(Plays 3/25-3/31)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* ATLANTA Hawks +17 (1.88). 2 to win 1.76.

...Think I have a pretty good idea of what's up with this #.
...Let's just say that I think it's too fat. Feel confident that ATL will play a representative lineup.
...Celtics are 10 games up for the #1 seed. They have been selectively resting guys. I expect more opt-outs tonite.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm putting the Suns in the Winner's Circle. Very good day:

(Coll Bask: 4-0) + (NBA: 1-0) = 5-0. Week = 6-11.

Very good day: (Coll Bask: 5-0) + (NBA: 4-0) = 9-0. Week = 15-11.

...Alab wins SU. Nelson was fantastic. Played to the wire, good value for $$.
...Back to winning some NBA plays. I mentioned that I thought the Bos/Atl line was half-baked.
...Boston was +10 games in the East. They had been resting guys, and now they clinched it. Clearly had an impact on the game, that was a very bad opener.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* NIT play: 4/2 - Utah Utes +2.5 (1.94). 2 to win 1.88.

...Not that impressed by IND St. Their 31-6 SU record is flattering.
...Didn't play much of a schedule. And the Mizz Vall is down from years when they got multiple teams into the NCAAs.
...Beat an injury-depleted Cincinnati team to get here.
...Utes are the more physical team. Should have an edge on the boards.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

NBA plays - for FRI. 1* each:

*IND Pacers -3 (1.90)
*BKN Nets +5.5 (1.91).

[pimike]

Good job bud!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

NBA plays - for FRI. 1* each:

*IND Pacers -3 (1.90)
*BKN Nets +5.5 (1.91).

1* CHARLOTTE Hornets +11 (2.18). 1 to win 1.18.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* CHARLOTTE Hornets +11 (2.18). 1 to win 1.18.

1* OKC +2.5 (1.86). 1 to win .86.
...I mentioned that Phx benefited from Murray not playing last game.
...Gilg-Alex listed as Doubtful, small chance he goes. Feel like the adjustment is too big.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Some commentary on the NBA games:

1) We catch a break on BKN.
...Two Bull starters are now in doubt.

2) Feel like the IND/Lak spot is very nice.
...Pacers off a bad loss with recent revenge.
...Lakers are off 5 wins and now ~ 98% to make the playoffs.
...James/Davis are in doubt. Would not be surprised to see one of them sit. Line up to -4.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* CHARLOTTE Hornets +11 (2.18). 1 to win 1.18.

2nd unit. CHARLOTTE +13 (1.92). 1 to win .92.

[johnnyvegas13]

Chuck have u been fading the dubs every night

also I would not fade lakers right bow

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chuck have u been fading the dubs every night

also I would not fade lakers right bow

My angle on Gold St is that Curry/Thompson are well past their prime. People just haven't picked up on it.

GoldSt off two wins. I'll take my chances on them not having a 3rd straight good game.

This # is effectively the same as the game in Feb, w/ the Home Court flipped. I know CHA sux, but I view this as value.

[johnnyvegas13]

My angle on Gold St is that Curry/Thompson are well past their prime. People just haven't picked up on it.

GoldSt off two wins. I'll take my chances on them not having a 3rd straight good game.

This # is effectively the same as the game in Feb, w/ the Home Court flipped. I know CHA sux, but I view this as value.

I don’t think they r that past prime

problem w dubs is that the 4th quarter d sucks

and they cannot hold a lead

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I don’t think they r that past prime

problem w dubs is that the 4th quarter d sucks

and they cannot hold a lead

That's why they play the games.

Who you betting tonite?

[johnnyvegas13]

That's why they play the games.

Who you betting tonite?

In nba ?

lakers only play I was eying wait and see who is playing

[ChuckyTheGoat]

In nba ?

lakers only play I was eying wait and see who is playing

Sure, why not wait? That's why I posted early. If Laker guys sit, I already have the -3 locked in.

[johnnyvegas13]

Relax Chuck I know nba

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Relax Chuck I know nba

Respect your opinion. Just that being STUBBORN is an attribute of a winning player.

After the bet goes in, that's it. I'm not wavering.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

NBA plays - for FRI. 1* each:

*IND Pacers -3 (1.90)
*BKN Nets +5.5 (1.91).

This is going to look stupid. But I'm hedging back on Chi Bulls -3 (1.91). 1 to win .91.
...Effectively gives me a free-roll on the middle.
...I now see that the two Bull starters are probable. I could see the -3 creeping up again b4 tip.

[veriableodds]

Damn Chuck you're on fire. Literally best I've seen in a while. Keep up the fantastic work

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Damn Chuck you're on fire. Literally best I've seen in a while. Keep up the fantastic work

Hey, thx, Veri. Appreciate it.

Been doing my work. But I've been (mostly) running good, too. Knock on wood, will try to keep it going.

[pablo222]

John. Do not question The Goat.

Tailing these Chuck. Good luck.

[johnnyvegas13]

Brow and James both in

[ChuckyTheGoat]

John. Do not question The Goat.

Tailing these Chuck. Good luck.

Thx, Pab. Looks like a wash kind of day. Maybe I over-thought it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

NBA looks like a lot of work, and not much to show.

Will give out an UNRATED opinion on the Alab/Clem game: *Lean to the under 165.5.
...My logic ties to what I've observed.
...Alab seemed very comfortable playing at the North Carolina pace. North Carolina's shot selection was at times shockingly bad.
...Clemson plays at a pedestrian pace. Unless Alab blows them out, it will feel like a much different game.
...I regard Clemson as a good defensive team with a lot of size around the paint. But I don't view them as a good shooting team.
...Arizona GIFTED five 2h dunks on defensive breakdowns. And the big-guy even banked in a 3.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

NBA play for SAT. 2* NEW ORL Pelicans +5.5 (1.91). 2 to win 1.82.

...First off, I think the Pelicans are good value as the Home Dog. Value play.
...Plenty of motivation. They're still vying for Home Court advantage in the 4 versus 5 seeding.
...You can't tell me that Boston cares. They got over the hump by clinching. Playoffs are still too far off, they can coast for a few more games.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Very good day: (Coll Bask: 5-0) + (NBA: 4-0) = 9-0. Week = 15-11.

...Alab wins SU. Nelson was fantastic. Played to the wire, good value for $$.
...Back to winning some NBA plays. I mentioned that I thought the Bos/Atl line was half-baked.
...Boston was +10 games in the East. They had been resting guys, and now they clinched it. Clearly had an impact on the game, that was a very bad opener.

Net losing day: (Coll Bask: 0-2) + (NBA: 3-3) = 3-5. Week = 18-16.

Did have a good day on the Womens NCAA: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...n-only-p3.html

[pablo222]

NBA looks like a lot of work, and not much to show.

Will give out an UNRATED opinion on the Alab/Clem game: *Lean to the under 165.5.
...My logic ties to what I've observed.
...Alab seemed very comfortable playing at the North Carolina pace. North Carolina's shot selection was at times shockingly bad.
...Clemson plays at a pedestrian pace. Unless Alab blows them out, it will feel like a much different game.
...I regard Clemson as a good defensive team with a lot of size around the paint. But I don't view them as a good shooting team.
...Arizona GIFTED five 2h dunks on defensive breakdowns. And the big-guy even banked in a 3.

Good read. I would not be betting the over. Under looks like a good play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good read. I would not be betting the over. Under looks like a good play.

Thanks, Pab. I normally don't play Totals. That's why I qualified it as an unrated opinion.

FWIW, Clemson has gone under in each of their three NCAA games. Their FG% defense = 42% for the REgular Season, which ranks pretty high.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

NBA play for SAT. 2* NEW ORL Pelicans +5.5 (1.91). 2 to win 1.82.

...First off, I think the Pelicans are good value as the Home Dog. Value play.
...Plenty of motivation. They're still vying for Home Court advantage in the 4 versus 5 seeding.
...You can't tell me that Boston cares. They got over the hump by clinching. Playoffs are still too far off, they can coast for a few more games.

Adding a unit. NEW ORL +6 (1.97). 1 to win .97.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

NCAA - Reg Final play. 2* (N) Duke -6.5 (1.94). 2 to win 1.88.
...This is the # I want to lay. NCSt has now opened up enough eyes.
...NCSt on a run that has to feel like it's gone on forever. They've won 8 straight, including six SU Dog wins.
...Go back to the ACC tournament. Duke was one of NCSt's upset victims.
...Since that 3/12 game, Duke has only played four games (compared to 8 for NCSt). Any energy edge to Duke.

[veriableodds]

If a person spends just 18 minutes day, after 100 hours, they become better than 95% of anyone else attempt in that skill.
How 18 Minutes Can Change Everything (timeequipment.com)
2025 odds
CHUCK/-200
field' 'the world'' including billy walters/+250

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If a person spends just 18 minutes day, after 100 hours, they become better than 95% of anyone else attempt in that skill.
How 18 Minutes Can Change Everything (timeequipment.com)
2025 odds
CHUCK/-200
field' 'the world'' including billy walters/+250

Thank you, Veri! That's an excellent article. And it's very true.

Take any venture you decide to pursue. Your results are going to be some fnc(Natural Abiliity, Preparation).

Natural ability is a factor. But Sweat Equity is a bigger factor.

The 10,000 Hour rule has been out there for a while. It strikes me as very arbitrary. I think someone can see results a lot quicker than that. If 10,000 Hours = their standard for Mastery of a Skill? OK, I see that.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

3* NBA play = Memphis Grizz +13.5 (2.04). 3 to win 3.12.

...This is a game that people will ignore. And they might even knee-jerk to ORL.
...Memphis is playing out the string. Orlando is the playoff team, and they need the game (for playoff seeding).
...ORL missing two key guys today. MEM has a ton of injuries, but Kennard returns. Looks like they'll have a representative lineup.
...ORL is unrested and off a tight game last nite. And they're on the 7th game of a long home-stand.

I view ORL as being fat here. I'll grab the generous points. And I rate this play as being pretty strong.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good read. I would not be betting the over. Under looks like a good play.

Line has dipped to 163 on this one. So, I might have been on to something.

But no action for me on this game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

FYI: Getting destroyed today. MEM down by a million.