My picks for NCAAF, NFL, and NCAAB for the next 150 days...

**usma1992** · 01-07-25, 03:08 PM

No NBA or NCAAB bets tonight Jan 7

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-08-25, 07:43 PM

System likes Kansas... NCAAB... Knicks NBA

I apologize... I had one NBA game last night... that I forgot to post. Minnesota... thank God they covered... they canceled out my black jack losses.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-09-25, 09:22 AM

Since catching clerical error NCAAB is 10-2 I think... NBA still trucking along...

Won both bets last night.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-09-25, 09:53 AM

NCAAB Picks Jan 9

	NCAAB	2025Jan9			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING		10
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET	Actual Away	Actual Home
7:00 PM	Drexel	84	Stony Brook	58	142	6.5	134.5	Away Minus P		0	0
7:30 PM	Liberty	88	Sam Hous St	67	155	3.5	143.0	Away Minus P		0	0
8:00 PM	N Dakota St	92	Oral Roberts	67	159	7	152.5	Away Minus P		0	0

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-09-25, 10:33 AM

CFB Semi-Finals

12:00 AM	Notre Dame	20	Penn State	20		40	1.5	47				0	0
12:00 AM	Ohio State	18	Texas	21		39	6	53		Home Plus 3*		Texas	UNDER

Really don't like the Texas bet... but I will bet the Under.
Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-09-25, 11:58 AM

NBA Jan 9

Cleveland -15.5

That is a lot of points but that is what system says.

I bet it.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**BCaldwell32** · 01-09-25, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Cleveland -15.5

That is a lot of points but that is what system says.

I bet it.

Dave
MacktheTeach

Does your system account in any way for 2nd night of a back to back? Especially an intense game against OKC!!

**veriableodds** · 01-09-25, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by BCaldwell32

Does your system account in any way for 2nd night of a back to back? Especially an intense game against OKC!!

Tor/+12/+125 is a great wager

01/09/2025 05:10 PM	Toronto Raptors (8-29) Cleveland Cavaliers (32-4)	15.9% 84.1%	+700 -1050	+14½-110 -14-105	109.8 120.3	230.1	o234½-110 u235-110

**usma1992** · 01-10-25, 11:10 AM

NCAAB 3-0 last night...

Since fixing clerical error... I think I am about 12-2... or something around that. Only one game tonight. NBA lost last night. To answer Caldwell question... I can't take it into account that they played a tough game the night before. I am not sure how I would model that. It is something to think about especially in NBA.

	NCAAB	2025Jan10			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:00 PM	UCLA	68	Maryland	79	147	-4.5	137.5	Home Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-10-25, 07:27 PM

NBA picks Jan 10


	NBA	2025Jan10			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:10 PM	NEW ORLEANS	101	PHILADELPHIA	114	215	-7.5	219.5
7:10 PM	MILWAUKEE	105	ORLANDO	100	205	6	212.0
7:10 PM	GOLDEN STATE	108	INDIANA	120	228	-11	222.0
7:40 PM	OKLAHOMA CITY	115	NEW YORK	103	218	3.5	225.0	Away Minus 5*
7:40 PM	SACRAMENTO	103	BOSTON	125	228	-12	226.5
8:10 PM	WASHINGTON	110	CHICAGO	131	241	-10	243.0
9:10 PM	BROOKLYN	100	DENVER	129	229	-14	219.5	Home Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**adrenalinerush** · 01-10-25, 11:09 PM

Nice hits on NBA and NCAAB! Any NFL playoff picks? Thanks!!!

**usma1992** · 01-11-25, 05:31 AM

On fire lately... NBA 2-0 last night NCAAB 1-0..

I personally cashed out of Denver Nuggets game at a loss... got skittish. I need to start trusting the NBA system a little more.

I also only bet the OSU/Texas Under... even though the math said to take Texas... I couldn't pull the trigger on that the way OSU was playing.

On a personal note... two huge wins recently. I am moving to a much bigger and more centrally located place about two blocks from the beach and more importantly my son has agreed not to take the XBOX back to college. I can not put into words how happy I am that both of these are occurring. My son is basically on full scholarship which goes away if his academics fall behind. It has been close the last two semesters. I NEEDED this win. You think sports betting is stressful, watching your son piss away his future because of a video game is beyond stressful.

2025 is my year... College Football worked... NBA is working... NFL is a work in progress... NCAAB on fire after finding error.

Today's picks next thread. Thank you for letting me vent.

Dave

**usma1992** · 01-11-25, 05:37 AM

NCAAB Picks Jan 11 2025

	NCAAB	2025Jan11			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	Notre Dame	56	Duke	90	146	-19.5	135.5	Home Minus P
7:00 PM	Oklahoma St	67	Utah	87	154	-6.50	152.5	Home Minus P
8:00 PM	South Dakota	76	St. Thomas	97	173	-9.50	168.5	Home Minus P
10:00 PM	UCF	64	Arizona	93	157	-16.00	156.0	Home Minus P
2:00 PM	E Tenn St	76	NW State	71	147	-9.00	136.0	Away Plus 5*
4:30 PM	Incar Word	75	Hsn Christian	63	138	1.00	138.5		Under Proj

Dave
MacktheTeach

**redrum448** · 01-11-25, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

	NCAAB	2025Jan11			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	Notre Dame	56	Duke	90	146	-19.5	135.5	Home Minus P
7:00 PM	Oklahoma St	67	Utah	87	154	-6.50	152.5	Home Minus P
8:00 PM	South Dakota	76	St. Thomas	97	173	-9.50	168.5	Home Minus P
10:00 PM	UCF	64	Arizona	93	157	-16.00	156.0	Home Minus P
2:00 PM	E Tenn St	76	NW State	71	147	-9.00	136.0	Away Plus 5*
4:30 PM	Incar Word	75	Hsn Christian	63	138	1.00	138.5		Under Proj

Dave
MacktheTeach

I see East Tennessee state playing Citadel?

**usma1992** · 01-11-25, 10:00 AM

	NCAAB	2025Jan11			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	Notre Dame	56	Duke	90	146	-19.5	135.5	Home Minus P
7:00 PM	Oklahoma St	67	Utah	87	154	-6.50	152.5	Home Minus P
8:00 PM	South Dakota	76	St. Thomas	97	173	-9.50	168.5	Home Minus P
10:00 PM	UCF	64	Arizona	93	157	-16.00	156.0	Home Minus P
4:30 PM	Incar Word	75	Hsn Christian	63	138	1.00	138.5		Under Proj

Disregard ETSU... not sure why it keeps happening.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**BCaldwell32** · 01-11-25, 02:33 PM

Will you be posting the NFL today?

**daneault23** · 01-11-25, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

	NCAAB	2025Jan11			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	Notre Dame	56	Duke	90	146	-19.5	135.5	Home Minus P
7:00 PM	Oklahoma St	67	Utah	87	154	-6.50	152.5	Home Minus P
8:00 PM	South Dakota	76	St. Thomas	97	173	-9.50	168.5	Home Minus P
10:00 PM	UCF	64	Arizona	93	157	-16.00	156.0	Home Minus P
2:00 PM	E Tenn St	76	NW State	71	147	-9.00	136.0	Away Plus 5*
4:30 PM	Incar Word	75	Hsn Christian	63	138	1.00	138.5		Under Proj

Dave
MacktheTeach

Just curious why play the Incarnate Word under when your numbers show 138 and Vegas O/U is 138.5? Not much of a difference there. If anything, it looked like a play on Incarnate Word based on your numbers more than the under.

**BCaldwell32** · 01-13-25, 03:35 PM

Has anyone put Dave's picture on a milk carton, he's MIA??

**MalikHusam** · 01-13-25, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by BCaldwell32

Has anyone put Dave's picture on a milk carton, he's MIA??

What Dave is doing now is called 'real life'.

You should try it some time.

**usma1992** · 01-13-25, 04:01 PM

Sorry... took son back to college yesterday.

It turns out I saved you money... It picked Mercer and two NBA games. All three lost.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**BCaldwell32** · 01-13-25, 04:17 PM

Thanks for the dumbass comment to my joke, idiot!!

**BCaldwell32** · 01-13-25, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Sorry... took son back to college yesterday.

It turns out I saved you money... It picked Mercer and two NBA games. All three lost.

Dave
MacktheTeach

All good, was just joking anyway. Did you run any of the NFL for this weekend or tonight's game?

**usma1992** · 01-13-25, 07:40 PM

NCAAB Picks Jan 13...

NCAAB

2025Jan13

O/U& SPREADS

WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING

10

Time

AWAY TEAM

PROJ AWAY SCORE

HOME TEAM

PROJ HOME SCORE

TOTAL

VEGAS SPREAD

VEGAS O/U

SPREAD BET

O/U BET

Actual Away

Actual Home

7:30 PM

Norfolk St

87

Morgan St

69

156

9.5

154.5

Away Minus 5*

0

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-13-25, 07:41 PM

DaNeault... nice catch... I found a small hiccup on the unders. Yes, it shouldn't be betting a game within a half a point.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-13-25, 07:49 PM

NBA Jan 13 No Picks


	NBA	2025Jan13			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:40 PM	GOLDEN STATE	120	TORONTO	106	226	5.5	229.5
7:40 PM	DETROIT	105	NEW YORK	122	227	-8	224.5
8:10 PM	MEMPHIS	113	HOUSTON	116	229	-2.5	233.5
10:40 PM	MIAMI	100	LA CLIPPERS	110	210	-7.5	215.0
10:40 PM	SAN ANTONIO	110	LA LAKERS	111	221	-4	221.0

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-13-25, 07:52 PM

NFL Picks... First Week of Playoffs... I already posted before...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET	SPRD DIFFERENTIAL 11+	O/U DIFFERENTIAL 8+
4:30 PM	LACHARGERS	22	HOUSTON	18	40	3	42.5			0	0
8:00 PM	PITTSBURGH	14	BALTIMORE	34	48	-10	43.5			0	0
1:00 PM	DENVER	16	BUFFALO	30	46	-9.5	46.5			0	0
4:30 PM	GREENBAY	17	PHILADELPHIA	27	44	-4.5	45.5			0	0
8:00 PM	WASHINGTON	26	TAMPABAY	31	57	-3	50.5			0	OVER
8:00 PM	MINNESOTA	23	LARAMS	19	42	1	47.5			0	0

Any Obvervations? After the Fact. Let me know.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-13-25, 08:00 PM

NFL Picks with spread adjustment...

As the season gets longer in the tooth, I believe the spreads are more indicative of how the teams are playing. My spread differential and impact to z-scores... I have decided to break into 4 parts. Week 5-7 Spreads matter but not as much. 8-10 Spreads matter more on their z score impact. 11-13 Spreads matter even more and then 14-16 they maximize.

I know I am doing a poor job of explaining my process but I use Vegas's spreads against them. I use them to influence my data because I know the have more access to real data than I do. However, I only let them impact my algorithms at a specific rate. What I think I have learned is that rate increases over the course of the season.

However, in the playoffs that rate can't be too influential. There will be upsets. I am trying to find a certain ratio.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-13-25, 08:02 PM

My second run... curious your thoughts..

	NFL	2024Week19			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until Week 3 or 4		6	6
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET	SPRD DIFFERENTIAL 11+	O/U DIFFERENTIAL 8+
4:30 PM	LACHARGERS	21	HOUSTON	19	40	3	42.5			0	0
8:00 PM	PITTSBURGH	18	BALTIMORE	30	48	-10	43.5			0	0
1:00 PM	DENVER	19	BUFFALO	27	46	-9.5	46.5			0	0
4:30 PM	GREENBAY	19	PHILADELPHIA	26	45	-4.5	45.5			0	0
8:00 PM	WASHINGTON	27	TAMPABAY	30	57	-3	50.5			0	OVER
8:00 PM	MINNESOTA	23	LARAMS	20	43	1	47.5			0	0

Dave
MacktheTeach

**OVAKUL** · 01-13-25, 08:35 PM

Picking overs should be banned in the playoffs. Could end up as a 80% under szn

**usma1992** · 01-13-25, 08:38 PM

I am analyzing... the picks... of first round... NFL... don't jump down my throat

	NFL	2024Week19			O/U& SPREADS
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U
4:30 PM	LACHARGERS	22	HOUSTON	18	40	3	42.5
8:00 PM	PITTSBURGH	14	BALTIMORE	34	48	-10	43.5
1:00 PM	DENVER	16	BUFFALO	30	46	-9.5	46.5
4:30 PM	GREENBAY	17	PHILADELPHIA	27	44	-4.5	45.5
8:00 PM	WASHINGTON	26	TAMPABAY	31	57	-3	50.5
8:00 PM	MINNESOTA	23	LARAMS	19	42	1	47.5

Based on the numbers... if the parameter of the winning team in my system was set to 3.5. You would have won every game so far. Houston at +3 and additional 3.5 winner. Baltimore -9.5 plus an additional -3.5 winner. Buffalo -9.5 plus an additional -3.5 winner. Philly -4.5 plus additional 3.5 winner... Tampa -3 and another -3.5... Washington winner. So the bet would be the Rams.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**MalikHusam** · 01-13-25, 09:04 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

	NFL	2024Week19			O/U& SPREADS
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U
4:30 PM	LACHARGERS	22	HOUSTON	18	40	3	42.5
8:00 PM	PITTSBURGH	14	BALTIMORE	34	48	-10	43.5
1:00 PM	DENVER	16	BUFFALO	30	46	-9.5	46.5
4:30 PM	GREENBAY	17	PHILADELPHIA	27	44	-4.5	45.5
8:00 PM	WASHINGTON	26	TAMPABAY	31	57	-3	50.5
8:00 PM	MINNESOTA	23	LARAMS	19	42	1	47.5

Based on the numbers... if the parameter of the winning team in my system was set to 3.5. You would have won every game so far. Houston at +3 and additional 3.5 winner. Baltimore -9.5 plus an additional -3.5 winner. Buffalo -9.5 plus an additional -3.5 winner. Philly -4.5 plus additional 3.5 winner... Tampa -3 and another -3.5... Washington winner. So the bet would be the Rams.

Dave
MacktheTeach

Explain the bolded part please?

**usma1992** · 01-14-25, 07:20 AM

Following up... NFL Players...

If you use my projected numbers and assume the favorite has to win by the point spread and an additional 3.5, you bet the favorite. If my projected numbers come in can't handle the additional 3.5 you bet the other direction.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**OVAKUL** · 01-14-25, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

If you use my projected numbers and assume the favorite has to win by the point spread and an additional 3.5, you bet the favorite. If my projected numbers come in can't handle the additional 3.5 you bet the other direction.

Dave
MacktheTeach

Basically you add 3.5 points to every vegas spread?
Buf 30-16 Den, you make it 14 points... Vegas line less than 10 you fire on Buffalo
Bal 34-14 Pit, you make it 20 points, Vegas line less than 16 you fire on Baltimore
Min 23-19 LA, you make it 4 points, Vegas line would have to be ... Minnesota DOG (of 1 pt or more), therefore you bet the Rams since they are undervalued.

Did I get it right?

**usma1992** · 01-14-25, 02:13 PM

Yes

**usma1992** · 01-14-25, 02:13 PM

NCAAB Jan 14 Picks

	NCAAB	2025Jan14			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	Toledo	75	Akron	93	168	-7	162.5	Home Minus P
9:00 PM	Missouri	67	Florida	89	156	-10.5	153.5	Home Minus 5*
9:00 PM	Miami	57	Duke	97	154	-23	146.5	Home Minus P
12:00 AM	0	#N/A	0	#N/A	#N/A	0	0.0	#N/A	#N/A

Dave
MacktheTeach