500 plays +EV theory risking 100u

[veriableodds]

-each play will be risk 0.2u each, regardless of wr% or payout
-ending thread at 500 plays
-will keep record wins-vs-losses, also units +/-
-only value of 106% or higher considered (example below)
-plays in nba, ncaab, nhl, mlb
-start this 2/13
example using lines from today(using model wr% from team rankings subscription)
nhl
az/44.7%wr+ the line(varies widely multiple factors ) +138 gives 106.38
vegas/ 62%wr + the line -133(75%) = 108.5
2 more examples for ncaab
kansas/ 54.7%wr + line currently @ +150 =136.75
southern u/73.4%wr + current line @ -180(56%) = 114.5

[trytrytry]

so in simple terms you have 4 plays today 2 in nhl and 2 in ncaa hoops?

[veriableodds]

so in simple terms you have 4 plays today 2 in nhl and 2 in ncaa hoops?

Personally, I have 11 wagers today, including the above example games.. Not starting till 2/13 those are examples using today's lines to show perceived value.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good Luck, veri. I'll be watching.

At one time I ate this Coll Bask for lunch. Knew it inside and out. The game has passed me by.

Honestly, I hate the 3-pt line. When I think of coll Bask, I think about teams working the ball to big-men to get the high % shot.

Sorry, I'm just reminiscing. GL on your plays.

[veriableodds]

2/13
ncaab
Tennessee state/-2/-148

nhl
stl/+180
lak/bff/O6/-115

nba
mia/mlw/O222/-106
mnn/ptl/O214.5/-106
5 plays for 1u risk(0.2u-each)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Is Tenn St a spread play? Or a Moneyline play?

[veriableodds]

Is Tenn St a spread play? Or a Moneyline play?

-2 is an alt line readily available, I think. Current ml is -177, posted ats is -4

[veriableodds]

example here again from today's posted plays on how the value is seen
nba
mia/mlw-Model prediction spits 233 for total. Current line is 222. So thats 11 points. Math comes out to a 55% of going over.
wr%=55%+payout/-106(94%) =106.7

nhl
stl/ wr%39.7%+payout of @+180 =111.1

[veriableodds]

2/13
ncaab
Tennessee state/-2/-148

nhl
stl/+180
lak/bff/O6/-115

nba
mia/mlw/O222/-106
mnn/ptl/O214.5/-106
5 plays for 1u risk(0.2u-each)

2-3/ -0.23u / tp count=5

2/14-all money lines
cbb
xavier/+125
iupui/+190
n Kentucky/+150
ga tech/+150
s Illinois/+140
saint joseph's/+150
fresno state//+175
s carolina/auburn/O137.5/-110
---nba
nyn/+140
mia/+150
lal/+185
nyn/orl/O211.5/-110
---nhl
az/+108
13 plays risk 2.6u (0.2u-each)

[veriableodds]

5-8/ -0.27u / tp count=18
ytd/ 7-11/ -0.50u

2/15
--cbb
tarleton state/+185
utah/+115
w ill/tnn tech/O126.5/-110
--nba
mnn/ptl/O214/-110
--nhl
bff/+137
stl/+170
*alt line* phi/tor/O5.5/-138
7 plays risk 1.4u (0.2u-each)

[veriableodds]

4-3/ +0.43u / tp count=25
ytd/ 11-14/ -0.07u


2/16
--cbb
vcu/-185
1 play risk 0.2u

[veriableodds]

1-0/ +0.11/ tp count=26
ytd/ 12-14/ +0.04

--cbb
*alt line* vermont/2.5/-137
*alt line* ga state/-2.5/+121
albany/umbc/U176/-110

--nhl
*alt line* bff/mnn/O5.5/-150
*alt line* phi/nj/O5.5/-142
5 plays risk 1u (0.2u-each)

[veriableodds]

4-1/ +0.51/ tp count=31
ytd/ 16-15/ +0.55u

maybe Monday for plays

[Foxx]

Nice thread VO. Keep up the good work.

[veriableodds]

Nice thread VO. Keep up the good work.

Will certainly try. After a 100 or so, hatches will be battened down and in comes bias.

[veriableodds]

4-1/ +0.51/ tp count=31
ytd/ 16-15/ +0.55u

maybe Monday for plays

2/19
--cbb
va/+145
Nicholls state/-125
incarnate word/-135

--nhl
stl/+140
det/+124
5 plays risk 1u (0.2u-each)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good Pitino clip:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/39556235/fading-st-john-guard-anybody-rick-pitino-says

Rips into his team. Interesting point he made about consistently being on the short-end of FT attempts.

Wonder how many people saw this coming. They did lose an Exhibition game to Div II Pace.

[veriableodds]

2-3/ -0.19u/ tp count=36
ytd/ 18-18/ +0.36u

2/20
--nhl
wsh/+145
vnc/+130

--cbb
*alt line* e michigan/-1.5/+121
3 plays risk 0.6u (0.2u-each)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2-3/ -0.19u/ tp count=36
ytd/ 18-18/ +0.36u

2/20
--nhl
wsh/+145
vnc/+130

--cbb
*alt line* e michigan/-1.5/+121
3 plays risk 0.6u (0.2u-each)

GL, veri. One comment. I see that you play the Alt-line on lines close to zero.

This is something we used to debate on the old message boards. Bask bets obviously include the OT scores.

Game can never land on zero, so -1 to +1 looks like a 2-pt swing but there's no landing spot in the middle. +1.5 always felt like a tough bet, since you have to win outright or land exactly 1. +1 never felt good b/c you only push a 1-pt loss.

And so many Free Throws involved in the end-game. Man, if we could only be on the right side of the close ones. We'd be much richer.

[veriableodds]

GL, veri. One comment. I see that you play the Alt-line on lines close to zero.

This is something we used to debate on the old message boards. Bask bets obviously include the OT scores.

Game can never land on zero, so -1 to +1 looks like a 2-pt swing but there's no landing spot in the middle. +1.5 always felt like a tough bet, since you have to win outright or land exactly 1. +1 never felt good b/c you only push a 1-pt loss.

And so many Free Throws involved in the end-game. Man, if we could only be on the right side of the close ones. We'd be much richer.

It's simple most games, ''not all'' tend to fly past the number. Total or a side doesn't matter. A single point yields 11%+ more on the payout (personally I'd rather get a +ev on payout, rather than getting less than 1 back for 1 bet) Nhl I want a win on the lay# instead of a push. As far as BTCL that's a complicated prospect, also again this fella has no interest in the time, and dedication needed.

[veriableodds]

1-2/ -0.11u/ tp count=39
ytd/ 19-20/ +0.25u

2/21
--cbb
s. fl/-220
georgia/-110
ole miss/+7.5/-110
3 plays risk 0.6u (0.2u-each)

[veriableodds]

2-1/ +0.07 / tp count=42
ytd/ 21-21/ +0.32u

2/22
--cbb
le moyne/-140
texas state/+135
*alt line* siu edwardsville/-2/-130
washington state/+12.5/-110
*alt line* oregon/-2/+122

--nhl
mnt/+198
wsh/+172
stl/+102
nsh/+140
*alt line* fl-car/O5.5/-139
*alt line* tor-vg/O5.5/-148

--nba
orl-clv/O216.5/-110
12 plays risk 2.4u (0.2u-each)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL, veri.

I have to even think about Le Moyne. Think that's a newly lined team. So many teams for the oddsmaker to line.

[veriableodds]

7-5/ +0.66u / tp count=54
ytd/ 28-26/ +0.98u


2/23
--cbb
Columbia/-155
1 play risk 0.2u

[veriableodds]

0-1/ -0.2u/ tp count=55
ytd/ 28-27/ +0.78u

2/24
--cbb
unc asheville/-200
duke/+125
unc greensboro/-195
oregon/-130
w kentucky/-165
weber state/-145
Georgetown/-180

--nba
bkl-mnn/O216.5/-110

--nhl
*alt line* dll-car/O5.5/-148
9 plays risk 1.8u (0.2u-each)

[veriableodds]

1-8/ -1.49u / tp count=64
ytd/ 29-35/ -0.71u

2/25
--cbb
*alt line* quinnipiac/-2.5/+123
*alt line* cleveland state/-4/+126
--nba
dll/ind/U254/-110
cha/ptl/O213/-110
--nhl
*alt line* car/bff/O5.5/-144
5 plays risk 1u (0.2u-each)

[hawkwind]

L a m e

[JohnGalt2341]

-each play will be risk 0.2u each, regardless of wr% or payout
-ending thread at 500 plays
-will keep record wins-vs-losses, also units +/-
-only value of 106% or higher considered (example below)
-plays in nba, ncaab, nhl, mlb
-start this 2/13
example using lines from today(using model wr% from team rankings subscription)
nhl
az/44.7%wr+ the line(varies widely multiple factors ) +138 gives 106.38
vegas/ 62%wr + the line -133(75%) = 108.5
2 more examples for ncaab
kansas/ 54.7%wr + line currently @ +150 =136.75
southern u/73.4%wr + current line @ -180(56%) = 114.5

Pardon my ignorance, but what does wr mean?

[veriableodds]

1-4/ -0.62u/ tp count=69
ytd/ 30-39/ -1.33u

2/26
--nhl
dll/-160
--nba
*alt line* mem/-1/+122
mia/+7.5/-110
3 plays risk 0.6u (0.2u-each)

[veriableodds]

L a m e

I have had a terrible last 3 days agree. This a trial run, not even 100 wagers in. What could one expect??

[veriableodds]

Pardon my ignorance, but what does wr mean?

win rate % based on model #'s. Any other questions? Below I will include todays hockey line for examples.
dallas/ projected win %= 65 + the payot(-160/63%) that equals 106.

[veriableodds]

1-4/ -0.62u/ tp count=69
ytd/ 30-39/ -1.33u

2/26
--nhl
dll/-160
--nba
*alt line* mem/-1/+122
mia/+7.5/-110
3 plays risk 0.6u (0.2u-each)

1-2/ -0.22/ tp count=72
ytd/ 31-41/ -1.55u

2/27
--cbb
cincy/houston/O133/-110
--nba
bkl/orl/O213.5/-110
--nhl
clg/+100
3 plays risk 0.6u (0.2u-each)

[veriableodds]

1-2/ -0.20u/ tp count=75
ytd/ 32-43/ -1.75u

2/28**going completely unbiased, running the gauntlet. Anything showing +ev of 106 or higher. This is payout strategy, does not mean the team getting or covering the points has value. All lines are -110 except radford.**
--nba
no/+6
tor/+3
mem/+12
chi/+5
sac/+7.5
--cbb
boston u/+6.5
rhode island/+12.5
old dominion/+14.5
w carolina/-2
tulane/+2
marshall/+2
northwestern/+5.5
providence/+10.5
auburn/+7
iupui/+13
holy cross/+13.5
radford/ml/-160
winthrop/+8
coastal carolina/+9.5
belmont/+3
wichita state/+8
tulsa/+2
uic/+9
missouri state/+4.5
oklahoma/+9.5
bellarmine/+11.5
ole miss/+6
az st/+12
depaul/xav/U156.5
29 plays risk 5.8u (0.2u-each)

[Foxx]

Whoa Nelly!

[veriableodds]

Whoa Nelly!

Looking forward to throwing more money at this crazy project...lol