Teasers are the best way to make money in NFL

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:10 PM

No space between o: and points

SBR automatically turns it into an emoji

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 09:11 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Yeah nice of you to crop the photo. Why don't you show the YEARS this data subset is from ?

What are the top 3 key numbers from 2015 season through the present

It's not #2

Examining NFL Key Numbers for Over/Unders | Sports Insights

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/examining-nfl-key-numbers-overunders/

The team at Sports Insights examines Key Numbers for Over/Unders in the NFL and determines the most common combined scoring outputs.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

2013

Why the penetrate are you using 2013 data ???

See what I mean ?

You have no data. You can only search for information and you're at the whim of whoever is collecting this data and if they choose to update it or not

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 09:12 PM

You can't come up with a complicated question? Class in session. Not something that a 10 year old can do.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Why the penetrate are you using 2013 data ???

See what I mean ?

You have no data. You can only search for information and you're at the whim of whoever is collecting this data and if they choose to update it or not

You idiot, anyone can do a query. Why you stuck arguing simple stuff.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

You can't come up with a complicated question? Class in session. Not something that a 10 year old can do.

HAHHAHAH I already did. Well it's complicated for you

What's the top 3 key numbers from 2015 season until present ?

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

You idiot, anyone can do a query. Why you stuck arguing simple stuff.

You can't. You don't know the key totals from 2015 to present and you don't know which ones have been profitable to tease. You're stuck googling outdated information and guessing

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

HAHHAHAH I already did. Well it's complicated for you

What's the top 3 key numbers from 2015 season until present ?

I ask for something complicated and that's the best you can come up with? A simple query where the answer is dependent on data used. I wasted my time with a simpleton.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

I ask for something complicated and that's the best you can come up with? A simple query where the answer is dependent on data used. I wasted my time with a simpleton.

So why can't you do it then ?

You're retarded. Easy answer

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:16 PM

Of course the answer is dependent on data used. Why are you using 2013 data. What relevance does 2013 have to do with the current game ???

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:38 PM

One of the nice things about teasing totals is that most people aren't aware of it. Of course people do it, but there's no strategy behind it. There's no reason for books to worry about teaser total liability

So one of the things that can be exploited is that books are much more loose with their total, meaning it can be off the market by a half point, even full point with much more regularity than the spread. That alone can be enough to tip the scales

Looking at just the total there are already a few numbers by themselves that have hit at a greater than 72.4% rate since 2015. Teasing 46.5 to 52.5 is just one example (77.7%). There are others

Then you can factor in other things, like home/away, the spread, previous games/matchups, it's no different than looking for any other trend

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 09:44 PM

Don't ever tease totals. There are no subsets that will be profitable. Backfitting is dangerous.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Don't ever tease totals. There are no subsets that will be profitable. Backfitting is dangerous.

You don't even know what backfitting is HAHAHHAHAHAHHAHA

There's literally 2 variables here. The season (everything from 2015 to present) and the number

You know nothing about teasers beyond crossing 3 and 7. That's the extent of your knowledge

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:48 PM

Go learn some SDQL retard. I'm done schooling you for today

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 09:50 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

You don't even know what backfitting is HAHAHHAHAHAHHAHA

There's literally 2 variables here. The season (everything from 2015 to present) and the number

You know nothing about teasers beyond crossing 3 and 7. That's the extent of your knowledge

You are completely clueless. You just mentioned a ton of things such as home/away and spread. Don't tease totals.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Go learn some SDQL retard. I'm done schooling you for today

You took a junior high math or programming class to learn how to do a database search. Tough stuff.

**DJK** · 10-13-23, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

You took a junior high math or programming class to learn how to do a database search. Tough stuff.

I don't think they would ever teach SDQL in Junior High. Today's kids are too stupid to learn that.

**raiders72001** · 10-14-23, 10:33 PM

FWIW this is the way I tease down. Look at the Buf line next week.

Buf -8.5
ML -395/310

Set the no-vig line to get implied probability. https://sportsbettingsites.org/betti...ig-calculator/
This comes out to 76.59% chance that Buffalo wins. But Buf winning by 1 or 2 would be a loss.
The 1 will come up less than 2% of the time. Same with the 2.

76.59 - 2 -2 = 72.59%
Breakeven = 72.37%

I expect that line to go higher. It's a good leg as is but can turn into a great leg. Of course it could go the other way and turn out to be a bad leg.

**raiders72001** · 10-14-23, 10:42 PM

SF next week 7.5 -375/295 implied probability of 75.72% - 2% for the 1 =73.72%

**raiders72001** · 10-16-23, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

My two cents on Teasers:

1) SO OFTEN, I hear players say "I'm going to Tease that game." And it's just the #, doesn't have anything to do with their opinion on the game.

2) The Teaser ODDs have gotten worse over time. What do you pay on 2-team 6-pointers? -120?

3) I will go ahead and challenge someone to post their NFL Teasers on this site.
...If they can bet 40+ Teasers and clear +10% profit, I'll give them a prize.

Much easier said than done, IMHO.

-110

Sea not a good leg as with the current ML but that should go up.

Just posting these but will never hit 10% profit. Impossible.

**Enkhbat** · 10-17-23, 09:09 AM

Who are you teaser candidates this week? Seahawks, Lions, Jaguars, 49ers?

**Orion1178** · 10-17-23, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

Who are you teaser candidates this week? Seahawks, Lions, Jaguars, 49ers?

In order

1)lions - I love them getting 3 pts on the road. They're 5-1 and only loss was by 6 pts in overtime. Teasing that to 9 pts is fantastic

2)bills - pats look totally dead

3)seahawks - traditionally a great home team facing 1-5 Arizona. Great chance they win the game

4)49ers - no chance they lose back to back games

**raiders72001** · 10-17-23, 05:14 PM

1. Buf - bet
2. Sea - bet
haven't played but may later.
3. Mia
4. Atl

**OldBill** · 10-17-23, 06:33 PM

ok some chalks are so huge you cannot tease them look at bills -16.5 even 10 point teaser leaves you at loss

wk 4 home dog +3 browns even 10 point tease would lose they lost 28-3
week 4 bengals - 2.5 @ Titans tease them to +8.5 you lose they got buried 27-3

cheifs -8.5 tease to -1.5 works won by 3 23-20

GIANTS mnf +2.5 tease em 10 pts +12.5 you still lose they got destroyed 24-3

big chalk wsh wk 5 - 6.6 tease to n+3.5 would desory you odds would be - 450 they lost by 20 points 40-20

BIG dog panthers + 9.5 tease to +15.5 odds would be - 350 and they got buried 42-24

week 5 patriots -1.5 tease to +9.5 odds go wy up -380 and you lose they ate a bagel 34-0
ravens - 4.5 @ steelers -110 tease to dog +3.5 and oddds go to -385 and lose they s/u lost 17-10

Cards +3 home tease to +10.5 odds go up -350 a nd u lose cincy b eat the piss out of em 34 -20

only home dog tease that worked Vikes +3.5 up to +9.5 lost by 7 27-20

road dog tease Packers +1.5 to +7.5 worked they lost by 4 17-13

big home chalk tease miami -16.5 down to -10 works then won by 15 but -110 goes to -350

**OldBill** · 10-17-23, 06:48 PM

teaser odds go way up thats why i do multple 4 or more teaser bets say you tease chalk - 5 to +3.5 your goonaa see -390 an d they wind up losing s/u you lose $39 or worse

- 380 m l is bad too or higher -800 and dog covers at -115

2 team steasers ehhhhhhh have to win both 1-1 is a loss might be -450 for 2 7 point teasers

like umm dont ya think vegas figured this shit out 50 years go and long ago i couldnt tease road dog and totals in same game havent tried lately

so therefore teasers are not going to win you money all year because of added juice -115 becomes - 450 i know i done it a million times live in casino fan duel used next time i'll save the tickets and show pics

**raiders72001** · 10-17-23, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by OldBill

ok some chalks are so huge you cannot tease them look at bills -16.5 even 10 point teaser leaves you at loss

wk 4 home dog +3 browns even 10 point tease would lose they lost 28-3
week 4 bengals - 2.5 @ Titans tease them to +8.5 you lose they got buried 27-3

cheifs -8.5 tease to -1.5 works won by 3 23-20

GIANTS mnf +2.5 tease em 10 pts +12.5 you still lose they got destroyed 24-3

big chalk wsh wk 5 - 6.6 tease to n+3.5 would desory you odds would be - 450 they lost by 20 points 40-20

BIG dog panthers + 9.5 tease to +15.5 odds would be - 350 and they got buried 42-24

week 5 patriots -1.5 tease to +9.5 odds go wy up -380 and you lose they ate a bagel 34-0
ravens - 4.5 @ steelers -110 tease to dog +3.5 and oddds go to -385 and lose they s/u lost 17-10

Cards +3 home tease to +10.5 odds go up -350 a nd u lose cincy b eat the piss out of em 34 -20

only home dog tease that worked Vikes +3.5 up to +9.5 lost by 7 27-20

road dog tease Packers +1.5 to +7.5 worked they lost by 4 17-13

big home chalk tease miami -16.5 down to -10 works then won by 15 but -110 goes to -350

You have 2 Wong teasers in there and they both won.

**raiders72001** · 10-17-23, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by OldBill

teaser odds go way up thats why i do multple 4 or more teaser bets say you tease chalk - 5 to +3.5 your goonaa see -390 an d they wind up losing s/u you lose $39 or worse

- 380 m l is bad too or higher -800 and dog covers at -115

2 team steasers ehhhhhhh have to win both 1-1 is a loss might be -450 for 2 7 point teasers

like umm dont ya think vegas figured this shit out 50 years go and long ago i couldnt tease road dog and totals in same game havent tried lately

so therefore teasers are not going to win you money all year because of added juice -115 becomes - 450 i know i done it a million times live in casino fan duel used next time i'll save the tickets and show pics

1.Never cross 0. You don't want a dead number along with 1s and 2s.
2.Only tease when you cross 3 and 7.
3. 6 point teasers, only play at -110 or better.
4. 10 point teasers. Not automatic play but only consider lines of 10.5 - 12.5 when teasing down. 10 works on occasion. Use ML to determine.
5. 10 point teasers, only play -120 or better.

**Orion1178** · 10-17-23, 09:59 PM

I like Jacksonville a lot Thursday. Saints offense has been very weak this year. 7.5 point spread is a ton to cover for a team with a bad offense

Teasers against teams with a bad offense are fantastic

**Orion1178** · 10-17-23, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

1. Buf - bet
2. Sea - bet
haven't played but may later.
3. Mia
4. Atl

I don't like miami

Eagles are still an explosive offense and could win by 10+ pts

You don't tease against explosive teams like Philly, Detroit, KC, San Fran. Those teams win a lot of games by 10+ pts

**lakerboy** · 10-17-23, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by Orion1178

I don't like miami

Eagles are still an explosive offense and could win by 10+ pts

You don't tease against explosive teams like Philly, Detroit, KC, San Fran. Those teams win a lot of games by 10+ pts

Eagles have won 2 games out of 6 by ten+.

**Orion1178** · 10-17-23, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Eagles have won 2 games out of 6 by ten+.

That's a lot

Saints have won 1 game by 10+ and it was against an abominable patriots team
Vikings have won 0 by 10+
Raiders have won 0 by 10+

You tease against mediocre teams with shit offenses. Do not tease against Philly, Dallas, 49ers, chiefs, etc...

I teased against Dallas last week only because they were at chargers and chargers never get blown out, especially at home but that was a rare exception

The 2 keys is to tease against shit offenses for underdog teasers and tease using very reliable teams and QBs for favorite teasers

**GzaTheGenius** · 10-17-23, 10:35 PM

So are you up money or not ?

**Orion1178** · 10-17-23, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by GzaTheGenius

So are you up money or not ?

I'm 5-0 my last 5 teasers. I can't remember before that but I've been killing it. I turned 2k into 50k+

**lakerboy** · 10-17-23, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by Orion1178

That's a lot

Saints have won 1 game by 10+ and it was against an abominable patriots team
Vikings have won 0 by 10+
Raiders have won 0 by 10+

You tease against mediocre teams with shit offenses. Do not tease against Philly, Dallas, 49ers, chiefs, etc...

I teased against Dallas last week only because they were at chargers and chargers never get blown out, especially at home but that was a rare exception

The 2 keys is to tease against shit offenses for underdog teasers and tease using very reliable teams and QBs for favorite teasers

Good luck.

Patrick mahomes is the only reliable QB in the NFL.

**Orion1178** · 10-17-23, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Good luck.

Patrick mahomes is the only reliable QB in the NFL.

I like underdog teasers better than favorite teasers. Honestly I think teasing against teams either with terrible offenses and or teams like Minnesota and LAC that always play close games is fantastic. I can pick those correctly at a huge clip

Teasing down faves is a lot tougher. I think you're better off trying to tease down home faves - there's a lot more shocking road upsets. I loved Detroit at home getting 9 pts last week or a week before vs Carolina. Even in a close game situation, the odds of the rookie QB pulling it off is very very low

I love Seattle at home vs Arizona. Look at seahawks last few years vs bad teams at home, they win at a huge clip