Teasers are the best way to make money in NFL

**Optional** · 10-13-23, 04:56 PM

I was hoping for a bit more detail.

But Raiders question and answer made complete sense to me.

Maybe get into Asiagambler's advice now?

More than one way to skin a cat usually. Might find gems in both.

Originally posted by asiagambler

Teasers are just math, plain and simple. It's about finding value in specific numbers (key). If you're going to handicap, then just bet the spread, there's really no need to mess with a teaser

The best way to make money betting teasers is to first completely ignore this thread filled with nonsense and misinformation. Then learn SDQL (not hard), find a database (there are public ones) and run the numbers yourself

Everything is fair game, including totals. And since it seems no one else mentioned it, totals obviously should influence the teaser numbers you look for- points tend to be more valuable with a lower total and less valuable with a higher one- but there's exceptions to this too if they are extremely high or extremely low. And that's all part of it

A good starting point is to look at everything 2015 and beyond for NFL. That's when the extra point moved back and ever since then, there's been slight changes in the distribution of what number the games tend to land on. Other small rule changes, mostly to do with overtime, have all had their effects as well but the XP change was the big one

Where does the SDQL research come in to it for you?

Help cap if the line is off?

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 04:57 PM

The ONLY wrinkle is that there could be a partial loss (push)

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

and you wouldn't even bet 3,4,5 teamers when optimizing. I'll check back later for more comedy.

No one said anyone would. Those bets aren't profitable. You don't even understand the basic math behind it

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by Optional

I was hoping for a bit more detail.

But Raiders question and answer made complete sense to me.

Maybe get into Asiagambler's advice now?

More than one way to skin a cat usually. Might find gems in both.

Where does the SDQL research come in to it for you?

Help cap if the line is off?

SDQL is just a query language. You use it to see how many games landed on certain numbers and if they meet the threshold of the odds you need

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

What's the optimal amount to bet on an even money bet that has a win probability of .725^2, 2.8 odds for .725^3, etc.

That's how any non-retard person reads your own question. Since you are literally retarded, you can't even understand your own question

Are you seriously this stupid? It's a teaser thread. Those are obvious teaser payout odds.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

No one said anyone would. Those bets aren't profitable. You don't even understand the basic math behind it

Teasers at those odds are very profitable. Give me +180 and +300 and that's a huge teaser year.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

SDQL is just a query language. You use it to see how many games landed on certain numbers and if they meet the threshold of the odds you need

If you want to add something of value. What percentage lands on 1 at a line of 7.5. And 1 and 2 at 8.5. I'd actually would like to see what you have.

We can turn this into something productive.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Are you seriously this stupid? It's a teaser thread. Those are obvious teaser payout odds.

How does that change anything ?

I mean you really can't blame me for thinking you're asking retarded questions since you're a, you know, retard

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Teasers at those odds are very profitable. Give me +180 and +300 and that's a huge teaser year.

Your very own incredibly stupid question says each leg has a .725 probability of hitting

**blankoblanco** · 10-13-23, 05:05 PM

Like everything in gambling, teasers work until they don't. I'm pretty wary of teasers in the NFL, because 7 point swings happen on a single play. Hell, you can basically have a 14 point swing on one play when a would-be TD becomes a turnover into TD for the other team. Turnovers make the game so volatile, and no other major sport really works that way. It's easy to convince yourself that a team can't possibly lose by x amount of points in the NFL but they absolutely always can.

**Optional** · 10-13-23, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

SDQL is just a query language. You use it to see how many games landed on certain numbers and if they meet the threshold of the odds you need

I understand what Sports Data Query Language is and how we can use it.

I'm genuinely just asking how you use it when choosing teasers as an example.

I don't play a lot of teasers and are no more sophisticated that looking to cross 3 and 7 and not 0 when I do.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Your very own incredibly stupid question says each leg has a .725 probability of hitting

You need to hit 70.95% to be profitable at +180 three teamer. You have absolutely no idea how to tease or optimize. Be useful, what do you have for the percentage of times it'll land on 1 and 2 for lines of 7.5 and 8.5?

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by Optional

I understand what Sports Data Query Language is and how we can use it.

I'm genuinely just asking how you use it when choosing teasers as an example.

I don't play a lot of teasers and are no more sophisticated that looking to cross 3 and 7 and not 0 when I do.

That's up to you. You look at all aspects of the game that you think are relevant, total, home/away, etc. You look at how often those games land on certain numbers. How valuable are the numbers 8 and 9 for example when the total is 43.5 or something along those lines

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

That's up to you. You look at all aspects of the game that you think are relevant, total, home/away, etc. You look at how often those games land on certain numbers. How valuable are the numbers 8 and 9 for example when the total is 43.5 or something along those lines

Numbers don't change much with totals unless going from 37 to 51. Seriously, I'd like to know what you have for the 1 and 2 since mine may be different.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

You need to hit 70.95% to be profitable at +180 three teamer. You have absolutely no idea how to tease or optimize. Be useful, what do you have for the percentage of times it'll land on 1 and 2 for lines of 7.5 and 8.5?

Yes fine I don't have a calculator in front of me. I did it in my head. That doesn't change anything

You don't even understand what the Kelly formula is

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Numbers don't change much with totals unless going from 37 to 51. Seriously, I'd like to know what you have for the 1 and 2 since mine may be different.

You don't have numbers

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

You don't even understand what the Kelly formula is

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

You don't have numbers

yes, but we all use different data. Curious what others have.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

yes, but we all use different data. Curious what others have.

You don't have data. Who are you kidding? Seriously?

You post 50 year old information about crossing 3 and 7 as if everyone on the planet doesn't already know this

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by Optional

I understand what Sports Data Query Language is and how we can use it.

I'm genuinely just asking how you use it when choosing teasers as an example.

I don't play a lot of teasers and are no more sophisticated that looking to cross 3 and 7 and not 0 when I do.

You don't even have to do strictly spreads either. You can look at side and total teasers and if there's correlation at certain numbers. I mean do you understand what I'm saying?

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

You don't have data. Who are you kidding? Seriously?

You post 50 year old information about crossing 3 and 7 as if everyone on the planet doesn't already know this

That's just general info. Teasing down home teams is most profitable. You throw out a word like Kelly and think you're brilliant. Produce one thing of value. What percentage lands on 1 and 2. Maybe I overrated you and you can't even do that.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

You don't even have to do strictly spreads either. You can look at side and total teasers and if there's correlation at certain numbers. I mean do you understand what I'm saying?

Never tease totals.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

That's just general info. Teasing down home teams is most profitable. You throw out a word like Kelly and think you're brilliant. Produce one thing that's production. What percentage lands on 1 and 2. Maybe I overrated you and you can't even do that.

You're funny. You threw out the word Kelly in your retarded question

You don't even know the Kelly formula

Your answer to the question is using a solver LMAO

Why would anyone think you're asking this ???

You don't know anything except parroting outdated and basic information

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Never tease totals.

And this is how I know you don't know anything

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:22 PM

AG- Since everything has to explained to you like a child, with spreads of 7.5 - 8.5, what's the percentage of times it lands on 1 and 2.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

And this is how I know you don't know anything

Show me a subset where teasing totals is profitable.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

That's just general info. Teasing down home teams is most profitable. You throw out a word like Kelly and think you're brilliant. Produce one thing of value. What percentage lands on 1 and 2. Maybe I overrated you and you can't even do that.

And you don't know why teasing down home teams is profitable. If I asked you how many home teams covered a Wong teaser line as a favourite in the last 5 years, could you do it ?

No

These things can change. If you don't have the data the last year, last 5 years, last 10 years and changes in that data, you're just operating on outdated information. Some things last for years sure, some things change just as quickly

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

AG- Since everything has to explained to you like a child, with spreads of 7.5 - 8.5, what's the percentage of times it lands on 1 and 2.

Are you retarded ?

Seriously ?

I'm the one that brought up SDQL in this thread. I'm about 90% sure you've never even heard of it

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

And you don't know why teasing down home teams is profitable. If I asked you how many home teams covered a Wong teaser line as a favourite in the last 5 years, could you do it ?

No

These things can change. If you don't have the data the last year, last 5 years, last 10 years and changes in that data, you're just operating on outdated information. Some things last for years sure, some things change just as quickly

You're not to bright if you think it's complicated to do a simple query. No shit things can change. They will change more when teams start going for 2 more to win instead of tie at the end of games.

I'm asking you what you use for 1 and 2 and you can't even answer. It's not a trick question.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

AG- Since everything has to explained to you like a child, with spreads of 7.5 - 8.5, what's the percentage of times it lands on 1 and 2.

That fact that you have to ask me repeatedly because you want to "compare numbers" just tells me you read in some article some time ago and this is what you go with

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

You're not to bright if you think it's complicated to do a simple query. No shit things can change. They will change more when teams start going for 2 more to win instead of tie at the end of games.

I'm asking you what you use for 1 and 2 and you can't even answer.

season>=2015 and H
season>=2015 and line in [-7.5,-8,-8.5] and points - o

oints in [1,2]

There you go dipshit. Tell me what you get

I want to compare with my numbers

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

That fact that you have to ask me repeatedly because you want to "compare numbers" just tells me you read in some article some time ago and this is what you go with

Seriously, you aren't that bright. I've been looking at those numbers for decades. I was trying to get one productive thing out of you and failed.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

You're not to bright if you think it's complicated to do a simple query. No shit things can change. They will change more when teams start going for 2 more to win instead of tie at the end of games.

I'm asking you what you use for 1 and 2 and you can't even answer. It's not a trick question.

And see this is why you're always behind. It's already changed dummy

It changed when teams embraced analytics and starting going for 2 in much more situations than before. It will change even more too as it becomes correct in more unintuitive situations to go for 2

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Seriously, you aren't that bright. I've been looking at those numbers for decades. I was trying to get one productive thing out of you and failed.

season>=2015 and H
season>=2015 and line in [-7.5,-8,-8.5]
season>=2015 and line in [-7.5,-8,-8.5] and points - ooints in [1,2]

There you go dipshit. Tell me what you get

I want to compare with my numbers

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Seriously, you aren't that bright. I've been looking at those numbers for decades. I was trying to get one productive thing out of you and failed.

You don't realize that the fact that you keep asking this tells me you can't run "simple queries" lol