Teasers are the best way to make money in NFL

**asiagambler** · 10-11-23, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

I've been doing it since 2013 when the price of bitcoin was in the single digits. I spend most of my time in the bitcoin forum but came up here while it's slow in crypto now.

**raiders72001** · 10-11-23, 04:45 PM

Hit the bitcoin forum in 2024. Nothing much to do now but wait. Looks like the bitcoin forum was started in 2015 when BTC was around $235. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...m.html?slf=327

edited, just found the poll for the bitcoin forum https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...sub-forum.html

**DJK** · 10-11-23, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Must be why you're broke

LOL

**DJK** · 10-12-23, 12:05 AM

Orion, is San Francisco 49ers in any of your teasers this weekend?

**Enkhbat** · 10-12-23, 09:56 AM

San Francisco, Indianapolis, Seattle and LA Chargers are pretty good candidates this week.

**johnnyvegas13** · 10-12-23, 10:01 AM

Niners gonna b a huge public play

line will get to 8 or 9 watch

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-12-23, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Niners gonna b a huge public play

line will get to 8 or 9 watch

This is a showcase game for Garrett. This guy is gonna feast.

Two weeks from now, you're going to hear Schwartz's name for NFL vacancies. The Brown defense is ready to eat.

**asiagambler** · 10-12-23, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Niners gonna b a huge public play

line will get to 8 or 9 watch

johnny just tell us who YOU like. That is what is gonna be the huge public play

**DJK** · 10-12-23, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

johnny just tell us who YOU like. That is what is gonna be the huge public play

He likes the Browns. No doubt about it.

**DJK** · 10-12-23, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Niners gonna b a huge public play

line will get to 8 or 9 watch

Tell us something that's not obvious.

Who cares anyway.

The 49ers will still kill the Browns if Watson doesn't play.

**asiagambler** · 10-12-23, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by DJK

He likes the Browns. No doubt about it.

Well regardless of who he likes, you don't EVER want to be on the same side as him

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 03:45 AM

This week was close to perfect for 10 and 13 pt teasers at DK. Needed to get a 12.5 out of Mia or Buf for 10 pt. Or for the 13 pt needed a couple higher to go with Mia and Buf.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 04:09 AM

Wash, Hou, Rams and Philly all still in the right range of 6 pt teasers but I haven't pulled the trigger on any of those yet.

**Orion1178** · 10-13-23, 06:07 AM

Originally posted by DJK

Orion, is San Francisco 49ers in any of your teasers this weekend?

I got san Fran at 4.5 early in the week

**Orion1178** · 10-13-23, 06:08 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Wash, Hou, Rams and Philly all still in the right range of 6 pt teasers but I haven't pulled the trigger on any of those yet.

Best teaser play is chicago +8.5. Minnesota just does not blow teams out, especially without Justin Jefferson and fields has looked very good last 2 weeks

I'd be shocked if that's not a close game and I think there's a good chance chicago wins outright

I got chicago and LAC as the safest teaser. 2 home dogs who could both win

**k13** · 10-13-23, 01:22 PM

80% of the time the spread does not matter so just pick a winner which you can't.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by k13

80% of the time the spread does not matter so just pick a winner which you can't.

Teasers are just math, plain and simple. It's about finding value in specific numbers (key). If you're going to handicap, then just bet the spread, there's really no need to mess with a teaser

The best way to make money betting teasers is to first completely ignore this thread filled with nonsense and misinformation. Then learn SDQL (not hard), find a database (there are public ones) and run the numbers yourself

Everything is fair game, including totals. And since it seems no one else mentioned it, totals obviously should influence the teaser numbers you look for- points tend to be more valuable with a lower total and less valuable with a higher one- but there's exceptions to this too if they are extremely high or extremely low. And that's all part of it

A good starting point is to look at everything 2015 and beyond for NFL. That's when the extra point moved back and ever since then, there's been slight changes in the distribution of what number the games tend to land on. Other small rule changes, mostly to do with overtime, have all had their effects as well but the XP change was the big one

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Teasers are just math, plain and simple. It's about finding value in specific numbers (key). If you're going to handicap, then just bet the spread, there's really no need to mess with a teaser

The best way to make money betting teasers is to first completely ignore this thread filled with nonsense and misinformation. Then learn SDQL (not hard), find a database (there are public ones) and run the numbers yourself

Everything is fair game, including totals. And since it seems no one else mentioned it, totals obviously should influence the teaser numbers you look for- points tend to be more valuable with a lower total and less valuable with a higher one- but there's exceptions to this too if they are extremely high or extremely low. And that's all part of it

A good starting point is to look at everything 2015 and beyond for NFL. That's when the extra point moved back and ever since then, there's been slight changes in the distribution of what number the games tend to land on. Other small rule changes, mostly to do with overtime, have all had their effects as well but the XP change was the big one

You're just trying to look smart. You're making it way too difficult to tease down. All you need to know is the money line and the value of the one and two.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

You're just trying to look smart. You're making it way too difficult to tease down. All you need to know is the money line and the value of the one and two.

LOL I'll take that as a compliment from you

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

LOL I'll take that as a compliment from you

Since you want to play teaser god.

What's the optimal amount to bet on 2,3,4,5,6 game teasers, full kelly, 100,000 bankroll, each teaser leg has a win probability of .725

Teaser payouts:

2 team +100
3 team +180
4 team +300
5 team +500
6 team +800

or at least tell me how to go about it.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

If you want to have fun with numbers answer this:

What's the optimal amount to bet on 2,3,4,5,6 game teasers, full kelly, 100,000 bankroll, each teaser leg has a win probability of .725

Teaser payouts:

2 team +100
3 team +180
4 team +300
5 team +500
6 team +800

No.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Since you want to play teaser god.

What's the optimal amount to bet on 2,3,4,5,6 game teasers, full kelly, 100,000 bankroll, each teaser leg has a win probability of .725

Teaser payouts:

2 team +100
3 team +180
4 team +300
5 team +500
6 team +800

or at least tell me how to go about it.

Feeling extra insecure today Jim ?

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 03:20 PM

But you can still call me teaser god

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

But you can still call me teaser god

lol

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Feeling extra insecure today Jim ?

nah, just trying to figure out why you call out things as being nonsense when you don't know how to optimize.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

nah, just trying to figure out why you call out things as being nonsense when you don't know how to optimize.

Ok. Anything else ?

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Ok. Anything else ?

not now but I'm sure you'll give me some ammo later.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 03:34 PM

This is what is known as "rent free" in someone's head

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

not now but I'm sure you'll give me some ammo later.

I'll be back in around 6 hours so make sure you're here

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

This is what is known as "rent free" in someone's head

more like comic relief.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

I'll be back in around 6 hours so make sure you're here

you'll be sure to follow one of my posts. Maybe I'll reply, maybe I won't.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

you'll be sure to follow one of my posts. Maybe I'll reply, maybe I won't.

Right. The guy that always replies to me is the one being followed

Stay funny Jim

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Right. The guy that always replies to me is the one being followed

Stay funny Jim

will do

**Optional** · 10-13-23, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Since you want to play teaser god.

What's the optimal amount to bet on 2,3,4,5,6 game teasers, full kelly, 100,000 bankroll, each teaser leg has a win probability of .725

Teaser payouts:

2 team +100
3 team +180
4 team +300
5 team +500
6 team +800

or at least tell me how to go about it.

May as well give the thread a quick run down if you friend isn't going to try?

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by Optional

May as well give the thread a quick run down if you friend isn't going to try?

I was just goofing around since AG was calling the teaser math info nonsense prior to his math.

The best way to make money betting teasers is to first completely ignore this thread filled with nonsense and misinformation

You can optimize using solver.

2 teams =.624% of bankroll, $9360
3 teamers = 0
4 teamers = 0
5 teamers = 0
6 teamers = 2.726%, $2726

I knew AG couldn't do it. But the only thing you really need to know is use Wong teasers.