Getch's Tracking and Info Thread

**Getch13** · 11-12-24, 04:02 PM

Loser

**veriableodds** · 11-12-24, 04:04 PM

GL GETCHER

**Getch13** · 11-12-24, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

GL GETCHER

Thanks V,
This is more of a thread to share some of the info I track down, and I wanted one place to keep track of all that.

**Getch13** · 11-12-24, 04:18 PM

Sneakiest Defensive Prop of the Day

Rudy Gobert OVER 1.5 Blocks (-130) vs #Trailblazers Loser

Over in 3 straight vs Portland including a game just 4 days ago against them where he racked up 3. P

Portland is wildly inefficient near the rim, taking the most FGA in the restricted area and most FGA <5Ft from this season - YET they are posting the leagues 5th worst FG% from those zones as well.

They also play a lot of ball in the paint with the 5th most paint touches per game this season.

Clearly, this is why Gobert thrives against them, seeing over 20+ rebound chances in 8 straight vs Portland including 12/L13 H2H.

And you have to remember, securing the ball off a block counts as a rebound here.

With 20+ rebound chances, Gobert is over this number in 4/5 games this season including 4 straight.

Portland is allowing the 5th most blocks to centers per game (3.34) and the MOST blocks total. Last season was no different where they finished 2nd in blocks allowed.

In the first match of the in-season tournament here, I think we see Gobert play solid minutes and rack up multiple opportunities for blocks.

This is a guy who has racked up multiple DPOY awards and I think he puts himself back in that conversation with a show tonight.

**Getch13** · 11-12-24, 04:30 PM

Winner - Loser

**Getch13** · 11-12-24, 04:35 PM

Prophet Props
Winner
1.25u - Paul George o17.5 P (-125) Analysis Below
This will be PGs 4th game back and we saw him play 33 minutes last game with 18 FGA. We have to believe that’s the kind of role he will maintain, at least until Maxey returns

It’s a new team. I get it. But last season when George played 30+ minutes with 14 or more FGA he averaged 25 ppg and cleared this line 88%% of games played.

Also, the Knicks rank LAST in PPG allowed to SFs. Embiid should take not only attention, but also some pressure of PG here

Projection: 22 Points

**Getch13** · 11-12-24, 04:40 PM

Prophet Props POTD

2.5u - DeMar DeRozan u4.5 Assists (-125) at Bet365Analysis Below

DeRozan is under this line in 7 of the first 10 games to start this season. He’s averaging 4 APG on 6.3 potential assists. While I do expect his potentials to tick up I also see that conversion % dropping.
Also worth noting is DeMar has only 1 game with more than 7 Potential Assists this season. Last season when he had 7 of fewer potentials he cleared this line in just 32% of games averaging 4 per game. I know it’s a new team and new system, but it’s worth noting.
Projection: 3.5 Assists this line has bumped since I played it live on stream. I would still play the current line to win

**Getch13** · 11-12-24, 05:14 PM

Winner

**Getch13** · 11-12-24, 05:20 PM

Anthony Edwards Over 31.5 Pts + Reb (-127) Loser

AMAZING MATCHUP - Edwards has cleared this line in 6/10 games this season putting up a very solid 20.9 field goal attempts alongside 9.8 rebound chances..

He now plays the Trail Blazers who allow the MOST points to shooting guards this season and have allowed an impressive 19/23 shooting guards to clear their respective PA lines..

Edwards has also cleared this line in 3/4 recent matchups against the Blazers going for 45, 40, 17 and 43 PA. Notably this 43 pts + ast game was just 4 days ago

**Getch13** · 11-12-24, 05:21 PM

Loser

**Getch13** · 11-12-24, 05:26 PM

Loser

**Getch13** · 11-12-24, 05:27 PM

Loser

**Getch13** · 11-12-24, 05:34 PM

Morgan Rielly o0.5 Points Loser

Analysis —The PP1 promotion for Rielly with Matthews out has been huge as he’s recorded 6 points in 3 games, all on the powerplay. He has 1+ point(s) in 85% of his L20 at HOME. OTT is middle of the pack in both penalty minutes and PK%

**Headsterx** · 11-12-24, 06:07 PM

Thanks Getch! I like PRA o20.5 for OG Anunoby.

**Headsterx** · 11-12-24, 08:37 PM

This is a gold mine of info! Keep it up so we can get this pinned!

**Headsterx** · 11-12-24, 09:09 PM

About to do Gobert 2+ blocked shots -154

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 10:05 AM

Billy Carezzi His recorded keeping not mine. ??

POTD RECORD: 85-62
Last POTD: Jalen Duren O9.5 Rebs @1.86 ✅
Todays POTD: Trey Murphy O4.5 Rebs @1.76 Loser
NBA | NO Pelicans | ��
Glad the gamble on Duren paid off and with beautiful odds that dropped to 1.68 later on, we move
Trey Murphy is back and the Pels will definitely benefit of that with Zion being sidelined for a while, played his first game last game against the Nets where he had 12 points and 5 rebounds on 7 rebound chances in 26 minutes.
Should see his minutes slowly getting back to normal and I could see him getting 30+ here, spread is kinda terrifying but I think the Pels can put up a fight against OKC who have some injuries themselves with almost all Centers injured including Chet.
Trey is 1/1 this season and over in 5/L6 games against OKC, as I said he has only played 1 game this season but if you count from his games from last season he’s over this line in 11/L15 games. W/o Zion he went over this line in 75% of the games last season.

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 10:26 AM

Major Couch Potato has lost his last 8

Record: 45-34, +4.43 unitsLast Pick: Alex De Minaur ML vs Daniil Medvedev (+108, 1 unit) ❌
Tennis | ATP Finals | 8:00 AM EST (estimated)
Today's Pick: Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev | Rublev ML at +160. 2 units. Loser
Write-up: I got some decent closing line value on my last pick, as De Minaur's ML closed at around -110, but Medvedev actually ended up dominating the match. That brings me to 7 losses in a row. I will continue to post picks in an attempt to get back on track, as I still have a positive overall unit return. For now, I'll be posting shorter write-ups than usual.

Today, I'm sticking with the ATP Finals and going with Andrey Rublev to beat Carlos Alcaraz in their round-robin match. Alcaraz has been struggling with illness all week, and he confirmed this after Monday's 1-6, 5-7 loss to Casper Ruud (whom he previously held a 4-0 head-to-head record against). Meanwhile, Rublev also lost his first-round match against Alexander Zverev, but I watched most of the match and he actually looked pretty strong from the baseline. His main problem was that he struggled to get anything going on return against Zverev's oppresive serve, as he was aced on nearly 20% of return points. Rublev is not alone in struggling to break Zverev's serve on indoor hard courts, as Zverev was broken just twice in five matches in Paris. I expect Rublev's game to be very effective in exploiting Alcaraz's current fitness deficiencies, as he gets great pace and net clearance on his forehand (Rublev has the highest forehand potency over the last 52 weeks according to Tennis Abstract), often forcing opponents to make tons of balls in an attempt to find his backhand. While backhand side is a bit weaker, he doesn't often give opponents a breather by hitting a slower slice - his backhand slice rate is one of lowest on tour at 8.1%. I'll happily take Rublev at plus money here against a sick Alcaraz who has never been especially dominant on indoor hard courts.

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 10:33 AM

Weight Shift

Record 111-1-62 | +59.39u
Form: WWWWLWWLLLLWWWW
NBA: BOS Celtics v BKN Nets / Derrick White under 16.5 points $1.80 2u (Bet365) 11:40 AM WINNER
I know it's probably crazy to be fading a guy that has started the season as hot as White has but Brooklyn have been surprisingly good at defending guards. They're in the top half of the league in points against and shooting % against backcourts. They've conceded a lot of points who get to the line consistently and for Boston that's Tatum and Brown. I think they'll carry tomorrow.
Derrick posted 14 points on the Nets last week but that was at home. He averages 3 more points at home than on the road with higher shooting %s inside and outside the 3. It'll probably come close but I think this line is higher than it should be given it's in Brooklyn and he just played 38 minutes tonight. I know Boston don't have a lot of depth and it's early in the season but the NBA lineups and rotations have proven themselves to be a mystery thus far.

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 10:35 AM

Sicknology

POTD Record: 196-216-4 (-25.89 Units)
Best Bet Series: 79-47-1 (+6.36 Units)
Value Wagers: 31-35-2 (-1.16 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
Cautionary Tails: 34-54 (-9.74 Units)
Last Pick: Bucks -3.5 Alt. Spread✅
Today's Pick: Rockets ML (2-WIN STREAK✅✅**)** WINNER
ESPN Bet Odds: -195
Wager Amount: 1.95 to win 1U
League: NBA
Event: Los Angeles Clippers vs Houston Rockets (7PM CST)
Be Advised: Handicapping Best Bets for the entire of November! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!
Recap: Blows out certainly helps this cause! Yes, we could have took the Bucks point spread, but I wanted to take the safer option because the Raptors has the better track record ATS and the Bucks had the WORST ATS coming into this NBA Cup game. Let's move onto another matchup that is my least favorite matchup of my previous NBA POTDs, but my favorite wager outta the NBA slate.
Matchup: Don't really like any of these NBA games once again. Some teams playing b2b after playing their first NBA Cup game. Honestly would like to get to the player prop market, but most of the player prop lines are not out, so I suppose taking a chalky wager on the ML would have to be the play.
Rockets are currently on a 3-WIN home streak (4-1 overall). The Clippers on the other hand are 3-1 on the road and just loss their first road against the Thunder. The Clippers are actually playing well without their best player Kawhi Leonard. James Harden is very capable of leading in all offensive score, but Norman Powell has contributed in such a big way that resulted Clippers wins. Obviously you would have players step up to fill the void when their primary players goes down, but it's really impressive how Clippers have won games without Kawhi.
I still like the Rockets in this spot. Sengun and Jalen Green are offensively destructive at home. Segun is also a great peritmeter defender. I wouldn't be too shocked if the Clippers won, but this is my most confident wager outta the NBA slate. It concerns me that Clippers money came in right as I am about to post this POTD, but I'm going to stick to my guns wit the home team (Maybe Rockets sharp money will come in soon).
The Play & Prediction: 1.95U on Rockets ML in ESPN Bet. Rockets win 134-129 in OT. Other plays will be in the betting group

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 12:26 PM

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 12:27 PM

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 12:37 PM

NBA Props with 100% hit rates over the L5 games

Cade Cunningham Over 6.5 Reb Winner
Scotty Pippen Jr Over 3.5 Reb Loser
Bennedict Mathurin Over 5.5 Reb Winner

Cade Cunningham Over 8.5 Ast Winner
Nic Claxton Over 2.5 Ast Loser
Coby White Over 4.5 Ast Loser
Norman Powell Over 1.5 Ast Winner

Cameron Johnson Over 14.5 Points Loser
Norman Powell Over 21.5 Points Loser

Cameron Johnson Over 2.5 3PT Loser
Josh Giddey Over 0.5 3PT Loser
Norman Powell Over 2.5 3PT Winner
Anthony Edwards Over 3.53PT Loser

Cade Cunningham Over 14.5 Reb+Ast Winner
Derrick White Over 8.5 Reb+Ast Loser

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 12:39 PM

Cameron Johnson o18.5 pts + rebs Loser

Johnson has become one of the Nets key scorers following the departure of Mikal Bridges where he has taken 10+ FGA every game so far this year. This volume covers the points side of this bet, but the reason I’m adding rebounds here is because the Celtics have been susceptible on the glass vs opposing forwards so far this year. This was even seen in the last matchup between these two teams where Cameron Johnson went for 8 rebounds.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 11-13-24, 01:08 PM

some good info in here skipper getch, best of luck

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

some good info in here skipper getch, best of luck

Thanks Jake just sharing my daily search for winners.

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 01:20 PM

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 01:22 PM

Sports Gods AI
Player Prop Found: Amir Coffey WINNER
Proposition: Over 0.5 Assists

Before you bet: - Amir Coffey has exceeded 0.5 assists in 14 of his last 18 games on the road (1.6 assists/game average).

Available on Caesars

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 01:27 PM

Jaden Ivey o3.5 Rebs (-132, FanDuel) DNP

Ivey is over this line in 10/12 games this year averaging 9.6 Reb Chances per game.

The Bucks in general are allowing the 7th MOST Rebs to opposing players.

With Dame & Middleton out their should be more missed shots than usual leading to more chances for us.

Ivey has cleared this line in 4/L5 games against the Bucks, with his current uptick in chances I feel like this has a good shot.

Spread is 6.5, both teams are off B2B's, this game has a very low over/under & should be sloppy, which is great for a rebounds bet.

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 01:28 PM

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 01:30 PM

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 01:37 PM

Alex Caruso

Play of the Day.

James Harden Over 21.5 Points Loser

Harden has scored 21+ in FIVE STRAIGHT games against the Rockets since he left And now is BY FAR the #1 option on this Clippers team which means he’s going to chuck shots all game

On top of the Rockets allowing 9 Guards in eleven games to beat this line and Guards with 16+ Shots are over in 8/9 overall

Which Harden should hit EASILY in Houston as the #1 option vs his former team after he always does great against them

Best Line: -105 MGM/ESPN (posted last night to VIP)

Now 22.5 on all books still playable as I expect 17-20 shots at least in a revenge game

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 01:42 PM

Jordan Poole under 20.5 points (-110 BetMGM) Loser Double the point total
Poole has gone over this line in 6 of 9 games this season, however with the return of Kyle Kuzma last game (we attacked his under then also), his FGA decreased from 16.8 per game to taking 14 FGA.

Poole is a volume based scorer, as out of the 6 games he went over this line, 5 of them he had a USG % over 30 %.

Last season with Kuzma he had a USG% of 26 and this year it is 24.8. In games where Poole had less then a 30% USG%, he only went over this line in 2 out of 5 games this season and 7 of 51 games last season!

The Spurs do give up points to the guard position specifically from three, so if Poole is feeling it, there is potential for a Poole party, but I do think the Spurs handle business tonight.

The Spurs as a team allow the 9th fewest PPG and the LOWEST FG%. The spread in this game is the Spurs -9.5, and in games where the Wizards lost by 10 or more points, Poole went over this line in 12 of 37 games last season.

**Getch13** · 11-13-24, 02:16 PM

(SAC) Kevin Huerter OVER 11.5 PAs (-115) WINNER

12+ PAs in 6/L7 Games vs the Suns with 20+ Minutes
21 PAs a few days ago vs this Suns team & should get Tyus Jones/Devin Booker guarding him again
13+ PAs in 6/7 Games this season with 21+ Minutes
Malik Monk remains OUT so Huerter should be locked in for close to 30 minutes (unless his shot isn’t falling)
12+ PAs in 21/L23 Home Games with 21+ Minutes