REMAINDER of 2024 all sports all plays, and high volume

[veriableodds]

2-3/ -0.43u
ytd/ 472-520-18/ -5.31u

4/5
NBA
mlw/mia/O213.5/-108

CBB
boise st/-135

MLB
bst/-114
atl/-220
oak/cld/U9.5/-115
plays=5
risk=1.25u

[veriableodds]

1-3-1/ -0.52u
ytd/ 473-523-19/ -5.83u

*Ok going back to the math equation based off what the thread was started for originally. Which is +ev value 105 or over. will put the equation next the picks for 2 days. This will bring higher volume but will be keeping the flat 0.25u risk each.
4/6
PGA VALERO TX OPEN
b harman (-145/ 0.70u-r, I always risk more on golf) (70%win rate + the payout -145 which is 69% equals=1.18 value of 13) -vs- the field

[veriableodds]

*notes: Not sure if the under 40% win rate projections equal value despite being +ev +105 so just going to eliminate them.
4/6 -continued
NHL
chi/+118 (48.3% + +118 =105)
nsh/-108 (57% + -108 = 110)

NBA
bkl/+3.5 (48.3% + +140 =116)
hou/+4.5 (40.5% + +170 =109)

MLB
atl/-148 (67% + -148 =112)
cnn/+134 (45.5% + +134 =106)
hou+109 (54% + +109 =112)
sdp/+125 (47.8% + +125 =107)
cld/+101 (54.5% + +101 =109)
plays=10
risk=2.95u (9 x 0.25 =2.25 + 0.70 = 2.95u)

[veriableodds]

6-3-1/ +1.09u
ytd/ 479-526-20/ -4.74u

4/7
MLB
det/+140 (46.1% + +140 =110)
lad/-162 (65.3% + -162 =105)
tx/+115 (50.8% + +115 =109)
blt/+110 (53.1% + +110 =108)
cnn/+131 (46.8% + +131 =108)
mia/nym/O7/-120 (66% + -120 =120) projection of 8 runs
tor/bst/U9/-110 (66% + -110 =126) projection of 7.85 runs
mnn/kc/U8.5/-120 (66% + -120 =120) prj 6.88 runs
plays=8
risk=2.00u

[veriableodds]

5-3/ +0.65u
ytd/ 284-529-20/ -4.09u

4/8 *notes: Depending on performance over next 2 weeks I might just eliminate road teams altogether. Have 2 games with correlated wagers today, will just divide the risk in half but count each wager separate.
NHL
bff/+166
fl/+107
nsh/+114

NBA
nop/+3
mlw/+5

MLB *correlated
nyy/+150*
nyy/det/O7/-115*
stl/+125*
stl/ptt/O6.5/-120*
lad/-164
tx/+140
cld/+145
az/-111
sfg/-115
mia/nym/O7/-115
plays=15
risk=3.25u

[veriableodds]

8-7/ +0.42u
ytd/ 292-536-20/ -3.67u

4/9 *actually just sticking with home teams with +ev over 105 value. Reduced volume and take adv. of the league trend. Never will I play a total in baseball over 7, unless it's an under with at least 1r adv.
NHL
anh/+131

MLB
ptt/+103
det/+134
sea/+115
mia/nym/O7/-120
sd/oak/U10/-105
plays=6
risk=1.50u

[MalikHusam]

Note this Dodgers loss on Tuesday.. IF they lose again today I'll Martingale them -1.5 RL for the next 2-3 games, and will continue even once my bet wins.

They are far, far too good to be on any losing streaks in the foreseeable future. The most they will lose this season is 3 straight. So I stay away today, but will get my money ready for tomorrow in case the Nats manage another upset

[veriableodds]

Note this Dodgers loss on Tuesday.. IF they lose again today I'll Martingale them -1.5 RL for the next 2-3 games, and will continue even once my bet wins.

They are far, far too good to be on any losing streaks in the foreseeable future. The most they will lose this season is 3 straight. So I stay away today, but will get my money ready for tomorrow in case the Nats manage another upset

Hope this works out, sounds like you're onto something. LAD get the win today. I used to take risks like your martingale, can't stomach it anymore. I will however try 3 parlays throughout the year if I can find a less than 3% chance of losing with payout above 5% on the ML. Last time I tried it Alabama did me in. The only sports I delve with this stuff is college more specific ncaaf, ncaab
GL

[veriableodds]

4-2/ +0.62u
ytd/ 296-538-20/ -3.05u

4/10
*no plays today: MLB ATL qualifies but I will pass on it

[veriableodds]

WTF record should be
ytd/ 496-538-20/ -3.05u (should have caught this sooner )
Only thing I got right is the units...l

[veriableodds]

4/11
NHL
clg/+113

NBA
cha/bst/O214.5/-108

MLB *correlated/ split risk, counted singular
blt/-112 *
hou/-138
sea/+115
tor/blt/U8.5/-110 *
nym/oak/U10/-110
plays=7
risk=1.75u

[veriableodds]

4-1-2/ +0.48u
ytd/ 500-539-22/ -2.57u

4/12
MLB
sdp/-168
plays=1
risk=0.25u

[veriableodds]

4/13
PGA masters winner **hedging but hoping Rory wins out
r mcllroy/-167/ 1.25ur
b dechambeau/+250/ 0.50
(r wins its +0.25u, b wins its a wash no loss)

[veriableodds]

1-0/ +0.15u
ytd/ 501-539-22/ -2.42u

4/13 *golf graded as one play **see post 293
MLB
clv/+118
nym/oak/U9/+100
plays=3
risk=2.25u

[veriableodds]

2-1/ +0.25u
ytd/ 503-540-22/ -2.17u

4/14
MLB
tor/+102
mlw/+1r/+112/ *alt line
plays=2
risk=0.50u

[veriableodds]

0-2/ -0.50u
ytd/ 503-542-22/ -2.67u

4/15
MLB
cws/+147
stl/+118
tx/-119
sdp/+128
atl/tor/U8/-115
plays=5
risk=1.25u

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Props on all the work, Veri:
1) How tight are these MLB lines? So many modern stats, have to figure most of it is baked into the #.
2) Will you be playing any NBA playoffs?

[veriableodds]

Props on all the work, Veri:
1) How tight are these MLB lines? So many modern stats, have to figure most of it is baked into the #.
2) Will you be playing any NBA playoffs?

SALUD Chuck, you caught me right b4 I was going to wake the wife and make her omelets loaded with mushrooms, and hell a bacon on the side..lol
1] Tight its rotational on the value some lines will give 17%.v, the next day you only get 7%.v. The built-in stuff so this year sticking with home teams it has the simplest long-term situation for beating league trends.
2] NBA plays? yes when the situation is correct, like tonight Memphis has 3-points value -vs- the spread (they should if they lose only be by 3-5 points. How have they been on the road as of late?) but passing playoffs just starting.
GL

[ChuckyTheGoat]

SALUD Chuck, you caught me right b4 I was going to wake the wife and make her omelets loaded with mushrooms, and hell a bacon on the side..lol
1] Tight its rotational on the value some lines will give 17%.v, the next day you only get 7%.v. The built-in stuff so this year sticking with home teams it has the simplest long-term situation for beating league trends.
2] NBA plays? yes when the situation is correct, like tonight Memphis has 3-points value -vs- the spread (they should if they lose only be by 3-5 points. How have they been on the road as of late?) but passing playoffs just starting.
GL

OK, thx, Veri. I'll take a look @Memphis.

[veriableodds]

OK, thx, Veri. I'll take a look @Memphis.

Yeah got it you may want to look at the ATS of past 10 road games with them(mem) before committing.
model prediction
mem/ 115 points
gsw/ 119 points
ML value
mem/ 36.2 + +265=132 (+27 value
gsw/ 63.8 + -300=85 (-20 value)
TOTAL prj. 235
line is 227 for over so no value at all, I would be looking for a difference of 10+ either way
GL

[veriableodds]

1-4/ -0.79u
ytd/504-546-22/ -3.46u

4/16
NBA
dll/sac/O213.5/-108

MLB *NOTES* stated b4 I will not play a TOTAL over 7 in mlb. If this under today loses I will scratch all under(s) 9 despite value.
tor/+134
tx/+115
det/mlw/U8/+105
plays=4
risk=1.00u

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Yeah got it you may want to look at the ATS of past 10 road games with them(mem) before committing.
model prediction
mem/ 115 points
gsw/ 119 points
ML value
mem/ 36.2 + +265=132 (+27 value
gsw/ 63.8 + -300=85 (-20 value)
TOTAL prj. 235
line is 227 for over so no value at all, I would be looking for a difference of 10+ either way
GL

Veri, your information was very good. Following your logic, I liked MEM.

Add in the public view on these games. GoldSt has been a name team for a long time. Logical to think they were overpriced by 3 points, just based on them being ez to back.

[spiromoney23]

Thanks for Memphis last night.

Thank you VERI much, indeed (I know I got lucky but I still got PAID)

[veriableodds]

Thanks for Memphis last night.

Thank you VERI much, indeed (I know I got lucky but I still got PAID)

Thats great. You saw something you liked, hope for continued success.

[veriableodds]

4-0/ +1.12
ytd/ 508-546-22/ -2.34u

4/17 **no plays**

[veriableodds]

4/18
MLB *notes* all plays are action, flat risk
cbs/+116
det/+125
ptt/+123
mlw/-140
plays=4
risk=1.00u

[veriableodds]

3-1/ +0.53u
ytd/ 511-547-22/ -1.81u

4/19
NHL
dll/+124

MLB
blt/+115
plays=2
risk=0.50u (0.25u-r each)

[Headsterx]

I’ve been seeing a few taking O’s today, but leading Cy Young contender, Greene, is on the mound for Reds. Taking Reds but good luck today.

[veriableodds]

1-1/ +0.04u
ytd/ 512-548-22/ -1.77u

4/20
MLB
cws/bst/U9/-105
cnn/blt/U9.5/-115
az/cbs/O7/-120
plays=3
risk=0.75u
*update Monday morning

[veriableodds]

0-3/ -0.75u *MLB notes*-eliminating unders at this point, will still play over when adv. no higher then 7
ytd/ 512-551-22/ -2.52u

4/21
NHL
dll/+130
lak/-115

NBA
dnv/-2/+120/ *alt line
plays=3
risk=0.75u

[veriableodds]

2-1/ +0.30u
ytd/ 514-552-22/ -2.22u

4/22
NBA
mnn/lal/O210.5/-108

MLB
cbs/+109
hou/-101
plays=3
risk=0.75u

[veriableodds]

2-1/ +0.27u
ytd/ 516-553-22/ -1.95u

4/23
NBA
orl/bst/O197/-108
gsw/hou/O204/-108

MLB
clv/+141
az/-136
mlw/sfg/O7/+105
plays=5
risk=1.25u

[veriableodds]

1-4/ -0.77u
ytd/ 517-557-22/ -2.72u

4/24
NHL
mnn/+140

NBA
dnv/lac/O213/-108
plays=2
risk=0.50u

[veriableodds]

1-1/ +0.10u
ytd/ 518-558-22/ -2.62u

4/25
NHL
nj/+146

NBA
lal/mlw/O205/-108

MLB
det/-118
nyy/-128
plays=4
risk=1.00u (0.25u-each)

[Igor_1965]

What's lal/mlw O205?