500 plays +EV theory risking 100u

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-22-24, 11:40 AM

Haha-ha. In my prime, I'd be a sizable favorite. Could pack it away with high metabolism.

Not so much anymore. I probably get to a buffet 3x per year.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-22-24, 01:53 PM

NWern- huge effort in OT.

**veriableodds** · 03-23-24, 08:09 AM

2-0/ +0.56u/ tp count=284
ytd/ 130-152-2/ +1.37u

3/23
---USA mls 2 way
seattle/-0.5-goals/+210
---nhl
tor/+118
clg/+160
tb/+115
---cbb
unc/ml/-165
5 plays risk 1u (0.2u-each)

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-23-24, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by veriableodds

2-0/ +0.56u/ tp count=284
ytd/ 130-152-2/ +1.37u

3/23
---USA mls 2 way
seattle/-0.5-goals/+210
---nhl
tor/+118
clg/+160
tb/+115
---cbb
unc/ml/-165
5 plays risk 1u (0.2u-each)

Very nice, veri. I'm gonna scout out that MichSt/NoCarol game. So much talk about that game.

**veriableodds** · 03-24-24, 08:51 AM

2-3/ -0.24u/ tp count=289
ytd/ 132-155-2/ +1.13u

3/24
---pga valspar
keith mitchell(@+180) -vs- the field
---cbb
vcu/+135
iowa/+205
yale-sd state/O129/-110
---nhl
tor/+170
5 plays risk 1u (0.2u-each)

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-24-24, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by veriableodds

2-3/ -0.24u/ tp count=289
ytd/ 132-155-2/ +1.13u

3/24
---pga valspar
keith mitchell(@+180) -vs- the field
---cbb
vcu/+135
iowa/+205
yale-sd state/O129/-110
---nhl
tor/+170
5 plays risk 1u (0.2u-each)

GL, veri. Nice to see that I'm lining up with you on VCU. Rams are very live today!

**veriableodds** · 03-25-24, 08:12 AM

2-3/ -0.15u/ tp count=294
ytd/ 134-158-2/ +0.98u

3/25
---cbb
Montana/+125
montana-arkansas state/U158/-110
2 plays risk 0.4u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 03-26-24, 08:12 AM

1-1/ -0.02/ tp count=296
ytd 135-159-2/ +0.96u

3/26
---nhl
nj/+129
vg/+125
2 plays risk 0.4u (0.2u-each)

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-26-24, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by veriableodds

1-1/ -0.02/ tp count=296
ytd 135-159-2/ +0.96u

3/26
---nhl
nj/+129
vg/+125
2 plays risk 0.4u (0.2u-each)

GL, veri. I haven't followed NHL too much this year. But I'll check those out.

**veriableodds** · 03-27-24, 07:31 AM

1-1/ +0.06 / tp count=298
ytd/ 136-160-2/ +1.02u

3/27
---cbb
*alt line* VCU/+5/+133
1 play risk 0.2u

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-27-24, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by veriableodds

1-1/ +0.06 / tp count=298
ytd/ 136-160-2/ +1.02u

3/27
---cbb
*alt line* VCU/+5/+133
1 play risk 0.2u

Hey, veri. Just my opinion, I pass on VCU/Utah today.

I said that I thought we got VCU in an excellent buy spot LAST game. I don't like the travel spot tonite. Very tough, but of course I'll be rooting for you, GL.

**veriableodds** · 03-28-24, 09:19 AM

0-1/ -0.2u/ tp count=299
ytd/ 136-161-2/ +0.82u

3/28 **notes** Mlb no great reads till 12 games in. Nhl last few days for this sport
---mlb
wsh/+140
ptt/+118
tor/+120
nyy/+137
cws/+160
---nhl
chi/+172
clg/+120
nyr/+137
lak/+135
9 plays risk 1.8u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 03-29-24, 07:40 AM

4-5/ +0.02u/ tp count=308
ytd/ 140-166-2/ +0.84u

3/29
---nba
lac-orl/O209/-110
---mlb
ptt/+116
nyy/+122
sf/+138
---cbb
*alt line*nc state/+5/+127
5 plays risk 1u (0.2u-each)

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-29-24, 07:56 AM

GL, veri.

**veriableodds** · 03-30-24, 08:54 AM

4-1/ +0.80u/ tp count=313
ytd/ 144-167-2/ +1.64u

3/30
---mlb
cws/+125
phi/+120
wsh/+156
sf/+121
nyy/+122
---nhl(last day playing)
nsh/+155
bff/+130
7 plays risk 1.4u (0.2u-each)

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-30-24, 09:19 AM

Veri, you're doing well. NCSt has been REALLY good to you, nice team.

Q: In a few sentences, explain your MLB approach to me.

Reason I ask, Baseball is such a stat-driven sport. So many modern stats to consider. I believe it's possible, but it's challenging.

I don't follow the players anymore. Sometimes, I take a follower view on MLB. If I find 2 or 3 bettors I respect, I sometimes tail if:
1) I see a Consensus on a side (or at least no divergent opinion), and
2) I can match/beat the posted $.

GL, and have a nice wkend.

**veriableodds** · 03-30-24, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Veri, you're doing well. NCSt has been REALLY good to you, nice team.

Q: In a few sentences, explain your MLB approach to me.

Reason I ask, Baseball is such a stat-driven sport. So many modern stats to consider. I believe it's possible, but it's challenging.

I don't follow the players anymore. Sometimes, I take a follower view on MLB. If I find 2 or 3 bettors I respect, I sometimes tail if:
1) I see a Consensus on a side (or at least no divergent opinion), and
2) I can match/beat the posted $.

GL, and have a nice wkend.

Sure, Chuck it's a pretty simple formula breakdown. Keep in mind I pay no homage to the starting pitcher.
-all dogs +115 to qualify
-team must have won at least 5 of the last 10 games
-rankings of the teams cannot be more than 10 apart from each other
The thing that scares the bones out of me about MLB is the 3 games series. For instance, last 2 nights cashed with nyy and here they are again same team going on third night and still over a +115 dog (suspect pitching is the culprit)

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-30-24, 09:55 AM

OK, thx, veri. Yes, a lot of ways to approach MLB.

Sometimes the burnt-out bullpen can be a factor, too. GL on your plays.

**veriableodds** · 03-31-24, 07:50 AM

3-4/ -0.01u/ tp count=320
ytd/ 147-171-2/ +1.63u

3/31
---MLB
tb/+115
phi/+120
cbs/+127
sf/+125
bst/+135
mlw/+120
ptt/+118
cws/+140
8 plays risk 1.6u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 04-01-24, 07:24 AM

5-3/ +0.64u/ tp count=328
ytd/ 152-174-2/ +2.27u

4/1
---MLB
tor/+128
cncy/+149
det/+123
3 plays risk 0.6u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 04-02-24, 04:13 AM

2-1/ +0.35u/ tp count=331
ytd/ 154-175-2/ +2.62u

4/2
---MLB
tor/+140
tx/+138
stl/+120
det/+117
laa/+130
cld-chi/O7/-120
6 plays risk 1.2u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 04-03-24, 08:28 AM

4-1-1/ +0.77u/ tp count=337
ytd/ 158-176-3/ +3.39u

4/3
---MLB
cncy/+166
stl/+135
clv/+150
det/+115
4 plays risk 0.8u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 04-04-24, 08:41 AM

2-1-1/ +0.43u
ytd/ 160-177-4/ +3.82u

4/4
---CBB
*alt line* Indiana state/-4/+105
1 play risk of 0.2u

**veriableodds** · 04-05-24, 07:22 AM

0-1/ -0.2u/ tp count=342
ytd/ 160-178-4/ +3.62u

4/5
---MLB
tx/+122
cbs/+155
tor/+145
nym/+115
4 plays risk 0.8u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 04-06-24, 08:09 AM

4-0/ +1.07u/ tp count=346
ytd/ 164-178-4/ +4.69u

4/6
---MLB
cbs/+170
clv/+147
2 plays risk 0.4u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 04-06-24, 11:40 PM

1-1/ +0.09/ tp count=348
ytd/ 165-179-4/ +4.78

4/7
---MLB
sd/+152
---PGA valero
THE FIELD(@+277) -vs- akshay bhatia
2 plays risk 0.4u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 04-08-24, 07:50 AM

0-2/ -0.4u/ tp count=350
ytd/ 165-181-4/ +4.38u

4/8
---MLB
tx/+125
cbs/+127
2 plays risk 0.4u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 04-08-24, 12:30 PM

[QUOTE=veriableodds;31297685]0-2/ -0.4u/ tp count=350
ytd/ 165-181-4/ +4.38u

re-do post #97 forgot Purdue was playing today.
0-2/ -0.4u/ tp count=350
ytd/ 165-181-4/ +4.38u

4/8
---MLB
tx/+125
cbs/+127
---CBB
*alt line* Purdue/+5/+124
3 plays risk 0.6u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 04-09-24, 09:31 AM

0-3/ -0.6u/ tp count=353
ytd/ 165-184-4/ +3.78

4/9
---MLB
stl/+118
mlw/+135
det/+117
3 plays risk 0.6u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 04-10-24, 08:04 AM

3-0/ +0.74u/ tp count=356
ytd/ 168-184-4/ +4.52u

4/10
---MLB
stl/+125
cbs/+131
mlw/+120
3 plays risk 0.6u (0.2u-each)

**veriableodds** · 04-11-24, 07:17 AM

1-2/ -0.16u/ tp count=359
ytd/ 169-186-4/ +4.36u

4/11
no plays

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-11-24, 01:43 PM

veri, you have any opinion on GoldSt@Port in NBA?

To your point, what does GoldSt have to play for? They're in the playoffs, could maybe move up one slot.

Looks like they're going to rest some guys. My question: *Is younger better?
...PORT has been playing hard late in the year. Blazers have mostly been competitive. You like the +14?

**veriableodds** · 04-11-24, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

veri, you have any opinion on GoldSt@Port in NBA?

To your point, what does GoldSt have to play for? They're in the playoffs, could maybe move up one slot.

Looks like they're going to rest some guys. My question: *Is younger better?
...PORT has been playing hard late in the year. Blazers have mostly been competitive. You like the +14?

Im pretty sure you know better than I on who is playing, and who is resting. Exactly if they are in what is the point of risking injury.
Model prediction, cause that's all I really use except double checking some key stats.
GSW 76.5%(highly skewed if they are in) points 117
PTL point 109 line is ptl+14= 7 'POV' to portland
gl Chuck

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-11-24, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Im pretty sure you know better than I on who is playing, and who is resting. Exactly if they are in what is the point of risking injury.
Model prediction, cause that's all I really use except double checking some key stats.
GSW 76.5%(highly skewed if they are in) points 117
PTL point 109 line is ptl+14= 7 'POV' to portland
gl Chuck

Thank you, Veri. I will consider PORT. GoldSt starting a very young lineup:

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-11-24, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Im pretty sure you know better than I on who is playing, and who is resting. Exactly if they are in what is the point of risking injury.
Model prediction, cause that's all I really use except double checking some key stats.
GSW 76.5%(highly skewed if they are in) points 117
PTL point 109 line is ptl+14= 7 'POV' to portland
gl Chuck

veri, you said GoldSt by EIGHT!!