Breaker, Breaker... TB responded with successful FG unlike Breakers... 14-3
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TB with -2 yard first three drives.
Then answer the blocked kick with a 75+ yard drive and a Field Goal.
Fuk.
Not going LIVE as a point in this thread. Not only is it beyond the scope of the thread, but I really don't want posters and readers to believe the LIVE markets are an easy target. I don't want them to think it is a crutch, the vigorish will kill us.
Foster trading and the like is for specific instances, and for advantage bettors that can produce probabilities, even though much of that material in the Scott Foster thread that isn't about Scott Foster is for bettors of all shapes and sizes.
Score is 14-3. TB is still short on the LIVE side with odds, even if they are better than +230.
There's a lot of game left and what I said pregame is all the more true now...
Because it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.
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The Nbc coverage is much better today without that fake pumped in crowd noise like yesterday!Comment -
Breaker, Breaker... they're blowing my doors off... 21-3
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NO answering with a TD.
Starting to like the texture of this game, but we don't spend or bet our winnings just yet. This movement of money is still an unrealized gain.
The UPSET blowout is most certainly a statement, but one we will have to dissect, if it happens.
A lot of game to play and from the beginning we said it would be New Orleans game to lose.
It still is.
This is the kind of pick that can turn around no matter the lead. In fact the bigger the lead in the first half, the worse it can be for us.
Sports betting involves a game of halves. And those halves can be broken in half. Just like a sports season.
Real talk.Comment -
Bookmaker said "-2.5 (-110 or even -108) no enough? what about -3 (+105), they underestimated the sharp money in the crowd waiting to pounce."
In the staring contest, Pinny just blinked to -2 like they got a sharp dart in the eye.
The rest of the market held study, which bodes very well for us.
21-3 at halftime
If it's a blowout, the sharps will be emboldened and make no mistake, like I said from the very beginning of the week, they will steer money and we will be there to take it down.
The sharks are circling, who's money will fall? The market has produced, with the help of the field, basically 5 straight favorites and 6 of 7 the same. Unless you were at Pinny, and picked up the +1, in line with who? Remember the +105 crowd, including the scalpers.
There is a story here being told. I am an advantage bettor, and I am a market analyst. Do we even know what a "sharp" bettor is?
I strongly, strongly, suggest you re-read everything I have written up to this point. Especially from the beginning of this week. Then read it again. Then again.
Can you pick up what I'm putting down?
The sharks are circling, make no mistake. They are circling huge. But we maintain our postion.
We might as well just pet them at this point...
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If you watch this your a loser
I cannot think of any scenario that you are notComment -
What about the Total? I haven't been talking about that. But I did form an opinion on the game Total today for the two pik.
They showed us the Dog and the OVER.
It is likely one or both of those change. But we can't get the favorite and UNDER.
That's ruled out.
The OVER bettors could be in jeopardy, it appears, if the dog were to hold.
But I'm telling you, there are sharks everywhere...
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In my paper bet two pick, when money is steered on one the bets, like this week, the other, usually the Total, can fukk you.
Last week's two pik was a perfect "0-2" and week to week, in these two week cycles, it's tough to get again.
But this is the USFL, the very first two weeks of the season. Whatever the results today, it will be cat and mouse from here.
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lol Gold, I think my screens are showing a couple bets. About to stress the OMEN even more.
Fuk.
It's official though, I have or had the UNDERS in every NBA game but MIA/ATL tonight. No opinion there. Won in chicago, did post it in FlyMe, techninically.
Need to get down.
Back in a bit.Comment -
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Breaker, Breaker... Breakers leading 31-3 but wait someone wants to say read a book but don't learn how to spell.
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By the way, Circa is releasing some USFL lines.Comment -
They know who's counting their money right now.
Could be one of the best threads on the internet.Comment -
Can't you just fell the OVER coming?
Or is it to early in the season to try the LIVE tricks?
Experienced gamblers are patient. No matter what side you are on, your time will come.
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And when your time comes, that's when you start looking for correlations.
Things that will pad you because it's your time.
If you do get an edge, it's smart breakdown in your inputs what could apply to props and alternate lines. 1st half, halftime, edges to be had all around if there is value in the bigger line. Be smart about it. It doesn't matter the sport. But think about the NFL. You think its an UNDER because you see ball control, etc, look at the rushing the props. The possibilities in the way you handicap the game can be endless.
Maybe it's the line that's efficient, but it's so close to your forecast. Sprinkle the prop market, if you can get down, if it hasn't already been splashed.
Vig is tough onshore here, I must admit, but props are easier to cap.Comment -
OK, let's see if these guys win.
Let's see if the OVER bet pays. Or did they get sucked out? It will most definitely come in handy later.
Who is where, and it what type of games?
Clear settlement game, clear message sent.
It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it. But we must first appreciate what they bring, before we can appreciate how the bring it.
I think I'm not done getting that NBA UNDERComment -
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Shit, lol.
They're already asking?
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Circa has Pit -3 over Michigan Total 40.5
Philly -21.5 over NJ Total 40.5.
I mentioned that things come in pairs, but we'll call them "two's" because it is such a building block of this system. When we see pairs, we look backwards first, what's the story?
You know the story, it's in this thread. Those UNDER bettors got paid, and they they have more money than the other side, trust me on that one.
But back to pairs. They can be used to generate action one way or another. And we can see they are messing with early Total bettors, that just cashed. To some it's a goldmine, to others these Totals markets are a minefield.
Circa blinking down to 39.5
They opened in pairs. We will get into the signifcance of and difference between the roles both the opener and closer play.
Notice the line above did not open in pairs. And a 2.5 is different than a 3.5, when next to a 3. But in USFL? These are psychological levels here, not yet model based numbers. Think about it.
I know there will be more games this week on the board, but this is where the story begins.
Know your markets. These lines are Circa. Limits, etc, are not a factor in this analysis, they do not need to be.
We don't change the system, we ride the waves of the system. I could go on, can't right now.
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No Friday games. But doubleheaders on Sat and Sun. Just realized they have 2 divisions South (good teams) and North (horrible teams). South plays on Sat and North on Sun with the train wreck of the year matchup: Maulers (pizzagate) v. Panthers (Fisher). But before you throw up that pizza on Sun, there are 2 decent games on Sat.Comment -
Yeah so this week it's a minefield I expect to see all kinds of things come out to try to draw in the money paid out last Sunday. It's a cat and mouse game, and it has really just begun. I think more could be accomplished going over last week than this week. I almost dropped the mic in this thread, almost. I think it's already packed with info to unwind and work on.
Everything from it taking two weeks to get a good play to those sharks coming out on Sunday, but not biting us.
This week I see a plan for the movement of money. And that's the problem. It's too obvious and it's loaded with deception. I mentioned things come in pairs, it's so basic that I call them "two's" because that's all you need to split money, two.
So this week we have a two days, with two games each day. A lot can be absorbed from just the first games results and it's the kind of weekend where you can make a 4 pick parlay, go 3-0, then have the sharks bite you on Sulnday afternoon.
I'm not going to paper that, at least not at this point in writing. But they did again, they set up Sunday afternoon like last week and even showed us downward movement, early on.
Do the books think we're stupid?
Yes, yes the do.
I look for NJ to take the lead early Sunday and then we bite in the LIVE market for Philly to come back. This gameplan is so obvous, if fact, that the market will be extremely tight. It's so obvious, if fact that it could fail. Taking NJ first, on the moneyline, and trying to get both teams as dogs could just be "too easy" there.
Let's see how some of the first games play out. I am not making a play, nor am I making a two pick or any other parlay. Yet.
Let's watch the money begin to move. What I will say is that if you own or like NJ +2.5 ot to win on Sunday, good luck to you. There are still 3 giant, flooded potholes on the road from here to there so I could even change my tune, but I smell a fishy tuna trap.
And yes, the market will trap bettors, it will offer a similar or otherwise sexy play to bettors that have jsut filled their pockets. Think two week cylce though, and it works both ways.
For example, it was TB who succeeded in taking the impatient bettors money on Pitt (my bet week 1) and did Pitt give back? Not really, unless you count the push on 7. But what of TB?
So what about Pitt this week? And guess what. Early on, very early Pitt, who is now a 3.5 point underdog, was actually favored by 3 points, in Vegas.
Like I said, it's an ongoing story. Wish I had a play for the Forum, I don't. We must be patient. But if you read above, I've made a very specific game plan on how the final game is going to be brought. We're looking for that LIVE bet we didn't make last week.
Pitt +3.5 is on our radar and I will make a determination possibly early in the game one this week.
In fact, I'm almost ready to put it in bold now but I think if it drops back to 3, and that is the cost of getting more information, then this week I will pay that cost.
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Actually, mapping that schedule among the divisions is revealing. I could write another book in this post.
Week one the divisions all crossed, North played South in every game, I tried to get a market shot bet in on the last game, but it was only 1 week, not two.
Then week two they all played withing their division. We got settlement of both conditions with the correct two pick, blowout under, etc.
This week they are all within division again and the schedule sets up the same as last week. Philly appears to be a fughazi favorite.
But are they?
Pitt also likes like a good bet, a good market shot, but remember they come with risks. There will be an ass team, one that can't cover shit for an number of games straight. A healthy market shows give and take, with extremes that buck the health. This week sets up for Michigan or Pittzagateburgh to emerge as the bad apple.
That game is not about the winner, it's about the loser. Only reason I haven't pulled the trigger on Pitt.
Funny how that game, of all of them, had a -3 favorite at the early open flip to more the 3 points on the other side.
Funny, huh.
Now that we've looked at what's being brought tomorrow early, let's see how it gets brought, and played on the field.
So these are tomorrow's games I've discussed. Notice I haven't touched today's games. I am once again trying to anticipate, and with the information I have, the protocol is to watch today, see where things fall.
I expect that NJ gets "sold" in the marketplace and anyone who's read the Foster thread that's not about Foster and has read about the Fister (no typo) trading knows what I expect when I say that.
Are they being sold? Yeah, sort of. But like I said it's a pothole filled road between here and there. I could be on the complete wrong side this week but expect some back and forth gameplay in Pitt/Mich, it will be a tough issue to settle. Maybe we see OT. Then I expect NJ to take an early lead, even 3-0, and that be their doom.
Someone once said, never have expectation, then you can never be disappointed. Well I say fukk that. In this world of give and take sports betting, the joyful will become disappointed and the disappointed will become joyful.
Let's take advantage of that fact.Comment -
So if we were to take the easy road here we could construct a two pick parley on Sunday of Pitt/Philly.
If I'm right and Philly is the "answer" then it's probaly not Pitt, because the issue settling on Michigan would fall into line with NJ being sold. Any probabilites based on the market I can come up with are really limited because money just settled, but they would tend toward Michigan here with Philly in the settlement game.
Paper Two pick, prior to any information on Saturday...
Michigan -3.5
Philly -2.5 (or even -1.5, which is out there)
But let's make it even more definitive, because of the line movement we've seen let's make it a ml parlay...
Mich ml
Philly ml
In this instance I'm not line shopping here, it's not about units, it's about the structure.
I think we see one favorite today and one dog today, against the spreads and possibly see two favorites tomorrow. If I am wrong, maybe it's dog crazy this weekend.
We must still watch for LIVE opportunity and the gameplan I see, if I am on the "correct" side, is for game one, which could see OT, to have Pitt leading with a Michigan coming back. As Pitt leads, we could see the NF/Philly line drop even further.
So now in each game tomorrow, we could have a LIVE opportunity as the onfield activity plays into the market structure. Remember, we are still dealing in probablities but there are efforts here to view the markets through mutliple lenses.
That's what I've done here.
There's a common misconception that each game is independant of each other. Perhaps a video explaining just how intertwined these games, and spread, and moneylines truly are.
Today, we start by just watching games and results. If sports betting has a way of making you look smarter than you are and dumber than you are, and last week made me look smarter, then this is the kind of week where the dumber part comes out.
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Great Info tough week i thought.Put a little on Pitt.Fade Jeff Fisher for me!Comment -
Here are some basic lines, early opener and where they are now.
TB with such a short spread, not surprised it rose, but could they lose again?
Open Move Open Move TB -1.5 -3.5 39 38.5 HOU 1.5 3.5 39 38.5 Birm 3 5.5 44.5 NO -3 -5.5 44.5 PIT -3 3.5 40.5 38.5 MICH 3 -3.5 40.5 38.5 NJ 2.5 2 40.5 42 PHI -2.5 -2 40.5 42 Comment -
Game two has Birmingham and NO, Birmingham has covered as a favorite in both games so far, NO covered as a favorite, and then gave us the big settlement Sunday night.
Big game there for bettors.
Just as someone will be ass early on, a team will also be
. Either Birmingham or New Orleans gets to come out as before Pitt and Mich fight it out for ass.
Now that we've broken down the and ass this week, notice these games have had big movement, some room to middle them. This leaves the and ass question down to openers, and at least one more week to get a clear picture about closers.
Remember, it takes two weeks to get a good play.
That New Orleans move from -3 to -5.5 is pretty big, could be representative of an overreaction to last Sunday.
Birmingham +5.5 could be a good bet here, and 6 is even better.
The 6 point lines so far this season have been favorites covering. I see this weeks's 6 point line, or 5.5, going to the underdog. We could be in position to make a market shot on Birmingham here.
Again, it's a minefield but I'm trying to navigate the field.
Paper Bet:
3 pick parlay...
Birm +6
Mich -3.5
Phi-2
Let's follow the money.
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I love it when a team scores off a stupid call.Punt or go for it no Haley sends in the kicker,Miss 55 yard field Goal. Houston comes back longest run from scrimmage td.Haley what a buffoon!Comment -
Houston having the lead would tend to pull the bettor with this thinking off of the Birmingham as a dog in game two. Notice I said if I'm wrong, it could be dog crazy.
I'm not convinced it's Houston yet, but Birmingham pings either way.
Also notice, as the dog takes off in game 1, extending the lead, we see the favorire move from some 5.5s to 6 across the board. I'm not the only one thinking one favorite, one dog.
Are they selling New Orleans?
Shoud we be buying Birmingham? Just might gamble today on a market shot with Birmingham.
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