Getch's Tracking and Info Thread

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Kyrie Irving o8.5 Rebounds + Assists vs Utah (-140 365)

Really nice spot for Kyrie here. Hoping Utah being at home quells blowout concerns.

Last time around vs Utah 9 assists on 15 potentials and 6 rebounds on 11 rebound chances. Makes sense for a spike spot for him.

So far over in 7/11 this season with three misses all sub 30 minute games.

Over this line in 51/80 last season (64%) and 6/L8 H2H with Utah averaging 11.9 RA

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Darius Garland O 5.5 AST-

Garland has been an assist MACHINE this month of November, averaging nearly 8 assists per game and missing this line just ONCE.

He also has an extensive history against Philadelphia. Over his career head to head, Garland averages 8.1 assists on 14.1 potentials.

In games this season with ONLY 8 potential assists, Garland averages 6.9 assists, covering this line in 8/10 games.

This season, Philadelphia has no new defensive weapons, and is a top ten team in assists allowed. Guards have been allowed to cook, just this month Ja assisted 12, Pippen 13, and most recently Lamelo with 8.

Philadelphia’s struggling defense to the PG position combined with Garland’s season & head to head performance creates the perfect opportunity and tons of value in this line. Philadelphia NEEDS a win & the Cavs are going to do everything they can to prevent this.

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Dereck Lively Over 7.5 PointsJ

ust came back from injury and played 24 minutes last game. Over 3/3 games vs the Jazz.

Went over vs them earlier this season with 14 points.

Centers have been cooking this team, the last 7/10 have gone over their lines. Wemby-24 Sabonis-28 Vucevic-23 Jokic-27 Plumlee-15 Pts

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Kyrie Irving over 1.5 steals + blocks (+110 bet365)-

hit in 7/L11

averaging 1.7 SBs in that span

he jazz are ranked 30th in steals allowed to guards

kyrie is good at getting steals because he often gambles on defense rather than putting in the effort to stay in front

the jazz have a plethora of young guards who are turnover prone so he should be able to steal the ball twice

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Keyonte George o7.5 Rebs + Ast (-140, ESPN/Bet365

George is over this line in 78% of games this year averaging 17.2 RA chances per game.
With 30+ minutes this season he is over in 100% of games averaging 10.3 RAs & 18.8 chances.

The Mavericks are a phenomenal matchup as they allow the 9th MOST Rebs & 11th MOST Ast to opposing PGs.

George faced them a few weeks ago & had 10 RAs on 25 chances.

Both of these teams are top 12 in pace which is great for this bet.

Walker Kessler is also OUT for this games, last season with 22+ minutes George was over this line in 11/13 games.

Spread is 9, Utah is at Home & has historically played Dallas well so hopefully they can keep it close

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RECORD: 9-4
Net Units : +30.21
Previous Pick: North Texas ML v Minnesota (+100) 5 Units ✅
Recap: LETS penetrating GO BOYS! As i predicted North Texas came through for us 🔥 That brings us to 9-0 on our 5 Unit Plays ! All 9 of our wins on this thread have been my 5 Unit Max Plays ! With 4 of them being for + money! Very happy to be up 30+ Units in only 2 weeks ! Let’s keep climbing boys💰
NFL | WAS Commanders v PHI Eagles | 6:15 PM MST
Today’s Pick: Devonta Smith over 49.5 Rec Yards (-125) 5 UNITS
Write Up: Everyone’s going to be on A.J. Brown & Saquon’s props for tonight’s game. That usually makes me want to shy away from that. I do think there is a world where both WRs can eat. And 50 yards isn’t a huge ask for such a talented and crafty receiver with excellent hands. Let’s talk about Davonta, he has been limited this week in practice due to a hamstring issue. But i do think he plays and is healthy with very minor discomfort regarding his injury. I think Philadelphia is treating this injury with care due to missing out on Brown for a couple weeks. They don’t want to have to go through that again. So i do believe he is healthier than they’re making him out to be just to lean on the side of caution.
His last 5 games against Washington he’s had some sneaky good games. He’s averaged 87.8 Rec YPG against the Commanders in the last 5 meetings, going over this 49.5 rec yard line in 4/5 of those games. And in totality of 2024 he’s gone over 49.5 rec yards in 6/8 of his games so far this year. The two games he didn’t reach this line he had some extremely poor performances with only -2 yards against the Giants, and only 14 yards against the Cowboys. But honestly, both of those games he wasn’t really needed. The eagles straight out obliterated the cowboys winning 34-6. and the game against the Giants they won 28-3. So in both instances, the game wasn’t even close at all, and there was absolutely no need for a competitive passing game. Today’s game against the Commanders will be far more competitive, and every yard will be more valuable.
Davonta Smith at home is also another animal ! 13/15 of his last home games he’s gone over the 50 rec yard mark ! His only games going under 50 yards at home, he had 49 yards, and a 30 yard game. So he did get extremely close in both games he went under !
To conclude this write up, i really like Davonta Smith! At home, under the bright lights of a prime time game, and in a game where Dan Quinn will be scheming up a way to focus on stopping Saquan and AJ ! I think this game will be a sneaky game for Davonta Smith to go off ! BOL to anyone who tails

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POTD Record: 0-0 (First POTD)
Net Units: 0.0 (First POTD)
Last Pick: None
Game: WAS Commanders vs PHI Eagles, 11/14 @ 8pm
POTD: Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards o95.5 (-115 DK), 2u To Pay 3.7u
Write Up:
Thursday Night’s Primetime matchup features the Washington Commanders taking on the Philadelphia Eagles in Philly for control of the NFC East. Today’s pick focuses on Saquon Barkley who’s backwards hurdle has been playing on repeat on highlight reels all week.
Saquon is ranked 11th among all HBs with a grade of 80.2 on PFF. He ranks 2nd in Total Rush Yards (991), 3rd in Rush Attempts (171) and 4th in Yards/Attempt (5.8). Saquon ranks 1st in Explosive Runs (designed runs resulting in 10+ yards) at 24. He’s 2nd in Breakaways (designed runs resulting in 15+ yards) at 12 and earns 40% of his total Rush Yards from breakaway runs. He has hit o95.5 rush yards in 5/9 games and averages 110 rush yards/game. Other stats that may matter: he’s T-14th in Yards After Contact/Attempt; T-4th in total Yards After Contact; T-9th in Forced Missed Tackles; and 6th in 1st Downs earned among HBs.
Opposite of Saquon is the Commanders’ Defense which ranks pretty poorly. PFF ranks Washington’s Defense Overall at 28th, 22nd in Run Defense and is T17th in Tackling. Their D Line primarily operates with 3 down defensive lineman. At Nose Tackle, Phidarian Mathis ranks extremely low. PFF ranks him 111th/120 among Interior Defenders (DI) for Overall Defense and 112th/120 among DI for his Run Defense. Both of Washington’s Left and Right Edge defenders are mediocre, ranking 54th/120 (LE) and 81st/120 (RE) among Interior Defenders. At the second level is Will LB Luvu whose Overall Defense ranks 40th/83 and Run Defense 59th/81 among Linebackers. The ONLY bright spot on Washington’s Defense standing in Barkley’s way (no, not the sunshine in Dallas) is Mike LB Bobby Wagner. PFF gives Wagner a grade of 84.2, ranks him 5th/83 in Overall Defense and 3rd/81 in Run Defense.
Giving Saquon a helping hand is Philly’s Offensive Line. Philly’s Offense ranks 9th overall, and 10th in both Run Offense and Run Blocking. An analysis of Saquon’s Rush Direction reveals that he attempts 39% of his runs straight up the middle; either Middle Left (21%) or Middle Right (18%). When rushing up the middle, Saquon has accrued 347 yards (216 yds ML, 131 yds MR) and has broken for 9 runs over 10 yds (6 ML, 3 MR). He averages 6.0 Yds/Att (ML) and 4.4 Yds/Att (MR). This provides a spectacular match up for us. Both the ML and MR lanes target the A Gaps and a weak NT on the Commanders’ side. Other rushing directions of note: 15% of Attempts go to the RE (Right Side C Gap) where he averages 6.6 Yds/Att and has broken for six 10+ yard runs. When rushing LG (Left B Gap) and LE (Left C Gap) he averages 7.6 Yds/Att for both.
All stats, ratings and rankings from PFF.
POTD: Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards o95.5 (-115 DK)

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POTD RECORD: 23-8 ($100 bettor would be up $1500 + the past 30 days following my picks) 🔥
PREVIOUS PICK: Ball State +7.5 winner 💵
BONUS PICK: Kentucky +8 winner 💵
EVENT: NFL Commanders @ Eagles 8:15PM
POTD: Washington Commanders +6.5 alt (-154) 5 units
Ok Let’s try this one more time - I have had many people blowing up my inbox about my POD picks and bonus picks. Let’s all work as a TEAM in this thread and beat the books. No dumbass comments and trolling. Have a BLESSED Day everyone. 💪
•• Tonight, we have a NFC EAST Divisional Rivalry Battle between both front runners of this division (2-0). Washington comes into the matchup 7-2-1 ATS & Philadelphia 5-4 ATS (1-3 ATS @ home).
I expect a nice bounce back game from the road underdog Washington Commanders after a tough loss to the Steelers. If the Cleveland Browns can cover against the Eagles @ home why not the Commanders. Eagles traditionally have a let down game in this spot. Philadelphia comes into this game riding a 5 game winning streak and I expect some sort of regression tonight (Philadelphia’s 3 wins @ home have came by 5 points or less)I love this situational spot for the Commanders in a tight division rivalry in primetime that could come down to the last possession & cover my +6.5 spread.

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POTD RECORD: 85-63
Last POTD: Trey Murphy O4.5 Rebs @1.76 ❌
Todays POTD: Keyonte George O7.5 RA @1.71
NBA | Utah Jazz | 🏀
Streak over time to start over again, sorry bout this one fellas it felt right with stats in hand but foul trouble and not being in the right spot for the boards cooked us badly. Ugly L finished with 2 boards smh we move
One game on the slate and I didn’t really wanna touch it but Keyonte props is lookin good so I’m having a go
Keyonte is over this line in 7/9 games this season averaging 3.1 RPG & 6.1 APG (9.2 RA), he’s Avg 7.4 rebound chances per game and 9.7 potential assists per game (17.1 potential RA).
Earlier this season against Dallas Keyonte had 5 assists on 12 potentials and 5 rebounds on 13 rebound chances (10 RA & 25 potentials). Dallas have allowed 8th most Rebs to PG’s and 11th most Ast to PG, decent mismatch.
Plenty of potentials last game that led to him going over, but he could’ve had much more than 10 RA’s last game against the Mavs so we need Jazz to make the shots and him fighting to get some of em boards and we should cash this one easily cause 25 potentials is wild on a line at 7.5

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John Collins has cashed this line in back to back games.
-He has an elite matchup in this game against the Mavericks.
-The Mavericks have been allowing the 5th most points in the league to opposing centres this season.
-The Mavericks have been allowing the 6th most rebounds in the league to oppsoing centres this season.
-Collins played the most minutes for the Jazz in their most recent game.

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Marco Rossi has a point in 11 of 15 games this season, and has yet to go two games in a row without a point. He did not get one last game, but today he faces Montreal. The Canadiens are allowing the most goals per game this season at 4.13. Will Rossi get back on track here?

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Mikael Granlund is averaging 3.4 shots on goal per game this season, clearing his 2.5 line in 12 of 17 games. On the road, he is 8/9 at this line, and the Shark will be away against the Rangers in this one. NYR is allowing the 4th most shots on goal per game this season. Will Granlund lead the charge for SJ again

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Claude Giroux has tallied at least one point in 6 of his last 6 meetings with his former team, the Flyers. PHI is allowing the 4th most goals per game this season, so Giroux could be in line to keep his streak alive yet again tonight. He has a point in 8 of 15 games this season

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Quinn Hughes has landed 3+ shots on goal in 10 of his last 14 games this season, with 2+ in 12 straight games. The Islanders started out this season limiting shots, but have recently fallen apart. 7 defensemen has cleared 2.5 shots on goal against NYI since the start of November

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Gabriel Vilardi has scored a goal in 7 of his last 10 games overall. He has been shooting more in this stretch, landing 3+ shots on goal in 7 consecutive games. Despite this hot streak, Tampa held him without a goal on the 3rd. Will they silence him again, or does Vilardi find the back of the net this time

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𝐙𝐚𝐜𝐡 𝐄𝐫𝐭𝐳 𝐎 𝟑𝟑.𝟓 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐘𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬 (-𝟏𝟏𝟎 𝐅&#119811

Ertz has been reliable this season, showing his potential when the team needs him. He has recorded at least four targets in every game this season except for two. Including three games where he got at least eight targets.

He’s over this line last 3/5 games averaging 44.2 rec yards in that span. Over the last three outings, Ertz has 12 receptions on 20 targets for 113 receiving yards. His recent volume has been encouraging and is likely going to continue, especially if the Commanders are trailing.

With Washington not having a reliable No. 2 WR, Ertz has seen steady target distribution throughout the season. I’m expecting the Eagles CBs to clamp down on Mclaurin forcing Daniels to look middle of the field to the his biggest target. Despite facing a stingy Eagles defense, Ertz is should still see substantial workload in this matchup.

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Gabriel Vilardi o0.5 Points Analysis --A short and sweet breakdown here. WPG has the best PP in the league. TBL takes the 3rd most penalties in the NHL and has the 9th worst PK% in the NHL. Vilardi has a point in 9 of his last 10 games, including 8-straight.

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Teleporto
Record: 44-24-0, +24.26 units (ROI: 26.8%)
Last POTD: Arizona St +4 @ -110 (2u) Won
POTD: Memphis/Ohio o158.5 @ -110 (1u)
Event: Ohio vs Memphis @ 8pm EST
Memphis scored 80 and 83 against two top 100 teams. Now they face Ohio who has one of the worst defensive ratings in college basketball. Memphis will push the pace on them and take advantage of the mismatch. Ohio is bottom of the league in effective field goal percentage allowed. Haggerty and Hunter can feast in this matchup. Both teams foul at a high rate which will inflate scoring. Ohio can shoot and find scoring off of turnovers in this matchup. They’re averaging 78 ppg.

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MProp

POTD Record 10-5Net Units: +3.53u
Today: NBA , Chicago Bulls vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Last Pick: Anthony Davis Over 27.5 Points (1.87) ❌
Next Pick: Nikola Vucevic Over 17.5 Points (2.00)
Vucevic started this season on fire. Replacing DeRozan with Giddey gives him much more space, usage and good P&R partner. He scored +20 points in 7 games this season and covered this line in 11/12 games where only miss was super early blowout.
Cavaliers is great team but they play with higher tempo compare to last season with coach Atkinson and this led them to allow more points. Cavaliers is the best P&R defenses thanks to JA but Vucevic play very different compare to traditional Centers in P&R so it's a bit misleading data. Also Cavaliers is worst post-up defense, which is Vucevic's 2nd highest scoring option.
Vucevic played vs Cavaliers this season and scored 20 points. It was very high scoring game until last quarter, expecting similar one here.

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POTD Record: 198-216-4 (-22.89 Units)
Best Bet Series: 81-47-1 (+9.36 Units)
Value Wagers: 31-35-2 (-1.16 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
Cautionary Tails: 34-54 (-9.74 Units)
Last Pick: Both Team to Score a Rushing TDs✅ (+2U)
Today's Pick: Rockets ML (4-WIN STREAK✅✅✅✅)
$DKNG Odds: -185
Wager Amount: 1.85U to 1U
League: NBA
Event: Los Angeles Clippers vs Houston Rockets (7PM CST)
Be Advised: Handicapping Best Bets for the entire of November! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!
Recap: I see you! Haters, downvoters and faders!! Don't worry I got something for you next month (if I don't get banned)!
Matchup: Running back the same team again in the same matchup from Wednesday! The only difference in this matchup is that they will be playing in the NBA Cup game, which means this isn't just a regular season game. Clippers have been great playing without their superstar Kawhi Leonard and they got a respectable bench, but it's just not enough to beat solid teams. Of course any NBA team can beat any NBA team on any given nite. Upsets happen, but again this time this is more than a regular season game, so I expect the Rockets to put the Clippers away early.
To recap the first matchup (non-NBA Cup game) the Rockets covered the spread and defeated the Clippers handily. They were able to contain Norman Powell to just 13 Points. James Harden was their leading scorer. He's been averaging 20.3 ppg. I just don't think the Clippers are going to be able to contain Jalen Green and Sengun's offense, especially on the road. Clippers has been playing well on the road, but the Rockets are just a superior team at home. I expect the Rockets to win like Wednesday.
The Play & Prediction: 1.85U on Rockets ML. Rockets win 125-119. All other plays will be in the betting group.

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D’Angelo Russell has cleared his 3PT Made prop in eight of his 11 games – So far this season, Russell is logging close to two 3PTM/G while taking 6.1 3PTA/G. He now takes on the Spurs who give up the 10th most 3PTM/G – This also comes with the 6th highest Opponent 3PT%. Last time Russell saw SAS, he logged three 3PTM

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Averaging 12.3 Rebounds/G this season, Ivica Zubac has reeled in 11 or more Rebounds in nine of his 12 games. The Clippers are set to take on the Rockets – HOU allows the 15th most Rebounds/G. After going under in his last game, how many Rebounds can Ivica record vs HOU ?