REMAINDER of 2024 all sports all plays, and high volume

[veriableodds]

0-1/ -0.57u
ytd/ 88-89-2/ +5.53u

10/8 lines post#68
mlb
lad/+135/ 0.47

wnba -alt line-
cnn/mnn/O153/+110/ 0.50
plays=2
risk=0.97u

NCAAF on deck @-110 line
sd state/-1
ulm war/-6
oregon st/-4
minnesota/ucla/O40/ 0.57

NFL on deck @-110 lines
chi/-2/ 0.51
ptt/-3/ 0.56

[veriableodds]

1-1/ +0.08u
ytd/ 89-90-2/ +5.61u

10/9
MLB
clv/det/O7/-115/ 0.58
plays=1
risk=0.58u

[veriableodds]

0-1/ -0.58u
ytd/ 89-91-2/ +5.03u

10/10
MLB
kc/+139/ 0.46
plays=1
risk= 0.46u

[veriableodds]

0-1/ -0.46u
ytd/ 89-92-2/ +4.57u

10/12
NCAAF on deck @-110 line
sd state/-1/ 0.57
ulm war/-6/ 0.57
oregon st/-4/ 0.57
minnesota/ucla/O40/ 0.57

NHL ***the only ev+ with value is sj. The lak, phi plays are rank situations
lak/+130/0.45
phi/+115/ 0.46
sj/+121/ 0.50
plays=7
risk=3.69u

[veriableodds]

PGA FedEx event
B Desert Championship
odds to win after round3
m mccarty/ +170/ 1.00
h english/+500/ 0.45
k streelman/+900/ 0.27
j highsmith/+700/ 0.43
risk=2.15u

[veriableodds]

2-5/ -1.51u
ytd/ 91-97-2/ +3.06u

10/13
golf see post#75 . To be graded as a single wager

NFL on deck @-110 lines see post#71
chi/-2/ 0.51
ptt/-3/ 0.56

WNBA -Alt line- *The OG total line indicates this is not a +ev value play either
mnn/nyl/O164/+109/ 0.50

NHL -rank situational play not ev+ value play
mnn/+146/ 0.41
plays=5
risk=4.13u

[dhristov211]

Nice and easy with the Bears -2

[veriableodds]

3-2/ +0.61u
ytd/ 94-99-2/ +3.67u

10/14
NHL **mnt play is situation not ev+ value
lak/+112/ 0.51
fl/+115/ 0.50
det/+170/ 0.40
mnt/+120/ 0.45
plays=4
risk=1.86u

NCAAF on deck -ALT lines-
miami oh/-3/-140/ 0.70
tx tech/-7/+108/ 0.72

[veriableodds]

1-3/ -0.78u
ytd/ 95-102-2/ +2.89u

10/15
MLB
clv/+153/ 0.44

NHL *s next to team means rank situation play, model indicates no ev+ value in the line
fl/-154/ 0.65
vnc-s/+122/ 0.46
nj-s/+131/ 0.43
chi-s/+135/ 0.40
plays=5
risk=2.38

[veriableodds]

NFL
dnv/no/O38/+109/ 0.50/-alt line-
phi/-3/-110/ 0.66
ptt/-1/+110/ 0.57/-alt line-

[veriableodds]

1-4/ -1.31u
ytd/ 96-106-2/ +1.58

10/16
MLB
lad/nym/O7.5/-110/ 0.57

NHL starting 10/17 adding sweep, the dog system anything over +120 with risk of 0.20u-each play. Regular plays as regular ev+ value
lak/+165/ 0.42
plays=2
risk=0.99u

[ChuckyTheGoat]

NFL
dnv/no/O38/+109/ 0.50/-alt line-
phi/-3/-110/ 0.66
ptt/-1/+110/ 0.57/-alt line-

Thanks, veri. Good stuff. Mentioned that I often use your plays as a filter.

Part of me is always thinking about the NFL lines in terms of market perception:

1) Denver has played some really low-scoring games with Nix. Two rookie QBs starting.
...First off, if New Orl thought Haener was better, they'd start him! Rattler must have shown them something.
...The public sometimes views a matchup as a dead-nut Under game. Two rookie QBs, why not? When the game plays out, there will be some big plays and/or breakdowns. Points sometimes come when you least expect them.

2) I looked at that Eagle line. Their offense is healthier than they were three weeks ago.
...This # actually looks short to me. I don't think it's a tough spot. Will look at the -3.

3) Mentioned my view of the Jet/PIT line in my pick thread.
...I honestly think the -1.5 flipped to +1.5 after the Adams trade. As if a WR is going to revive the Jets.

[veriableodds]

1-1/ +0.10u
ytd/ 97-107-2/ +1.68u

10/17
NFL see post #80
dnv/no/O38/+109/ 0.50/-alt line-

MLB
nyy/clv/O7/-120/ 0.62
lad/nym/O7/-120/ 0.67

NHL * is another system play
fl/-103/ 0.57
det/+132/ 0.47
phi/sea/U6/-115/ 0.57
wsh/+132/ 0.20*
stl/+120/ 0.20*
sj/+165/ 0.20*
phi/+120/ 0.20*
plays=10
risk=4.20u

[veriableodds]

5-5/ +0.15
ytd/ 102-112-2/ +1.83u

10/18
no plays

[MalikHusam]

Loved those mlb overs

nice'n'ez

[veriableodds]

10/19
NCAAF on deck -ALT lines- post#78
miami oh/-3/-140/ 0.70
tx tech/-7/+108/ 0.72

NHL all plays 0.20
det/+160
clb/+160
mnt/+195
wsh/+172
phi/+133
stl/+133
uth/+120
clg/+133
plays=10
risk=3.02

[veriableodds]

5-5/ +0.15u
ytd/ 107-117-2/ +1.98u

10/20
NFL see post #80
phi/-3/-110/ 0.66
ptt/-1/+110/ 0.57/-alt line-
plays=2
risk=1.23

[veriableodds]

NCAAF on deck @-110/lines
Arkansas/-7/ 0.86
E Michigan/-3/ 0.72
Colorado state/-6/ 0.70

[veriableodds]

2-0/ +1.23
ytd/ 109-117-2/ +3.21u

no plays so Manana

[veriableodds]

10/22 **all plays 0.20u-each for now (nhl, nba)
NHL
mnn/+133
tb/+142
bff/+135
mnt/+190
clb/+205
det/+135
stl/+140
chi/+155
sj/+155
lak/+133
mnn/fl/O5.5/-125

NBA -alt line-
mnn/lal/O220/+104
plays=12
risk=2.4u

[veriableodds]

10/22 **all plays 0.20u-each for now (nhl, nba)
NHL
mnn/+133
tb/+142
bff/+135
mnt/+190
clb/+205
det/+135
stl/+140
chi/+155
sj/+155
lak/+133
mnn/fl/O5.5/-125

NBA -alt line-
mnn/lal/O220/+104
plays=12
risk=2.4u

1 more add 10/22. Going volume with nhl, nba for 30 days.
NBA -alt line
mnn-2.5/+112/ 0.20
10/22
plays=13
risk=2.6u

NFL on deck this week only 1 play
NFL
mnn/-3/ 0.68

[veriableodds]

6-7/ +0.28u
ytd/ 115-124-2/ +3.49u

10/23
NBA @-110 lines/ 0.20-each
mem/-3
bkl/+7.5
mlw/phi/U224
cha/hou/U230
chi/no/U226.5
plays=5
risk=1u

[veriableodds]

2-3/ -0.24u
ytd/ 117-127-2/ +3.25u

10/24
NFL post#91
mnn/-3/ 0.68

NHL *all 0.20u
fl/+133
mnn/+125
det/+140
stl/+208
uth/+125
clg/+145
plays=7
risk=1.88u

[unusialsusp5]

Just throwing a bunch of games against the wall and hoping it sticks is what this guy is doing. Knows nothing.

[MalikHusam]

Just throwing a bunch of games against the wall and hoping it sticks is what this guy is doing. Knows nothing.

only 4-2 nhl with average +140
terrible performance, just terrible

[veriableodds]

Just throwing a bunch of games against the wall and hoping it sticks is what this guy is doing. Knows nothing.

I use math for picks, they really are not my own. If you are referring to NHL, NBA it's just dabbling with league trends as dogs hit 42% of the time. Variance is alive and well, so a high-volume environment does not warrant a larger wager. Glad you like the picks you sound like a very philistine fellow

[veriableodds]

4-3/ +0.13u
ytd/ 121-130-2/ +3.38u

10/25 *just to reiterate for the next few days on what value is, will have it next to the picks.
NBA **all plays 0.20 @-110 lines
phi/tor/O219.5/ projected score 228 V=8.5 points 53.8%
ind/+5.5/ 15-vs-7 (first play or two lost betting the reverse of these #s)
cha/+5.5/ 23-vs22
ga/-2.5/ 11-vs-24
plays=4
risk=0.8u

[MalikHusam]

GA-2.5? 11vs24

Is this LA, lakers?

[veriableodds]

GA-2.5? 11vs24

Is this LA, lakers?

suppose to be GS(golden state) model shows them winning by 5 with 60.9% chance. Damn I just looked at the line it has moved away an unfavorable 2 points

[veriableodds]

3-1/ +0.34u
ytd/ 124-131-2/ +3.72u

10/26 brief reiterate next to pick
NCAAF see post#88 @-110/lines
Arkansas/-7/ 0.86/ 31-v-64
E Michigan/-3/ 0.72/ 109-v125
Colorado state/-6/ 0.70/ 35-v-117

NHL-all nhl,nba plays 0.20 **I personally don't like any of these nhl, nba picks for the day the calculator spit out.
** the # next the % = value EV+105<
phi/+126/ 48.8%/ 5
det/+133/ 45.7%/ 1
clb/+206/ 38.2%/ 12

NBA
wsh/+9.5/ 28.5%/ 30
det/+14/ 18%/ 30
chi/+9.5/ 29.5%/ 28
sa/+2/ 50.2%/ 1
phx/+3/ 46.2%/ 1
sac/+2/ 51.3%/ 3
plays=12
risk=4.08u

[veriableodds]

6-6/ +0.50u
ytd/ 130-137-2/ +4.22u

10/27 brief reiterate next to pick
**the # next to the %=value EV+105<
**all plays 0.20/-110 lines because variance is a living bitch
NBA
phi/+8/ 35.4%/ 27
bkl/+9.5/ 24.4/ 46
atl/+9/ 35.2%/ 53
mlw-v-bkl/U230.5/ projection 220/ 54.35%/ -1.2v (not a plan fit play but roll with it)
plays=4
risk=0.80u

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hey, veri:

1) Looks like you did well on Coll FB. Props!

2) I have to imagine that early-season NBA capping is very tough. Hard to gauge these teams.

3) PHI has guys sitting out. Don't mind the pick, tho. Displacement factor is probably too large in the line.

Good Luck!

[veriableodds]

3-1/ +0.35u
ytd/ 133-138-2/ +4.57u

10/28
NBA *all 0.20/@-110 lines
ind/+7
tor/+9
uth/+10.5
ptl/+12.5

NHL
clb/+220
clg/+176
plays=6
risk=1.2u

[veriableodds]

4-2/ +0.58u
ytd/ 137-140-2/ +5.15u

10/29 *all plays 0.20/ nba @-110 lines
NBA
uth/+6
gsw/+2.5

NHL
stl/+138
mnt/+140
plays=4
risk=0.80u

NCAAF 1 pick this week
northwestern/-3/+125/ 0.50 / -alt line- / 76-vs-104

[veriableodds]

**notes** going forward in NHL, NBA will try and equal weight the home/away factor
NFL this week 2 plays
lac/-3/+122/ 0.57
wsh/-3/-110/ 0.61