Baltimore to win Superbowl?

[chen]

Can Baltimore win it

[pavyracer]

Can Baltimore win it

No they can't. Only a Chiefs win will shock the world.

oh wait a second..different poster.

[bhoor]

They go with their script who wins this year.

[Eddy Munny]

Yes I think they can. I've narrowed it down to four that I think can win it all.

[asiagambler]

ZERO chance

[hehfest]

Its a "Chalk-a-thon" playoffs:

KC - Chalk
Balt - Chalk
SF - Chalk
Det - Partial chalk and now getting 7 which is a surprise to me

Same shit every year - KC semis, SF semis (well, at least almost every year)

I'm going to go buy some chalk and become a hop-scotch pro instead of corn-hole.

[hehfest]

No they can't. Only a Chiefs win will shock the world.

oh wait a second..different poster.

LOL - A preseason chalk favorite to win this SB (Chiefs) surely is a shock the world moment. Good God.

[stevenash]

Det - Partial chalk and now getting 7 which is a surprise to me.

Not that big of a surprise to me.

When Detroit finished off Tampa Bay earlier and before the opening line was posted I seriously thought SF would be -6.
Seven points is a touch high, not surprisingly high IMO.

Remember now, Lions have a stingy run defense, and a piss poor pass defense.
And SF has four, that's right four really good pass catchers In Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, and CMC, not only is CMC the premier RB, he's also the premier pass catching running backs.

CMC counterfeits Detroit's run defense because all the other things CMC can do.

Run defense is the only aspect that Detroit has a demonstrative edge over SF.

I don't think Goff is that much better than Purdy, the QB matchup is pretty much a wash.
SF has the clear advantage in run offense, and SF has the better set of receivers.
Kittle is the best TE in the NFC, and it's clear age has caught up to Kelce in the AFC I'm not sure if he's that much better than Kittle now.

Special teams are pretty much even, the front lines too.

And just as important, SF has the game in their back yard.
I usually downplay home field, EXCEPT in playoff games., then it's a major factor.

SF -7 is about right, maybe a point high.
I won't bet SF laying anything higher than six points.
Conversely, for me to flip the switch, I won't bet Detroit getting anything more than eight points.

I have a theory why the line maker made the opener seven points.

[Optional]

I have a theory why the line maker made the opener seven points.

Do tell

[hehfest]

Not that big of a surprise to me.

When Detroit finished off Tampa Bay earlier and before the opening line was posted I seriously thought SF would be -6.
Seven points is a touch high, not surprisingly high IMO.

Remember now, Lions have a stingy run defense, and a piss poor pass defense.
And SF has four, that's right four really good pass catchers In Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, and CMC, not only is CMC the premier RB, he's also the premier pass catching running backs.

CMC counterfeits Detroit's run defense because all the other things CMC can do.

Run defense is the only aspect that Detroit has a demonstrative edge over SF.

I don't think Goff is that much better than Purdy, the QB matchup is pretty much a wash.
SF has the clear advantage in run offense, and SF has the better set of receivers.
Kittle is the best TE in the NFC, and it's clear age has caught up to Kelce in the AFC I'm not sure if he's that much better than Kittle now.

Special teams are pretty much even, the front lines too.

And just as important, SF has the game in their back yard.
I usually downplay home field, EXCEPT in playoff games., then it's a major factor.

SF -7 is about right, maybe a point high.
I won't bet SF laying anything higher than six points.
Conversely, for me to flip the switch, I won't bet Detroit getting anything more than eight points.

I have a theory why the line maker made the opener seven points.

There are different ways of looking at why its 7, but you could say if GB was 10/10.5 close; they are suggesting the Lions are only a 3/3.5 point better team than GB. No doubt GB put it to Dallas and almost beat SF too where Detroit basically tied Dallas. So, I was expecting 6 and not 7. Nearly, what you thought. You could make an argument for 5/5.5 in my opinion too.

[povis]

Baltimore will lose in a final

[stevenash]

Do tell

I will share, but I can't get to it until after dinner later tonight.
I think it's an interesting theory, but that's one man's opinion.
Today is Monday, what I like to call Mondays "Get shit done Monday."
After binging on takeout food and NFL football all weekend Mondays are the day I have to return to my real life and get shit done.
We here at Casa de Nasher can get pretty sloppy on weekends, so we need to clean the house, tend to real life stuff.
Real life here ends at 5pm on Friday, it returns on Monday at 9am.



Social media stuff is my side hustle, it's great, but it's just a side hustle.

[pavyracer]

Baltimore will lose in a final

Here in the US a final in NFL is called a Superbowl.

[Headsterx]

They go with their script who wins this year.

That was a fake leak to divert NFL/CBS plan on getting a Swift’s Super Bowl. Look how weak the halftime show is this year (though I never been a fan of any halftime show.).

[pimike]

Here in the US a final in NFL is called a Superbowl.

Love it

Always enjoy seeing Paver

[homie1975]

Here in the US a final in NFL is called a Superbowl.

he means the World Series.

Ravens to win the WS

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Niners over the Chiefs in the NFL finals.

[lakerboy]

Here in the US a final in NFL is called a Superbowl.

So you understood what he meant anyways?

[Headsterx]

Niners over the Chiefs in the NFL finals.

DH knows what’s up!

[Optional]

So you understood what he meant anyways?

I think he meant it as either of the last two games being finals.

[hehfest]

DH knows what’s up!

Or, Ravens/Lions is the other possibility albeit less likely.

[Itsamazing777]

Do tell

Teasers

[Headsterx]

Or, Ravens/Lions is the other possibility albeit less likely.

Lions ain’t winning shit this Sunday. Henry will be rolling in his grave when Lions play at LEVI’S Stadium.
🤣🤣🤣

[JIBBBY]

SF might have something to say about that. Ravens will also have to get past KC as well first. Tough road for the Ravens to win it all.

[JIBBBY]

Lions ain’t winning shit this Sunday. Henry will be rolling in his grave when Lions play at LEVI’S Stadium.
藍藍藍

Agreed. Lions season ends next week. SF rolls.

[hehfest]

Lions ain’t winning shit this Sunday. Henry will be rolling in his grave when Lions play at LEVI’S Stadium.
藍藍藍

LOL - I've been warned so I will not comment further, but LOL duly noted.

[stevenash]

Do tell

This is my theory, if anybody else thinks so as well I haven't heard it yet.

1/21/79, 45 years ago.
Super Bowl Sunday.
Steelers v. Cowboys

The day gamblers and book makers refer to as "Black Sunday."
The book got slaughtered, hammered so hard the game almost buried them, took them years to recover after that.

Steelers opened as a 2.5 favorite and closed as a 5-point favorite.
This is well documented.

Sharps hammered Steelers at -2.5, when the line reached -five points, the sharps sensing a very good chance of a middle existing they doubled down on Cowboys getting five points.

Final score, 35-31

Jimmy Vaccaro was the head book at the Royal then, he lost millions alone.
Lefty Rosenthal got fleeced for millions alone too at the Stardust, to add insult to injury, salt to the wound, Lefty and the Stardust ran a promotion, he offered you can take the Steelers at -3.5, or Cowboys at +4.5
OUCH

Read the play-by-play on how the fourth quarter went.
You can't make this shit up.

Insane fourth quarter.

Super Bowl XIII - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas Cowboys - January 21st, 1979 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Now this is my theory as to why the line of the SF game opened at seven, twenty fours later remains at seven, and I'm confident the game closed at seven, if that line deviates at all, it won't move more than half a point.

I think the books never want to get harmed again like that middle again.
Just my thoughts.

Books are like elephants, they never forget.
They're in the business of legally taking our money, not getting buried like that.
To the book's credit in Vegas, they all paid out according to Vacarro.

[bhoor]

This is my theory, if anybody else thinks so as well I haven't heard it yet.

1/21/79, 45 years ago.
Super Bowl Sunday.
Steelers v. Cowboys

The day gamblers and book makers refer to as "Black Sunday."
The book got slaughtered, hammered so hard the game almost buried them, took them years to recover after that.

Steelers opened as a 2.5 favorite and closed as a 5-point favorite.
This is well documented.

Sharps hammered Steelers at -2.5, when the line reached -five points, the sharps sensing a very good chance of a middle existing they doubled down on Cowboys getting five points.

Final score, 35-31

Jimmy Vaccaro was the head book at the Royal then, he lost millions alone.
Lefty Rosenthal got fleeced for millions alone too at the Stardust, to add insult to injury, salt to the wound, Lefty and the Stardust ran a promotion, he offered you can take the Steelers at -3.5, or Cowboys at +4.5
OUCH

Read the play-by-play on how the fourth quarter went.
You can't make this shit up.

Insane fourth quarter.

Super Bowl XIII - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas Cowboys - January 21st, 1979 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Now this is my theory as to why the line of the SF game opened at seven, twenty fours later remains at seven, and I'm confident the game closed at seven, if that line deviates at all, it won't move more than half a point.

I think the books never want to get harmed again like that middle again.
Just my thoughts.

Books are like elephants, they never forget.
They're in the business of legally taking our money, not getting buried like that.
To the book's credit in Vegas, they all paid out according to Vacarro.

Vegas has partnerships with all the leagues now. And they basically influence the outcomes, yes, they would take a $1m bet on the NFL and they won't blink an eye.

[bhoor]

The business model they have for the NFL is making money off from the sports betting. Currently, there could be $1t in play in the sports betting for the NFL. Lets say, we have 32 teams and their total net value would be somewhere around $128B ( 32*$4b). When you can make money off through sports betting partnerships, why do you want to worry about your own franchise? It's a big scam like the Federal Reserve, making money out of thin air.
That's why some folks think the injury of AR, the collapse of the Bills player on the field, Taylor S characters are satanic rituals of some sort.

[budwiser]

well the lions 9ers line was mostly 6.5 this morning and is 7 now. possible related to the deebo samuel injury not sure

never heard of lefty doing that promotion on a key number. dumber than hell. which happens

this goes back to the question are books in it to balance money or make a profit. the answer to that is depend on what book. maybe what game, maybe what sport. the bigger answer is they want action. the more the action the higher the rake

all that said yes books don't want to be middled. if every other book has the same issue/line the bookmaker can keep his job, that's why i'm guessing you see lines often move in unison. if you're an outlier as a bookmaker and lose you can lose your job, try explaining that to the boss

[pavyracer]

This is my theory, if anybody else thinks so as well I haven't heard it yet.

1/21/79, 45 years ago.
Super Bowl Sunday.
Steelers v. Cowboys

The day gamblers and book makers refer to as "Black Sunday."
The book got slaughtered, hammered so hard the game almost buried them, took them years to recover after that.

Steelers opened as a 2.5 favorite and closed as a 5-point favorite.
This is well documented.

Sharps hammered Steelers at -2.5, when the line reached -five points, the sharps sensing a very good chance of a middle existing they doubled down on Cowboys getting five points.

Final score, 35-31

Jimmy Vaccaro was the head book at the Royal then, he lost millions alone.
Lefty Rosenthal got fleeced for millions alone too at the Stardust, to add insult to injury, salt to the wound, Lefty and the Stardust ran a promotion, he offered you can take the Steelers at -3.5, or Cowboys at +4.5
OUCH

Read the play-by-play on how the fourth quarter went.
You can't make this shit up.

Insane fourth quarter.

Super Bowl XIII - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas Cowboys - January 21st, 1979 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Now this is my theory as to why the line of the SF game opened at seven, twenty fours later remains at seven, and I'm confident the game closed at seven, if that line deviates at all, it won't move more than half a point.

I think the books never want to get harmed again like that middle again.
Just my thoughts.

Books are like elephants, they never forget.
They're in the business of legally taking our money, not getting buried like that.
To the book's credit in Vegas, they all paid out according to Vacarro.

Didn't the books get middled on the total of Ravens - Texans? Opened 45 then dropped to 43.5 and closed at 44?

Final Score 34-10. And the last FG that made that score was very suspicious. Who kicks a FG up 3 TDS and a few minutes left? So it looks like it is possible to manipulate the final score even in the playoffs for someone's benefit and the coaches and players know what they are doing.

[bhoor]

Didn't the books get middled on the total of Ravens - Texans? Opened 45 then dropped to 43.5 and closed at 44?

Final Score 34-10. And the last FG that made that score was very suspicious. Who kicks a FG up 3 TDS and a few minutes left? So it looks like it is possible to manipulate the final score even in the playoffs for someone's benefit and the coaches and players know what they are doing.

When you give players $40m-year contract and $10m for coaches, they would all shut up, listening to handlers' requests.

[Vene1616]

Can you elaborate what the -7 line has to do with your story?

The only reasonable theory I have is that books couldn't afford to open SF -5.5 or -6.0 just because it was so OBVIOUS the bettors will think SF will play much better this week than last week, and line would be forced to -7 or -7.5 anyway? .... and the 'real price' is SF-6 or even less-->ergo, take the Lions?

This is my theory, if anybody else thinks so as well I haven't heard it yet.

1/21/79, 45 years ago.
Super Bowl Sunday.
Steelers v. Cowboys

The day gamblers and book makers refer to as "Black Sunday."
The book got slaughtered, hammered so hard the game almost buried them, took them years to recover after that.

Steelers opened as a 2.5 favorite and closed as a 5-point favorite.
This is well documented.

Sharps hammered Steelers at -2.5, when the line reached -five points, the sharps sensing a very good chance of a middle existing they doubled down on Cowboys getting five points.

Final score, 35-31

Jimmy Vaccaro was the head book at the Royal then, he lost millions alone.
Lefty Rosenthal got fleeced for millions alone too at the Stardust, to add insult to injury, salt to the wound, Lefty and the Stardust ran a promotion, he offered you can take the Steelers at -3.5, or Cowboys at +4.5
OUCH

Read the play-by-play on how the fourth quarter went.
You can't make this shit up.

Insane fourth quarter.

Super Bowl XIII - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas Cowboys - January 21st, 1979 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Now this is my theory as to why the line of the SF game opened at seven, twenty fours later remains at seven, and I'm confident the game closed at seven, if that line deviates at all, it won't move more than half a point.

I think the books never want to get harmed again like that middle again.
Just my thoughts.

Books are like elephants, they never forget.
They're in the business of legally taking our money, not getting buried like that.
To the book's credit in Vegas, they all paid out according to Vacarro.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

They're not going to move from seven because it will almost guarantee that they'll be exposed and books want nothing more than balanced action, they won't dare take a stand.

[budwiser]

the line likely will move on whether deebo samuel is playing. just like it moves based on injury to any key player