FCS Playoffs: Montana St -13.5 vs Idaho

**Headsterx** · 12-11-24, 05:44 PM

Go Cats! Go!

**KnuckleHeadz** · 12-11-24, 05:48 PM

FCS champion @ +160?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-11-24, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by KnuckleHeadz

FCS champion @ +160?

I don't want to speak for unde. Just my two cents: *I don't like it.
...The games in Semifinals/Finals will be very tough. Low-margin games.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-11-24, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

I don't want to speak for unde. Just my two cents: *I don't like it.
...The games in Semifinals/Finals will be very tough. Low-margin games.

Let me know follow up on that. What are the prices on the three Dakota teams?

**unde0087** · 12-11-24, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by KnuckleHeadz

FCS champion @ +160?

I don't do futures but it is a good bet. Barring Mellott going down with an injury I don't think any team is better than them. Any of the Dakota teams will be hard pressed to go into Bozeman and win so if they are going to lose it would be in the NC.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-11-24, 09:04 PM

unde, you attending the game this week?

**Otters27** · 12-11-24, 09:10 PM

Is that how Idaho QB from last year?

He was pretty good

**unde0087** · 12-11-24, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

unde, you attending the game this week?

No, I am a recovering alcoholic man. I don't need to be near any tailgate areas.

plus I really not a fan of Montana or Mt St. I mean I will route for both but I just like FCS and betting Big Sky conference.

**unde0087** · 12-11-24, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by Otters27

Is that how Idaho QB from last year?

He was pretty good

Layne is a redshirt sophomore.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-11-24, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by unde0087

No, I am a recovering alcoholic man. I don't need to be near any tailgate areas.

plus I really not a fan of Montana or Mt St. I mean I will route for both but I just like FCS and betting Big Sky conference.

Don't need a beer to have fun, pal. I would have paid for your ticket.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-11-24, 10:25 PM

Originally posted by unde0087

Layne is a redshirt sophomore.

Think he's talking about McCoy, who played well at Idaho in 2023. McCoy transferred to OregSt, where he was the starter in 2024.

**DJK** · 12-11-24, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by unde0087

Justbet finally released line. I will be backing Cats again here. At work so will write about this later.

These two faced off two months ago in Bozeman which lead to a 38-7 Cats win. This of course was without Idaho's best QB as he was injured. I do think Idaho will put up a better fight this time around but there are some concerning factors at play for Idaho..........their defense. I don't think they will be able to keep up in this game.
Idaho ranks 31st in rush defense vs #1 rush attack in the nation. Idaho ranks 34th in scoring defense vs #1 scoring team in the country. Idaho is a putrid 63rd in the nation in total defense. The only way I see this game being within two touchdowns is if they can force turnovers and score touchdowns. That remains to be seen but I don't like the chances of those things playing out as Mellott does not turn the football over and the Cats defense do not give up many touchdowns at home all season long.

At the end of the day the Cats are playing on another level than anyone they face. They are well coached and after the meltdown at UC Davis which watched a 2 TD lead evaporate in the final 1:47 they have not taken their foot off the petal at the end of games so I feel good about not seeing a backdoor cover. The coach even took some heavy criticism from the fan base about leaving Mellott in the game vs UT Martin when they were crushing them.

I see this as a 38-17 type game.

I also am intently watching the line of the UC Davis vs South Dakota game on Saturday. I like UC Davis to cover that game and I believe they can win outright. I want to see where that line goes as the weekend closes in.

Good luck men

Ok, I'm sold. Unloading on Montana State ML-450 @ BetMGM.

**KnuckleHeadz** · 12-12-24, 12:02 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Let me know follow up on that. What are the prices on the three Dakota teams?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-12-24, 12:16 AM

Thx, Knuckle. Unde is very knowledge on these teams. So, I respect his opinion.

My longshot pick would be: South Dakota +850.
...Coyotes are a team that's emerging this year.
...Three key data points:
1) Respectable 14-pt loss @Wisconsin.
2) Overtime loss vs South Dakota St.
3) One-pt win vs top-ranked NoDakota St.

Here's my point on the Dakota teams. Three strong teams, each went 1-1 in those games:
*SO DAK: close win vs NoDakSt.
*SoDakSt: OT win @South Dakota.
*NoDakSt: Classic late comeback win vs SoDakSt.

...The schedule gave the three Dakota teams losses. Feel like they will be heard from b4 the end of the season. Just my two cents.

**unde0087** · 12-12-24, 04:46 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Thx, Knuckle. Unde is very knowledge on these teams. So, I respect his opinion.

My longshot pick would be: South Dakota +850.
...Coyotes are a team that's emerging this year.
...Three key data points:
1) Respectable 14-pt loss @Wisconsin.
2) Overtime loss vs South Dakota St.
3) One-pt win vs top-ranked NoDakota St.

Here's my point on the Dakota teams. Three strong teams, each went 1-1 in those games:
*SO DAK: close win vs NoDakSt.
*SoDakSt: OT win @South Dakota.
*NoDakSt: Classic late comeback win vs SoDakSt.

...The schedule gave the three Dakota teams losses. Feel like they will be heard from b4 the end of the season. Just my two cents.

UC Davis vs South Dakota should be a good one. I mean you make a good case for South Dakota but I could say the same for UC Davis. Only losses was vs Cal in week 0 and a 2 point loss to #1 Montana St on a failed 2 point conversion in that crazy finish game. They are legit.

**unde0087** · 12-12-24, 05:13 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Don't need a beer to have fun, pal. I would have paid for your ticket.

I appreciate it but getting tickets isn't an issue. I enjoy watching MLB baseball live and cbb not much for sitting in the freezing cold to watch a football game anymore. Plus during the holiday season I put in a lot of hours at work so going to a game isn't in the cards. Like I said before I have never been a massive Montana or Montana St fan. I am a Florida State fan but, as you well know, they weren't even watchable this season. My paps is a Montana St grad and massive fan so that is what got me into FCS so much. I will say that it has been fun watching this Mellott kid develop and that is why I am so high on Montana St. I believe he will lead the Cats to glory this year but as you know anything can happen on any given weekend. I just think if the Cats show up with their A game it will take a hell of an effort by someone else to beat them.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-12-24, 10:10 AM

Unde, you're knowledge on these teams is good. Your opinion is respected. That's why they play the games.

I'll give one more comment on this round of FCS games. I hear you on UC Davis, they definitely have a chance to win this week. My one final opinion on this FCS round:
*I get the feeling that all four Home Favs will hold S/U:
...A four-team Moneyline Fav parlay should pay > +100. When the dust clears, I think all 4 Favs advance.

**Otters27** · 12-12-24, 02:10 PM

The Montana st comeback vs New Mexico was epic

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-12-24, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by Otters27

The Montana st comeback vs New Mexico was epic

Yes, it was, Otters. Nice springboard to start a big season. FWIW, the New Mex WR dropped the game-sealing catch @ 2:00.

**leovegas** · 12-13-24, 10:21 AM

up to -14.25

Should I just sell points and bet -16-17?

**Otters27** · 12-13-24, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Yes, it was, Otters. Nice springboard to start a big season. FWIW, the New Mex WR dropped the game-sealing catch @ 2:00.

That's right. He was wide open

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-13-24, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Otters27

That's right. He was wide open

Salud, Otters. NEW MEX really should have held on to win that game.

MONTSt is a very good team. In coming weeks, we'll see if they're a legit #1. That's why they play the games.

**unde0087** · 12-13-24, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by leovegas

up to -14.25

Should I just sell points and bet -16-17?

To be honest I would wait and watch the line. Last week money came in on UT Martin which dropped the line to 16.5 before it jumped all the way to 20.5. I would suspect the same might happen here. I believe Mt St will win this game by 17+ points so a half points in this case isnt going to hurt if you buy up. It is either a Mt St sound win or they won't cover. I doubt this ends on 15 as these books don't have a clue in most cases. Just my take. Obviously you want to beat the closing line in any game but beggers can't be choosers when you come late to the party.

**DJK** · 12-13-24, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by unde0087

To be honest I would wait and watch the line. Last week money came in on UT Martin which dropped the line to 16.5 before it jumped all the way to 20.5. I would suspect the same might happen here. I believe Mt St will win this game by 17+ points so a half points in this case isnt going to hurt if you buy up. It is either a Mt St sound win or they won't cover. I doubt this ends on 15 as these books don't have a clue in most cases. Just my take. Obviously you want to beat the closing line in any game but beggers can't be choosers when you come late to the party.

I hope that they win the game at least; otherwise I'm down 5 figures.

I also hope that you are good with the FCS games like people are saying on here.

**DJK** · 12-13-24, 04:36 PM

Any chance that North Dakota State could lose tomorrow?

I ask because the Montana State ML climbed so fast from -450 to -650 before I had a chance to bet it at BetMGM that I parlayed it with the North Dakota State ML (-1600) to bring it down a bit.

Hopefully, doing that doesn't end up hurting me. LOL

**DJK** · 12-13-24, 04:45 PM

This is getting weird.

DraftKings just closed the line on the Montana State game.

That happened right after they briefly jacked up the ML to sky high.

Then, just now the line came back up and the ML is now lower at only -600.

What's crazy is that BetRivers has it at -715 and North Dakota State ML is -10000.

**unde0087** · 12-13-24, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by DJK

I hope that they win the game at least; otherwise I'm down 5 figures.

I also hope that you are good with the FCS games like people are saying on here.

Well if I didn't think they were going to win and win convincingly I wouldnt have played it and posted it. I don't know what to tell you. I can't read the future but you can look at my two plays from round 1 and 2 that are still in the first two pages. Pretty sure those ended out as predicted. All I can say is aside from Mellott being injured immediately I don't think you have too much to worry about on a ml bet but again there are no guarantees in life sir.

**DJK** · 12-13-24, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by unde0087

Well if I didn't think they were going to win and win convincingly I wouldnt have played it and posted it. I don't know what to tell you. I can't read the future but you can look at my two plays from round 1 and 2 that are still in the first two pages. Pretty sure those ended out as predicted. All I can say is aside from Mellott being injured immediately I don't think you have too much to worry about on a ml bet but again there are no guarantees in life sir.

Thanks for the update and thank you for posting.

I hope it all works out for everyone.

**unde0087** · 12-13-24, 08:41 PM

Well it is about that time. Let's see what damage old Tommy and the gang can do tonight. Hope to meet you all in the winners circle.

Let's go Cats.

**Chiefs83** · 12-13-24, 09:07 PM

Took Idaho ML +500
1st half +7.5
+14.5

**GzaTheGenius** · 12-13-24, 09:50 PM

Originally posted by Chiefs83

Took Idaho ML +500
1st half +7.5
+14.5

Smart

**unde0087** · 12-13-24, 10:25 PM

And just like that, Tommy touchdown takes over the game.

**DJK** · 12-13-24, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by unde0087

Well it is about that time. Let's see what damage old Tommy and the gang can do tonight. Hope to meet you all in the winners circle.

Let's go Cats.

Looking good so far.

It was a bit of sweat in the first quarter but now I have 21 point cushion for my Montana State ML + North Dakota State ML parlay.

The way I see it, Idaho has to get tired out in the 2nd half defending the runs and Montana State steam rolls them.

There's still a plenty of time left to the game and I don't want to jinx anything but thanks for posting.

**unde0087** · 12-13-24, 10:34 PM

Well I have definitely seen this movie before. I think I know how it ends.