How can you not take Chiefs next week in the playoffs?

**hehfest** · 01-08-24, 12:32 AM

Dude. Isn't this a little early? I didn't even know the matchups yet, and you already degened.

**Eddy Munny** · 01-08-24, 01:16 AM

All the fish on a road dog? What the hell does that even mean?

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 01-08-24, 02:36 AM

I think he means all the squares are on the Dolphins but the Chiefs are getting the money; way more bettors one way, way more money the other.

**Eddy Munny** · 01-08-24, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer

I think he means all the squares are on the Dolphins but the Chiefs are getting the money; way more bettors one way, way more money the other.

There's a fundamental problem with this assessment tho... The average joe isn't betting on a Sunday night for next week's games. That's just not how squares roll. Money this early is from bettors trying to capture an edge with a given number, not saying they're all sharp necessarily, but not what I would call square money.

**hehfest** · 01-08-24, 02:59 AM

Originally posted by Eddy Munny

There's a fundamental problem and with this assessment... The average joe isn't betting on a Sunday night for next week's games. That's just not how squares roll. Money this early is from bettors trying to capture an edge with a given number, not saying they're all sharp necessarily, but not what I would call square money.

I don't agree with that either. I wait until the last 15-20 minutes before the game because Line Movements are very important to me. More important to me than betting something Sunday night a week before the games.

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 01-08-24, 04:16 AM

I don't know if his assessment is correct, but that sounds like what it is; I'm not touching the game.

**d2bets** · 01-08-24, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by hehfest

I don't agree with that either. I wait until the last 15-20 minutes before the game because Line Movements are very important to me. More important to me than betting something Sunday night a week before the games.

That's a terrible plan. You're either betting on anti-steam, which is bad. Or you're betting with the steam at a bad number, which is also bad. Why don't you think the closing line is efficient?

**pavyracer** · 01-08-24, 09:00 AM

Not a lot of money bet a week before the game. Line movements that early could be a couple hundred dollar bets. Very easy to move line when there is light action.

**lakerboy** · 01-08-24, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

That's a terrible plan. You're either betting on anti-steam, which is bad. Or you're betting with the steam at a bad number, which is also bad. Why don't you think the closing line is efficient?

Maybe but when you bet early you are actually gambling aka guessing. I do agree that the closing line isn't the be all and end all but the money coming in closer to the game is usually fairly accurate.

**k13** · 01-08-24, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by hehfest

I don't agree with that either. I wait until the last 15-20 minutes before the game because Line Movements are very important to me. More important to me than betting something Sunday night a week before the games.

You don't have to bet right now but the Chiefs are the play unless something changes leading up to the game.

**Renegades** · 01-08-24, 10:01 AM

Miami is a fraud. Their offense is good vs trash teams.

**DwightShrute** · 01-08-24, 10:04 AM

Miami 31 Kansas City 30

**lakerboy** · 01-08-24, 10:25 AM

Mia might cover the 3.5 and lose at least that's what I think and books will be happy with that.

That hook is crucial

**franz555** · 01-08-24, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by k13

You don't have to bet right now but the Chiefs are the play unless something changes leading up to the game.

Plenty can change leading up to the game. Primarily the health of several key players for Miami. Although KC are a very average team right now , I would back them -3 if Waddle , T.Hill , both Def ends and safeties are all still banged up. Otherwise , I think Miami may well be the better team right now

**Da Manster!** · 01-08-24, 11:42 AM

Also one has to consider the revenge angle as well if you are going to wager on the Chiefs/Dolphins game. KC beat them in Germany earlier in the year 21 - 14. but like Franz and others have already mentioned, the biggest and main concern/issue with this game is the health and injury concern of the Dolphins. lot's of players banged up while the Chiefs are healthy (relatively speaking). only a few players nicked up but all of the key cogs and core players are ready to go.

**k13** · 01-08-24, 04:15 PM

Spread goes under -3 then mind can change otherwise too strong of a position by books.

**texhooper** · 01-08-24, 04:16 PM

I like revenge angles but mainly when a team gets upset then gets another shot. Or even if the team who lost is clearly really good. I’m sure Miami wanted revenge last night, for instance. They just haven’t done enough to prove their worth yet. Definitely on a good trajectory but not there yet and I don’t see their proving grounds being Arrowhead on a January night on the world renowned Peacock internet television service.

Also…one thing I usually don’t care much about is weather, but this game is gonna be colder than the frozen sperm coming out of Santa Claus’s nude erect penis with a candy cane hanging off of it after he spent all night delivering presents in the subzero atmosphere. Or at least that’s how cold it will feel to the poor Miami Dolphins.

Suffice it to say I like KC in this matchup. I’ll watch the line and see how all that shakes out before playing it but that’s where I am at the moment

**asiagambler** · 01-08-24, 05:22 PM

Looks too easy. But remember Chiefs have the worst WR group in NFL history

**klemopixx** · 01-08-24, 06:07 PM

Chiefs have been so non clutch this year. If it hits 4 then I'm taking the Dolphins.

**pavyracer** · 01-08-24, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Looks too easy. But remember Chiefs have the worst WR group in NFL history

There is a reason the line is so small for Chiefs and it is not because it is a steal. Books obviously know something else Chiefs would have been a much bigger favorite.

**hehfest** · 01-08-24, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

That's a terrible plan. You're either betting on anti-steam, which is bad. Or you're betting with the steam at a bad number, which is also bad. Why don't you think the closing line is efficient?

I understand your theory here, but its worked for me for years this way.

1. It gives me more time to get the best idea of where the public is really going based on my gut (not web sites information)
2. I pay close attention to the very late line movements that I have been studying for years.

And, at the end of the day, how many games come down burn you and fall close to the spread anyway? Sure, I could get a bad number now and again by waiting and it could affect me. Case in point: I would've bet the Colts early in the week accordingly this last game. However, by waiting, I got a good feel about the game. I didn't like the line movement I saw leading up to game-time so I just didn't bet the game.

I'm not saying by waiting it can't affect me negatively sometimes too, but for me its what works. Perhaps, betting right away is what works for you.

**asiagambler** · 01-08-24, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

There is a reason the line is so small for Chiefs and it is not because it is a steal. Books obviously know something else Chiefs would have been a much bigger favorite.

Tua is terrible. Always chokes when the game is on the line

**pavyracer** · 01-08-24, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Tua is terrible. Always chokes when the game is on the line

I agree..but the line is only a FG. It should have been a TD but it is not. Why were books affraid to open Chiefs -7?

**Da Manster!** · 01-08-24, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

I agree..but the line is only a FG. It should have been a TD but it is not. Why were books affraid to open Chiefs -7?

Because this is the NFL and these guys are professionals and Miami (even with all of their injuries) is still a talented playoff team with a very explosive offense. and up until that shellacking in Baltimore two weeks ago they were considered one of the top teams in the AFC that could make a Super Bowl run. Furthermore, let's not act like the Chiefs have been world beaters either and blowing teams out. they have had their fair share of problems as well this year and have also struggled too. Even Mahomes is having a down year with TE Travis Kelce as his only reliable weapon and no elite caliber wide receivers on the roster. Simply put, Dolphins are a very live dog that can not only cover but win this game outright as well.

**klemopixx** · 01-08-24, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

Because this is the NFL and these guys are professionals and Miami (even with all of their injuries) is still a talented playoff team with a very explosive offense. and up until that shellacking in Baltimore two weeks ago they were considered one of the top teams in the AFC that could make a Super Bowl run. Furthermore, let's not act like the Chiefs have been world beaters either and blowing teams out. they have had their fair share of problems as well this year and have also struggled too. Even Mahomes is having a down year with TE Travis Kelce as his only reliable weapon and no elite caliber wide receivers on the roster. Simply put, Dolphins are a very live dog that can not only cover but win this game outright as well.

Glad to see someone is thinking!

**Thefix13** · 01-08-24, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

Because this is the NFL and these guys are professionals and Miami (even with all of their injuries) is still a talented playoff team with a very explosive offense. and up until that shellacking in Baltimore two weeks ago they were considered one of the top teams in the AFC that could make a Super Bowl run. Furthermore, let's not act like the Chiefs have been world beaters either and blowing teams out. they have had their fair share of problems as well this year and have also struggled too. Even Mahomes is having a down year with TE Travis Kelce as his only reliable weapon and no elite caliber wide receivers on the roster. Simply put, Dolphins are a very live dog that can not only cover but win this game outright as well.

Stop it, we only care about the number because that determines everything, the players have no bearing on games.

How does one insert blue font? Asking for a friend

**Eddy Munny** · 01-08-24, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

I agree..but the line is only a FG. It should have been a TD but it is not. Why were books affraid to open Chiefs -7?

This line was never going to be -7. C'mon man... You also have to factor in players that could return this week like Waddle, Xavier Howard, and Jevon Holland. The game they played in Germany was competitive, a couple of flukes put MIA in an early hole.

**lakerboy** · 01-08-24, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

I agree..but the line is only a FG. It should have been a TD but it is not. Why were books affraid to open Chiefs -7?

Not a TD but -4.5 was fair.

I fully expect KC to win and not cover. Fg win. Typical KC bs then they will go to buffalo.

**Eddy Munny** · 01-08-24, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Not a TD but -4.5 was fair.

I fully expect KC to win and not cover. Fg win. Typical KC bs then they will go to buffalo.

I think it should get to 4, especially once the chatter about the weather pushes people towards the KC side. Highs on Saturday are supposed to be 14 and since they're playing at night they'll be facing colder temps than that.

**pavyracer** · 01-08-24, 08:51 PM

Originally posted by Eddy Munny

This line was never going to be -7. C'mon man... You also have to factor in players that could return this week like Waddle, Xavier Howard, and Jevon Holland. The game they played in Germany was competitive, a couple of flukes put MIA in an early hole.

Originally posted by lakerboy

Not a TD but -4.5 was fair.

I fully expect KC to win and not cover. Fg win. Typical KC bs then they will go to buffalo.

So you guys are saying that this year's Dolphins are better than last year's Bengals? The Bengals were -6.5 last year in Kansas City. I thought the line would be higher than 3.5. Chiefs were always about a TD favorite at home in past years in the playoffs.

I stilly think there is something fishy with this line and I'm not touching it.

**lakerboy** · 01-08-24, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by Eddy Munny

I think it should get to 4, especially once the chatter about the weather pushes people towards the KC side. Highs on Saturday are supposed to be 14 and since they're playing at night they'll be facing colder temps than that.

Agreed.

People are probably thinking of fading the fish because they have lost the last two games and they won't be able to play in that weather apparently. They played pretty well in Buffalo last season and it wasn't hot in January. The game in Germany the chiefs didn't score the entire second hf.

**Eddy Munny** · 01-08-24, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

So you guys are saying that this year's Dolphins are better than last year's Bengals? The Bengals were -6.5 last year in Kansas City. I thought the line would be higher than 3.5. Chiefs were always about a TD favorite at home in past years in the playoffs.

I stilly think there is something fishy with this line and I'm not touching it.

Chiefs were perceived to be elite last year, they've lost a lot of luster this season. They also had a bye in the WC round and the Bengals were playing their 2nd consecutive road game. If I remember correctly, Cincy's entire offensive line was banged up as well... I think 4 out of 5 starters were missing.

**lakerboy** · 01-08-24, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

So you guys are saying that this year's Dolphins are better than last year's Bengals? The Bengals were -6.5 last year in Kansas City. I thought the line would be higher than 3.5. Chiefs were always about a TD favorite at home in past years in the playoffs.

I stilly think there is something fishy with this line and I'm not touching it.

Bengals closed+2.5 in that game. They opened up as a favorite and it went all over the place.

KC was-7 the year before in the AFC championship game.

Completely different situation though because those were the AFC championship games.

**trobin31** · 01-08-24, 09:26 PM

Can you really trust Tua in a must win game winning drive situation in a close game at the end?

Can you trust KC wide receivers to make plays consistently throughout a big game?

Defensively not sure Miami can get pressure at all which means Mahomes has all day and eats.

Miami will have to rely on big plays by Tyreek, Waddle or Achane which is certainly possible but also relying on big plays just isn’t a consistent strategy, especially in cold weather, on the road in loud stadiums. Maybe McDaniels has a super secret nerd playbook saved up for this game cause gonna need it.