Is there anybody here who wins at MLB consistently??

[EGrecu]

How do you guys do it?

I can consistently pick winners at a 55-60% clip in NBA just focusing on teams who consistently cover spreads or consistently go under or over and just focusing on matchups


MLB is so much harder. You consistently have great teams getting blown out by shit teams

[pavyracer]

Check out LT Profits. He is on fire today with his picks. May have a perfect day if he wins the night games.

[Rich Boy]

How do you guys do it?

I can consistently pick winners at a 55-60% clip in NBA just focusing on teams who consistently cover spreads or consistently go under or over and just focusing on matchups


MLB is so much harder. You consistently have great teams getting blown out by shit teams

Just bet dogs and unders and you are ahead of 90% of MLB cappers

[EGrecu]

Just bet dogs and unders and you are ahead of 90% of MLB cappers

That's no guarantee you'll win at 55% equivalent

[svsooner]

Manster has been on fire lately. Check out his thread.

[texhooper]

That's no guarantee you'll win at 55% equivalent

If you bet dogs you don’t have to hit 55% but you’re not real anyway so who cares

[JayLA]

Just like many of us, even guys who have an edge are streaky. I was just talking to my bookie and he said 90% of his players go on runs. It's the reason why most of us keep coming back. If we were to lose constantly, we would likely not keep betting. In my opinion, any bettor who wins higher than 56% over a huge sample size won't tell anyone about it.

[Fishhead]

Babe ruth

[Da Manster!]

Manster has been on fire lately. Check out his thread.

^^^...what SVSooner said!....

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3423270-da-mansters-all-sports-picks-thread-p57.html

[TheLock]

From 2017-2021 I am +53.18 units over the course of 602 plays (all documented here on SBR).

Low volume, though. No chasing.

[EGrecu]

From 2017-2021 I am +53.18 units over the course of 602 plays (all documented here on SBR).

Low volume, though. No chasing.

What kind of plays do you shoot for?

[jjgold]

A few

[TheLock]

What kind of plays do you shoot for?

Overly contrarian plays

[EGrecu]

Overly contrarian plays

Elaborate

[EGrecu]

If you bet dogs you don’t have to hit 55% but you’re not real anyway so who cares

I said 55-56% equivalent in terms of ATS betting


Like if your avg play is +120 and you win at 50%. That's about 55% equivalent

[TheLock]

Elaborate

If all signs point to Team A beating Team B, I take Team B.

I have a checklist that comes into play (which includes looking at xFIP of the starting pitchers , team Run Differentials, % of bets coming in on the sides etc etc etc).

[EGrecu]

If all signs point to Team A beating Team B, I take Team B.

I have a checklist that comes into play (which includes looking at xFIP of the starting pitchers , team Run Differentials, % of bets coming in on the sides etc etc etc).

Interesting


So you consistently bet against aces and great teams?

[texhooper]

I said 55-56% equivalent in terms of ATS betting


Like if your avg play is +120 and you win at 50%. That's about 55% equivalent

Ok fine but you’re not real so it doesn’t matter anyway

[VeggieDog]

Bump.

[eidolon]

Just fade my April and September picks

[jjgold]

juice a major factor baseball

[gauchojake]

juice a major factor baseball

Yes

If you know who is juicing that is the key

[EGrecu]

Yes

If you know who is juicing that is the key

what do you guys think about just focusing on teams and scenarios that are undervalued or overvalued?


for example - the orioles are -102 and mariners are -118 today. The mariners have been a huge disappointment and are slightly worse than baltimore. This game is in baltimore - the line in my opinion should be Baltimore - 140ish. Slight advantage in overall team quality + home field advantage


Can you win long term in baseball focusing on undervalued and overvalued scenarios?

[TheLock]

what do you guys think about just focusing on teams and scenarios that are undervalued or overvalued?


for example - the orioles are -102 and mariners are -118 today. The mariners have been a huge disappointment and are slightly worse than baltimore. This game is in baltimore - the line in my opinion should be Baltimore - 140ish. Slight advantage in overall team quality + home field advantage


Can you win long term in baseball focusing on undervalued and overvalued scenarios?

This is essentially the opposite of what I do.

I’m not saying that the Mariners are a play for me today.

But in scenarios similar to these where books are dangling a carrot to the public that screams “hey look public! This team that should be -140 is only -105 so you guys should POUND them at -105!!”…….

……I tend to play the other side.

[EGrecu]

This is essentially the opposite of what I do.

I’m not saying that the Mariners are a play for me today.

But in scenarios similar to these where books are dangling a carrot to the public that screams “hey look public! This team that should be -140 is only -105 so you guys should POUND them at -105!!”…….

……I tend to play the other side.

So did you play Seattle or Angels today?

I had the Angels game handicapped at about -160. I was shocked when I saw the 118 line

[atthehalf]

Fantasy league betting for MLB is easier than this format. You can actually lose in this format due to an error or two and at the same time get a huge win in a fantasy league just by studying the pitchers and offenses. Betting on the actual game is tougher to be sure and a 50% clip at the end of a season is good provided you didn't get killed with juice and had more totals and underdogs in the mix. I won't go over -165 for any move...ever. you just kind of take your punches and when you have a good week-then you hurry up and cash out. As fast as the money in your account disappears when you lose you have to have the same mindset when you win. This by far is the most common error by sports bettors who bet online. They leave their stack in too long and play it all back.

Personally I tend to stay away from a full event move in MLB tho.

The bullpens will give you heartburn on an empty stomach. I would rather take my chances on the listed pitchers during the time that they are in the game than to be at the mercy of a manager selecting a guy with a 9.12 ERA in the bottom of the 8th to go in and piss on your money. plus you can get some push moves in the event that the game ends up in a tie in the first five frames and you have the ML, or if the total is say 4 and 4 runs are scored. Over the course of a season those push moves help a bit with the overall objective.

Anyway good luck to you today and every day

[atthehalf]

Now there was a guy about 7 or so years ago who only made moves on the second games of double headers taking the losing side of the first game and making a move on them in the second game. He kept a really good record going over a couple of years period. That takes great patience yet it seemed pretty good nonetheless

[VeggieDog]

Now there was a guy about 7 or so years ago who only made moves on the second games of double headers taking the losing side of the first game and making a move on them in the second game. He kept a really good record going over a couple of years period. That takes great patience yet it seemed pretty good nonetheless

Interesting theory.

Very small sample size, but so far this year there have been 25 double headers. The same team won both games 8 times. The other team won the second game 17 times. (This doesn't include today's Yanks/Halos double header.)

I guess a person could do the splits between Fav/Dog, Home/Road, etc., but it seems like there wouldn't be a whole lot of betting opportunities. With 30 teams playing 162 games, I would look elsewhere. But still, a fun theory to check out.

[Fred The Hammer]

I used to beat mlb during the steroid era then it felt like they beat me every year. I would basically just screw around occasionally but save up for football.

This year though with DraftKings. They give me these Same Game Parlay boosts every day and I've been smoking them! Its always $50 or $100 limit with the boost, but for instance tonight I hit 2 SGPs with the Reds $40 each and got back $496. Of course you'll lose more then you win, but I love them. I hit one with the Rockies in the first inning the other night for $235 profit on $50. Its probably not worth big players time, but I like them


2 specific things I like about my current books DK & BetMgM as well. DK has 5 inning team totals and I started off red hot with finding shitty pitchers where the team was Over 1.5 -135 or something thru 5 innings. Granted these were usually not good hitting teams like my Reds or a similar team, but bad pitchers find it hard to hold anyone to 1 or less thru 5 innings. Got burned a little in May though? I had Milw Over 2.5 thru 5 in Wrigley the other day vs a first time starter with the wind blowing out. They only got 2 and I lost but of course they went apeshit in the 6th and ended up winning 7-6 I think. Its a work in progress

MGM has team totals with alternate lines which I like as well against the shitty pitchers

[italianbandit]

what do you guys think about just focusing on teams and scenarios that are undervalued or overvalued?


for example - the orioles are -102 and mariners are -118 today. The mariners have been a huge disappointment and are slightly worse than baltimore. This game is in baltimore - the line in my opinion should be Baltimore - 140ish. Slight advantage in overall team quality + home field advantage


Can you win long term in baseball focusing on undervalued and overvalued scenarios?

My instinct tells me this is a ghost account of someone trying to have fun but I’m overly caffeinated and it’s midnight.

First of all lines can’t be -118, -102. More importantly, what you have to consider is that an individual such as yourself can’t out think an efficient market like MLB game lines based on layers upon layers of advanced statistics, computer modeling and vig by 60 points with this logic:

“The mariners have been a huge disappointment and are slightly worse than baltimore. This game is in baltimore - “

The Locke let’s the books do the capping for him, and incorporates a pen and paper model, and low volume which keeps him in the green. It’s tight for a rec better.

You either need to watch a lot of the sport or get good at statistics and basic computer modeling. I’d spend the money on the sport you like the best and the rest on hookers. Nice hookers ya know.

[TheLock]

My instinct tells me this is a ghost account of someone trying to have fun but I’m overly caffeinated and it’s midnight.

First of all lines can’t be -118, -102. More importantly, what you have to consider is that an individual such as yourself can’t out think an efficient market like MLB game lines based on layers upon layers of advanced statistics, computer modeling and vig by 60 points with this logic:

“The mariners have been a huge disappointment and are slightly worse than baltimore. This game is in baltimore - “

The Locke let’s the books do the capping for him, and incorporates a pen and paper model, and low volume which keeps him in the green. It’s tight for a rec better.

You either need to watch a lot of the sport or get good at statistics and basic computer modeling. I’d spend the money on the sport you like the best and the rest on hookers. Nice hookers ya know.

Post Of The Month nominee

[atthehalf]

Interesting theory.

Very small sample size, but so far this year there have been 25 double headers. The same team won both games 8 times. The other team won the second game 17 times. (This doesn't include today's Yanks/Halos double header.)

I guess a person could do the splits between Fav/Dog, Home/Road, etc., but it seems like there wouldn't be a whole lot of betting opportunities. With 30 teams playing 162 games, I would look elsewhere. But still, a fun theory to check out.

Yes it does take great patience-however based on your research offering you can see why that guy was killing it betting HEAVILY for those opportunities. I can't remember his name. That was the sole scenario that he would bet.

[Headsterx]

Manster has been on fire lately. Check out his thread.

[brock]

4950833
May 31 07:10 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[954] NYM -1½+102
( ACTION / ACTION )

60.00 / 61.20

61.20
WIN
WIN
05/31/2022 01:16 PM
Ticket #: 4951238
Jun 01 01:10 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[916] CLE -1½+137
( ACTION / ACTION )

60.00 / 82.20

82.20
WIN
WIN
06/01/2022 11:47 AM
Ticket #: 4951407
Jun 01 07:05 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET (FP)
[921] TOTAL o9+103 (SEA vrs BAL)
( ACTION / ACTION )

0.00 / 61.80

61.80
WIN
WIN
06/01/2022 04:17 PM
Ticket #: 4951239
Jun 01 07:10 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[926] DET +104
( ACTION )

60.00 / 62.40

62.40
WIN
WIN
06/01/2022 11:47 AM
Ticket #: 4951240
Jun 01 07:10 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[929] CIN +179
( ACTION )

60.00 / 107.40

-60.00
LOSE
LOSE
06/01/2022 11:47 AM
Ticket #: 4951237
Jun 01 08:10 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[913] PIT +224
( ACTION )

60.00 / 134.40

134.40
WIN
WIN
06/01/2022 11:47 AM
Ticket #: 4951714
Jun 02 03:07 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[968] TOR -1½EV
( ACTION / ACTION )

60.00 / 60.00

60.00
WIN
WIN
06/02/2022 11:59 AM
Ticket #: 4951711
Jun 02 08:05 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[958] CHC -103
( ACTION )

60.00 / 58.25

58.25
WIN
WIN
06/02/2022 11:59 AM
Ticket #: 4951712
Jun 02 08:40 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[960] COL +131
( ACTION )

60.00 / 78.60

-60.00
LOSE
LOSE
06/02/2022 11:59 AM
Ticket #: 4951713
Jun 02 10:10 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[962] TOTAL u9-120 (NYM vrs LAD)
( ACTION / ACTION )

60.00 / 50.00

50.00
WIN
WIN
06/02/2022 11:59 AM
Ticket #: 4952168
Jun 03 02:20 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET (FP)
[901] TOTAL o8½-103 (STL vrs CHC)
( ACTION / ACTION )

0.00 / 58.25

58.25
WIN
WIN
06/03/2022 12:12 PM
Ticket #: 4952258
Jun 03 07:10 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[922] TB -1½+102
( ACTION / ACTION )

60.00 / 61.20

61.20
WIN
WIN
06/03/2022 03:01 PM
Ticket #: 4952259
Jun 03 08:10 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[926] KC +117
( ACTION )

60.00 / 70.20

-60.00
LOSE
LOSE
06/03/2022 03:01 PM
Ticket #: 4952257
Jun 03 10:10 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[914] LAD -1½+130
( ACTION / ACTION )

60.00 / 78.00

78.00
WIN
WIN
06/03/2022 03:01 PM
Ticket #: 4952652
Jun 04 03:07 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[969] TOTAL o9+106 (MIN vrs TOR)
( ACTION / ACTION )

60.00 / 63.60

63.60
WIN
WIN
06/04/2022 12:41 PM
Ticket #: 4952649
Jun 04 04:05 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[954] PIT -123
( ACTION )

60.00 / 48.78

48.78
WIN
WIN
06/04/2022 12:41 PM
Ticket #: 4952650
Jun 04 04:10 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[957] SD +117
( ACTION )

60.00 / 70.20

70.20
WIN
WIN
06/04/2022 12:41 PM
Ticket #: 4952651
Jun 04 09:10 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[963] ATL -1½-120
( ACTION / ACTION )

60.00 / 50.00

50.00
WIN
WIN
06/04/2022 12:41 PM

All year long.