500 plays +EV theory risking 100u

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • veriableodds
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-22-17
    • 5086

    #36
    12-17/ -1.2u/ tp count=104
    ytd/ 44-60/ -2.95u

    2/29 *the gauntlet continues* is this what a used banana feels like?
    --nba
    mlw/cha/O216/-110
    nyn/+4/-110
    sa/+11/-110
    dnv/ml/-185
    --nhl
    det/-108
    az/+216
    chi/+266
    lak/vnc/O6/-115
    --cbb
    maine/+2.5/-110
    memphis/ml/-170
    hofstra/+4.5/-110
    utep/+4.5/-110
    nc a@t/+12/-110
    stony brook/+10/-110
    njit/+5/-110
    liu/+13/-110
    sacred heart/ml/-175
    se missouri st/+18.5/-110
    south dakota/+4/-110
    south dakota state/ml/-105
    michigan/+7.5/-110
    abilene/+3/-110
    lindenwood/+9.5/-110
    tnn state/+8/-110
    portland/+10.5/-110
    new mexico state//+14/-110
    montana state/+1.5/-110
    montana/+5.5/-110
    northern az/+8/-110
    Tarlton state/ml/-155
    csu bakersfield/+6/-110
    cal state northridge/+8/-110
    washington/ml/-155
    pepperdine/+16.5/-110
    campbell/charleston/U155.5/-110
    usc/wash st/O138/-110
    36 plays risk 7.2u (0.2u-each)
    Comment
    • veriableodds
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-22-17
      • 5086

      #37
      19-16-1/ +0.05/ tp count=140
      ytd/ 63-76-1/ -2.90u

      *Looking at some obvious variables and based off the fact this is a payout ev+(106+ trial). Making two adjustments 1.ML only wagers going forward, 2. Lines from fav-vs-dog -250 thru +200
      3/1
      --nba
      tor/+140
      mem/-120
      chi/+150
      cha/phi/O211.5/-110
      --nhl
      az/+173
      --cbb
      Appalachian state/-240
      Harvard/+125
      old dominion/+170
      sienna/+110
      Iona/-145
      Cornell/-180
      Dayton/-115
      12 plays risk 2.4u (0.2u-each)
      Comment
      • veriableodds
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-22-17
        • 5086

        #38
        4-8/ -0.88/ tp count=152
        ytd/ 67-84-1/ -3.78u

        3/2
        --nhl
        det/+147
        stl/+110
        --cbb
        kansas/+215
        Illinois/+135
        tulsa/+215
        lsu/-155
        siu edwardsville/+150
        boston college/+100
        new mwxico/+145
        hawaii//+105
        cal state northridge/+180
        n colorado/+105
        ole miss/-120
        cornell-princeton/U156/-110
        va/duke/O125/-110
        s florida//+155
        prairie v-am/+135
        jackson state/+195
        tx am c/-130
        new hampshire/+155
        20 plays risk 4u (0.2u-each)
        Comment
        • veriableodds
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 08-22-17
          • 5086

          #39
          9-10-1/ +0.11/ tp count=172
          ytd/ 76-94-2/ -3.67u

          3/3 *adds* (3. no more considering teams that have less than a 36% chance of winning according to models. 4. no more minus lines despite the fact it shows long term positive. 5. despite a team having ev+ value of 106 or higher, all payout lines of under +110 will be scratched.
          --nba
          nyn/+210
          phx/+185
          --cbb
          iona/+138
          3 plays risk 0.6u (0.2u-each)
          Last edited by veriableodds; 03-03-24, 08:33 AM.
          Comment
          • veriableodds
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-22-17
            • 5086

            #40
            2-1/ +0.5u/ tp count=175
            ytd/ 78-95/ -3.17u

            3/4
            --nba
            lac/+175
            1 play risk 0.2u
            Comment
            • veriableodds
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 08-22-17
              • 5086

              #41
              0-1/ -0.2u/ tp count=176
              ytd/ 78-96-2/ -3.37u

              3/5
              --nba
              tor/+350
              ind/+160
              --cbb
              maine/+190
              purdue/+115
              ole miss/+120
              nevada/+200
              7 plays risk 1.4u (0.2u-each)
              Comment
              • veriableodds
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 08-22-17
                • 5086

                #42
                ^ *error* post #41. Just 6 plays not 7

                4-2/+0.93u/ tp count=182
                ytd/ 82-98-2/ -2.44u

                3/6
                --nhl
                bff/+170
                det/+181
                anh/+143
                --nba
                uth/+150
                mlw/+160
                --cbb
                Fairleigh d/+155
                Marquette/+190
                Indiana/+195
                8 plays risk 1.6u (0.2u-each)
                Comment
                • veriableodds
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-22-17
                  • 5086

                  #43
                  2-6/ -0.53u/ tp count=190
                  ytd/ 84-104-2/ -2.97u

                  3/7
                  --nhl
                  stl/+160
                  az/+130
                  --nba
                  det/+120
                  --cbb
                  lafayette/+140
                  tnn state/+130
                  utrgv/+165
                  colorado/+135
                  uc santa barbara/+180
                  8 plays risk 1.8u (0.2u-each)
                  Last edited by veriableodds; 03-07-24, 09:03 AM.
                  Comment
                  • veriableodds
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 08-22-17
                    • 5086

                    #44
                    3-5/ -0.13u / tp count=198
                    ytd/ 87-109-2/ -3.10u

                    3/8
                    --nba
                    phi/+270
                    mem/+130
                    ptl/+180
                    --cbb
                    nc a@t/+180
                    the citadel/+155
                    w ill/+180
                    6 plays 1.2u (0.2u-each)
                    Comment
                    • veriableodds
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 08-22-17
                      • 5086

                      #45
                      0-6/ -1.2u/ tp count=204
                      ytd/ 87-115-2/ -4.3u

                      3/9
                      --nhl
                      bff/+170
                      clg/+198
                      det/+178
                      --nba
                      cha/+210
                      det/+260
                      phx/+190
                      --cbb
                      quinnipiac/+125
                      la-lafayette/+115
                      charlotte/+110
                      unc/+195
                      utah/+155
                      utrgv/+180
                      n mexico/+150
                      denver/+170
                      14 plays risk 2.8u (0.2u-each)
                      Comment
                      • veriableodds
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 08-22-17
                        • 5086

                        #46
                        6-8/ +0.36/ tp count=218
                        ytd/ 93-123-2/ -3.94

                        3/10
                        --nhl
                        clg/+184
                        anh/+175
                        --nba
                        lac/+145
                        atl/+250
                        phi/+250
                        --cbb
                        temple/+175
                        etsu/+275
                        7 plays risk 1.4u (0.2u-each)
                        Comment
                        • veriableodds
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 08-22-17
                          • 5086

                          #47
                          3-4/ +0.6u/ tp count=225
                          ytd/ 96-127-2/ -3.34u

                          3/11
                          --cbb
                          Cleveland state/+200
                          --nba
                          chi/+180
                          2 plays risk 0.4u (0.2u-each)
                          Comment
                          • veriableodds
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 08-22-17
                            • 5086

                            #48
                            0-2/ -0.4u/ tp count=227
                            ytd/ 96-129-2/ -3.74u

                            3/12
                            --nhl
                            az/+170
                            clg/+155
                            sea/+130
                            --nba
                            phi/+220
                            mem/+115
                            minn/+230
                            sac/+120
                            --cbb
                            oklahoma state/+190
                            Canisius/+160
                            sacramento state/+190
                            nicholls state/+160
                            11 plays risk 2.2u (0.2u-each)
                            Comment
                            • veriableodds
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 08-22-17
                              • 5086

                              #49
                              5-6/ +0.37u/ tp count=238
                              ytd/ 101-135-2/ -3.38u

                              3/13
                              --nhl
                              stl/+140
                              --nba
                              tor/+140
                              sac/+110
                              --cbb
                              fresno state/+265
                              washington/+145
                              oklahoma/+125
                              nc state/+115
                              kansas state/+180
                              california b/+165
                              iona/+180
                              10 plays risk 2u (0.2u-each)
                              Comment
                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 04-04-11
                                • 36654

                                #50
                                Originally posted by veriableodds
                                5-6/ +0.37u/ tp count=238
                                ytd/ 101-135-2/ -3.38u

                                3/13
                                --nhl
                                stl/+140
                                --nba
                                tor/+140
                                sac/+110
                                --cbb
                                fresno state/+265
                                washington/+145
                                oklahoma/+125
                                nc state/+115
                                kansas state/+180
                                california b/+165
                                iona/+180
                                10 plays risk 2u (0.2u-each)
                                Nice hit on the Twolves.
                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                Comment
                                • veriableodds
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 08-22-17
                                  • 5086

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                  Nice hit on the Twolves.
                                  Thanks CHUCK appreciate it brother. OMG Fresno state +265 hit last night unreal.
                                  Comment
                                  • veriableodds
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 08-22-17
                                    • 5086

                                    #52
                                    6-4/ +1.15/ tp count=248
                                    ytd/ 107-139-2/ -2.23u

                                    *6. Discretion going forward, common sense picks as to keep high volume losing down. 7.Hockey reverting to MLB parameters with this sport. Some of the picks are not going to be + lines or +ev
                                    --nhl
                                    clg/+137
                                    wsh/+143
                                    --cbb
                                    jackson state/+140
                                    st Bonaventure/+125
                                    ole miss/+180
                                    tulane/+205
                                    Indiana/+115
                                    7 plays risk 1.4u (0.2u-each)
                                    Comment
                                    • veriableodds
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 08-22-17
                                      • 5086

                                      #53
                                      4-3/ +0.44u/ tp count=255
                                      ytd/ 111-142-2/ -1.79u

                                      3/15
                                      --nba
                                      lac/+250
                                      uth/+125
                                      --cbb
                                      marist/+195
                                      utah state/+145
                                      florida/+175
                                      nc state/+135
                                      6 plays risk 1.2u (0.2u-each)
                                      Comment
                                      • veriableodds
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 08-22-17
                                        • 5086

                                        #54
                                        3-3/ +0.27/ tp count=261
                                        ytd/ 114-145-2/ -1.52u

                                        3/16
                                        --nhl
                                        tor/+113
                                        stl/+113
                                        --nba
                                        hou/+190
                                        gsw/+120
                                        4 plays risk 0.8u (0.2u-each)
                                        Comment
                                        • veriableodds
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 08-22-17
                                          • 5086

                                          #55
                                          3-1/ +0.65u/ tp count=265
                                          ytd/ 117-146-2/ -0.87u

                                          3/17
                                          --pga
                                          THE FIELD(@-150) -vs- xander schauffele
                                          1 play risk 0.2u
                                          Comment
                                          • veriableodds
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 08-22-17
                                            • 5086

                                            #56
                                            1-0/ +0.13/ tp count=266
                                            ytd/ 118/146-2/ -0.74u

                                            3/18 no plays
                                            Comment
                                            • veriableodds
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-22-17
                                              • 5086

                                              #57
                                              3/19
                                              --cbb
                                              richmond/+210
                                              s florida/+180
                                              kansas state/+210
                                              --nhl
                                              car/-155
                                              bff/+175
                                              tb/+121
                                              6 plays risk 1.2u (0.2u-each)
                                              Comment
                                              • veriableodds
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 08-22-17
                                                • 5086

                                                #58
                                                3-3/ +0.13/ tp count=272
                                                ytd/ 121-149-2/ -0.61u

                                                3/20
                                                --cbb
                                                Grambling sate/+165
                                                saint joseph's/+270
                                                Appalachian state/+270
                                                vcu/+240
                                                --nba
                                                mia/clv/O-202.5/-110
                                                5 plays risk 1u (0.2u-each)
                                                Comment
                                                • veriableodds
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 08-22-17
                                                  • 5086

                                                  #59
                                                  3-2/ +0.59u/ tp count=277
                                                  ytd/ 124-151-2/ -0.02u

                                                  3/21
                                                  --nhl
                                                  stl/+116
                                                  nyr/+125
                                                  --cbb
                                                  colorado state//+125
                                                  nc state/+185
                                                  --nba
                                                  nyn-dnv/O207.5/-110
                                                  5 plays risk 1u (0.2u-each)
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 04-04-11
                                                    • 36654

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by veriableodds
                                                    3-3/ +0.13/ tp count=272
                                                    ytd/ 121-149-2/ -0.61u

                                                    3/20
                                                    --cbb
                                                    Grambling sate/+165
                                                    saint joseph's/+270
                                                    Appalachian state/+270
                                                    vcu/+240
                                                    --nba
                                                    mia/clv/O-202.5/-110
                                                    5 plays risk 1u (0.2u-each)
                                                    Props on Grambling, Veri! Proud day for my Alma Mater.
                                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Foxx
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 05-25-11
                                                      • 5825

                                                      #61
                                                      Battling back here. Well done.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 04-04-11
                                                        • 36654

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by veriableodds
                                                        3-2/ +0.59u/ tp count=277
                                                        ytd/ 124-151-2/ -0.02u

                                                        3/21
                                                        --nhl
                                                        stl/+116
                                                        nyr/+125
                                                        --cbb
                                                        colorado state//+125
                                                        nc state/+185
                                                        --nba
                                                        nyn-dnv/O207.5/-110
                                                        5 plays risk 1u (0.2u-each)
                                                        Veri, GL on NC State. I reviewed that game expecting to land on TxTech.

                                                        More I looked at it, Tx Tech is phony. They're not exceptional, you should have every chance to win.
                                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • veriableodds
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 08-22-17
                                                          • 5086

                                                          #63
                                                          Originally posted by Foxx
                                                          Battling back here. Well done.
                                                          Thanks bro, I try.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 04-04-11
                                                            • 36654

                                                            #64
                                                            Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                            Veri, GL on NC State. I reviewed that game expecting to land on TxTech.

                                                            More I looked at it, Tx Tech is phony. They're not exceptional, you should have every chance to win.
                                                            The five wins at ACCs had me wigged out. More I looked it, I didn't think they'd be outsiders. Very nice hit for you.
                                                            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • veriableodds
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 08-22-17
                                                              • 5086

                                                              #65
                                                              Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                              Veri, GL on NC State. I reviewed that game expecting to land on TxTech.

                                                              More I looked at it, Tx Tech is phony. They're not exceptional, you should have every chance to win.
                                                              Well Chuck you nailed that analyzation down to the T pregame.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • veriableodds
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 08-22-17
                                                                • 5086

                                                                #66
                                                                4-1/ +0.83u/ tp count=282
                                                                ytd/ 128-152-2/ +0.81u

                                                                3/22
                                                                northwestern/+155
                                                                clemson/+125
                                                                2 plays risk 0.4 (0.2u-each)
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 04-04-11
                                                                  • 36654

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Originally posted by veriableodds
                                                                  4-1/ +0.83u/ tp count=282
                                                                  ytd/ 128-152-2/ +0.81u

                                                                  3/22
                                                                  northwestern/+155
                                                                  clemson/+125
                                                                  2 plays risk 0.4 (0.2u-each)
                                                                  I like Clemson. Just an FYI, 7'0" center Nicholson is Out for NWern.
                                                                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • veriableodds
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 08-22-17
                                                                    • 5086

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                    I like Clemson. Just an FYI, 7'0" center Nicholson is Out for NWern.
                                                                    Firm believer in one guy down other steps up. Its college an in waiting bench player could replace a 2-year talent pretty easily.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 04-04-11
                                                                      • 36654

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Originally posted by veriableodds
                                                                      Firm believer in one guy down other steps up. Its college an in waiting bench player could replace a 2-year talent pretty easily.
                                                                      I hear you. Just that it's hard to replace a true 7-footer.
                                                                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • veriableodds
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 08-22-17
                                                                        • 5086

                                                                        #70
                                                                        I hear that hopefully they can bring in at least a 6/2 er...lol lol Being doubtful might be a great case for the other side.
                                                                        what about these odds
                                                                        4457# MORE PLATES eaten at the Jambalaya buffet
                                                                        Chuck-150
                                                                        Veri/+170
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...