Two most overrated stats in baseball

**Allure** · 08-05-23, 06:17 PM

What stats do you look at then?

I don't follow baseball anymore but when capping I never looked at saves but whether the bullpen sucks or not.

Nowadays I'm just blindly fading certain teams, which works better than me trying to cap baseball.

**stevenash** · 08-05-23, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by Allure

What stats do you look at then?

I don't follow baseball anymore but when capping I never looked at saves but whether the bullpen sucks or not.

Nowadays I'm just blindly fading certain teams, which works better than me trying to cap baseball.

For hitters, OBA
For pitchers, WH/IP. and HR/9 ratio

**jackpot269** · 08-05-23, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Most, not all, but most of the 'counting number' stats are overrated.

RBI

Plain and simple you need men on base to drive in a run.
The greatest power in the world can't drive in a run (unless he hits a solo dinger) without help from his friends on base in front of him.

Conversely, a Punch and Judy .240 hitter can drive in two with a dying quail bloop single with runners on second and third.

Right place at the right time type of stat.

Save

A mediocre closer on a 102 win stacked team has more opportunities to earn a save than an elite closer on an 80 win team does.

The requirements to earn a save are ludicrous.

A closer can get lit up in the ninth and still be credited with a save.
Case in point, let's say Kimbrel enters the game in the ninth with a 4-1 lead.
The rules say if a closer enters the game with a three or less run lead qualifies for a save. Kimbrel walks two, gives up an RBI double, walks the next batter, gets a lucky force out for one out, gives up a RBI single to make the game 4-3, than wiggles out of the ninth for a 4-3 win.

Oh sure he gets the save, but was he really efficient in doing so?

Not disagreeing at all, but if you have a better hit % with runners on base, you will most likely have more RBI's.
If two batters are both hitting .250 but one is at .290 with runners on base that could make a difference.

After I read this, it sounded a lot better before I typed it.

Thats not what you were saying and wasn't the point I was trying to make, so never mind carry on.

**JIBBBY** · 08-05-23, 08:59 PM

Walk off home runs.

Bases loaded walk off grand slams in extra innings I think is the most overrated.

The relief pitcher is coming with heat down the middle because he can't throw balls or junk in that situation. Batter can just swing and lift it right out of the park with ease if dialed in. He knows what is coming especially if he is up in the count.

**texhooper** · 08-05-23, 11:34 PM

Jibbbbe that’s not a stat brother.

I feel like you were put on this earth to drive me insane.

**blankoblanco** · 08-05-23, 11:41 PM

I never really thought about it before, but you make a good point about RBIs, nash. It's more of an incidental stat. It usually comes with being a good hitter, but you can easily have stretches where you're hitting great but getting no RBIs because your teammates before you in the lineup suck at getting on base

**texhooper** · 08-05-23, 11:50 PM

What’s funny is Mark Grace, a lead off hitter mind you (and I think a hall of famer?), once said the two most important stats in baseball are runs scored and runs batted in.

Both stats are mostly reliant on others. You can literally bat a thousand and never score a run if you’re hitting singles and no one’s getting you home. According to Mark Grace you would be a useless piece of shit in this scenario

**stevenash** · 08-05-23, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by jackpot269

Not disagreeing at all, but if you have a better hit % with runners on base, you will most likely have more RBI's.
If two batters are both hitting .250 but one is at .290 with runners on base that could make a difference.

After I read this, it sounded a lot better before I typed it.

Thats not what you were saying and wasn't the point I was trying to make, so never mind carry on.

All good brother.
I appreciate the fact you opened my thread and looked at it.

Appreciate you Jackie!

**stevenash** · 08-06-23, 12:09 AM

In 1929, the greatest (IMO) first baseman in the history of the game, Lou Gehrig, batting 4th in the cleanup spot for the New York Yankees, smacked 32 doubles, 10 triples, and 35 homeruns, and 'only' drove in 125 RBI's.

How is that even possible you wonder?

That's because Babe Ruth, batting third in the order, right before Gehrig hit 46 HR's and drove in 154 RBI's.

Ruth cleaned up the bases before Gehrig had a chance to hit, even with Gehrig's insane power numbers, all he could muster up was 125 RBI's

**Da Manster!** · 08-06-23, 01:59 AM

^^^...that's very similar to the 80's Atlanta Braves teams...Bob Horner was hitting cleanup in the lineup and was a decent power hitter but had little RBI's to show for his efforts...why?...because Dale Murphy was hitting 3rd!...and I know HOF closer Goose Gossage certainly agrees with your take concerning saves...He's done several rants where he is bashing today's players, in particular closers, saying what BS the very little they have to do to earn a save. He was talking about them being overrated, overpaid, and underperforming. Back in his day, guys like him and Lee Smith used to pitch 2 - 3 innings to get a save!

Secondly, your post reminded me of the aged old MLB stat debate dad and I had a very long time ago...which historical MLB record feat was more impressive?...DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak or Ted Williams batting .406? I always used to argue that Williams .406 was the better of the two because it was through the duration of an entire season (more consistency) whereas a 56 hitting game streak a batter can conceivably go 1 for 4 every day during that streak and only be a .250 hitter. the closest anyone has come to Williams (since 1941) was Tony Gwynn hitting .394...but if you go back and look at the longest MLB hitting streaks, only 5 others have even made into the 40's!...absolutely mind boggling when you think about it.

**JIBBBY** · 08-06-23, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by texhooper

Jibbbbe that’s not a stat brother.

I feel like you were put on this earth to drive me insane.

It's a stat and can be traced. Ok hit by pitches then is very overrated by any one pitcher. It's not like they are trying to do that! Lol..

**stevenash** · 08-06-23, 05:50 AM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

Secondly, your post reminded me of the aged old MLB stat debate dad and I had a very long time ago...which historical MLB record feat was more impressive?...DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak or Ted Williams batting .406? I always used to argue that Williams .406 was the better of the two because it was through the duration of an entire season (more consistency) whereas a 56 hitting game streak a batter can conceivably go 1 for 4 every day during that streak and only be a .250 hitter. the closest anyone has come to Williams (since 1941) was Tony Gwynn hitting .394...but if you go back and look at the longest MLB hitting streaks, only 5 others have even made into the 40's!...absolutely mind boggling when you think about it.

"Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is?
It's 25 hits, 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points.
There's six months in a season, that's about 25 weeks.
That means if you one extra flare a week- just one-a gorp-you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes, you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week, you're in Yankee Stadium"

-Crash Davis
'Bull Durham'

**bhoor** · 08-06-23, 09:56 AM

The stats can only be relevant after putting automated calls instead of umpires who influence the game beyond anyone's imagination. But they won't do it. If umpire calls are automated, you would see 130-win-team and 135-loss-team. And umpires make this league competitive by giving favourable calls.

**Mr KLC** · 08-06-23, 06:30 PM

Pitcher Wins

**jackpot269** · 08-06-23, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by bhoor

The stats can only be relevant after putting automated calls instead of umpires who influence the game beyond anyone's imagination. But they won't do it. If umpire calls are automated, you would see 130-win-team and 135-loss-team. And umpires make this league competitive by giving favourable calls.

Interesting take on home plate. I have never given this much thought, but since reading your post I would like to see some exhibition games with AI umpire. I don't think I would ever want to take to human element out of balls and strikes, but it would be ok for a couple of games that didn't count.

**krk1030** · 08-06-23, 09:13 PM

I agree the save Stat is stupid. Half the time the big outs are in the 7th or 8th inning anyway.

If these guys were robots and not humans with egos nobody would have a specific guy for the 9th inning.

**JIBBBY** · 08-07-23, 11:50 AM

Pitchers home vs road stats for W/L. When you are on and rolling that doesn't matter. It's all about what have you done for me lately in regards to those stats IMO.

**k13** · 08-07-23, 03:49 PM

Most overrated stat is WAR and always will be.
Along with Ohtani and Trout.

**stevenash** · 08-07-23, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by k13

Most overrated stat is WAR and always will be.
Along with Ohtani and Trout.

WAR is the best metric MLB uses for a side by side comparison with other players that play the same position.

Even though it's classified as a statistic, it's really not.

It's senseless for me to debate this with you, not because I'm right and you're wrong, it's because we are on two totally sides of the argument.

I'm not going to change your mind, nor you aren't going to change mine.

All good nevertheless.

**k13** · 08-07-23, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

WAR is the best metric MLB uses for a side by side comparison with other players that play the same position.

Even though it's classified as a statistic, it's really not.

It's senseless for me to debate this with you, not because I'm right and you're wrong, it's because we are on two totally sides of the argument.

I'm not going to change your mind, nor you aren't going to change mine.

All good nevertheless.

No its not. It overvalues certain positions.
Kim has a higher WAR than Ohtani with a .200 + difference in OPS.

Was a great way for Trout to steal MVP trophies for being an average player on crappy teams.
But now they'll use real statistics to pick an MVP.

Anyway, everyone sucks in baseball now and the sport will die soon so who cares.

**JIBBBY** · 08-07-23, 08:14 PM

Batters and pitchers that chew tobacco and those that don't.

**TheMoneyShot** · 08-07-23, 11:13 PM

Interesting thread. You could do it 2 ways. Overrated stats in baseball as a "fan's perspective". Or... overrated stats in baseball from a gambler's perspective. When I clicked on this thread... I was thinking wagering purposes automatically.

**slewfan** · 08-08-23, 09:49 AM

The more information the books give gamblers, the more difficult handicapping becomes.

There are days when some handicapping stats work, and then the day's they don't.

European Roulette puts up the last 16 numbers on the board for all to see. Don't think for a second this helps the players. In baseball, you can pick out stats you think will help you win a bet. If it works today, does not mean it will work tomorrow. You win, you're a genius in your own mind. Some guys get hot and other's follow and tell them how great they are.

Under this premise, no stat is good or bad. They are just numbers thrown at us to guess with. Add fuel to our disease.

**pilebuck13** · 08-08-23, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

For hitters, OBA
For pitchers, WH/IP. and HR/9 ratio

Believe ERA is pretty terrible as well. I always liked XFIP and HR/9 myself

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 08-09-23, 08:39 AM

Nasher, call me a square but I miss the game winning RBI stat.

**jackpot269** · 08-09-23, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

Interesting thread. You could do it 2 ways. Overrated stats in baseball as a "fan's perspective". Or... overrated stats in baseball from a gambler's perspective. When I clicked on this thread... I was thinking wagering purposes automatically.

I was thinking the same thing.

**Tanko** · 08-09-23, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

For hitters, OBA
For pitchers, WH/IP. and HR/9 ratio

I agree with you on these but would add a couple of extra stats to each piece.

> For checking a teams batting: OBA and WRC+
> For pitching: WHIP and K/BB.

I used to be a big xFIP fan but believe WHIP provides a better measure.

**jackpot269** · 08-09-23, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by slewfan

The more information the books give gamblers, the more difficult handicapping becomes.

There are days when some handicapping stats work, and then the day's they don't.

European Roulette puts up the last 16 numbers on the board for all to see. Don't think for a second this helps the players. In baseball, you can pick out stats you think will help you win a bet. If it works today, does not mean it will work tomorrow. You win, you're a genius in your own mind. Some guys get hot and other's follow and tell them how great they are.

Under this premise, no stat is good or bad. They are just numbers thrown at us to guess with. Add fuel to our disease.

You are talking about something that a 55-60% win rate is considered successful by most. If a stat existed in any sport that helped you win every day or almost every day that would be a lot higher %. I don't know of any sports betters that only look at one stat when capping for bets.

**stevenash** · 08-11-23, 10:55 AM

I'm really big on OBA and WH/IP simply because you can't score a run if you can't get on base.
And that's one statement we all pretty much agree on.

The WH/IP metric is walks and hits allowed by a pitcher divided by innings pitched.
The more baserunners allowed, the better chance your offense has of scoring, and vice versa.

OBA simply put is the on base percentage
The more baserunners, the better chance of scoring runs, right?.

Look at m all time favorite team, the 2015 KC Royals.
They had no prolific power hitters in that line up, top to bottom.
But what they did was bled you to death double, double, single...
Next thing you know the Royals just hung a five spot on you in an inning.

Enter one of the greatest three headed bullpen monsters of all time.
You were lucky to get two baserunners from the seventh inning on with Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland.

Second in the league in hits, next to last in HR's though.
You don't need HR's to win a ring, get on base, keep the line moving, and put the pressure on the opposing pitchers and defense.
Pitching? Sixth best in the league in allowing runs scored.

Just like Billy Beane over in Oakland drew it up.
Get on base, score runs, and prevent runs from scoring.

Keep the line moving...

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-11-23, 11:08 AM

Nashy, Off Topic: *Hi School Wrestling.

I know the Dapper Dan is a big event. PA All Stars (mostly WESTERN PA?) vs USA All Stars.
...As good as the PA wrestlers are, I always thought it was ambitious to match them against the USA stars. If the TOP national recruits accept, they have to be favored over the standard PA state champ.

The matchup that I'd pay to see is the: PA All Stars vs the NJ All Stars.
...I know PA is a more populous state. PA is generally regarded as the top wrestling state.

But man, the Jersey wrestlers are tough. I really think PA vs NJ should be an event.
...Nowadays, who knows which guys would accept the bid? Jersey had some excellent wrestlers this past year.

I really think the matchup would be pretty close, assuming the top guys wrestle. And I'd pay to see that match.

**str** · 08-11-23, 11:11 AM

This ones for you Nasher.

Pure baseball.

"Get em on, get em over, get em in."

Jim Gilliam – the Dodgers first utility player | Think Blue LA

https://thinkbluela.com/2016/04/jim-gilliam-the-dodgers-first-utility-player/

**stevenash** · 08-11-23, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Nashy, Off Topic: *Hi School Wrestling.

And I'd pay to see that match.

*off topic*
I was a scholastic wrestler myself, 158 lbs and 170 lbs.
I was pretty good, not great by any means, but held my won.

And yes, I'd pay to see that too.

**Covering the #** · 08-11-23, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by texhooper

What’s funny is Mark Grace, a lead off hitter mind you (and I think a hall of famer?), once said the two most important stats in baseball are runs scored and runs batted in.

Both stats are mostly reliant on others. You can literally bat a thousand and never score a run if you’re hitting singles and no one’s getting you home. According to Mark Grace you would be a useless piece of shit in this scenario

Grace was never a leadoff hitter. Perhaps you have him mixed up with someone else?

**Covering the #** · 08-11-23, 10:30 PM

I'm going to say pitch count and hitter is due as over rated