My picks for NCAAF, NFL, and NCAAB for the next 150 days...

**usma1992** · 02-07-25, 11:28 AM

NBA

	NBA	2025Feb7			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:10 PM	SAN ANTONIO	117	CHARLOTTE	106	223	10.5	228.5		Under 5*
8:10 PM	TORONTO	100	OKLAHOMA CITY	129	229	-19	231.0	Home Minus 5*
10:10 PM	UTAH	106	PHOENIX	120	226	-8.5	232.5		Under 5*

6-3 Since Feb 1.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**BigDaniil** · 02-07-25, 01:26 PM

Love the Oklahoma Thunder tonight

**usma1992** · 02-08-25, 06:48 AM

Thoughts...

First, I appreciate all of you that still follow me. I said I would post from September to March and I think I have kept my word. Yes, I have missed a couple of days but so what. Life happens.

I have decided to stop betting NBA for now. I will continue to post picks and I do think it is beatable but I think Vegas has a pretty tight grip on the sport.

So I think my college football works... and proved it this year... and I think NCAAB is profitable... just trying to get it more profitable.

Can you believe Utah State was up by 24 at one point against a 5 win team and only won by 8? Crazy...

Today as most Saturdays... College Basketball will have to prove itself. I like where it sits... I guess I am 14-10 now in February because of Utah State.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-08-25, 08:11 AM

Not betting NBA any more until I can fine tune things...

I will continue to post picks if people are interested. College BBall is my concentration.

Still pissed about Utah State... they have a 24 point lead in second half.... they only have 3 losses against a 5 win team. They can't hold on to a 12.5 lead... a joke. This is where I need to step back and remember they are college kids... bet more games not less.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-08-25, 08:12 AM

NCAAB Feb 8 Picks

	NCAAB	2025Feb8			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	Tennessee	74	Oklahoma	63	137	5.5	139.0		Under Proj
2:00 PM	NC-Wilmgton	70	Drexel	71	141	3.5	135.0	Home Plus P
2:00 PM	Brown	81	Columbia	81	162	-2.0	153.5		Over 5*
2:00 PM	S Mississippi	72	Ball St	73	145	-3.0	148.0		Under Proj
3:00 PM	Providence	71	Butler	69	140	-4.0	145.0		Under Proj
3:30 PM	Rice	71	Charlotte	63	134	0.0	137.0		Under Proj
4:00 PM	Hampton	68	Northeastrn	77	145	-7.5	138.5		Over 5*
4:00 PM	Penn St	67	UCLA	79	146	-10.0	140.0		Over 5*
6:00 PM	Elon	70	Col Charlestn	75	145	-4.0	147.0		Under Proj
8:00 PM	Montana	76	N Arizona	78	154	1.5	149.5	Home Plus 5*
8:30 PM	Abl Christian	68	S Utah	67	135	1.5	139.0		Under Proj
2:00 PM	N Alabama	87	W Georgia	68	155	9.5	149.5	Away Minus 5*
4:00 PM	Southern	81	Alab A&M	69	150	7.5	145.5	Away Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**BigDaniil** · 02-08-25, 06:07 PM

I think it would be very useful to keep records not whether bet won or lost, but also by how much.

If it's something you can automate, please post the records whenever it's feasible for you. If not I can volunteer to do it manually, at least this season.

**usma1992** · 02-09-25, 01:02 PM

BigDaniil... I appreciate your input. I am really not concerned about the money right now. My account is small ... I'm only averaging $10-$20 a game... occassionally I bet up to $100 but right now that is rare. I am just trying to get it to work. I plan on betting between $100-$200 a game next fall which is a good starting point.

Based on those picks I went 6-7 not counting OT. I never count OT.

NBA I went 1-0. But I am not betting those games.

I was really pissed about outcome of some of those games yesterday. The stats just didn't go my way at all. Everything that could go wrong did and I still ended 6-7 so I guess I should be happy.

NBA picked OK City which covered....

Today it has Philly Under.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-09-25, 01:03 PM

NBA Picks Feb 9

	NBA	2025Feb9			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
1:10 PM	CHARLOTTE	104	DETROIT	124	228	-12	220.5
2:10 PM	PHILADELPHIA	111	MILWAUKEE	114	225	2.5	228.5		Under 5*
2:10 PM	TORONTO	104	HOUSTON	125	229	-9	223.5

Dave
MacktheTeach

**coolguy73739** · 02-10-25, 04:29 PM

Its hard to bet and win UNDERS in NBA.. I tried a few times and lost.. TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. Good Luck!

**usma1992** · 02-10-25, 06:20 PM

NBA... update... Picks Feb 10

Staying my course... I raised their point average to 117 and then optimized the system. I have also taken percentage wins power of 6* amount of games power of 1. I am comfortable with my improvements. I have back tested it. However, I will be changing the 117 down to 115 or 114 because NBA suddenly plays defense after the All Star Break.

	NBA	2025Feb10			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:10 PM	SAN ANTONIO	127	WASHINGTON	107	234	11	237.5		Under 5*
8:10 PM	NEW ORLEANS	101	OKLAHOMA CITY	136	237	-17	234.5	H- 5* & H- P
10:40 PM	UTAH	103	LA LAKERS	126	229	-12	236.5		Under 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-10-25, 06:25 PM

NCAAB Feb 10 Picks... Trying 4 different approaches to Picks... trying to optimize

I apologize... my picks are on next thread.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-10-25, 07:36 PM

Sorry this is late... settled in on my NCAAB model... I running it...

for the month of February in its current state. I increased the differentials on percentage to games played. I also increased baseline scoring number to 72.5. Which means each teams starts out each week with 72.5 points and based on z scores it goes up or down from there.

Two games from previous post got canceled... Only two picks tonight. Sorry for the confusion. I am running it until March 9th. Enjoy.

	NCAAB	2025Feb10			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:00 PM	SE Louisiana	71	Hsn Christian	69	140	-3.5	141.5		Under Proj
8:00 PM	NC A&T	66	Campbell	81	147	-11.5	141.5		Over 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-11-25, 08:30 AM

NCAAB Picks Feb 11... Just 1...

	NCAAB	2025Feb11			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	Central Mich	61	Kent St	76	137	-7.5	134.0	Home Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-11-25, 03:12 PM

NBA Picks Feb 11 Games

I know NBA unders are tough. I raised my starting point value for each to 118 from 115. I had it at 117 and it still seems too low. I optimized the program today based on the new start value.

	NBA	2025Feb11			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:10 PM	TORONTO	109	PHILADELPHIA	120	229	-9	225.5
7:30 PM	NEW YORK	121	INDIANA	115	236	2.5	240.0		Under 5*
8:10 PM	DETROIT	125	CHICAGO	116	241	4.5	237.0
10:00 PM	MEMPHIS	126	PHOENIX	112	238	4	244.5		Under 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-11-25, 03:20 PM

NCAAB Feb 11 Picks

	NCAAB	2025Feb11			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	Central Mich	61	Kent St	76	137	-7.5	134.0	Home Minus 5*

Dave
MackTheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-12-25, 08:23 AM

Not unhappy... Won Kent St. They were dominating most of the game. Split on NBA.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-12-25, 08:56 AM

NCAAB Picks Feb 12

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	St Bonavent	70	Rhode Island	71	141	-2.0	144.0		Under Proj
7:00 PM	La Salle	67	St Josephs	85	152	-14.0	148.0		Over 5*
8:00 PM	Xavier	73	Providence	72	145	2.0	147.0		Under Proj
8:30 PM	Washington	65	Ohio St	81	146	-11.0	144.5	Home Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-12-25, 09:32 AM

NBA Picks Feb 12

	NBA	2025Feb12			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
9:10 PM	LA LAKERS	125	UTAH	107	232	8.5	237.0		Under 5*
10:40 PM	MEMPHIS	114	LA CLIPPERS	117	231	-4	238.0		Under 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-12-25, 09:37 AM

CoolGuy...

I am taking your comment on face value. I upped my starting point total for each team to 118 or 236 total. I may go as high as 119 but we will see.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-12-25, 07:11 PM

Observations... settling in on my NCAAB and NBA....

Line movements.

1. Kent State(last night) ... I was able to get at -7... the close was -8.5. The close actually would have cost you. They should have won by double digits but messed it up.

2. Tonight's games... my two projected NCAAB under bets have moved exactly in line with my predicted scores. Which means Vegas or whoever is betting is seeing exactly what I do. I went to bet both of them just a minute ago and they were now hitting my projected score so I couldn't.

3. Tonight's game... my one over NCAAB actually moved the opposite way. I got a cheaper price so I guess we will see what the right answer is.

4. OSU game tonight stayed essentially the same.

5. NBA games have two projected unders ... both lines moved down which is encouraging. The Memphis Clippers game still made the cut based on .5 points after the line movement of -2.5 so I took so I bet it. Lakers game also made the cut by .5 points so I bet that. I might have to increase my parameter. A .5 differential on any game is too close.

If you are still out there give me feedback or encouragement or educated guidance. I'm about 150 days in of posting picks... I promised 180... I have learned a ton... and this years beta tests have proven success. NCAAF best year ever. NFL ... ok... NBA best year ever which isn't saying much. NCAAB... most improved but still not completely comfortable.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-13-25, 09:52 AM

NBA Unders crushing me... making another adjustment on NBA program...

to make it tougher on the NBA unders.

NCAAB... system went 2-2 last night but if I make adjustments they will be minimal.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-13-25, 09:52 AM

NCAAB picks

	NCAAB	2025Feb13			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	James Mad	75	GA Southern	75	150	4.0	145.0	Home Plus P
7:00 PM	NC A&T	67	Elon	79	146	-12.0	141.5		Over 5*
7:30 PM	Kennesaw St	69	LA Tech	74	143	-5.0	147.0		Under Proj
8:30 PM	TN Martin	65	SIU Edward	77	142	-6.0	138.0	Home Minus 5*
10:00 PM	Oregon St	88	Portland	63	151	13.0	145.5	Away Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-13-25, 11:33 AM

Additional NCAAB Pick Feb 13

	NCAAB	2025Feb13			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	James Mad	75	GA Southern	75	150	4.0	145.0	Home Plus P
7:00 PM	NC A&T	67	Elon	79	146	-12.0	141.5		Over 5*
7:30 PM	Kennesaw St	69	LA Tech	74	143	-5.0	147.0		Under Proj
8:30 PM	TN Martin	65	SIU Edward	77	142	-6.0	138.0	Home Minus 5*
10:00 PM	Oregon St	88	Portland	63	151	13.0	145.5	Away Minus 5*
7:30 PM	Jacksonville	87	Central Ark	69	156	10.0	137.5	Away Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-13-25, 12:02 PM

No NBA... tonight... Feb 13

I worked all last night on it. Haven't been able to fine tune very well.

I think NCAAB is turning the corner and will be ready for next year.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-14-25, 11:12 AM

Getting Frustrated...

Not sure what to think... Trying to fine tune my approach.

I optimized all categories based on 64% rate... and trying to include more... not less games.

Spend countless hours fine tuning and then go 2-4.

Oregon State was favored by 10 and lost by 12. How can I account for that.

Only pick tonight is Kent State.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**BCaldwell32** · 02-15-25, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

Not sure what to think... Trying to fine tune my approach.

I optimized all categories based on 64% rate... and trying to include more... not less games.

Spend countless hours fine tuning and then go 2-4.

Oregon State was favored by 10 and lost by 12. How can I account for that.

Only pick tonight is Kent State.

Dave
MacktheTeach

Do you ever just trust your process and see how it goes for a long period of time? When you make these changes, do you still keep track of how you would be doing if you did not make the changes? The best handicappers in the world will 100% have down swings that will be frustrating. The end goal is that after all the inevitable ups and downs to pick at that winning percentage that you desire, right?

**RM Logic** · 02-15-25, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Not sure what to think... Trying to fine tune my approach.

I optimized all categories based on 64% rate... and trying to include more... not less games.

Spend countless hours fine tuning and then go 2-4.

Oregon State was favored by 10 and lost by 12. How can I account for that.

Only pick tonight is Kent State.

Dave
MacktheTeach

It seems your system plays alot of road favorites laying too many points. Do you have your record on road favorites laying a certain amount of points? Like record laying 1-5 points, laying 6-10 points, laying more than 10 points? Just curious to see how those numbers play out.

**usma1992** · 02-15-25, 12:11 PM

BCaldwelll... I appreciate the input...

I understand where you are going with it. I probably don't have enough data to analyze fairly but I do test my algorithms backwards. I also have previous models saved so I can always do exactly what you suggested.

I looked back at just the month of February and I wasn't profitable. I am sitting around 46-47% for the month of February. That obviously sucks.

Not to get too technical but I start each team with an expected point value and use their z scores to increase or decrease that number. I increased that expected point total slightly around Feb 1st and 2nd. It didn't work.

So this morning... I decided to try it the other direction. I decreased it significantly from Feb 2 iteration.

Not only did it perform over the course of February, it performed over the course of the last 7000 games.

My profitability would sit around 60%. I don't give up easy. So here we go with Version 21.0. I look forward to see what today brings...

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-15-25, 12:27 PM

Made major change... Feb 15 Games

I lowered an important number in my program and it had a significant impact on past performance in a good way... The month of February wasn't great at all. It was 46-47% using the past algorithms. I had to make changes because I wasn't being successful. Here goes the latest version. My son is 21 today. So we are about to start the bar crawl.

	NCAAB	2025Feb15			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
3:00 PM	Grd Canyon	75	TX-Arlington	65	140	7.5	149.5		Under 5*
3:00 PM	S Mississippi	71	Louisiana	68	139	4.5	146.5		Under Proj
7:00 PM	Akron	85	Central Mich	69	154	4.5	155.0	Away Minus P
7:00 PM	UNLV	82	Fresno St	66	148	8.0	147.5	Away Minus 5*
7:00 PM	Idaho	72	E Washingtn	74	146	-2.0	150.5		Under Proj
8:00 PM	Troy	63	Arkansas St	73	136	-6.5	145.0	Home Minus 5*
8:00 PM	Princeton	70	Yale	80	150	-7.0	147.0		Over 5*
10:00 PM	Loyola Mymt	81	Portland	64	145	5.0	144.5	Away Minus 5*
10:00 PM	San Francisco	80	San Diego	60	140	13.0	150.0		Under 5*
2:00 PM	F Dickinson	65	LIU	69	134	-2.5	136.5		Under Proj
4:30 PM	Nicholls	68	SE Louisiana	67	135	-1.5	144.0		Under Proj
4:30 PM	Ste F Austin	64	NW State	62	126	-2.0	129.5		Under Proj

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-15-25, 12:44 PM

I added a few games...

Projected Under is hitting at a 58.31% rate over the past 7000 games... so there is a few of them.

	NCAAB	2025Feb15			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:30 PM	St Josephs	63	Geo Mason	66	129	-4.0	134.0		Under Proj
3:00 PM	Grd Canyon	75	TX-Arlington	65	140	7.5	149.5		Under 5*
3:00 PM	S Mississippi	71	Louisiana	68	139	4.5	146.5		Under Proj
4:45 PM	TN Tech	65	SE Missouri	75	140	-6.5	144.5		Under Proj
7:00 PM	Akron	85	Central Mich	69	154	4.5	155.0	Away Minus P
7:00 PM	UNLV	82	Fresno St	66	148	8.0	147.5	Away Minus 5*
7:00 PM	Idaho	72	E Washingtn	74	146	-2.0	150.5		Under Proj
8:00 PM	Troy	63	Arkansas St	73	136	-6.5	145.0	Home Minus 5*
8:00 PM	Princeton	70	Yale	80	150	-7.0	147.0		Over 5*
9:00 PM	Liberty	71	TX El Paso	62	133	0.0	136.5		Under Proj
10:00 PM	Loyola Mymt	81	Portland	64	145	5.0	144.5	Away Minus 5*
10:00 PM	San Francisco	80	San Diego	60	140	13.0	150.0		Under 5*
10:00 PM	Boise St	61	San Diego St	66	127	-2.0	135.5		Under Proj
11:59 PM	UC Irvine	71	Hawaii	61	132	5.0	139.0		Under Proj
2:00 PM	F Dickinson	65	LIU	69	134	-2.5	136.5		Under Proj
4:30 PM	Nicholls	68	SE Louisiana	67	135	-1.5	144.0		Under Proj
4:30 PM	Ste F Austin	64	NW State	62	126	-2.0	129.5		Under Proj

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-18-25, 10:45 PM

Here is what I am trying to do with NCAAB.

I am trying to diversify the amount of games while still providing a reasonable return. The problem occurs when a team doesn't show up or you expect to win 60% of the time.

So my new algorithm... appreciates the amount of games.... and the percentage win rate at the same time. My formula calculates the chance of the bet winning 5x... but takes into account the amount of bets 1x.

I got 3 of the 12 bets fine tuned for next iteration...

I'm close

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-19-25, 05:53 PM

My model at this point is complete for NCAAB...

I have fixed it to get to 60%... I guess I am at least a year out. Here are my picks

	NCAAB	2025Feb19			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	St Josephs	69	Geo Wshgtn	66	135	1.5	141.5		Under Proj
7:30 PM	E Carolina	66	Tulane	71	137	-2.0	141.0		Under Proj
8:00 PM	UAB	72	Rice	73	145	4.0	154.0	Home Plus P
8:00 PM	S Florida	74	UTSA	71	145	-2.5	153.0		Under Proj
9:00 PM	St Johns	77	DePaul	71	148	13.0	143.5	Home Plus P
5:00 PM	Marshall	73	Old Dominion	67	140	3.0	144.5		Under Proj
7:00 PM	TX El Paso	69	Kennesaw St	67	136	-2.5	148.0		Under Proj
7:00 PM	N Mex State	66	Jksnville St	65	131	-5.5	136.5		Under Proj
7:00 PM	Monmouth	62	Hofstra	68	130	-6.5	133.5		Under Proj
8:00 PM	Idaho	72	N Arizona	73	145	-3.5	148.5		Under Proj

Dave
MacktheTeach

**daneault23** · 02-20-25, 12:40 AM

In case anyone is wondering, starting at Marshall at Old Dominion those games are on Thursday, Feb 20 not Wednesday, Feb 19.

**usma1992** · 02-20-25, 09:19 AM

Ty...

Yes starting at Marshall... those games are today... not yesterday.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-20-25, 10:26 AM

Feb 20 NCAAB Picks


	NCAAB	2025Feb20			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
5:00 PM	Marshall	73	Old Dominion	67	140	3.0	146.5		Under Proj
7:00 PM	TX El Paso	69	Kennesaw St	67	136	-3.5	148.0		Under Proj
7:00 PM	N Mex State	66	Jksnville St	65	131	-6.0	136.0		Under Proj

Dave
MacktheTeach