Three tips to win in the NFL. Just my opinion.

[kyhawk]

1. Figure out who is going to get the most turnovers.

2. Figure out which ref is going to cost you a game.

3. Don't bet the NFL.

Number 1 is most important.

[TheGoldenGoose]

Refs only make $200K for a 6 month season. You’ll never convince me they are not on the take.

[gauchojake]

Easiest way to beat the NFL

Scan card
Usually there are a few games that just scream THIS ONE IS SO EASY
Bet the other side

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Easiest way to beat the NFL

Scan card
Usually there are a few games that just scream THIS ONE IS SO EASY
Bet the other side

Jake, you should post in the Weekly contrarian thread. Have a big year, pal.

[gauchojake]

Jake, you should post in the Weekly contrarian thread. Have a big year, pal.

I'll try to post some plays this season. I've been busy starting a business and gambling has been on the back burner.

Went to the Rams camp today to get some early insights. The D looks good. Offensive line is a MASH unit right now. That's not a great sign.

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

You have to bet the NFL. All I want in the end is to hit + money. I guess if your losing crazy don't bet it. or just get better

[unde0087]

Easiest way to beat the NFL

Scan card
Usually there are a few games that just scream THIS ONE IS SO EASY
Bet the other side

There is an easier way jaker.

Step #1
Wake up Sunday morning

Step #2
Log into SBR forum and go to Players talk

Step #3
Scan page for Johnnies plays and fade, even if it is a large money line you can still take spread because 99% of the moneylines he takes don't even come close to covering the spread anyways.


Step #1 is the key and probably the toughest step.

[Eddy Munny]

Refs only make $200K for a 6 month season. You’ll never convince me they are not on the take.

That's pretty good money for half a year's work.

[kyhawk]

Years ago, I started a thread about just picking games by a coin flip

I got hot and started like 65 percent

Then some fool posted that he was waiting for my coin flip pick before he bet.

I ended the thread then. I didn't expect some idiot to actually bet my coin flip

This year I don't give a F and will just pick the five games and probably get the worst numbers.

I will pick an 2 early, 1 late, 1 Sunday night and one MNF.

WILL BE shocked if I am not around 50 percent.


Better than most cappers here or anywhere.

The ball bounces funny and turnovers and bad refs are the determining factor year after year.

Good luck to all that challenge my flip.

[povis]

Simple tip that you will hear often but it's not bad advice is skip first two weeks just enjoy games unless you have a solid read which teams improved or not.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Years ago, I started a thread about just picking games by a coin flip

I got hot and started like 65 percent

Then some fool posted that he was waiting for my coin flip pick before he bet.

I ended the thread then. I didn't expect some idiot to actually bet my coin flip

This year I don't give a F and will just pick the five games and probably get the worst numbers.

I will pick an 2 early, 1 late, 1 Sunday night and one MNF.

WILL BE shocked if I am not around 50 percent.


Better than most cappers here or anywhere.

The ball bounces funny and turnovers and bad refs are the determining factor year after year.

Good luck to all that challenge my flip.

Hawk, there's truth to what you say. If a guy documents his NFL picks, so often he will wind up around 50% +/- 2%.

My saying in NFL is that it's virtually impossible to crease 55%. If you think you are catching one point of line value, I think one can approach 55% ATS. Insane to think one can do better than that in NFL.

[DwightShrute]

Refs only make $200K for a 6 month season. You’ll never convince me they are not on the take.

They work around 20 hours a week. Half the year off. They have a substantial pension plan. They watch a bit of football during the week. All they have to do is understand the rules book and one day a week go out on the filed a ref. Their travel, hotels and meals are paid for.

Pretty sweet gig.

[GunShard]

A pro tip to sports betting is to not gamble everyday because you will hit a bad beat landmine. Pick your spots.
Bet futures early before anyone else to give you the best value. Let's say Chiefs 3 peat the super bowl. Bet on the Chiefs now at +600

[Eddy Munny]

A pro tip to sports betting is to not gamble everyday because you will hit a bad beat landmine. Pick your spots.
Bet futures early before anyone else to give you the best value. Let's say Chiefs 3 peat the super bowl. Bet on the Chiefs now at +600

You'll hit a bad beat landmine at some point regardless. It's unavoidable.

[biggie12]

Easiest way to beat the NFL

Scan card
Usually there are a few games that just scream THIS ONE IS SO EASY
Bet the other side

This is probably the post of the year Most informative post and all you need to win over the nfl season. Good Job jake.

[TheGoldenGoose]

Easiest way to beat the NFL
Scan card
Usually there are a few games that just scream THIS ONE IS SO EASY
Bet the other side

Indeed. Before internet, when everybody had to use a local guy, my bookie did refer to these as "the sides". There were usually 3 or 4 of these games every Sunday. He would alert me to the games where he was very, very heavy and I'd fade each $25 just for ha-ha's along with my one usual $100 wager. It worked then and I believe it still works today.

GLTA this 2024 Season.

[gauchojake]

This is probably the post of the year Most informative post and all you need to win over the nfl season. Good Job jake.

Thanks biggie.

It took a lot of research to figure that out lol

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks biggie.

It took a lot of research to figure that out lol

Jake, any insight on what that EASY GAME might be in Week One?

[VeggieDog]

Refs only make $200K for a 6 month season. You’ll never convince me they are not on the take.

And that's one (1) day a week.

[Madison]

Refs only make $200K for a 6 month season. You’ll never convince me they are not on the take.

Forgive me I'm old, but please read the book by the prosecuted NBA ref from 20-30 years ago. It's not all about betting profits but TV and advertising.

[Madison]

Easiest way to beat the NFL

Scan card
Usually there are a few games that just scream THIS ONE IS SO EASY
Bet the other side

Not exactly bad advice.

[Madison]

You'll hit a bad beat landmine at some point regardless. It's unavoidable.

Truth!! Winners survive this and live to bet another day. How does the saying go "nobody ever went broke taking a profit".

[Madison]

Download the season schedule and analysis teams "let down" spots. Doesn't matter the sport. Watch MLB teams coming off 10 game road trips and playing next day. They almost always have a letdown. Home to honey and kids. Regarding the NFL, one example from last year, My buddy loved BUFF traveling to Europe to play JAX who had been sitting there for 10 days. I begged him not but .. oh well. There are 10-12 of these a year but they are a givein.

[gauchojake]

Jake, any insight on what that EASY GAME might be in Week One?

Haven't looked at the line but Bills V Cards looks to fit the profile.

[gauchojake]

NE vs Cincinnati another one.

[Eddy Munny]

NE vs Cincinnati another one.

^^ This game is more fitting of what you described imo. The Bills/Cards game always felt like a play on the underdog to me when considering the expected improvements from Arizona versus some of the key departures Buffalo suffered.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Haven't looked at the line but Bills V Cards looks to fit the profile.

Thx, Gaucho.

[blankoblanco]

I feel like you can still make money betting the NFL if you just find a few teams that you know really, really well and only bet their games. But the restraint it takes for that is difficult, it will always be tempting to bet more games

I swear I am over 65% betting on Jags games for the past 10 years, but everything else ends up being a pure coinflip no matter how strongly I feel about it

[Headsterx]

#1 - #3… Johnny Vegas!!!
🤣

[Headsterx]

#1 - #3… Johnny Vegas!!!
🤣

Exhibit A: Lions +170
Exhibit B: Ravens +105
🤣🤣🤣

[craigpb]

I feel like you can still make money betting the NFL if you just find a few teams that you know really, really well and only bet their games. But the restraint it takes for that is difficult, it will always be tempting to bet more games.

Definitely a good approach. Goes wrong when you think you know, but don't know them as much as your favorites.

[dollarbill]

Take the Chargers tomorrow Bengals looks too easy......

[Slurry Pumper]

I would suggest that you actually watch 3 previous games for each team, look at the injury report closely, look to see who each team has played lately, grade how important the game is for each team, then wait around or hurry up to get the best number. It also helps to make your own line for each game. Remember you only have to win 55% of the time, and it's a humbling business so don't get the big head when you go on a run. Also don't think you are owed a win by the football gods. Good luck.

[Jab2413]

It also helps to make your own line for each game.

I agree 100% making your own line is a good starting point. I use about 3 sets of power ratings to come to a consensus.