looking at zona or usc to win pac12 w o Clark for usc
thougtts ???
thougtts ???
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Lol I mean UCLAComment -
Love my Wildcats but this is UCLA's spot manComment -
Ducks!Comment -
Ducks I'm likingComment -
Let's take it game by game and worry about the line and number instead of trying to pick a winner, for a moment.
Let's go old school blitz style...
Colorado vs. Wash
My stacking percentages forecast has Washington winning this game outright by 3 points. The non-predictive public gauge shows Colorado winning and suggest a -3.5 line on Colorado. We've seen Colorado -4 drop to as low as 2, towards the forecast. There is still, in my opinion, some EV left on the Washington side.
Cal vs. Wash St.
My stacking percentages forecast has Washington State winning by about 24 points. The non-predicitve public gauge only has Wash St. winning 66-57 with an actual line of about -9.5 in the cells. This line is forced down because of the public gauge and the type of action it predicts. That "two touchdown" 14 point line is just as much mathematical as it is psychological. This line could be too low. In fact, we've seen a shift to 13.5 and early I beleive public tickets were seeking the big dog points.
There are a lot of ways to cap games and different ways can actually bring about EV on either side. There isn't just one way to skin the cat. This line is also representing some ways that favor Cal, and some that favor Washington St.
This game is looking like a pass unless we can add a layer of the flow of money for the tourney. The line should remain relatively tight and not budge until more information (like the result of the first game) hits the market. This game could potentially be a game time betting decision as the efficiency is a little funny to work with and contrarian adjustments could be made. Because these adjustments are possible, you get the confusion about multiple ways to skin the cat and it muddy's the waters...it forces bettors to gamble.
Stanford vs Utah
The stacking percentages forecast shows Stanford winning by 3 points,72-69. The non predictive public gauge has Utah winning 67-66. These numbers do help to guide an explanation for the current line, a pickem. They've done a good job with this line as far as trying to get the bettors to gamble and I think we should wait for contrarian adjustments and an analysis of moneyflow before going further on the game.
Oregon St. vs. Arizona St.
The stacking percentages forecast has Zona st winning by 5 points, with nearly all versions falling at Zona St. winning about 71-66. The non-predictive public gauge has Zona St winning 69-62.
The market tried originate close to those numbers with BOL opening as low as Zona St. -8.5 but we're looking at 11 points now. I happen to think, for reasons outside the numbers, that Zona St could be dangerous at times so it's tough to tell what to make of this final game. Following the money through the games will reveal something, win or lose, and as this is the swing game we will have 3 games worth of info to use to adjust forecast.
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Because of the value of knowing where the money has fallen on days like this it is widely expected (by me, lol, that is...I broadly expect) that we see on OT game in one of thes 4 games. Maybe more than one OT game. The most likely candidate for OT will be Stanford vs Utah as ambiguity in that game will help to keep bettors gambling in the final, swing game.
The best pick without seeing any game or moneyflow might be Washington here in the first game, even on the moneyline at about +120. Look for the market to try to short that moneyline and take advantage of the downward momentum of the of the spread.
For pro bettors, this first game could be a parlay killer or, even worse, a Colorado win by 1 or 2 points, still a parlay killer.
Either way, we start there, with a bet on Washington +120 and/or the +2.5.
Comment -
Obviously Washington +4 is better, but I was pretty late with this post and it looks like that game has just started. My intent is to check back in and discuss the markets as info comes in.
I can see Colorado is up 5-0 right now over Wash and in my opinion that's a good sign for Wash as I exepect an early misleading score. Remember, I never like to lead early, lol.
If the margin grows and momentum in the LIVE markets swing to Colorado then I think there is a LIVE opportunity for Washington. Numbers matter though.Comment -
Wash +5.5 (+102) is not a bad look LIVE but because it's everchanging I'm not going to try to throw down some instant LIVE play that changes so quickly. Getting plus money on the +5.5, in my opinion, is as good deal for a few more minutes before circumstances like time change things.Comment -
This game sitting at 16-10, a 6 point lead, as that essential time comes off. I still like +5.5 but at plus money. Clearly it's at a point where they will hover between 5.5 and 6.5, keeping just that little vig on it to eat away at our investments.
Plus money is better, but there's a small range there of course. But seeing -118 and -115 on that 5.5 reminds us how easy is it is to add a few cents and muddy those markets. A common LIVE trading practice.Comment -
KVB do you ever consider handicapping a game from a match-up standpoint ?Comment -
Yeah, I think that's built into the stacking percentages forecast for the most part. The public gauge is more of a public sentiment type forecast.
Sometimes theres a player change or injury that just fukks everything up, lol.
UCLA losing the Pac 12 defensive player of the year for the Pac12 tourney is a good example.
Tough to tell how that impacts the team and tough to make matchups when they've had him all season. Maybe it matters he's out, but maybe for this confernece tourney it doesn't matter.
A lot of maybes but there's now doubt he was an asset with steals and even with contrubuting points.
Capping the matchups will help you get a grip on why the number is where it opened or moved to where it is. There are formula we can use to get close, come invented by past pros. I'll see what I can post about that.Comment -
Colorado up 10 (28-18) points but let's face it, a 10 point lead in march doesn't mean much, especially with teams that do matchup up fairly close here.
A good price on the LIVE 7.5 not a bad look.Comment -
Been good to see you around Jerky. Glad you've been popping in and out of late.
8 point Colorado halftime lead pretty much squashes any chance of a good +7.5 LIVE price...lol.
I still think this is ripe for a Washington comeback, or to at least win the second half, that Washington -1 2nd half should be getting some "sharp" action.Comment -
Fukkin Pinny made it Wash -1/2 and that's a little bothersome that, knowing Wash -1 2nd half will get hit, they opened with just .5 points.
They are now at 1, Circa showing 1.5 and e'ryone juicing them.Comment -
Leggooo Washington!!!!
Came out firing. Better not be yanking our chain.
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As this game closes up, or appears to, money will flow.
If it appears to be Washington in this game, following what I said sharp action on the 2nd half line, then expect the market to NOT like Washington State.
So as this first game winds down and if it stays close, or especially if Wash takes a lead, we may see money come in on Cal. Remember, this first game was a 4 point line before moving down.
This is usually how these markets behave. It's also one of the reasons we get manipulation and what I call "misleading" early results.
Comment -
Always nice to talk shop with you, although I’m doing a lot of listening & not talking usually. The experience & time you put in your craft has always been respected & appreciated from me.Been good to see you around Jerky. Glad you've been popping in and out of late.
8 point Colorado halftime lead pretty much squashes any chance of a good +7.5 LIVE price...lol.
I still think this is ripe for a Washington comeback, or to at least win the second half, that Washington -1 2nd half should be getting some "sharp" action.Comment -
1 point game!!!!
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One thing to notice from my stacking percentages forecast above is that in the first 3 games the forecast predicts the same team to win and cover the spread.
But when we get the swing game, it predicts Oregon St to cover the spread, but not win the game against Zona St.Comment -
Washington has closed the gap and even taken the lead, they are now trading leads.As this game closes up, or appears to, money will flow.
If it appears to be Washington in this game, following what I said sharp action on the 2nd half line, then expect the market to NOT like Washington State.
So as this first game winds down and if it stays close, or especially if Wash takes a lead, we may see money come in on Cal. Remember, this first game was a 4 point line before moving down.
This is usually how these markets behave. It's also one of the reasons we get manipulation and what I call "misleading" early results.
We did see Wash State's -13.5 line drop all the way to -12 in a few spots in Vegas, like Circa and Southpoint, there has also been some buying back and it's sitting at about -13. Southpoint still holding at 12.5.
Being able to predict line movement isn't everything, but can be very important.
For pre game, before money flows, we look at the stacking forecasts, and we ask ourselves how many times does the market move TOWARD the forecast. We want that to be a good percentage of the time.Comment -
BOL now at Wash St -12.
The market moves for many reasons, it's not just all pre game action. There is money flowing the moment the first game started. Think of it like the stock market, it opened green for Colorado bettors, but it's turned for them. It can always turn back.
Again, we are dealing in probabilites.
As this first game goes back and forth, so does the next game's spread, from 12 to 13 and 13 to 12, and back again. It's a lot to take in, but it is the reality of the markets.
Comment -
Watch the Bruins come home. What if it's USC?
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Last edited by ChuckyTheGoat; 03-08-23, 05:00 PM.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Johnny, how awesome was a young Alcindor?
Think about it.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
As this first game played close late and Wash took a lead the market on the next game pressed down to 12 and 12.5 virtually everywhere, even with some juice and the 13 are juiced to the dog.
But Colorado stole the 4 point spread and the market was fooled.
This why I was bringing these points about money movement. This is what I wanted to show real time.
Now with 15 minutes left to reset the court and play the next game, will late money come in on Wash St? It already has for the -12 point lines, will it push the market back to -13? If so, understand that groups may be buying back to get it there.
This is the essence of how markets like this work real time. It's a cat and mouse game and some groups can really push a line to manipulated categories. This is represents one of my first examples of how the games and markets are interrelated and results of BETS are not as indepenent as many think.
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Yeah, trying to show in real time with live examples can move quick for sure. I have worked with and developed these concepts of a very long time and sometimes what is an obvious daily thing in market trading to me might not be so obvious to those whod don't analyze the markets. Sometimes we can get ahead of ourselves trying to show the concepts.Comment -
The stacking percentages forecast failed in the first game on both the ML and the Spread. Washington was predicted, the forecast, to win outright but in the end Colorado handled them and covered the closing -2 and -2.5 lines as well as the opening -4 point line. My suggestion of Wash +5.5 at a plus price in the LIVE markets also failed as Colorado ended up winning by 6 down the stretch.
Moving on to the rest of the day, the stacking percentages forecast was correct on the moneylines and spread of the rest of the card, including Arizona St. to win but not cover their spread against Oregon St.
Indeed, for the opening round of the Pac 12 Tournament, using my stacking percentages forecast, the first game of the day between Colorado and Washington was the parlay killer.
The rest of the games, when considered with just a .5 point discrepency from my forecast's to the market's margins of victory were successful.
In terms of my stacking percentages forecast, today was a good day.
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Bear down CATS!Comment -
Anyone think Oregon can knock off ucla tonight??Comment
