NFL week 01- Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Going to try this as a weekly thread.

Good news is that I don't think we should be worried about too much traffic on this site. Now a smaller community. Handful of guys that might have opinions.

Just looking for a few things:
*State your play. "Fading A, backing B".
*Give a reason to FADE the anti-team.
*Give a reason why you think it may play out differently than most might think.

Thanks!

[pologq]

giants +6.5. i know that was an early line and i think it went to +5.5 now. i was initially surprised the line was not higher than +6.5 and then it came down a whole point off a key number.

i feel the titans offense, specifically passing, will need time to gel with new wide receivers. i think the giants are out to prove themselves, specificially saquon and jones, under a new regime. i see giants keeping this closer than people think.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Salud, Polo. Good post and GL on the play.

Sorry for me sniping post (b4). I've been acting like a dick lately. Too much shit on my mind.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Polo, here's my play. 457 New Eng +3.5 (1.93).

I can't believe how unpopular the Patriots have become. My angle is that the defense is good but not sexy.

They held 9 of 17 Reg Sea opponents to 17 or fewer last year. That's pretty good in modern NFL.

As for returning players, top 3 tacklers and top sack-man return. They do lose top CB Jackson, who had 8 INTs.

Feel like the defense goes under the radar. Think this team is too good to be catching these pts. GL.

[edawg]

Take the Browns Sunday. Everyone and their mother keeps saying it is a Baker revenge game but the feelings go both ways so in reality you have a mediocre QB with motivation playing against a whole team with motivation.

[MiDNiTe]

Surprised you like the Pat's Chucky, think no more excuses for Tua now, they got him a shit load of weapons and Pats have been looking like shit last few games last season to now and now they give the play calling duties to a knob

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Take the Browns Sunday. Everyone and their mother keeps saying it is a Baker revenge game but the feelings go both ways so in reality you have a mediocre QB with motivation playing against a whole team with motivation.

Good one, edawg. My only asterisk might be: *the better #s (+2.5) are gone.

But you're right. Carolina is a very public play. Feeling is that the Panthers have edge at QB, but Browns would appear to have superior roster overall.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Surprised you like the Pat's Chucky, think no more excuses for Tua now, they got him a shit load of weapons and Pats have been looking like shit last few games last season to now and now they give the play calling duties to a knob

Midnite, you hit on a few of my points:

1) Miami ratcheted up b/c of NAME-players they added. I'm not a Fantasy FB fan. Appreciate more of the blue-collar nameless guys, and I think the Pats have an edge there.
2) The media has been slamming the Pat coaching situation, as you say. LOL at the media-hacks. The media is 10x bigger than it needs to be, now every clown has an opinion.
3) You mentioned the way last season played out. They DID make the playoffs...and YES, Allen played the perfect game and rolled them. Pats did split two late-season games w/ Buff...and were ONLY a 4-pt dog at Buff. Same Buff team that was -2.5 at Rams AND looked like early SB favorites.

I'm very pragmatic. I don't think things change that quickly. This # blew right thru 3, Pats for me, we'll find out soon enuf.

[MiDNiTe]

Midnite, you hit on a few of my points:

1) Miami ratcheted up b/c of NAME-players they added. I'm not a Fantasy FB fan. Appreciate more of the blue-collar nameless guys, and I think the Pats have an edge there.
2) The media has been slamming the Pat coaching situation, as you say. LOL at the media-hacks. The media is 10x bigger than it needs to be, now every clown has an opinion.
3) You mentioned the way last season played out. They DID make the playoffs...and YES, Allen played the perfect game and rolled them. Pats did split two late-season games w/ Buff...and were ONLY a 4-pt dog at Buff. Same Buff team that was -2.5 at Rams AND looked like early SB favorites.

I'm very pragmatic. I don't think things change that quickly. This # blew right thru 3, Pats for me, we'll find out soon enuf.

Fair enough, yeah somehow I remembered the Pats were awful end of last season but you're right I remember them splitting with the Buffalo in that windy game where bill coached perfectly, maybe a little bit of bias from me as bill is a legendary coach but sometimes I think guy is so arrogant like I feel like guy thought he could beat Philadelphia in Superbowl easily, did he keep butler out of Superbowl over something small and trivial? As 1 pass play defended could of changed the whole game and they coached that Superbowl game poorly, anyways gl man will be definitely watching this game out of the early games as interested how Patricia playcalls

[jeffchitown]

Detroit Lions +5 last year I feel lions kept every game close it was magical to see how many games lions lost in the last minutes usually by a field goal. Lions I thought looked pretty good and I think they will look even better this year. Their offense is maturing and defense is getting better. I’m backing that Lions will once again keep this close till the end and should win but wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose last minute again lol

[jjgold]

I think Dallas a contrarian play right?

Jets??

[jackpot269]

Viks +2

Mainly Aaron has a young bunch at wide out and with Adams gone he will struggle today. It seems to always take him a while to get used to new guys and trust them

Both defense have a lot of talent with the Vikens D line being deep and good!
GB is really good at CB and Safety but I was looking at Cousins numbers from last year and he was a lot better than I thought 33/7 TD vs INT
I think Rogers will get frustrated with the new guys at wide out and that deep Vikings Defense can force a couple of TO's.

If this was a few games into season and Rogers had more time with wideouts I may see it differently


I really like the Ravens also, reason they are playing the Jets!! THATS ENOUGH Lamar should have a great day

[Snowball]

Take the Browns Sunday. Everyone and their mother keeps saying it is a Baker revenge game but the feelings go both ways so in reality you have a mediocre QB with motivation playing against a whole team with motivation.

Why would the Browns seek revenge against Baker when it was the Browns who canned him for Watson?

[shadymcgrady]

Might take a stab with the bears today at home in soldier field opening week.

The whole world is on the niners and they are easily better all around but kittle is out and the o line looked suspect. His massive contributions aren't just limited to his playmaking ability but his blocking as well.

Maybe a tentative Trey Lance let's the nerves get to him with Jimmy g still there holding the clipboard in week 1

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Fair enough, yeah somehow I remembered the Pats were awful end of last season but you're right I remember them splitting with the Buffalo in that windy game where bill coached perfectly, maybe a little bit of bias from me as bill is a legendary coach but sometimes I think guy is so arrogant like I feel like guy thought he could beat Philadelphia in Superbowl easily, did he keep butler out of Superbowl over something small and trivial? As 1 pass play defended could of changed the whole game and they coached that Superbowl game poorly, anyways gl man will be definitely watching this game out of the early games as interested how Patricia playcalls

At 1st I read that as "from ME .....as a legendary coach." I was gonna ask if you're Richie Kotite?

Very good writeup. Was Bill going to win all those rings w/ Drew Bledsoe (if they never had acquired Brady)? I'm of the opinion that a coach should be evaluated on a RELATIVE basis. IE, what does the HC add? Not just a matter of having good players.

I think you're right on Butler. Was it worth holding him out over a mostly petty issue?

In fairness, go back and watch the Ram/Patriot Super Bowl. The scouting report he had on the Rams must have been spot-on. Because he made the Rams look like school-boys.

Appreciate the replies. GL, and have a great day.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Detroit Lions +5 last year I feel lions kept every game close it was magical to see how many games lions lost in the last minutes usually by a field goal. Lions I thought looked pretty good and I think they will look even better this year. Their offense is maturing and defense is getting better. I’m backing that Lions will once again keep this close till the end and should win but wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose last minute again lol

Good one, Jeff. And the Lion ability to lose close games (like the LONG FG by Tucker), LOL. They really are the masters of the bitter loss.

I actually watch one of the Youtube posters. Lion fan w/ handle of GRIDIRON BLITZ. Good guy who hosts several live streams.

[Jayvegas420]

The Giants could lose by 7.
they should lose by 14.
I think they lose by 19.
GL

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Viks +2

Mainly Aaron has a young bunch at wide out and with Adams gone he will struggle today. It seems to always take him a while to get used to new guys and trust them

Both defense have a lot of talent with the Vikens D line being deep and good!
GB is really good at CB and Safety but I was looking at Cousins numbers from last year and he was a lot better than I thought 33/7 TD vs INT
I think Rogers will get frustrated with the new guys at wide out and that deep Vikings Defense can force a couple of TO's.

If this was a few games into season and Rogers had more time with wideouts I may see it differently


I really like the Ravens also, reason they are playing the Jets!! THATS ENOUGH Lamar should have a great day

Yes, Jack. Cousins is the master of immaculate stats. I don't feel too bad for him...as he's won the lottery 3x over with the all the contracts he's signed!

Packer fan here. Having viewed Rodgers' career, the performance is obvious. I now put some of the playoff failures on HIM. And I say that in an ironic way. I think Rodgers' success is the reason they never became a PHYSICAL team.

GL on the Vikes. Have to think it will be a close game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks to all for the posts. Healthy discussion, GL on your plays.

[jackpot269]

Yes, Jack. Cousins is the master of immaculate stats. I don't feel too bad for him...as he's won the lottery 3x over with the all the contracts he's signed!

Packer fan here. Having viewed Rodgers' career, the performance is obvious. I now put some of the playoff failures on HIM. And I say that in an ironic way. I think Rodgers' success is the reason they never became a PHYSICAL team.

GL on the Vikes. Have to think it will be a close game.

I like Rogers as a football player one of the best ever, and it is the regular season which he owns!!

Nobody makes it look easier when he moves over a couple of steps and throws the ball on target 99.9999999% of the time but he has a problem with players that he hasn't played with much, and he said the other day that the new guys were not running the right routes and when they did they were dropping a lot of balls! Thats not the quote but it was something to the effect!

Have a great one pal

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I like Rogers as a football player one of the best ever, and it is the regular season which he owns!!

Nobody makes it look easier when he moves over a couple of steps and throws the ball on target 99.9999999% of the time but he has a problem with players that he hasn't played with much, and he said the other day that the new guys were not running the right routes and when they did they were dropping a lot of balls! Thats not the quote but it was something to the effect!

Have a great one pal

Yes, I'm of the mindset. I have a split view on Rodgers:

1) As for mastery of the position, Yes. The stats at a super-challenging position, great. But why the string of Home playoff losses?

2) IMHO, he's a big part of it. There's a championship edge that's not there. When I think back to the great Packers, it WON'T be him.

I'm biased but I think my favorite All-time Packer is Paul Hornung. Holy shit, the things he did to win a game. And it was selfless, there was a grit about him.

Of a more modern age, I'll gladly take Clay Matthews III. That guy gave it his all ever time out. And he played in situations where he was clearly incapacitated and < 100%.

Another recent GB player who I liked more than Rodgers was Jordy Nelson. People told him that he wasn't good enuf, but he proved em wrong. They lost a windy game at Buffalo, where Jordy dropped a key pass in the open. The next day Jordy apologized to the teammates for not having his head in the right place. As a guy making more $$ than almost everyone on the team, that's way more than he had to do.

[MiDNiTe]

At 1st I read that as "from ME .....as a legendary coach." I was gonna ask if you're Richie Kotite?

Very good writeup. Was Bill going to win all those rings w/ Drew Bledsoe (if they never had acquired Brady)? I'm of the opinion that a coach should be evaluated on a RELATIVE basis. IE, what does the HC add? Not just a matter of having good players.

I think you're right on Butler. Was it worth holding him out over a mostly petty issue?

In fairness, go back and watch the Ram/Patriot Super Bowl. The scouting report he had on the Rams must have been spot-on. Because he made the Rams look like school-boys.

Appreciate the replies. GL, and have a great day.

Yeah there's quite a few games where bill has coached perfectly and his football brain just stands out like the Superbowl game you mentioned and that buffalo one where they only threw the ball once or twice whole game and made some stand out blocks in the run game.

It's easy to sit at home and make some criticism/observations but definitely agree with you about Rodgers, he's lucky he's got the Superbowl ring already because this guy takes care of the ball so well and 99% of the time he throws the ball where only his receivers can have a play on the ball then some games in the playoffs he tries to play hero ball and not what won him the regular season MVP, anyways enjoy your post and gl on your bets

[jackpot269]

Yes, I'm of the mindset. I have a split view on Rodgers:

1) As for mastery of the position, Yes. The stats at a super-challenging position, great. But why the string of Home playoff losses?

2) IMHO, he's a big part of it. There's a championship edge that's not there. When I think back to the great Packers, it WON'T be him.

I'm biased but I think my favorite All-time Packer is Paul Hornung. Holy shit, the things he did to win a game. And it was selfless, there was a grit about him.

Of a more modern age, I'll gladly take Clay Matthews III. That guy gave it his all ever time out. And he played in situations where he was clearly incapacitated and < 100%.

Another recent GB player who I liked more than Rodgers was Jordy Nelson. People told him that he wasn't good enuf, but he proved em wrong. They lost a windy game at Buffalo, where Jordy dropped a key pass in the open. The next day Jordy apologized to the teammates for not having his head in the right place. As a guy making more $$ than almost everyone on the team, that's way more than he had to do.

That Mathews family wow what a bunch of players!!

Starr
Don Hutson
Nelson (Got to love a guy who beats the odds)
The minister of Defense, he was great and a local guy!! Even if he played at Tennessee

[pologq]

liking the patriots to surprise. that hook on the 3 is tempting.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

That Mathews family wow what a bunch of players!!

Starr
Don Hutson
Nelson (Got to love a guy who beats the odds)
The minister of Defense, he was great and a local guy!! Even if he played at Tennessee

Salud, Jack. Imagine attending the Matthews Family Thanksgiving.

They have the squat rack set up out on the lawn. You can get in three sets...b4 you sit down to eat your bird and watch the game.

[edawg]

Why would the Browns seek revenge against Baker when it was the Browns who canned him for Watson?

He was not liked in that locker room for a myriad of reasons.

[BeatTheJerk]

Quality thread & discussion made here by CTG. More threads like these need to be created rather than the shit JJGold comes up with, “real talk”.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Liking pitt+7...Too many points for a good team, i think too many people are focusing on the fact that trubisky is the QB but he has a really good D and team to back him. Also think Trubisky is actually an upgrade to the Big Ben from the past few seasons.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Liking pitt+7...Too many points for a good team, i think too many people are focusing on the fact that trubisky is the QB but he has a really good D and team to back him. Also think Trubisky is actually an upgrade to the Big Ben from the past few seasons.

Salud, Jake. Yes, I have some Steeler action, too.

Just think the Bengals are over-extending after out-playing their seed in 2022 playoffs.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Quality thread & discussion made here by CTG. More threads like these need to be created rather than the shit JJGold comes up with, “real talk”.

Trying, Jerky. Trying to bank some Dead Presidents.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Trying, Jerky. Trying to bank some Dead Presidents.

[TheLock]

Jets +5.5 for me on the contrarian play

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, New Eng looks pretty bad.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Steeler radio linK:

https://www.steelers.com/audio/steelers-nation-radio/

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Just one game, but I was way off on New Eng. They look inept.

Back to idea on this thread. I know everybody wrote about how inept the Pat offense looked in Pre-season. I view that as fodder, I really put no stock in Pre-season.

Man, was I wrong on this one. Just one game. Rooting for everyone else.