My picks for NCAAF, NFL, and NCAAB for the next 150 days...

**usma1992** · 01-14-25, 05:10 PM

No NBA Jan 14

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-15-25, 01:09 PM

1-1-1 on NCAAB last night but... I liked the bets...

Unfortunately, Akron got way behind and ended with a push.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-15-25, 01:09 PM

Vandy and Houston tonight...

Dave
MacktheTeach

**BCaldwell32** · 01-15-25, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Unfortunately, Akron got way behind and ended with a push.

Dave
MacktheTeach

I was finally on the right side of a line move, I got Akron at 6.5 last night.

**usma1992** · 01-16-25, 01:46 PM

Struggling a little... NCAAB 0-2 last night... NBA split 1-1

However, I think the Vandy game was unfair. They shot 19% from 3 point range and South Carolina shot over 42%. They still won by 3 but didn't cover the 9.5. A couple of shots go the other way and they easily covered.

Of course, Houston lost by .5 points... which sucked.

Still, buckling down and working toward a positive result. I am not making adjustments at this time.

	NCAAB	2025Jan16			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
10:00 PM	CS Fullerton	45	UC Irvine	84	129	-20	136.0		Under 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**Brewcity** · 01-16-25, 05:49 PM

Will you be posting your numbers for nfl this weekend?

**usma1992** · 01-17-25, 11:40 AM

NFL Playoff Picks...

4:30 PM	HOUSTON	12	KANSASCITY	25	37	-9	41		0
8:00 PM	WASHINGTON	18	DETROIT	35	53	-9.5	55	Home Minus 5*	0
3:00 PM	LARAMS	13	PHILADELPHIA	28	41	-5.5	44		0
6:30 PM	BALTIMORE	23	BUFFALO	20	43	1	51.5		UNDER

So the picks above are the system picks. However, using the additional 3.5 points additive to the spread which produced a 5-0 result the first round then the picks are slightly different.

Kansas City, Detroit, Philadelphia and Buffalo are the picks using the 3.5 Additive.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-18-25, 07:33 AM

Need Input on something... If You are Following Me

There is one aspect of sports betting that I still can't get my hands around and that is the number of bets versus success rate. I know that the prevailing wisdom is that you only bet a few bets at a high probability. The problem with that is if you are using proper bankroll management (2-5%) of your roll on anyone game then you don't have much action daily.

And if a few bets go sideways than all of a sudden you don't have the law of large numbers to balance you out.

The advantage of spreading your bets at a lower success rate is that you are diversified. If you have a model that regularly hits near 60%, it is better to diversify. In addition, it is sexier or more fun. There are multiple games on a Saturday that you track rather than just a few. The disadvantage is that more of your bankroll is on the line every day.

I spent all day yesterday on college basketball model. Since I fixed the clerical error on Jan 2, I am 15-12. That isn't exactly hitting it out of the park...

The solution I came up with yesterday is is this. I have decided to use a reciprocal model approach. 1/x^3 or something like that.

After much evaluation, I am weighting the success rate 5 times and the number of games 1 time. I optimized the system last night based on that philosophy. So again I am taking 58% or whatever success rate is times 5 and then multiplying it by the amount of games I bet. So 95% success rate with only 5 games doesn't beat 59% with 300 games.

In addition, I put a floor for my success rate for each category. Home+, Away-... that the model must remain above 57% in each respective category.

Based on past history, this increased my amount of bets from about 5-6% of the games to almost 15% of the games.

Any educated comments are welcome.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-18-25, 10:20 AM

NCAAB Jan 18 Picks...

	NCAAB	2025Jan18			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	Houston	91	UCF	56	147	13	138.5	Away Minus P
1:00 PM	Kansas St	60	Kansas	88	148	-15	139.0		Over 5*
2:00 PM	Arizona St	61	Cincinnati	81	142	-9.5	133.5	Home Minus 5*
4:00 PM	Texas	68	Florida	86	154	-11	152.5	Home Minus 5*
7:00 PM	CS Fullerton	56	Lg Beach St	69	125	-4.00	139.0		Under 5*
8:00 PM	Duke	94	Boston Col	51	145	23.50	138.5	Away Minus P
3:00 PM	Central Ark	66	Jacksonville	86	152	-12.50	136.5		Over 5*
4:00 PM	Mass Lowell	74	Bryant	84	158	-4.50	164.0		Under Proj

Dave
MacktheTeach

**RM Logic** · 01-18-25, 10:55 AM

How do factor in a team like Kansas who has had 1 game go over the total and 15 go under? And their opponent is also heavily skewed to the unders.
The game pace, shooting pct, etc are so bad that Kansas cant seem to get close to hitting an over.

**BCaldwell32** · 01-18-25, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by RM Logic

How do factor in a team like Kansas who has had 1 game go over the total and 15 go under? And their opponent is also heavily skewed to the unders.
The game pace, shooting pct, etc are so bad that Kansas cant seem to get close to hitting an over.

Looks like a lock over now....hopefully

**usma1992** · 01-18-25, 03:20 PM

RM Logic... I was off by 10... so...

not exactly perfect. I also lost the Houston game. But, tTo answer your question, I have mathematical algorithms that first predict the ending score. Secondly, they tell me which games to bet. I am unbiased. Whatever my system says to do, I do. If I find my system isn't working then I of course dive in to figure out the problem.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-19-25, 09:34 AM

NCAAB 4-4 last night... I'm going to stay the course...

I lost a game by a point or two but I won the Duke game by 1.5.

	NCAAB	2025Jan19			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	Nebraska	65	Maryland	87	152	-9.5	148.0	H- 5* & H- P
12:00 PM	Illinois	78	Michigan St	74	152	-4.0	156.0
1:00 PM	Tulane	72	Temple	74	146	-4.0	150.0
1:00 PM	Rice	69	Fla Atlantic	80	149	-10.0	148.0
1:00 PM	Youngs St	83	WI-Grn Bay	63	146	7.5	145.5	Away Minus 5*
2:00 PM	Northwestern	66	Michigan	85	151	-9.5	147.5	Home Minus P
2:00 PM	Cleveland St	77	IU Indy	66	143	5.5	140.5
2:00 PM	La Salle	75	U Mass	77	152	-2.5	157.0
3:00 PM	Memphis	83	Charlotte	61	144	12.0	148.0
3:00 PM	Rob Morris	68	WI-Milwkee	78	146	-7.0	149.0
5:00 PM	TX Christian	65	Baylor	84	149	-13.0	136.5		Over 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-19-25, 11:14 AM

NBA picks Jan 19

	NBA	2025Jan19			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
3:10 PM	SAN ANTONIO	106	MIAMI	112	218	-3	219.5
6:10 PM	DENVER	115	ORLANDO	100	215	8	221.0
7:10 PM	PHILADELPHIA	100	MILWAUKEE	120	220	-12.5	223.0
7:10 PM	BROOKLYN	100	OKLAHOMA CITY	127	227	-17	216.5	Home Minus 5*
9:10 PM	CHICAGO	126	PORTLAND	110	236	7	237.5
9:10 PM	LA LAKERS	100	LA CLIPPERS	113	213	-4	214.5
9:10 PM	WASHINGTON	100	SACRAMENTO	133	233	-17	235.5

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-21-25, 06:29 PM

NCAAB Picks Jan 21

	NCAAB	2025Jan21			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	Miss State	68	Tennessee	79	147	-8.5	142.5		Over 5*
7:00 PM	Akron	98	Buffalo	68	166	12.0	160.0	Away Minus P
7:30 PM	UTSA	72	UAB	96	168	-12.5	162.0	Home Minus P
8:00 PM	UCF	65	Iowa St	93	158	-16.0	155.0	Home Minus P

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-21-25, 07:27 PM

NBA Jan 21 Picks

	NBA	2025Jan21			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	NEW YORK	123	BROOKLYN	100	223	11.5	220.0
7:40 PM	PORTLAND	101	MIAMI	118	219	-9	218.0
7:40 PM	ORLANDO	106	TORONTO	102	208	1.5	212.5
10:00 PM	PHILADELPHIA	100	DENVER	126	226	-12.5	231.0	Home Minus 5*
10:40 PM	WASHINGTON	102	LA LAKERS	124	226	-13.5	228.0

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-22-25, 07:57 AM

NCAAB 2-2 last night NBA 1-0

Can't seem to find the right mix for NCAAB. I picked Tenn over and Miss St. shot 22% from the field first half.

I'll keep working.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**Luca Bratzi** · 01-22-25, 10:32 AM

Dave, Keep banging away. You are on the right track.
Things will start going your way.
Thank you for all the hard work.
Much appreciated.

**usma1992** · 01-22-25, 12:48 PM

Sticking with my updated philosophy... NCAAB picks Jan 22

My program is using all the data and the outcomes from the last two years. I have decided to fine tune it around the philosophy that the outcome will be worth 5x times the amount of games bet... And I have raised my betting criteria to a minimum of 58%.

	NCAAB	2025Jan22			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
6:00 PM	Furman	83	VMI	61	144	8.5	143.5	Away Minus 5*
6:00 PM	Utah	57	Houston	86	143	-19.0	134.0		Over 5*
7:00 PM	Geo Wshgtn	73	U Mass	69	142	0.0	155.0		U 5* & U P
7:00 PM	Florida	89	S Carolina	57	146	11.5	146.0	Away Minus P
7:00 PM	Syracuse	64	Clemson	90	154	-14.5	141.5	Home Minus P	Over 5*
9:00 PM	Kansas St	68	Baylor	89	157	-13.0	142.0		Over 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**pabonaparte** · 01-22-25, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by Luca Bratzi

Dave, Keep banging away. You are on the right track.
Things will start going your way.
Thank you for all the hard work.
Much appreciated.

I second this sentiment. Just wanted to mention how much I appreciated Jokic triple double and a thorough ass-kicking his team delivered last night

126 DENVER
100 PHILADELPHIA

**usma1992** · 01-22-25, 04:11 PM

Appreciate the support... but I am barely delivering right now...

on college basketball. In truth, I might not be delivering... NBA... I am up but so few games.

I don't really understand why people are still following my picks. Don't get me wrong I appreciate it but I feel like I'm letting people down.

College football ... I crushed and in truth I expected basketball to follow suit but it hasn't.

Right now, I am not sure... I am offering any value. I am going to continue.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-23-25, 10:58 AM

NCAAB Picks Jan 23

	NCAAB	2025Jan23			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	NC-Wilmgton	72	Col Charlestn	78	150	-3.0	152.5		Under Proj
8:00 PM	Seattle	71	TX-Arlington	75	146	2.0	145.5	Home Plus 5*
8:00 PM	Tarleton St	60	Abl Christian	64	124	-4.0	129.5		Under Proj
9:00 PM	App State	60	Arkansas St	75	135	-7.5	137.0	Home Minus 5*
9:00 PM	Hawaii	67	UC Davis	61	128	1.0	135.0		Under Proj
9:00 PM	San Francisco	66	St Marys	78	144	-10.0	135.5	Home Minus 5*
10:00 PM	CS Bakersfld	76	CS Fullerton	59	135	4.5	143.0		Under Proj
10:00 PM	Lg Beach St	56	Cal St Nrdge	87	143	-13.0	148.5	Home Minus 5*
6:30 PM	Fla Gulf Cst	89	Bellarmine	61	150	11.5	142.0	Away Minus P

Dave
MacktheTeach

**redrum448** · 01-24-25, 05:20 AM

7-2?

**Luca Bratzi** · 01-24-25, 07:46 AM

Back on track Save. Nice job.

**usma1992** · 01-24-25, 08:35 PM

Yes 7-2... didn't do anything different...

I was able to tweak the formula to eliminate the Utah over disaster. So technically with new algorithms... 2-4 two days ago and 7-2 last night. I lost NBA game. System had Denver under 142... I didn't publish that game.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
9:00 PM	St Bonavent	57	VCU	78	135	-12.5	134.5	Home Minus 5*
7:00 PM	Wagner	60	Mercyhurst	57	117	0.0	119.0		Under Proj

Not a huge fan of betting under 119. But these are the picks.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-24-25, 08:54 PM

Already lost Mercyhurst... I never understood betting an over 160 or and under 125... there are too many other games to choose from. I will add that filter. There will be a number that it isn't statistically worth betting below. I posted games late so it shouldn't have hurt anyone.

Hopefully, VMI shows up. My nephew is there now.

Tomorrow is a big day. It will produce an ample amount of bets. Going 2-5 or 2-4 then teaming that up with 7-2 is alright but I want to see consistency.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-25-25, 11:30 AM

NCAAB Picks Jan 25 ... let's see what today brings...

I have loosened the system and it will generate about 15% of the games. I have taken each category using past data and made sure it will hit 58% or higher. Obviously, there are no guarantees. I multiple the projected win rate by the amount of possible bets to maximize the outcome. I use a reciprocal curve and I weight outcome 5-1 versus bets.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:30 PM	Georgetown	71	Providence	67	138	-1.0	140.0		Under Proj
1:00 PM	NC-Grnsboro	83	VMI	62	145	7.0	141.5	Away Minus 5*
2:00 PM	Miami (OH)	77	Akron	89	166	-7.0	157.5	Home Minus 5*
2:00 PM	Illinois St	67	Bradley	85	152	-8.5	141.5	Home Minus P
2:00 PM	Saint Louis	72	Geo Wshgtn	72	144	1.0	147.0	Home Plus 5*	Under Proj
2:30 PM	Tulane	70	Rice	67	137	0.0	141.0		Under Proj
3:00 PM	Texas St	65	Arkansas St	82	147	-9.5	151.5	Home Minus 5*
3:30 PM	Georgia	63	Florida	84	147	-11.0	147.0	Home Minus 5*
4:00 PM	James Mad	82	Georgia St	67	149	7.5	146.0	Away Minus 5*
4:00 PM	TX-Arlington	72	Abl Christian	63	135	-1.0	143.5		Under Proj
4:30 PM	Ball St	81	N Illinois	64	145	7.0	148.0	Away Minus 5*
5:00 PM	North Dakota	74	N Dakota St	97	171	-10.0	160.5	Home Minus P
6:00 PM	South Dakota	75	S Dakota St	98	173	-13.0	170.5	Home Minus P
6:00 PM	Wofford	75	Samford	86	161	-5.5	148.5		Over 5*
7:00 PM	Col Charlestn	72	Elon	74	146	-4.0	150.5		Under Proj
8:00 PM	S Mississippi	75	Louisiana	70	145	2.0	149.5		Under Proj
8:30 PM	Tennessee	67	Auburn	77	144	-5.5	139.5	Home Minus 5*
9:00 PM	Kennesaw St	68	TX El Paso	73	141	-4.5	149.0		Under Proj
9:00 PM	UCSB	79	CS Fullerton	52	131	8.5	140.5	Away Minus P
4:30 PM	Hsn Christian	76	New Orleans	69	145	2.5	147.5		Under Proj

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-25-25, 06:31 PM

NBA Jan 25

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:10 PM	UTAH	103	MEMPHIS	134	237	-11	248.0	H- 5* & H- P
10:40 PM	MILWAUKEE	104	LA CLIPPERS	108	212	-3.5	226.5		Under Proj
12:00 AM	INDIANA	117	SAN ANTONIO	111	228	2.5	229.5	Away Minus 5*

Late today... I was moving...

Dave
MacktheTeach

**BCaldwell32** · 01-25-25, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:10 PM	UTAH	103	MEMPHIS	134	237	-11	248.0	H- 5* & H- P
10:40 PM	MILWAUKEE	104	LA CLIPPERS	108	212	-3.5	226.5		Under Proj
12:00 AM	INDIANA	117	SAN ANTONIO	111	228	2.5	229.5	Away Minus 5*

Late today... I was moving...

Dave
MacktheTeach

I forget what the P mean in the H- 5* & H- P? H - 5* is Home team minus the points but what is the H - P?

**MalikHusam** · 01-26-25, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:10 PM	UTAH	103	MEMPHIS	134	237	-11	248.0	H- 5* & H- P
10:40 PM	MILWAUKEE	104	LA CLIPPERS	108	212	-3.5	226.5		Under Proj
12:00 AM	INDIANA	117	SAN ANTONIO	111	228	2.5	229.5	Away Minus 5*

Late today... I was moving...

Dave
MacktheTeach

Good shit Dave. Thanks!

**usma1992** · 01-27-25, 07:23 PM

Been Moving... Sorry NBA Jan 27

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:40 PM	MEMPHIS	118	NEW YORK	118	236	-3.5	241.5		Under 5*
8:40 PM	WASHINGTON	100	DALLAS	127	227	-12	231.5	Home Minus P
9:10 PM	MILWAUKEE	123	UTAH	100	223	9.5	237.5		Under 5*
9:40 PM	LA CLIPPERS	111	PHOENIX	103	214	2.5	224.5	Away Minus 5*
12:00 AM	0	#N/A	0	#N/A	#N/A	0	0.0	#N/A	#N/A
12:00 AM	0	#N/A	0	#N/A	#N/A	0	0.0	#N/A	#N/A
12:00 AM	0	#N/A	0	#N/A	#N/A	0	0.0	#N/A	#N/A

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-28-25, 12:11 PM

NCAAB Jan 28 Picks

	NCAAB	2025Jan28			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	Akron	100	N Illinois	60	160	16.0	154.0	Away Minus P
7:00 PM	Bowling Grn	60	Kent St	80	140	-12.5	141.0	Home Minus 5*
7:00 PM	Kentucky	70	Tennessee	82	152	-10.0	147.5		Over 5*
8:00 PM	Minnesota	61	Michigan St	80	141	-13.0	139.0	Home Minus 5*
8:00 PM	UCF	65	Kansas	91	156	-13.5	153.0	H- 5* & H- P
9:00 PM	Oklahoma	68	Texas A&M	77	145	-8.5	144.0	Home Minus 5*

Davd
MacktheTeach

**BCaldwell32** · 01-28-25, 12:22 PM

What is the difference between P and 5*

**usma1992** · 01-28-25, 05:40 PM

Two different approaches. My filtered approach and my projected numbers approach. I have maximized both approaches at this point but it allows me to fine tune both approaches separately and find what is working and what isn't. I like the way my NCAAB is shaping up.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-28-25, 05:41 PM

NBA Jan 28 Games

	NBA	2025Jan28			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	LA LAKERS	111	PHILADELPHIA	105	216	3.5	217.5
7:40 PM	HOUSTON	123	ATLANTA	107	230	6	226.5		Over 5*
10:00 PM	MILWAUKEE	118	PORTLAND	102	220	5.5	229.0
10:10 PM	UTAH	100	GOLDEN STATE	126	226	-12	229.5

Dave
MacktheTeach