it's very complicated process vegas uses then offshores copy what they put out
1st off the team they use to crunch numbers is simply that numbers is all they do
But the most important person at a sportsbook is the head oddsmaker. This is the person who creates the odds on any given game or event that people can bet on, also known as “setting the line.”
The head (or lead) oddsmaker has unmatched betting knowledge. Oddsmakers are math experts with decades of experience who know betting like the back of their hand.
n order to come up with the odds on a given game or matchup, oddsmakers use a complex set of mathematical models, formulas and computer algorithms. They also come up with power rankings based on key statistical categories, including strength of schedule and margin of victory.
This allows oddsmakers to compare teams against one another and determine which team should be favored and by how much.
Oddsmakers also lean on a team of trusted consultants who give valued input on what they think the odds should be based on their vast experience in the industry.
After consulting their computer models and power rankings, oddsmakers will come up with a rough estimate of what the odds should be.
Then they adjust the line based on a number of important criteria. This includes home-field advantage (typically three points in the NFL), injuries, weather, unique scheduling/travel spots along with specific head-to-head matchups.
If a great passing offense is going against a depleted defensive secondary, that is factored into the odds. If a team playing on the second night of a back-to-back and didn’t get in until 3 a.m., that is also taken into account.
What happens after a line is set ?
Once the odds are finally set, they are released to the public in the form of the “opening line” or “opener.” Bettors can then pick which side they want to bet.
At first, the limits are low. This means that bettors can only wager a relatively small amount of money on the game. Oddsmakers use this early period as a “feeling out” stage. They will allow sharp bettors to bet the game at low amounts in order to shape the line and make it as accurate as possible. Once they feel comfortable with the number they’ve set, the limits are raised.
Then the market takes over. Oddsmakers will adjust the odds leading up to game time based on the action each team is attracting.
and last of all THEY KNOW YOU they have decades of results that they refer too they know thier are packer backers galore there fore your paying a prive 1.5 to 3.5 points more no matter where they play
every top team has higher spreads Patriots Chiefs Cowboys Buccaneers the defending champs
it's complicated series using power ratings , home field , HC ratings strength of schedule who they beat last time like big deal they bet up on a team thats 1 -8 but now they face a team thats way better 5-4
and sharps do not move lines we do millions of us betting $25 - $1000
the sharps get 1st crack at the early spreads then head lines man adjust after that to release to public
What oddsmakers DO NOT look into or read is Human emotion that where YOU can bust a book
evry nfl team has revenge set vs div rival
biggest upset ever came from Cardinals @ Seahawks every body and thier G ma took seattle - 9.5
but Cardinals wanted to pay back from last year when seattle ran up the score to 58 -0 in 2012
cardinals played like champions that game week 16 won s/u 17-10
so im like smiling i took the spread but next game cardinals home chalked -4 vs 49ers i said ooo boy here it comes
Kaboom s/u losers 23-20
get the human emotion side right throw out the spread your winning 100%
every team has flops after beating top rival like eagles after Cowboys win
Browns after steelers win
raiders after chiefs win
any team after defeating defending champs
saints after beating bucs 100% losers i think right now 0-8 s/u and ats
it amazes me what vegas does like a team lost badly last game 40- 21 as a fav -9 ok they come home and say lets make em smaller chalk vs rival -3 kaboom lost again
i'll post the vegas screw jobs in new thread just past 5 years is plenty
get ready gents sept 7th we start thurs night Rams - 4 vs bills
1st off the team they use to crunch numbers is simply that numbers is all they do
But the most important person at a sportsbook is the head oddsmaker. This is the person who creates the odds on any given game or event that people can bet on, also known as “setting the line.”
The head (or lead) oddsmaker has unmatched betting knowledge. Oddsmakers are math experts with decades of experience who know betting like the back of their hand.
n order to come up with the odds on a given game or matchup, oddsmakers use a complex set of mathematical models, formulas and computer algorithms. They also come up with power rankings based on key statistical categories, including strength of schedule and margin of victory.
This allows oddsmakers to compare teams against one another and determine which team should be favored and by how much.
Oddsmakers also lean on a team of trusted consultants who give valued input on what they think the odds should be based on their vast experience in the industry.
After consulting their computer models and power rankings, oddsmakers will come up with a rough estimate of what the odds should be.
Then they adjust the line based on a number of important criteria. This includes home-field advantage (typically three points in the NFL), injuries, weather, unique scheduling/travel spots along with specific head-to-head matchups.
If a great passing offense is going against a depleted defensive secondary, that is factored into the odds. If a team playing on the second night of a back-to-back and didn’t get in until 3 a.m., that is also taken into account.
What happens after a line is set ?
Once the odds are finally set, they are released to the public in the form of the “opening line” or “opener.” Bettors can then pick which side they want to bet.
At first, the limits are low. This means that bettors can only wager a relatively small amount of money on the game. Oddsmakers use this early period as a “feeling out” stage. They will allow sharp bettors to bet the game at low amounts in order to shape the line and make it as accurate as possible. Once they feel comfortable with the number they’ve set, the limits are raised.
Then the market takes over. Oddsmakers will adjust the odds leading up to game time based on the action each team is attracting.
and last of all THEY KNOW YOU they have decades of results that they refer too they know thier are packer backers galore there fore your paying a prive 1.5 to 3.5 points more no matter where they play
every top team has higher spreads Patriots Chiefs Cowboys Buccaneers the defending champs
it's complicated series using power ratings , home field , HC ratings strength of schedule who they beat last time like big deal they bet up on a team thats 1 -8 but now they face a team thats way better 5-4
and sharps do not move lines we do millions of us betting $25 - $1000
the sharps get 1st crack at the early spreads then head lines man adjust after that to release to public
What oddsmakers DO NOT look into or read is Human emotion that where YOU can bust a book
evry nfl team has revenge set vs div rival
biggest upset ever came from Cardinals @ Seahawks every body and thier G ma took seattle - 9.5
but Cardinals wanted to pay back from last year when seattle ran up the score to 58 -0 in 2012
cardinals played like champions that game week 16 won s/u 17-10
so im like smiling i took the spread but next game cardinals home chalked -4 vs 49ers i said ooo boy here it comes
Kaboom s/u losers 23-20
get the human emotion side right throw out the spread your winning 100%
every team has flops after beating top rival like eagles after Cowboys win
Browns after steelers win
raiders after chiefs win
any team after defeating defending champs
saints after beating bucs 100% losers i think right now 0-8 s/u and ats
it amazes me what vegas does like a team lost badly last game 40- 21 as a fav -9 ok they come home and say lets make em smaller chalk vs rival -3 kaboom lost again
i'll post the vegas screw jobs in new thread just past 5 years is plenty
get ready gents sept 7th we start thurs night Rams - 4 vs bills
