2023/2024 Soccer Season & More

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-26-23, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Thank you

Never liked havertz. This experiment they are trying with him to convert him into a different position isn't going to work.

Arsenal PK shout. Pen to Ars: *Saka scores, 1-1.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-26-23, 10:31 AM

73'

2 - 1

Nketiah E.

**lakerboy** · 08-26-23, 10:32 AM

In other news Hoffenheim came back and won 3-2. They were paying+10000 live.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-26-23, 11:07 AM

Ars/Ful Draw, 2-2. Late Fulham goal came with 10-men.

This guy hates Havertz.

**franz555** · 08-26-23, 12:29 PM

England : Brighton vs West Ham : Halftime ( 0 - 1 )

Over 2.5 @ 1.65 ( 3 units )
Brighton @ 2.95 ( 1 unit )

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-26-23, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by franz555

England : Brighton vs West Ham : Halftime ( 0 - 1 )

Over 2.5 @ 1.65 ( 3 units )
Brighton @ 2.95 ( 1 unit )

The over gets there.

Franz, I hope you're enjoying the start of the new season.

I referenced above (and in the past) how entertaining the AFTV (Arsenal Fan TV) channel is. In particular, it's a riot when their team is struggling. The videos should be on fire tonite, after conceding the late goal vs 10-man Fulham.

**franz555** · 08-26-23, 02:03 PM

France : PSG vs Lens : 3pm

PSG - 1 @ 1.95 ( 3 units )

**franz555** · 08-26-23, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

The over gets there.

Franz, I hope you're enjoying the start of the new season.

I referenced above (and in the past) how entertaining the AFTV (Arsenal Fan TV) channel is. In particular, it's a riot when their team is struggling. The videos should be on fire tonite, after conceding the late goal vs 10-man Fulham.

Poor Arsenal. Again

Lol

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-26-23, 02:42 PM

This guy (Lee Judges) has to be one of the best pundits. Un-intentional humor at its finest:

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-26-23, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

In other news Hoffenheim came back and won 3-2. They were paying+10000 live.

Lak, I listened to the game recap. AFTER Fulham went down to 10-men:
87': FUL score, 2-2.
90': Ars GK Ramsdale made a great save. Your Fulham bet almost pipped it late.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-26-23, 04:09 PM

Laker/Franz:

*I'll present one handicapping theory for you in the EPL.

...Take a long look at the Promoted Teams (or Relegation-threatened teams) in Aug/Sept.

Why would I say this? Those are the teams that have the budget to feel good about their STARTING 11.

What they DON'T have is a lot of depth. The eleven starters are normally guys with EPL experience. The bench is often filled with youth players who are just now bumping up to EPL level.

Anyway, this is a trend I've seen in the database. It's something I've seen in the past.

Promoted teams are excited to be in the big-league, they can play well for the first four weeks. But they struggle mightily if they pick up injuries and deal with the fixture list.

**lakerboy** · 08-26-23, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Laker/Franz:

*I'll present one handicapping theory for you in the EPL.

...Take a long look at the Promoted Teams (or Relegation-threatened teams) in Aug/Sept.

Why would I say this? Those are the teams that have the budget to feel good about their STARTING 11.

What they DON'T have is a lot of depth. The eleven starters are normally guys with EPL experience. The bench is often filled with youth players who are just now bumping up to EPL level.

Anyway, this is a trend I've seen in the database. It's something I've seen in the past.

Promoted teams are excited to be in the big-league, they can play well for the first four weeks. But they struggle mightily if they pick up injuries and deal with the fixture list.

Yes this is a good angle. Thanks.

**franz555** · 08-26-23, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Laker/Franz:

*I'll present one handicapping theory for you in the EPL.

...Take a long look at the Promoted Teams (or Relegation-threatened teams) in Aug/Sept.

Why would I say this? Those are the teams that have the budget to feel good about their STARTING 11.

What they DON'T have is a lot of depth. The eleven starters are normally guys with EPL experience. The bench is often filled with youth players who are just now bumping up to EPL level.

Anyway, this is a trend I've seen in the database. It's something I've seen in the past.

Promoted teams are excited to be in the big-league, they can play well for the first four weeks. But they struggle mightily if they pick up injuries and deal with the fixture list.

A lot of logic to what you say Chucky. Luton are a serious " Pub Team " that found a way to get to the EPL. The stadium walkways go through residential backyards. They are dead last in transfer value @ $72 mill. The big 3 have $1 billion + at their disposal. Thats a large gap to fill and injuries are amplified due to a lack of depth, as you said.

**franz555** · 08-26-23, 06:23 PM

MLS : NY Red Bulls vs Inter Miami : 7:30pm

NY @ 2.07 ( 3 units )
Over 2.5 @ 1.76 ( 2 units )

**franz555** · 08-27-23, 07:41 AM

England : Sheffield Utd vs Manchester City : 9am est

Man City -1.5 @ 1.68 ( 5 units )

France : Montpellier vs Reims : 9am est

Over 2.5 @ 1.73 ( 3 units )

**franz555** · 08-27-23, 10:05 AM

Spain : Valencia vs Osasuna : 1:30pm

Valencia @ 1.83 ( 2 units )
Over 2 @ 1.92 ( 3 units )

MLB : LA Dodgers @ Bosox : 1:35pm

LA Dodgers @ 1.80 ( 2 units )

**franz555** · 08-27-23, 10:13 AM

Germany: Bayern vs Augsburg : 11:30am

Bayern -1 1st half @ 1.61 ( 3 units )
Over 1.5 1st half @ 1.62 ( 3 units )

**franz555** · 08-27-23, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

This guy (Lee Judges) has to be one of the best pundits. Un-intentional humor at its finest:

Sorry ,

Just saw this post

Brilliant ! He seems like a genuine fan .......RUBBISH ! ABSOLUTE RUBBISH LOL

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-27-23, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by franz555

A lot of logic to what you say Chucky. Luton are a serious " Pub Team " that found a way to get to the EPL. The stadium walkways go through residential backyards. They are dead last in transfer value @ $72 mill. The big 3 have $1 billion + at their disposal. Thats a large gap to fill and injuries are amplified due to a lack of depth, as you said.

Salud, franz. Just something I've observed over time:

*In Aug/Sep, you can see some big upsets. The promoted teams are STOKEd to be in the big league. Their fans are mental.

The big teams are rounding into shape. They have a TON of big fixtures in the different competitions. It's just another day for them.

Take Laker's Everton +1000 play. Why not? It's early in the year, there's not much urgency for Arsenal.

In fact, the Arsenal pundits were only talking about their upcoming tilt vs ManUtd. And yes, the Arsenal fan videos are a riot. Lee Judges is a great listen.

**lakerboy** · 08-27-23, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Salud, franz. Just something I've observed over time:

*In Aug/Sep, you can see some big upsets. The promoted teams are STOKEd to be in the big league. Their fans are mental.

The big teams are rounding into shape. They have a TON of big fixtures in the different competitions. It's just another day for them.

Take Laker's Everton +1000 play. Why not? It's early in the year, there's not much urgency for Arsenal.

In fact, the Arsenal pundits were only talking about their upcoming tilt vs ManUtd. And yes, the Arsenal fan videos are a riot. Lee Judges is a great listen.

The amount of upsets on a weekend of soccer in Europe is astounding. Some handicap action with touches on the ml will bring in good results.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-27-23, 01:17 PM

Maybe we're on to something, Lak.

Like I said, I think you got it in good on the Fulham play. More than your money's worth on that one.

I'll admit it's been a while since I studied these soccer leagues closely. If you're saying the Big Dogs do well in most leagues in Aug/Sept, definitely something to look at.

One perspective I'd give: *The TOP European players (guys like Beckham/Lampard) would play > 60 games over 12 months, after you add up League/Cup/ChampLg/Intl.

They get a BRIEF respite in the summer. They're just getting up to speed in August. Fair to say they're not on TOP of their game.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-27-23, 01:21 PM

Osasuna 5.25 currently leads Valencia, 1-0, in 2h.

I can say for a fact that ROAD DOGS in La Liga have potential. Spain is a pretty easy travel league. The HFA was pretty low for La Liga when I studied it.

**franz555** · 08-27-23, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by k13

You're just flipping coins.
Unders in La Liga are hitting 70-80%.

Squares like unders. I don't watch the games so don't care how little scoring there is.

Look at today. You don't even have to sweat.

Books will adjust but right now giving money away.

Spain : Valencia vs Osasuna : 1:30pm

Valencia @ 1.83 ( 2 units ) Winner

That makes 5 out of 6 over's in Spain this weekend. That represents 83.3% on the overs , or for your unders 16.7 %.

" FREE MONEY " indeed. Still awaiting a pre game POSTED Under wager on your part

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-27-23, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by franz555

Spain : Valencia vs Osasuna : 1:30pm

Valencia @ 1.83 ( 2 units ) Winner

That makes 5 out of 6 over's in Spain this weekend. That represents 83.3% on the overs , or for your unders 16.7 %.

" FREE MONEY " indeed. Still awaiting a pre game POSTED Under wager on your part

Keep it going, Franz. You have good information.

I always viewed the SPA La Liga as a free-flowing league. Goals go in with regularity in that league. At least that's my impression.

One of the toughest leagues for me to cap was the French league. I say that b/c the Avg Goals per Game is sometimes very low. Leads to a lot of 1-1 matches, so three way bets on the -0.5 can be hard to land.

Handicapping is very much a challenge. Per Franz's comments, you research and post selections pre-match. After that, you live with the results.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-27-23, 02:48 PM

One final comment re: the EPL matches:

*One trend that a bettor has to look at. The BIG EPL teams (ManU/ManCity/Arsenal/Liverpool) have huge fan bases.

This leads to them being overbet sometimes. PUNTING is huge in England, these fans love having a little action on their team.

If you pick your spot, I think one could do well going AGAINST the big clubs. Too much $$ being bet ON those big EPL clubs.

**franz555** · 08-27-23, 02:57 PM

Spain : A.Bilbao vs Real Betis : Live 26th min ( 0 - 2 )

Over 3.5 @ 1.55 ( 3 units )

**Thefix13** · 08-27-23, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by k13

You're just flipping coins.
Unders in La Liga are hitting 70-80%.
Books will adjust but right now giving money away.

Comments aged well.

**franz555** · 08-27-23, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by Thefix13

Comments aged well.

You made them on Friday. So so long ago

Oh , and another Over hit in Spain while i type this . I prefer to deal with FACTS over random coin flips. STILL waiting on a pre game Post from you.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-27-23, 04:14 PM

A few comments for the posters here:

1) Laker, are there a few leagues that you view as Live on the early-season Dogs? I'd be happy to report back if I find any detail.
...At one point in time, I knew these leagues quite well.
...One problem with betting the Euro leagues. Certain leagues can be VERY top-heavy. SCOT/Germ/Port/Neth come to mind. In those leagues, 95% of the champions have come from about three teams in the L40 years.
...EPL is regarded as the most competitive league, for good reason. They find talent from all corners of the globe, and the opposition is no slouch.
...IMHO, the English CHAMPIONSHIP (2nd-tier) is one of the most wide-open leagues around. The talent gap is small top-to-bottom. But the oddsmaker knows this, the Fav/Dog prices aren't usually bloated to the moon.

2) Franz, yes. Those Arsenal Fan videos are a riot. It's like you buy a ticket to the game...and become the De Facto General Manager.

**lakerboy** · 08-27-23, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

A few comments for the posters here:

1) Laker, are there a few leagues that you view as Live on the early-season Dogs? I'd be happy to report back if I find any detail.
...At one point in time, I knew these leagues quite well.
...One problem with betting the Euro leagues. Certain leagues can be VERY top-heavy. SCOT/Germ/Port/Neth come to mind. In those leagues, 95% of the champions have come from about three teams in the L40 years.
...EPL is regarded as the most competitive league, for good reason. They find talent from all corners of the globe, and the opposition is no slouch.
...IMHO, the English CHAMPIONSHIP (2nd-tier) is one of the most wide-open leagues around. The talent gap is small top-to-bottom. But the oddsmaker knows this, the Fav/Dog prices aren't usually bloated to the moon.

2) Franz, yes. Those Arsenal Fan videos are a riot. It's like you buy a ticket to the game...and become the De Facto General Manager.

I focus on 4-5 leagues.

Italy serie A
Genoa won in Lazio today.
Bologna covered the cap
Frosinone beat Atalanta yesterday
Verona beat Roma yesterday

Those were significant dogs all in the 4-1 and above range.

Switzerland
Winterthur was+335 today and won easy

Austria bund
Mostly a top heavy league but dogs come in all the time on the+230 range

Klagenfurt won today. (+240)
Tirol covered+1+115
Altach was a significant dog yesterday and won .

Netherlands gets goals but I don't wager much on totals.

EPL too me has great dog wins all the time. How often do one of the BIG boys lose on any given weekend( one at least doesn't win).

The key here is the same as spread betting leagues like the NBA and NFL. You have to weight towards the spread.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-27-23, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I focus on 4-5 leagues.

Italy serie A
Genoa won in Lazio today.
Bologna covered the cap
Frosinone beat Atalanta yesterday
Verona beat Roma yesterday

Those were significant dogs all in the 4-1 and above range.

Switzerland
Winterthur was+335 today and won easy

Austria bund
Mostly a top heavy league but dogs come in all the time on the+230 range

Klagenfurt won today. (+240)
Tirol covered+1+115
Altach was a significant dog yesterday and won .

Netherlands gets goals but I don't wager much on totals.

EPL too me has great dog wins all the time. How often do one of the BIG boys lose on any given weekend( one at least doesn't win).

The key here is the same as spread betting leagues like the NBA and NFL. You have to weight towards the spread.

Laker, your post is very good. My comments:

*ITA: I hated betting this league. I always felt like it was corrupt and that you could buy the ref.

*SUI: I tried to study this league but couldn't figure it out. I will say that Young Boys Bern might be the funniest team name in Europe.

*NETH: It's not a very big country. I can't imagine the HFA is very big with short travel.

*ENG: You're right. You can find nice dogs that will put in good fight. Love the teams that aren't big-name but put in a good shift.

I do like your idea of targeting a certain price range and capping the Dog Price. From reading thru the old betting databases, I can say that the massively-priced Favorites are that big for a reason. Those are mismatch games, playing the -0.5 at Odds of 13.00 and above is a fool's game. If you like the Dog in that matchup, take a hard look at the handicap line.

**franz555** · 08-28-23, 08:43 AM

Overall : 24 - 25 ( - 13.49 units )
Soccer : 22 - 25 ( - 16.85 units )
MLB : 2 - 0 ( + 3.36 units )

Italy : Cagliari vs Inter Milan : 2:45pm est

Inter Milan -1 @ 1.72 ( 3 units )

**franz555** · 08-28-23, 08:53 AM

MLB : Minnesota vs Cleveland : 7:40pm

Over 8 @ 1.75 ( 3 units )

**franz555** · 08-28-23, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I focus on 4-5 leagues.

Italy serie A
Genoa won in Lazio today.
Bologna covered the cap
Frosinone beat Atalanta yesterday
Verona beat Roma yesterday

Those were significant dogs all in the 4-1 and above range.

Switzerland
Winterthur was+335 today and won easy

Austria bund
Mostly a top heavy league but dogs come in all the time on the+230 range

Klagenfurt won today. (+240)
Tirol covered+1+115
Altach was a significant dog yesterday and won .

Netherlands gets goals but I don't wager much on totals.

EPL too me has great dog wins all the time. How often do one of the BIG boys lose on any given weekend( one at least doesn't win).

The key here is the same as spread betting leagues like the NBA and NFL. You have to weight towards the spread.

I look at all 1st Division games on the slate , 90% across Europe. Usually i have my note pad with a list of possible dogs , times and prices included. I tend to throw a few in 2 or 3 team parlays with a play i feel strongly about ( i.e. Inter Milan -1 @ 1.72 today.

Short list so far :

12:30 Salernitana @ 2.70 ( Italy )
1pm Norrkoping @ 5.50 ( Sweden )
2pm Giresunspor / Bandirmaspor Tie @ 4.10 ( Turkey )
3:30pm Rayo Vallecano @ 4.00 ( Spain )
3:15 Rio Ave +.5 @ 2.70 ( Portugal )
7pm Cobresal @ 3.50 ( Chile )

I havent pulled the trigger on any as yet , but leaning to Salernitana based on preseason results and Udinese injuries ( mainly the back line. Similar thoughts on Rayo Vallecano @ home against A. Madrid , who have a few out today as well.

**franz555** · 08-28-23, 10:03 AM

Romania : Hermannstadt vs U Cluj : 11:30am

Over 2 @ 1.88 ( 2 units )