USFL Week 1 Lines

[Headsterx]

Yes!!!

[KVB]

Toxic culture storyline backers get the save.

It's just when these public storylines show invincibility, that the house of cards falls.

But we will also get a shit team early on, not involved in the Parity.

Pitt fits the bill, for acouple of reasons.

[KVB]

Nice work for anyone on the short side of 7.

It sucks, would like to try to throw someting out for the next game, but have to go.

Feels like the bettors are starting to buy into that favorite mentality. I think the market made a little push in that direction, not "sell" but a "push". Houston just paid people, unsophisticated bettors may have been inclined to go with them early on. Could be a balancing act in the market.

Those guys could win with a Houston cover and the move to 4 just might lend to it. Just some quick thoughts that we might get back to later.

Would be great if I could provide public gauges and sharp forecasts.

[gobucks]

Won a bet with a 3 point conversion.....love this league!

[Headsterx]

Nice work for anyone on the short side of 7.

It sucks, would like to try to throw someting out for the next game, but have to go.

Feels like the bettors are starting to buy into that favorite mentality. I think the market made a little push in that direction, not "sell" but a "push". Houston just paid people, unsophisticated bettors may have been inclined to go with them early on. Could be a balancing act in the market.

Those guys could win with a Houston cover and the move to 4 just might lend to it. Just some quick thoughts that we might get back to later.

Would be great if I could provide public gauges and sharp forecasts.

I like Houston +3.

[Headsterx]

Pick 6!

[KVB]

I like Houston +3.

Only got field goal on the turnover.

Those plus points are going to payoff. Birmingham just might splash the first half pile, taking the moneyline.

Houston ml was a dangerous play, in my opinion, that's why I mention the Hou cover above.

I smell a Birm ml winner inside 3 or 4 points.

Always so stinky to push one of those.

[KVB]

First game was the minus and over.

Something to remember.

Let's hope we get a mix and don't see 8 straight favorites to start the season.

Second game the UPSET and UNDER.

This is healthy money movement.

Since then we've seen 4 straight favorites rap off.

I'm rooting for a Houston. If there is another favorite, a bubble will build. I anticipated this bubble, and the push earlier on the 7's does help mitigate it. I mentioned the bettors pushing into that favorite mentality, they have fat wallets now too.

Some market analyists follow just this type of money, and pick it off at the right time. Make no mistake, I'm talking about advantage betting, with an edge, but I'm talking about "micro" ways to pick off the market. We need to use data to form opinions and regressions as well.

Like "Foster Trading" is good for some levels of bettor, so is this for some levels of market analyst. It's another small aspect of a larger business.

I think if we get another favorite tonight, it puts tomorrow's +2.5 in some jeopardy.

We wouldn't want them to "oversell" the play I thought would be sold to begin with...

...I almost pulled the trigger on the moneyline, but I think we'll look for better value.

I am making an educated guess as to which side the money will fall. If the spread drops, I will miss out on the moneyline, we may look to supplement LIVE. Even a for what may forever be know as "Foster Trading"...lol.

I talked about following the money and here I am taking a shot without any money movement at all. Money movement is it's own topic and I suspect it is going to first be addressed in this thread. After some of these basics get down, I think videos will come into play.

Anyway, I am anticipating, and I could be dead wrong. But notice my paper bet two pick up there, for what a market analyst with only 3 games to see would take....

New Orleans +2.5 (-105)...

If we are to keep track of our bets, and why we made them, it's best to review why you made them. When we work on models, the inputs and the relative weightings of those inputs are the "why" we made the bet, when one is triggered.

Again, wish I could using stacking percentage Forecasts and even the public gauge.

I'm sure you do to.

[KVB]

...I talked about following the money and here I am taking a shot without any money movement at all. Money movement is it's own topic and I suspect it is going to first be addressed in this thread. After some of these basics get down, I think videos will come into play....

Even mid game, in between sets of games, like the Saturday night USFL game, money flows.

I've already talke a little about where the money settles this game, and with the underdog winning the half, and lead change, you can see that money has essentially changed hands.

Those who have read the FlyMe thread, and even back in the CFL days, have seen me talk about why things might overtime, have seen me predict comebacks, even at specific times, and have even seen me discuss these principals in the context of the PGA, including predicting extra holes.

Not unlike a stock market where it's up one moment then down another, and unrealized market money has changed hands in sports markets unrealized, unsettled funds will change hands, and we can often see this when lines to later games, including settlment games, move.

We can also see it when they don't move. But line moves mean little, unless we understand the motivation behind them.

Either way, the betting public will react to what they see, they are sucked into the game.
Think about it.

Let's see how tonight's result, combined with the last two weeks, affects the so far rather static settlement game's markets tomorrow. Will the line movement, if any, be in line with the story? Will it appear fake?

This is what we are watching for, these are the questions we are asking.

[KVB]

As the favorite takes control and goes on to cover, I think we see the +2.5 drop tomorrow, to +1.5. If that's what happens tonigh.

And while it might represent my market shot +2.5 beating the closer, I might not be so happy about it.

Let's see if the market gives us the opportunity to get a middle here, the opportunity to buy -1.5. Not saying I will, but let's see if materializes.

If we get move to 3 on tomorrow's line, it presents the kind of situation that brings value to the underdog ml. Doesn't mean it will, but remember I'm offering principles that will apply to other markets.

This is one way value can be generated on an underdog moneyline.

[KVB]

Houston with the chance to flip the money late.

A story we've all seen happen a million times before, in all sports.

[KVB]

....Not unlike a stock market where it's up one moment then down another, and unrealized market money has changed hands in sports markets unrealized, unsettled funds will change hands, and we can often see this when lines to later games, including settlment games, move.

We can also see it when they don't move. But line moves mean little, unless we understand the motivation behind them.

Either way, the betting public will react to what they see, they are sucked into the game.
Think about it...

Have you ever noticed those days in the NFL, the witching hour, where a large number of morning games come within a possession of the spread or Total, or both? Leaving the money out there undecided as the later games go off? Have you ever paid close attention to it?

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it and it's only after you can appreciate what they bring that you can truly appreciate how they bring it.

It looks they brought another favorite tonight.

Let's see how that affects tomorrow's line, if at all.



Sharon is sure to walk through this post, please don't quote it in a reply.

[KVB]

Only got field goal on the turnover.

Those plus points are going to payoff. Birmingham just might splash the first half pile, taking the moneyline.

Houston ml was a dangerous play, in my opinion, that's why I mention the Hou cover above.

I smell a Birm ml winner inside 3 or 4 points.

Always so stinky to push one of those.

5 point win and another favorite.

Stinkly indeed.

[Headsterx]

5 point win and another favorite.

Stinkly indeed.

[Headsterx]

Ever since that Friday Night stinker, the games are high scoring in coving the over by halftime. Two solid teams by USFL standards are playing today. Gotta take o40, right?

[KVB]

Heading into the last hour of trading this week.

Watching the underdog moneyline here, if this line can blink upward, in the face of a public that has bought into the favorite story, I just might hit that dog moneyline.

For now, lines fairly steady with a little bit of price movement on the 2.5.

There is pressure on the dog, make no mistake, but between the balance of the public favorite bettors, attracted by the -2.5, the prospect of a FG to cover, the books and market have split bets like they wanted.

Again, an hout to go but at least it doesn't appear the market is "selling" the underdog here.

This bodes well for the +2.5 and +ml bettors.

We could really have a lot to go on if I was able to model the league, even with just two weeks played.

Once we get to 4 weeks, we will see a certain population of "sharp" bettors come into the league. I will point this out when this happens.

Still on and liking the +2.5, win or lose.

[KVB]

Ever since that Friday Night stinker, the games are high scoring in coving the over by halftime. Two solid teams by USFL standards are playing today. Gotta take o40, right?

...New Orleans +2.5 (-105)

Paper bet

Two Pick Parlay, OPEN:

NO +2.5
________ (a total for that game)...

Acutally Headster I'm thinking the other way.

The paper bet two pick parlay is...

NO +2.5
UNDER 40.5.

In these situations, it's often the Total that splashes our pile.

Totals can be easier to predict in general, across leagues, but when it comes to settlement games history shoes it tends to go awry, no matter the sports or markets.

If we do get the underdog, it could come in an OVER.

Even so, I make the two pick based on money flow, not advantage betting, and recognize the mistakes we can make when doing so.

It's not enough just to "switch" your play or "fade" yourself.

It's a process and I am trying to show pitfalls, before they get us.

Remember, even if our calcualations of probabillity are scantily clad at best and non existent in reality so far for this league, it's still a game of probabilities.
So I'm paper betting that UNDER in the two pick, because Over just might be in the cards.

One hour of trading left this week.

[KVB]

Had I been on UNDER 40.5 in these current circumstances, on the little info we have, I might consider an OVER 39.5 as middle opportunity.

Not unlike a -1.5 I mentioned yesterday, had the market shifted that way.

[KVB]

We are seeing +130 for New Orleans out there.

I consider that a potentially viable shot. Will shop and possibly be making a buy here.

[Headsterx]

Acutally Headster I'm thinking the other way.

The paper bet two pick parlay is...

NO +2.5
UNDER 40.5.

In these situations, it's often the Total that splashes our pile.

Totals can be easier to predict in general, across leagues, but when it comes to settlement games history shoes it tends to go awry, no matter the sports or markets.

If we do get the underdog, it could come in an OVER.

Even so, I make the two pick based on money flow, not advantage betting, and recognize the mistakes we can make when doing so.

It's not enough just to "switch" your play or "fade" yourself.

It's a process and I am trying to show pitfalls, before they get us.

Remember, even if our calcualations of probabillity are scantily clad at best and non existent in reality so far for this league, it's still a game of probabilities.
So I'm paper betting that UNDER in the two pick, because Over just might be in the cards.

One hour of trading left this week.

Excellent info, but I can't help myself. I got the over right at 40. May take Breakers @ +130

[KVB]

Just wait and see how you get that OVER, that's going to be a fun one, maybe even OT.

Today the USFL makes a statement. Many spreads and scores have been close, today a statement gets made.

I feel one was made last Monday today becomes revenge for some of us.

A favorite in a blowout is a statement.

So is the underdog taking multiple score lead early, then losing it. There are more statements, but let's start with the basics.

[KVB]

Money is in fact hitting the moneyline here on the dog, lines are thinning.

They remain stubborn on the spread.

I have added to the market shot with...

New Orleans +128

This is BM buy. I do see some +123's out there and this fine for you gamblers, but know it's not a longer term trigger pull, especailly with the info we have.

It's tough enough determining long term value with the info we have, so I am estimating there when it comes to prices.

I have two market shots in today with New Orleans on the +2.5, and now the moneyline.

It's the dog's bet to lose today.

We seek the UPSET.

Let's see how it plays out.

[KVB]

American markets trying to blink to -3.

If you've followed along these last few posts, you'll understand what I mean when the I say much of the American public is unsophisticated, even if they win their bets. They don't know if they are aligned with other market particiapnts or not, they do not forecast, they will get pushed around by the market itself.

We all will get pushed around, these groups of bettors are just a little less aware of it.

Note, the US market by it -3, but they won't want to break +125.

Cheap bastards.

[KVB]

I hope you have been reading, I don't want to requote everything that applies here.

Bookmaker has moved to -3 (+105), ml at +125.

But Pinny, the other way.

They have dropped this completely stagnant line to +2.

Could it be pressure on the moneyine? Pressure on the spread? A fake movement?

Bookmaker wants players on the -3, that's what they're looking for this last few minutes of trading They'll take the scalpers, if need be.

Pinny said nope, we'll just tick down half a point. Are they looking for favorite bettors to come shopping too?

So what do you think?

Win or lose, was +2.5, +128 a sharp play?

[KVB]

One thing is for sure.

I would hate to lead early here.

If NO takes the 3-0 lead, the sharks will come out and we will be talking about LIVE trading.

I am prediciting NO to score first, to excite those markets. The market will seek volume at one point, they will entice they traders.

If they don't, and don't score at all, getting blown out, a statement will have been made.

[KVB]

BM back to 2.5 for tip off.

They sought some favorite money, pressure on the dog may have been mounting.

But the market "sharps" can't pass up a +3.

Pinny knew it, they fukking knew it. Literally the only 2 in the marketplace.

This game will be interesting, in my opinion.

[KVB]

One thing is for sure.

I would hate to lead early here.

If NO takes the 3-0 lead, the sharks will come out and we will be talking about LIVE trading.

I am prediciting NO to score first, to excite those markets. The market will seek volume at one point, they will entice they traders.

If they don't, and don't score at all, getting blown out, a statement will have been made.

After a punt byt TB, New Orleans gets the first score. But misses the XP to cause question.

LIVE markets are getting excited.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it but it's only after one can appreciate what they bring thay they can truly appreciate how they bring it.

Let's not get the cart ahead of the horse. Let's keep working on what they bring, the story of how they bring practically tells itself.

Can you pick up what I'm putting down?

[Headsterx]

Breaker, Breaker... the Bandits are down by 7

[KVB]

One thing is for sure.

I would hate to lead early here.

If NO takes the 3-0 lead, the sharks will come out and we will be talking about LIVE trading...

3-0, 6-0, same situation.

[KVB]

I have no plan to buy Live here, I am rolling with the market shot.

TB is LIVE at plus odds, but those odds are terribly short, naturally.

If we get up two scores too early, for the purpose of this thread I will reevaluate the market and decision to buy.

But I hope, in combination with the Foster trading thread, that readers can get an idea of what it takes to develop a play in which you can predict the team score first, and evetnually the comeback.

Who knows, maybe the statement today is a New Orleans blow out.

[KVB]

Just some EXCELLENT analysis by KVB on the games. I hope everyone is absorbing the information.
This guy is so on top of the market it's scary.

Appreciate the kind words Tanko.

I don't get a lot of feedback, virtually none negative. But every now and then a decent capper in his own right comes in and drops a word.

Thank you.

Let's hope this thread gives us something special, even if what I'm doing is a little dangerous.

[Headsterx]

Breaker, Breaker... the Rubber Duck is KVB and Breakers up 14... correction on previous score as Breakers missed extra pt but made up w/ 2pt.

[KVB]

Bandits better than 3-1 LIVE, that +300 is a support point for some traders.

I am not trading this game LIVE, not with the info gaps we have. That would be out of the scope of this thread.

But I hope you get the idea and that you can pick up what I'm putting down. So far, this week has provided a good example for us, and we just might win some bets.

Can't ask for much more than that.

Keep track of your bets and why you made them.

[KVB]

Breaker, Breaker... the Rubber Duck is KVB and Breakers up 14... correction on previous score as Breakers missed extra pt but made up w/ 2pt.

I've even made a video to try to relate to the Moron(o)'s of the betting and posting world...

[KVB]

Was just about to say that with the FG and 17-0, that we have a slow down in the fast start rate of scoring.

And that it's time for TB to respond.

But the kick was blocked and outright missed.

A TB response here brings out the circling sharks for sure...