My picks for NCAAF, NFL, and NCAAB for the next 150 days...

**usma1992** · 01-30-25, 11:41 AM

Trying really hard on NCAAB... can't seem to break the 53-54% level...

I will continue to try. I forgot to post but went 2-2 last night, so no big deal. NBA had no games.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**BHExchange** · 01-30-25, 03:34 PM

Utah Jazz +6?

**usma1992** · 01-31-25, 07:07 AM

Revamped NCAAB ... I think I was counting one stat twice... not by error.. Last Night

	NCAAB	2025Jan30			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	Wm & Mary	76	Campbell	74	150	0.0	153.5		Under Proj
8:00 PM	TX El Paso	69	W Kentucky	72	141	-3.0	146.0		Under Proj
8:00 PM	Liberty	77	Kennesaw St	64	141	4.0	146.0		Under Proj
10:00 PM	Pepperdine	74	San Diego	70	144	3.0	147.5		Under Proj
8:00 PM	E Kentucky	70	Lipscomb	85	155	-10.0	148.0		Over 5*

Haven't look at all the scores yet... Looks like it did well... Pisses me off... I didn't bet any of them. I was tutoring son in math.
Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-31-25, 07:21 AM

Only NBA bet last night was Cleveland

^{I bet it then cancelled because I don't fully trust NBA even though it has been decent. I plan to spend all weekend fine tuning both programs.}

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	ATLANTA	107	CLEVELAND	132	239	-10.5	239.5	H- 5* & H- P
7:10 PM	LA LAKERS	120	WASHINGTON	104	224	8.5	223.5
9:10 PM	MINNESOTA	117	UTAH	101	218	6	224.5
9:30 PM	HOUSTON	112	MEMPHIS	121	233	-5	236.5
10:10 PM	ORLANDO	107	PORTLAND	100	207	5.5	212.5

Dave
MacktheTeach

**kostasblues** · 01-31-25, 11:39 AM

How do you 'bet then cancel'?

Is your son your bookie?

**usma1992** · 01-31-25, 05:10 PM

I do it on MGM all the time... and they don't charge a fee. I got my entire bet back. Caesars hits you with about 10% penalty I think so I am not as big a fan. Of course, I shouldn't have cancelled it won.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 01-31-25, 05:10 PM

MCAAB Jan 31 No Picks..

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-01-25, 07:29 AM

Honing in on NCAAB... made some changes and upgrades.... Feb 1

I believe this is my best model of NCAAB yet. I am definitely dialing in so I guess we will see. I went 4-1 the other day... but I know that it is just one day. All my algorithms are backtested over past data.

	NCAAB	2025Feb1			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
2:00 PM	S Dakota St	91	North Dakota	73	164	6.5	158.5	Away Minus 5*
3:00 PM	Utah	79	Oklahoma St	68	147	-1.0	147.5	Away Plus 5*
3:30 PM	Vanderbilt	75	Oklahoma	75	150	-2.5	152.5		Under Proj
6:00 PM	Texas Tech	62	Houston	76	138	-10.5	128.5	Home Minus 5*
11:59 PM	CS Fullerton	58	Hawaii	74	132	-11.5	142.0		Under 5*
1:00 PM	Mass Lowell	80	Maryland BC	80	160	1.5	164.5		Under Proj
5:30 PM	Central Ark	69	N Alabama	89	158	-14.5	146.0		Over 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**Luca Bratzi** · 02-01-25, 09:42 AM

Thanks Dave. Appreciate your effort.

**Yensel** · 02-01-25, 09:45 AM

Thanks, Dave!

**usma1992** · 02-01-25, 02:11 PM

Went 0-3 on NBA last night... still incredibly hard to handicap.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-02-25, 09:20 AM

Need to Vent.... about NCAAB... any reasonable opinion ... welcomed

When I started this venture 15 years ago... I was typing in statistical data by hand then analyzing the numbers visually. Obviously, it didn't work. Fast forward... I am fully automated. All the data downloads with two minutes the results are produced.

So the difficulty now is to try and fine tune the algorithms. I want to get my program down to a singular number. Right now that number is percentage wins*6 *amount of games*1. I figured that would give me the most reasonable approach to fine tuning my system. As I fine tune... I watch that number go up then down.

Then I watched the games unfold yesterday. South Dakota State couldn't hit anything. Utah was awful. I actually bet Utah in game live a second time. Then it occurred to me. My son is a sophomore in college and I need to remember these players are college students not professional athletes(Even though they are getting paid). They are going to have bad days or outings.

So how do I offset the possibility or probability of variance. The only way I see to do it... is to increase the amount of games.

I am considering decreasing the wins*4*amount of games*1. Which means the amount of games bet will play a bigger role. I will fine tune the program around that.

I guess I am not asking an opinion on whether 4* is the right multiple... I am asking whether my thought process is correct.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**BigDaniil** · 02-02-25, 12:40 PM

If you can backtest your model easily... you should be ... since it's all automated..

Check if you are directionally correct at least 46-47% of the time, if yes, backtest for selling 2-3 points on every bet so you can get +110 or better every time.

If college kids - similar to women pro athletes - can be counted as 'less dependable' or 'more volatile' then betting vegas spreads makes no sense, you're better off taking worse number of points (or totals) and taking biggest available price, in that direction

**veriableodds** · 02-03-25, 09:19 AM

U1992, here is some advice that can save you years. Stick with league trends, home teams, and niche plays. Yes, you will have to give up plays and it's a confounding transition. If you don't like leaving plays on the table your only option would be drastically reduced risk to play the volume.
-EXAMPLE this year NHL home favs are almost 61% strait up
GL

**usma1992** · 02-03-25, 08:10 PM

Thank you for the input... Only NCAAB bet tonight is Kansas

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-03-25, 08:11 PM

Kansas

	NCAAB	2025Feb3			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
9:00 PM	Iowa St	70	Kansas	76	146	-3.0	146.0	Home Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-03-25, 08:29 PM

NBA... picks

	NBA	2025Feb3			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:40 PM	HOUSTON	110	NEW YORK	115	225	-6	224.0	Away Plus P
9:10 PM	NEW ORLEANS	109	DENVER	128	237	-11	241.0	Home Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-04-25, 07:05 AM

Rare 3-0 night... 2-0 NBA... 1-0 NCAAB

Looking at my NCAAB system... I will have to update the picks. It has been revamped a few times. The changes have been more on the filtering side.

Let's see what February brings... I think I am going to let it ride this month. Minor tweaks at the most. Despite a tougher season than I anticipated... I like where I ended up. Ready for next year.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-04-25, 10:06 AM

NCAAB Feb 4 Picks

	NCAAB	2025Feb4			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	Saint Louis	75	U Mass	72	147	1.5	151.0		Under Proj
7:00 PM	Vanderbilt	67	Florida	84	151	-11.5	155.0	Home Minus 5*
9:00 PM	Baylor	70	Texas Tech	81	151	-7.5	141.0	Home Minus 5*
9:00 PM	GA Tech	67	Clemson	82	149	-12.5	137.0		Over 5*
6:30 PM	TX Southern	90	Ark Pine Bl	72	162	10.0	158.0	Away Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-04-25, 02:59 PM

Decided to Look at Just this Year starting Nov 21st...

Two Categories

(Filtered)
Over 59 bets 34 Wins 57.63%
Under 54 bets 30 Wins 55.56%
Away- 41 bets 24 Wins 58.54%
Home- 53 bets 29 Wins 54.72%
Away+ 11 bets 11 Wins 100%
Home+ 1 bet 0 Wins 0%

Total Bets 219
Overall 58.45% Net Units 37

Projected
Over 1 bet 1 Win 100%
Under 108 bets 71 Wins 65.74%
Away- 1 bet 1 Win 100%
Home-53 bets 33 Wins 62.26%
Away+ No bets
Home+ 31 bets 20 Wins 64.52%

Total Bets 194
Overall 64.95% Net Units 58

Dave
MacktheTeach

**daneault23** · 02-04-25, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Two Categories

(Filtered)
Over 59 bets 34 Wins 57.63%
Under 54 bets 30 Wins 55.56%
Away- 41 bets 24 Wins 58.54%
Home- 53 bets 29 Wins 54.72%
Away+ 11 bets 11 Wins 100%
Home+ 1 bet 0 Wins 0%

Total Bets 219
Overall 58.45% Net Units 37

Projected
Over 1 bet 1 Win 100%
Under 108 bets 71 Wins 65.74%
Away- 1 bet 1 Win 100%
Home-53 bets 33 Wins 62.26%
Away+ No bets
Home+ 31 bets 20 Wins 64.52%

Total Bets 194
Overall 64.95% Net Units 58

Dave
MacktheTeach

Those numbers are pretty different compared to what bets you posted in this thread so what is that saying? You've made updates and now backtesting gives you those results?

**usma1992** · 02-04-25, 09:16 PM

Yes... but I am back testing it over multiple years. The current algorithms yield these results. I am trying to come up with a fair solution. I have altered my algorithms multiple times but I have learned and I will continue to learn.

Are these results inflated? I am taking the same approach I always take. I try to upgrade my algorithms and see how they work in past history. Let's see how current algorithms look during month of Feb.

My system is a work in progress... but I am getting close. I look forward to seeing what February brings.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-05-25, 07:03 AM

Interesting night... NCAAB

First, I take the GTech game as a loss. I don't program for OT. Since I needed OT to win the Over, I consider it a loss when I come to my programming.

Second Texas Southern had 13 more shot attempts and lost by one. What an awful effort!!!

Again, because they are college kids, I have decided to open the system up to try and spread the variance.

Of course, I lost the Florida game on a meaningless basketball with less than 5 seconds to go.

That's college basketball.

Danuealt... I am trying hard to get my program to a consistently profitable level. Those stats are with the current algorithms. I know people are going to criticize me for that. I got crucified last year by specific individuals or individual for that very thing.

I even got challenged to a football contest.. I wiped the floor with him. Primarily, because I am constantly analyzing games to see where I am strong and weak. Since Feb 1... I believe I am 8-6. Yes, that counts GA Tech as a loss.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**MOBIL19** · 02-05-25, 12:34 PM

Are you able to scrape the info where you collect scores at several points of the game (Halftime, or 3 minutes before end of 2nd half/4th quarter, which would exclude the weird game endings)?

Would be fun to play around with a rating system where teams are judged not just on final scores but also on things like 'time with lead in the game' or 'time with lead in 4th Q'

**usma1992** · 02-05-25, 01:58 PM

NCAAB Picks Feb 5

	NCAAB	2025Feb5			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	Geo Mason	66	Geo Wshgtn	63	129	2.0	131.0		Under Proj
7:00 PM	Lipscomb	86	W Georgia	65	151	12.0	146.0	Away Minus 5*
7:30 PM	Queens	86	Central Ark	73	159	8.0	146.0	Away Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**MOBIL19** · 02-05-25, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

	NCAAB	2025Feb5			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	Geo Mason	66	Geo Wshgtn	63	129	2.0	131.0		Under Proj
7:00 PM	Lipscomb	86	W Georgia	65	151	12.0	146.0	Away Minus 5*
7:30 PM	Queens	86	Central Ark	73	159	8.0	146.0	Away Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

As always, thanks for sharing

**usma1992** · 02-05-25, 06:19 PM

NBA Picks Feb 5th...

A little tough around the trade deadline. Last night it picked Dallas right after the trade. I did bet it and of course lost. I think NBA will continue to be a challenge but I am doing better this year on it than ever before.

	NBA	2025Feb5			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:40 PM	MIAMI	110	PHILADELPHIA	109	219	-1.5	220.0	Away Plus P
9:10 PM	NEW ORLEANS	109	DENVER	128	237	-10.5	239.5	Home Minus 5*
9:40 PM	PHOENIX	100	OKLAHOMA CITY	125	225	-13	229.5	Home Minus P

Dave
MacktheTeach

**leovegas** · 02-06-25, 02:02 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

A little tough around the trade deadline. Last night it picked Dallas right after the trade. I did bet it and of course lost. I think NBA will continue to be a challenge but I am doing better this year on it than ever before.

	NBA	2025Feb5			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:40 PM	MIAMI	110	PHILADELPHIA	109	219	-1.5	220.0	Away Plus P
9:10 PM	NEW ORLEANS	109	DENVER	128	237	-10.5	239.5	Home Minus 5*
9:40 PM	PHOENIX	100	OKLAHOMA CITY	125	225	-13	229.5	Home Minus P

Dave
MacktheTeach

Brilliant! 3-0, right?

**usma1992** · 02-06-25, 09:12 AM

Solid night 5-1 ... NCAAB 2-1... NBA 3-0

I only lost one game by 3 points and the rest were blow outs. System is dialing in. Took a long time to get here. I ended up cancelling my Oklahoma City bet live because I thought it was going right. I am going to stop doubting my bets...

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-06-25, 11:08 AM

NCAAB Feb 6 Picks

I'm liking the changes I made... It is producing more games which is helping eliminate some of the risk. Going to keep the 4 to 1 ratio between outcome and games bet.

	NCAAB	2025Feb6			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	Elon	66	Campbell	69	135	-1.5	139.5		Under Proj
10:00 PM	CS Fullerton	55	Cal St Nrdge	85	140	-16.0	154.5		Under 5*
10:00 PM	UC Riverside	66	UCSD	79	145	-11.5	140.0		Over 5*
6:00 PM	Albany	71	Bryant	87	158	-12.0	158.0	Home Minus 5*
7:00 PM	E Kentucky	72	Fla Gulf Cst	83	155	-6.0	149.0		Over 5*
7:00 PM	Jacksonville	87	Stetson	68	155	9.5	145.5	Away Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-06-25, 11:19 AM

NBA Feb 6 Picks

	NBA	2025Feb6			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	DALLAS	103	BOSTON	122	225	-10	230.0
8:10 PM	HOUSTON	111	MINNESOTA	106	217	1.5	214.5	Away Minus 5*
9:10 PM	ORLANDO	105	DENVER	114	219	-7	220.0
10:00 PM	GOLDEN STATE	109	LA LAKERS	114	223	-7	221.5	Away Plus P
10:10 PM	SACRAMENTO	115	PORTLAND	113	228	-1	230.0	Away Plus P
10:40 PM	INDIANA	106	LA CLIPPERS	115	221	-5.5	228.5

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-06-25, 07:42 PM

I know NBA went 3-0 last night but... I altering the algorithms slightly...New Picks

I made some pretty significant improvements or at least I hope they are improvements. I am not convinced I will have NBA really fine tuned for a couple of more years. But, I upgraded despite being profitable.

Tonight's picks

	NBA	2025Feb6			O/U& SPREADS			No Bets Until 5 Games In
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	DALLAS	103	BOSTON	122	225	-10	230.0
8:10 PM	HOUSTON	111	MINNESOTA	106	217	1.5	214.5	Away Minus 5*
9:10 PM	ORLANDO	105	DENVER	114	219	-7	220.0
10:00 PM	GOLDEN STATE	109	LA LAKERS	114	223	-7	221.5
10:10 PM	SACRAMENTO	115	PORTLAND	113	228	-1	230.0
10:40 PM	INDIANA	106	LA CLIPPERS	115	221	-5.5	228.5		Under 5*

It dumped the Golden State game and Sacramento game but added Indiana under.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-07-25, 05:18 AM

Starting to believe... in college bball.. easily could have gone 5-1... went 4-2

But I am winning games by 10+ points and losing games by .5.

This season was a grow up season ... beta test for sure but it seems to be working. NBA went 0-2 ... one game I lost by 1.5 points. NBA is always going to be hard but it seems to be doing ok also. Two more years and I think it will be ready.

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-07-25, 08:22 AM

NCAAB Feb 7 Picks

	NCAAB	2025Feb7			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	VCU	76	Dayton	64	140	1.5	140.0
7:00 PM	Princeton	84	U Penn	69	153	7.0	145.0
7:00 PM	USC	67	Purdue	80	147	-13.5	145.5
8:00 PM	St Johns	73	Connecticut	74	147	-3.5	141.0
9:00 PM	Saint Louis	69	St Josephs	75	144	-6.0	145.0
9:00 PM	San Jose St	64	Boise St	78	142	-13.5	141.0
10:00 PM	Utah St	90	Fresno St	67	157	12.5	155.0	Away Minus 5*

Dave
MacktheTeach

**usma1992** · 02-07-25, 10:57 AM

Added Pick

	NCAAB	2025Feb7			O/U& SPREADS			WAIT UNTIL THANKSGIVING
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	VCU	75	Dayton	65	140	-1.0	139.5	Away Plus 5*
10:00 PM	Utah St	90	Fresno St	67	157	12.5	155.0	Away Minus 5*

13-9 so far in February... 59%
Dave
MacktheTeach