two weeks to really uncover a good bet. Statistically, we need 4 weeks to build a backbone.
But we're not worrying about stats right now.Comment -
I realize a lot of what I just posted can seem like a useless blur, but in the spirit that video a made a while back I want offer some expectations.
When it's all said and done, and I've shown what I intend, readers should be able to identify where teams stand in relation to the market. We should be able to tell if the market is overestimating a team and underestimating a team, and by how much.
We will also develop rankings and ways to pencil in predictions. We will see the value of tracking our bets and why we made them, across a spectrum of metrics...even if we are only making "paper bets" in some instances.
All of these concepts are applicable to your favorite sport. We're just going to use the USFL as the example.
Now for some fun stuff that shows us the league make up. There is a twitter account called USFL Stats and from there I took these charts...
The real game experience of the USFL draft picks...
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Probably won't look into this until about a quarter of the way into the season when we see how the league works and what each team has to offer. Looking forward to taking a road trip one weekend to Birmingham to check a couple of games out. Tickets are $10 or $25 each. Very affordable.Comment -
Here are interesting rule changes in USFL. Most likely won’t see the top 3 changes until end of the game, 3 options score after TD, 2 options for “kickoffs”, and OT rules.
The biggest rule changes pertain to extra-point conversions after touchdowns, onside kicks, overtime and passing plays, but they’re not the only modifications. Here’s what you need to know about the USFL’s rules.
Extra points
When teams score a touchdown in the USFL, they’ll have the option to attempt a one-, two- or even three-point conversion. Teams will receive:
– One point for a kick made with the ball snapped from the 15-yard line
– Two points for a scrimmage play from the two-yard line that successfully crosses the goal line
– Three points for a scrimmage play from the 10-yard line that successfully crosses the goal line
As a result, a team trailing by nine points can still tie the game with a touchdown (and a three-point conversion), while an 18-point lead is still a two-possession game.
In the USFL, the offense can go for a normal point after touchdown, a 2-point conversion or even a 3-point play.
USFL Rules: Onside kick … or 4th & 12
As an alternative to onside kicks, a team can elect to take 4th and 12 from the 33-yard line. With a first down, the team keeps the ball. With no conversion, the defense gains possession.
Overtime: best of 3 shootout
Overtime will be a shootout in which each team’s offense will alternate plays against the opposing defense from the two-yard line. Each team will run a total of three plays, and each successful scoring attempt will receive two points. The team with the most points after each team has run its three plays wins.
If the score is tied after each team runs three plays, the subsequent attempts become sudden death until a winner is declared.
Throw two forward passes behind the line of scrimmage
In the USFL, the offense can throw two forward passes behind the line of scrimmage. This opens up a whole new world of opportunities for the offense.
Other rules changes
Instant replay: Each coach will be allowed one replay challenge. Replay Command at FOX Sports Control Center in Los Angeles will make all replay decisions, meaning that one replay crew will make all the decisions. This will ensure accurate, consistent, and faster rulings.
USFL Replay Command will have the authority to overrule incorrect personal foul calls, including roughing the passer, hits on defenseless players, face-mask penalties, horse-collars, and more. USFL Replay Command will also be responsible for determining whether the act of pass interference is obviously intentional when it occurs 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (see below).
Defensive pass interference: The penalty for defensive pass interference will mirror the NCAA rule, with exceptions. Defensive pass interference will be a spot foul if it occurs less than 15 yards from the line of scrimmage, but it is a 15-yard penalty if the spot of the foul is beyond 15 yards. The goal is to decrease the punitive nature of defensive pass interference penalties.
However, a defender intentionally tackling a receiver beyond 15 yards past the line of scrimmage would be a spot foul.
Offensive pass interference: If a pass does not cross the line of scrimmage, there can be no penalty for either offensive pass interference or ineligible player downfield. This rule change opens up the offense without undermining defense and forgoes punishment for infractions unrelated to the play
Kickoffs: All kickoffs will be from the 25-yard line. No kicking team member may line up any further back than one yard, while the receiving team must have a minimum of eight players in the set-up zone between their 35- and 45-yard lines. After a kickoff travels 20 yards, the first touch must be by the receiving team. If an untouched kick becomes dead, the ball belongs to the receiving team at that spot.Comment -
If this survives will they play in their actual city next year? I didn’t even know “Pittsburgh” had a team lmaoComment -
Can't waitComment -
Good stuff Headster, while many of these rules won’t matter as far as following the money, you can bet your ass how some of these rules play out will definitely move money from one hand to the next.
We can see lines now at many shops, but who opened the lines?
Sadly, I think we might have to rely on US based book for openers. I mentioned earlier we’ll have to agree on lines, anyone have a good suggestion for the opener sources?Comment -
USFL Opening Kickoff
Spring football is here, and the USFL kicks off their season tonight at 7:30 pm ET on Fox and NBC.
Bettors so far are liking the two teams with proven NFL level head coaches. Current futures have the Michigan Panthers coached by Jeff Fisher as the favorite with +375 odds. The Todd Haley led Tampa Bay Bandits are another popular pick at +500 odds.
Will coaching make the difference in this year’s USFL season? View all of our odds and props on the USFL here.
Birmingham -3Comment -
As soon as lines came out went right to the Unders on every game. Last weather report i got last night was that it was supposed to rain all weekend by the Sunday night game if the weather is crappy that Pitt,Tampa game could have 300 people.Tampa was the only side i took this week.All games in one spot maybe just for one year next year they go up against Xfl at least late in year.I think Xfl starts right after Super Bowl.Comment -
No Indiana-based books have USFL lines up...
Am I missing something?Comment -
Straight garbage
Like turds in a toilet bowlComment -
PassComment -
No props builder!
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Pretty sure we'll be seeign the action over 3 days with the exception of this week where we have 1 game today and 3 tomorrow.
Totals all dropped, we'll see if the linemakers learn next week, may be more than weather involved there.
Don't like the volume, but many books have the lines now.
Shout out to BMR for getting the lines up, didn't see that with SBR.
Shoutout to Orbison, I think he requested it.
Notice the final game, the settlement game this week.
TB moved to -5.5.
We could be dealing some serious market participants here, splashing out pile.
We'll see.Last edited by KVB; 04-16-22, 04:49 PM.Comment -
We won't be the only ones trying to do this. The market knows this, as these principles apply to any sport and any market.
There's a reason we see a lot of underdogs when these things start out. It's when we get some favorites covering and then, depending on the matchups and their orders, that we can pounce.
Those who know, know.
First, let's get some results.Comment -
Latest weather from weather.com rain ending by 7 then just cloudy for tonight,Sunday though not so good,Rain all day and the worse weather coming during the late game.Comment -
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This Perez QB for Generals is gonna get killed.
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This isn’t sent that great
like a below average college gmComment -
I can do without all of the drone camera views.Comment
