49ers at Vikings

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  • DJK
    SBR MVP
    • 01-17-11
    • 2419

    #1
    49ers at Vikings
    My new strategy this year is to take the better team regardless of the spread.

    That strategy would have failed miserably on a day like yesterday.

    77% bets and 79% money are on 49ers and yet the line moved from -7 to -6.5 (tiny RLM) according to scoresandodds.

    Pinnacle lean is on the Vikings +7.0-111 as of 2 PM EST. It changes all the time, so who knows where it will end up by the kickoff.

    Actionnetwork has it about the same at 76% on 49ers, but they are showing opening odd at -2.5 (probably wrong) which then moved to -7, which would be the correct line adjustment by the books if they want to induce more betting on the Vikings to even the wagers.

    Then, the SBR odds is showing consensus higher juice for the Vikings at -115. When it's like this, it's the higher juiced team that covers from what I've seen in the past as all books are probably making a stand and want the public to take the 49ers even though it's already lopsided. If anyone disagrees, then let me know.

    The logical choice is to take the 49ers as they are the far superior team.

    But does Any Given Sunday scenario kick in on MNF? It sure did yesterday for a lot of the games.

    When iffy like this, I would wait for black HIPPY to post his pick and tail, but I think he's betting the Over and not the spread.
    Last edited by DJK; 10-23-23, 04:25 PM.
  • A4K
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-08-12
    • 5243

    #2
    Give me the Vikings and the points, especially if you can get the hook. +7.5
    Comment
    • DJK
      SBR MVP
      • 01-17-11
      • 2419

      #3
      Originally posted by DJK
      Then, the SBR odds is showing consensus higher juice for the Vikings at -115. When it's like this, it's the higher juiced team that covers from what I've seen in the past as all books are probably making a stand (with the Vikings) and want the public to take the 49ers even though it's already lopsided.
      Just saw a post on X that Caesars Sportsbook reported 80% of money on the 49ers and yet they lowered the spread from -7 to -6.5.

      No question that the books are siding with the Vikings, but that doesn't mean they are right.

      The problem is taking a bad team to cover for you.

      Just hate being on the wrong side of a beat down and the Vikings aren't going to beat up the 49ers. If anything, it will be the other way around.
      Comment
      • johnnyvegas13
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 05-21-15
        • 27776

        #4
        I gave the Vikings a good look but pass
        Comment
        • Headsterx
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 12-03-16
          • 22382

          #5
          My strategy is take the better team... check!
          take the better QB... check!
          take the better defense... check!
          take the better x-factor... check!
          And then take it to the BANK!!!

          Comment
          • JIBBBY
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-10-09
            • 83691

            #6
            Gotta lean 49ers. They are the better team. 7 points is alot though. -330 on the ML is heavy also since it is in Minny.

            I honestly don't know how to bet this focker? Alternate lines in favor of the 9ers maybe. Tease that line down to a field goal maybe and pay the chalk perhaps.

            I still haven't figured it out yet?
            Comment
            • DJK
              SBR MVP
              • 01-17-11
              • 2419

              #7
              Originally posted by johnnyvegas13
              I gave the Vikings a good look but pass
              The fact that you passed on the Vikings tells me to take the Vikings.

              If you took the Vikings plus money, then the 49ers would have been the lock.
              Comment
              • DJK
                SBR MVP
                • 01-17-11
                • 2419

                #8
                Was Fishhead any good at betting on football?

                At BMR, Fishhead has the Vikings and jjgold has the 49ers.

                What does that tell you?

                Vikings it is.
                Comment
                • trobin31
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 01-09-14
                  • 9853

                  #9
                  Took a fun Kittle and Hockenson parlay both yards over 80 total and Touchdown each
                  Comment
                  • johnnyvegas13
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 05-21-15
                    • 27776

                    #10
                    Originally posted by DJK
                    The fact that you passed on the Vikings tells me to take the Vikings.

                    If you took the Vikings plus money, then the 49ers would have been the lock.
                    Yes that is the running joke here
                    Comment
                    • DJK
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-17-11
                      • 2419

                      #11
                      Date Date Rot VH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Final Open Close ML 2H Closed ScoDif Result Covered ATS SU
                      Sun, 09-23-2012 923 405 V SanFrancisco 0 3 10 0 13 7 7 -310 7 -7.0 -11.0 -18.0 SanFrancisco
                      Sun, 09-23-2012 923 406 H Minnesota 7 10 0 7 24 43.5 42.5 255 21.5 7.0 11.0 18.0 Minnesota Dog Dog
                      Not that the past history back in 2012 matters, but that is the year the 49ers went to the Super Bowl and lost to Baltimore; meaning they were very good then too.
                      Comment
                      • JIBBBY
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 12-10-09
                        • 83691

                        #12
                        49ers -6.5 for me. Fock it, I'll gamble. SF Defense will win out.
                        Comment
                        • Headsterx
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 12-03-16
                          • 22382

                          #13
                          Originally posted by DJK
                          Was Fishhead any good at betting on football?

                          At BMR, Fishhead has the Vikings and jjgold has the 49ers.

                          What does that tell you?

                          Vikings it is.
                          It tells you nothing as both of them pound something differently in their own special ways.

                          Comment
                          • Headsterx
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-03-16
                            • 22382

                            #14
                            Backing the San Francisco 49ers is one of the most profitable bets in the NFL.

                            The 49ers are 13-4 against-the-spread in their last 17 games. Against tonight’s opponent, the Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco has covered 3 of their last 4 meetings. The 49ers are 7-point road favorites tonight, and are being backed by 76% of spread bets.

                            The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games, and have failed to cover 8 of their last 12 games. Minnesota is also just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football, while San Francisco has covered 3 in-a-row on the big stage.


                            Comment
                            • stevenash
                              Moderator
                              • 01-17-11
                              • 65147

                              #15
                              Vikings can't stop a head cold, CMC or no CMC, Deebo or no Deebo, over 43.5 looks like a minor play.
                              Or not, I'll be glued to game seven on FOX.

                              Best of luck all.
                              Comment
                              • stevenash
                                Moderator
                                • 01-17-11
                                • 65147

                                #16
                                Originally posted by DJK
                                Was Fishhead any good at betting on football?

                                At BMR, Fishhead has the Vikings and jjgold has the 49ers.

                                What does that tell you?

                                Vikings it is.
                                On second thought, I'll just bite my tongue in this spot.
                                Comment
                                • DJK
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-17-11
                                  • 2419

                                  #17
                                  I forgot about one of my other rules that I follow.

                                  Never take a team that just lost against another team that won.

                                  I asked my little girl who she liked and she asked her group of online friends.

                                  It was unanimous Vikings because it sounds cool.

                                  This type of capping is Gold Mine and it cannot be beaten.

                                  Go Vikings!
                                  Comment
                                  • DJK
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-17-11
                                    • 2419

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Headsterx
                                    My strategy is take the better team... check!
                                    take the better QB... check!
                                    take the better defense... check!
                                    take the better x-factor... check!
                                    And then take it to the BANK!!!

                                    That is a SOLID capping strategy. No questions.

                                    I have no clue why I stray off it sometimes.
                                    Comment
                                    • GunShard
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 03-05-10
                                      • 10026

                                      #19
                                      The public lost on Sunday on the Lions, Bills and Rams.
                                      Last edited by GunShard; 10-23-23, 07:59 PM.
                                      Comment
                                      • mjsuax13
                                        Moderator
                                        • 03-14-15
                                        • 24781

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Headsterx
                                        My strategy is take the better team... check!
                                        take the better QB... check!
                                        take the better defense... check!
                                        take the better x-factor... check!
                                        And then take it to the BANK!!!

                                        This would be a great script for a personal injury attorney!


                                        <a href="https://ibb.co/YkNXsGQ"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/zRmFvwx/IMG-2734.jpg" alt="IMG-2734" border="0"></a><br /><a target='_blank' href='https://dedupelist.com/'>remove duplicates from email list</a><br />
                                        Comment
                                        • Headsterx
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 12-03-16
                                          • 22382

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by mjsuax13
                                          This would be a great script for a personal injury attorney!


                                          <a rel="nofollow" href="https://ibb.co/YkNXsGQ"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/zRmFvwx/IMG-2734.jpg" alt="IMG-2734" border="0"></a><br /><a rel='nofollow' target='_blank' href='https://dedupelist.com/'>remove duplicates from email list</a><br />
                                          Love it! Vikings might need to call them with all the hurting Niners are gonna put on them.
                                          Comment
                                          • mjsuax13
                                            Moderator
                                            • 03-14-15
                                            • 24781

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Headsterx
                                            Love it! Vikings might need to call them with all the hurting Niners are gonna put on them.
                                            Lerner is a buddy, I’ll get them a group rate!
                                            Comment
                                            • Headsterx
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 12-03-16
                                              • 22382

                                              #23
                                              If you WANT someone to get injured, then call the best defense firm around: Ward & Bosa
                                              Comment
                                              • mackave
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 03-22-14
                                                • 4972

                                                #24
                                                on Vikings +6.5 , 9-3 in spread football pool this week and need them to win outright otherwise got a tie breaker if other person has 9'ers
                                                Comment
                                                • Headsterx
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-03-16
                                                  • 22382

                                                  #25
                                                  And who got the INT?

                                                  Ward & Bosa

                                                  Comment
                                                  • DwightShrute
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 01-17-09
                                                    • 102294

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by mackave
                                                    on Vikings +6.5 , 9-3 in spread football pool this week and need them to win outright otherwise got a tie breaker if other person has 9'ers
                                                    That's an exciting feeling which I have experience several times over the years. All the things that had to go your way in so many games!

                                                    good luck.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • d2bets
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 08-10-05
                                                      • 39990

                                                      #27
                                                      Moody lol bum
                                                      Comment
                                                      • DJK
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-17-11
                                                        • 2419

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by d2bets
                                                        Moody lol bum
                                                        Yes he is for missing that short shot.

                                                        But, it also depends on what sides you are on.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • DJK
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-17-11
                                                          • 2419

                                                          #29
                                                          What the fuk...

                                                          Can't say this game isn't exciting to watch.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JIBBBY
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-10-09
                                                            • 83691

                                                            #30
                                                            SF self destructing. SOB! Should have took the Vikings and the points! SF looks like garbage tonight on defense as well. Cousins carving the secondary up.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • stevenash
                                                              Moderator
                                                              • 01-17-11
                                                              • 65147

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Headsterx
                                                              If you WANT someone to get injured, then call the best defense firm around: Ward & Bosa
                                                              And Thom O. Rino representing the prosecution.

                                                              Now there's a Perry Mason episode never created.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • DJK
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-17-11
                                                                • 2419

                                                                #32
                                                                That TD was possible because O'Connell took 2 time outs to save time when the 49ers were driving.

                                                                I was wondering why bother.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Headsterx
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 12-03-16
                                                                  • 22382

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Purdy’s aura has evaporated.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Headsterx
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 12-03-16
                                                                    • 22382

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Niners need to hold Vikes to FG or they are done.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • DJK
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-17-11
                                                                      • 2419

                                                                      #35
                                                                      They said something about Vikings being a dog at home for the first time since 2014.

                                                                      So, that's the trick.

                                                                      Take Vikings when they are the dog at home.
                                                                      Comment
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