Seems dumb all the games are in alabama of course no one showed up
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It will fail real quickComment -
One things for sure, Fox is committing up to 200 million over 3 years, but there also expecting 250 million in further investment.
If numbers don't pan out, it will be hard to get the further investment.
So I guess there's no guarantee we get 3 years worth.
Maybe Vince McMahon can save the day...lol.
I have some week 2 analysis, should we keep it here in one thread or is someone going to make a another thread? If it's here, maybe mods can take week 1 out of the title, with Orbison's approval of course.
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I feel good about the fact that this thread seems to have the real jj on fire.Comment -
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Ok, I have capped this market to the best I can with the info we have. This is going to eventually have a real CFL thread feel to it. By that I mean those early threads made that just sort of told a story.
Win or lose, we will take market shots, I hope a story gets told.
For now I'll be brief.
I have determined that this Sunday's settlement is going to be a settlement one way or the other.
It will mark the end of the second week and I am taking another market shot.
I have picked up...
267 New Orleans +2.5 (-105).
This is a BOL line, Bet105 line, etc. I am tolerating a -110 line here.
This is a market read, a market shot.
I almost pulled the trigger on the moneyline, but I think we'll look for better value.
I am making an educated guess as to which side the money will fall. If the spread drops, I will miss out on the moneyline, we may look to supplement LIVE. Even a for what may forever be know as "Foster Trading"...lol.
I talked about following the money and here I am taking a shot without any money movement at all. Money movement is it's own topic and I suspect it is going to first be addressed in this thread. After some of these basics get down, I think videos will come into play.
Anyway, I am anticipating, and I could be dead wrong. But notice my paper bet two pick up there, for what a market analyst with only 3 games to see would take.
Two pick parlays are only good when you are 0-2, or 2-0. If you go 1-1, it failed you, or you failed somewhere.
I am happy with the 0-2 two pick and the way the game last week with Pitt played out. The incompetence displayed, almost as if to discourage the better.
In this thread, along with the promises made earlier, we will combine what happens on the field, from attitudes, the TV show, and the data they generate with every snap of the ball with the markets.
If you were around for those early CFL threads, I think this will have the same feel.
This is season long example, I hope we can see it through and I hope it plays out on our side. Either way, this will be for bettors of all ilk.
New Orleans +2.5 (-105)
Paper bet
Two Pick Parlay, OPEN:
NO +2.5
________ (a total for that game)
Sadly, we have to wait for more info here and info can cost in the line. This would have to remain an OPEN parlay. It's obviously paper but this is one way we are tracking our bets and why we made them. Think about that for a moment.
See my post about the cost of information in the "Foster Trading" thread "appendices"...lol.
Stick with me early on in this thread, hear me out and refer back to my posts. It might be tough at first, but I trust you will be glad you did.
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We need Week 2 thread!!!
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Here are the week 2 Lines, for what's it worth...
These are BOL offshore and DK onshore, a general DK line. Some may vary, lol. I could put others too.
The prices are listed below the Spread and Totals, sometimes a useful way to organize it, especially when prices are extra important to analysis, like with MLB Totals.
A copy paste or pull from BOL can give it to you automatically.
Apr 22 Fri 2022- USFL BOL DK 5:00 PM ML ML 261 Michigan Panthers 1 100 O 41 1 105 O 41 -105 -110 -105 -110 262 New Jersey Generals -1 -120 U 41 -1 -125 U 41 -115 -110 -115 -110 Apr 23 Sat 2022- USFL 9:00 AM 263 Pittsburgh Maulers 7 250 O 35 7 240 O 35 -110 -105 -110 -110 264 Philadelphia Stars -7 -300 U 35 -7 -305 U 35 -110 -115 -110 -110 4:00 PM 265 Birmingham Stallions -3 -150 O 40½ -3 -150 O 41 -110 -105 -110 -110 266 Houston Gamblers 3 130 U 40½ 3 130 U 41 -110 -115 -110 -110 Apr 24 Sun 2022- USFL 12:00 PM 267 New Orleans Breakers +2½ 130 O 40½ 2.5 125 O 41 -105 -105 -110 -110 268 Tampa Bay Bandits -2½ -150 U 40½ -2.5 -145 U 41 -115 -115 -110 -110 Comment -
On thing I am looking at from a relative market perspective. I am looking at it relative to the market. This week, and season to date, which is just last week.
As the season progresses we get more precise, we build more data into the season. More accurate? Maybe the same, we'll see.
The difference between precision and accuracy is that there are degrees of precision. There are no degrees of accuracy. You are either accurate, or not. But we can reach conclusions that are more precise than others. This is a scientific approach.
Anyway. Back to my first words, lol.
One thing I am looking at is the Total in the Pitt Mauler/Philly game. Before lines came out, I mapped what I call the structure of the market. I expected money to hit the UNDER in this game, and I expect that we may be able to catch an over adjustment and go high.
There were early lines of 37.5 and sure enough it moved.
Did I buy, no.
I paper bet. Did I post it no. I was too busy to address why. I'm not trying to win points here. I'm trying to show that you don't just have to track your bets and why you made them, you can track bets you didn't make and why you made them.
So we are watching that Total. Some of Vegas, like Circa, picked this up at 36. They knew the pressure was coming and had the online confirmation. Now we look to see if the market sells an UNDER. See the Foster thread for more information on market behavior.
Watching that Total and wouldn't be surprised at a bounce, but hoping an UNDER is sold and further downward pressure in the form of steam is created.
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I want to drop two tables of information here.
First is the average spread margin by team. This is a measure of the average margin the team was, in reality, from the closing line.
For example, Michigan was a -3 point favorite over Houston. But Houston won the game by 5 points. Michigan is -8 while Houston is +8 on average spread margin so far this season. If Michigan covers the spread by 4 points this week, the next data point we will have is -2. The average of the two weeks.
I can not run models and see if we think the market is ahead of or behind a team. But we can see what the closing line has been, on average. It can be useful in a variety of ways, including help us signal a market induced runaway market. The expectation is that all the averages will funnel between the standard deviations. This will be interesting with only 4 games over 10 weeks.
But for now we just have one week.
For the spread, with just one week, our league average is 0...
For the Totals:Wk Mich NJ PHI PIT BIR HOU NO TB STD - STD Avg. 1 -8 -1 -3.5 -8 1 8 3.5 8 5.9 -5.9 0
Now here, our league average was nearly a touchdown below the market.Wk Mich NJ PHI PIT BIR HOU NO TB STD - STD Avg. 1 -14.5 12 -3.5 -21.5 12 -14.5 -3.5 -21.5 12.6 -12.6 -6.875
We had weather, etc. and we address reasons, but remember the market has opportunity to adjust. I am using the closing line here.
Think about doing this with the opening lines as well.
Notice Pitt and TB, that monday game, outside of our deviations in both sets of data. Houston and Michigan, the lone UPSET last week, is also outside of the standard deviation.
Many concepts in this thread can be expanded to other markets, your favorites sports. This is most certainly one of them. We will expand on these as data come in and watch how they develop. The small sample and talk of standard deviation might seem silly, but when you have a larger league, say the NBA, and you start running a season, a lot can happen and these can be useful. NFL too.
When we pencil in Forecasts, we'll look at tests we can run, like an average line error, that can give us some hints, especially with multiple results over time. We can see if we are beating the market, or if the market is even in the ballpark of reality.
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FNF!!!
This matchup is tough to call as both teams have flaws that I hate. Panthers with turnovers in which they turned the ball over too much last game but gained 300+ passing yds.
Missed field goals with Generals. That kicker missed 2 field goals. Seriously, you got one thing to do 60 mins in 2 mins playing time and you can’t do it right. Ugh!
Don’t trust either team to win with the spread that should actually be pick’em rather than with Generals being slight favs at -1. Generals did allow opposing team to score the most pts last week. And with Panthers moving the ball, though with only 12 pts showing for it, I’m taking the o41 (-105).Comment -
One play this weekend Took Houston early in the Week at +3 1/2.Will see how the attendance is this weekend as they go against Talladega!Comment -
Like it.
Houston might be a surprise this early season, with a potentially sharp defense and just enough offense. They were the only upset winner last week, and here they are again with basically the same line.
Good luckComment -
Yeah, Houston looked very well.Comment -
Kickoff back in play, lol.
So, for safey reasons they nearly nix the kickoff in the NFL. But in the USFL, it's back.
"Here guys, make less and play with more health risk over in this league."
Guess it's more about protecting investment than the players.
I would've slapped the chicken salad out the dude's hand and screamed for a slice.
Coach can cashme outside.
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It's worth noting the Pinny expressed some late line movement.
They were getting action on Michigan, and as they sought to even out the rush, they began charging for the Michigan +1, but more importantly, began offering +105 for NJ -1.
This can bring in another source of bettors, the scalpers. They might be doing what I have been preaching over and over again the last few days, putting themselves in a position to win.
Pinny was more than happy to attract their late action and they know the scalpers are always watching.
Eventually, Pinny blinked trades and actually moved to Michigan -1.
Two things to address with this.
1) It implies a rush of late, possibly respectable, money on Michigan. I won't speculate on the sophistication, we can't even make Forecasts.
2) I mentioned in another thread that arbers, and I can include some scalpers there, who watch the market inevitably gain in all other accounts but will constantly have to refill at Pinny. That's the way it is.
Obviously this is over time, but we thing we can conclude....The side that wins tonight will most surely give it back. We'll try to be there for it.
This thread will differ from the CFL threads for one big reason. I can not make a sharp forecast in the traditional sense. We will go over ways to make forecasts, but obviously there is a data hole. We will try to fill it.
I will make progressively sharper forecasts relative to the market, and show how it's done, but it's applying the principles to other sports where there is more data that a reader will find more value.
I will try to profile the bettors, but in such a small market, things can get sticky early on.
Now that you get a feel for who's battling who right now in the market, let's see how tonight's game plays out.
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This is down right horrendous. Never taking the over with this league.
Can’t wait for tomorrow morning with the pathetic chicken salad eating Maulers.
😂😂Comment -
Michigan was one of the Teams i was looking forward too.Then they hired Jeff Fisher.Comment -
Last night another favorite and UNDER.
The dog on the Pinny closer.
Let’s see if the story in Pitt is going to be about the toxic environment, and them being bottom of the barrel early season.
The USFL “pizza gate” is infamous.
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Im trying to get into this league,Phila offense looks good but when you have to pump in crowd noise you know your in trouble.I love when the Stars scored that touchdown the crowd went wild all 50 of them!I would rather here the drone then fake crowd noise.tvg does that when the smaller tracks run.Comment -
Maulers coach is an idiot. He's treating the players like high schoolers. Holding up a mirror to represent accountability. Then he changes story that it was multiple infractions that the player did but in the meeting he didn't say that. The hilarious part was after that segment FOX goes to commercial and the first one shown was Papa John.
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Betonline is stealing our material!
Maulers A Fade In USFL?
The Pittsburgh Maulers were absolutely terrible in Week 1 of the USFL.
They scored a measly 3-points while failing to cover the spread. Oddsmakers have now pegged them to finish last place in the league, and they are a 7-point underdog when they face the Philadelphia Stars today.
Pittsburgh notably cut RB De’Veon Smith before the game in a controversial incident involving pizza. Check out all of our Week 2 USFL odds below.
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I jumped the gun a little bit on this game.A little sloppy at times Stars and Maulers but it was a decent first half,That is all you can ask for.Anything is better than that carp game last night and i forgot how much i cant stomach Jeff Fisher.But that pumped in crowd noise is awful.Comment -
So guy cut over pizza
is this pizza gate???Comment -
Just some EXCELLENT analysis by KVB on the games. I hope everyone is absorbing the information.
This guy is so on top of the market it's scary.
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Going for 3?!?!Comment
