CFB Playoff 1st Round Betting Talk

[SBR Andy]

The first round of the College Football Playoff gets underway this weekend with 4 games across Friday and Saturday:


Friday, December 20th at 8:00 PM ET - #10 Indiana vs #7 Notre Dame (ND -6.5 | O/U 50.5)

Line History

Matchup Stats

Picks and Predictions

Player Prop Bets

Same Game Parlay


Saturday, December 21st at 12:00 PM ET - #11 SMU vs #6 Penn State (PSU -8.5 | O/U 53.5)

Line History

Matchup Stats

Picks and Predictions


Saturday, December 21st at 4:00 PM ET - #12 Clemson vs #5 Texas (TEX -12.5 | O/U 51)

Line History

Matchup Stats

Picks and Predictions


Saturday, December 21st at 8:00 PM ET - #9 Tennessee vs #8 Ohio State (OSU -7 | O/U 46)

Line History

Matchup Stats

Early Picks


How are you guys betting the first round? Can any underdogs pull off the upset?

[ThaWoj]

A lot of public money will be parlaying those 4 mls

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Notre Dame minus the points all day long.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A lot of public money will be parlaying those 4 mls

Some truth to that. A few basic observations:

1) The HFA for these games should be a little > Regular Season. Sort of like NFL and NBA.

2) These lines will be studied to the n-th degree. Going to be very hard to identify any ODDSMAKER ERROR games. Mostly games to be for action with concession that the #s are pretty accurate.

[Eddy Munny]

I. C. W. T. F. D. H. B. N. D. P.

I. S. I. C. S. T. I. D. S. H. O. T. P.

G.H.

[stevenash]

Notre Dame minus the points all day long.

Notre Dame has been paying you off all season, why not?

Mustangs +8.5
Vols +7

Feeling here is OSU may not be mentally all in for this, and the Vols will show up and show out.

[SBR Andy]

CFP futures picks from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Texas to win the CFP (+450 bet365)

Clemson to win the CFP (+6000 FanDuel)

Georgia & Penn State to make CFP semifinals (+153 FanDuel)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

CFP futures picks from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Texas to win the CFP (+450 bet365)

Clemson to win the CFP (+6000 FanDuel)

Georgia & Penn State to make CFP semifinals (+153 FanDuel)

Good stuff, Andy:

1) I do think Texas is the most legit future. They were Favored in the two Georgia games.

2) I'm not sure I see it on Clemson. 60/1 looks enticing. The talent might merit 60/1. But they would need to be more consistent over four games.

3) A lot of people will like that Geo/Penn St ticket. My counter:
...My instinct is that Beck is shot. The dropoff will be significant.
...People will love the PennSt path. I think SMU/Boise are very capable of springing the upset.

Just my two cents. Good Luck, everyone!

[SBR Andy]

Good stuff, Andy:

1) I do think Texas is the most legit future. They were Favored in the two Georgia games.

2) I'm not sure I see it on Clemson. 60/1 looks enticing. The talent might merit 60/1. But they would need to be more consistent over four games.

3) A lot of people will like that Geo/Penn St ticket. My counter:
...My instinct is that Beck is shot. The dropoff will be significant.
...People will love the PennSt path. I think SMU/Boise are very capable of springing the upset.

Just my two cents. Good Luck, everyone!

I agree that PSU and UGA don't have as easy a route as the odds suggest. Interesting that hypothetical lookahead lines have Boise State as a 11.5 point dog to PSU and a 6.5 point dog to SMU.

Georgia a 1 point fav over Notre Dame and 6.5 point fav over Indiana.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I agree that PSU and UGA don't have as easy a route as the odds suggest. Interesting that hypothetical lookahead lines have Boise State as a 11.5 point dog to PSU and a 6.5 point dog to SMU.

Georgia a 1 point fav over Notre Dame and 6.5 point fav over Indiana.

Good stuff, Andy:

1) I've been high on Boise all year. People view them as a Tier Two team. Boise is legit.
...Their offense is balanced. Jeanty is a huge magnet, so Play Action works well.
...I now think the PennSt defense is overrated. Based on how light their schedule has been. Oregon carved them up.
...Will see what those lines are. Boise is capable of winning a CFP game.

2) The GEO/NotD line is telling.
...See my note on Beck. Asking the backup QB to win this game is a tall task.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hi, Andy. Sorry to clog up this thread. One more thought:

*Some would say that the FIVE-seed was the best slot to land.
...The CFP really mangled the rules this year. The Conf Champ seed-guarantee is bad.
...Clemson snuck in, so they stole a bid. ArizSt/Boise are WAY over-seeded.
...This messed up the whole bracket. Oregon went 13-0 and got a raw deal. They might be DOGS vs OhioSt.
...Texas effectively hit the lottery by losing. DD Fav vs Clemson, and they'll be a good-sized Fav vs ArizSt.
...Big12 was a balanced conf. ArizSt has killed me ATS. But it's hard to imagine ArizSt winning a CFP game.

[daneblazer]

This won’t be like March Madness, but someone is going to get upset.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This won’t be like March Madness, but someone is going to get upset.

I agree, Dane. The upset will hit.

Happy Holidays. Hope you're doing well.

[daneblazer]

I agree, Dane. The upset will hit.

Happy Holidays. Hope you're doing well.

You too buddy.
I think I’m leaning Indiana and Boise. Not sure about Boise straight up but I feel like one of Penn State or Texas doesn’t make it to the final 4.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

You too buddy.
I think I’m leaning Indiana and Boise. Not sure about Boise straight up but I feel like one of Penn State or Texas doesn’t make it to the final 4.

Salud, dane. Have my own perceptions on these teams:

1) My one reservation on Indiana = their incredibly light schedule. Non-Conf was weak. Their Big10 schedule only lined up with one Heavy-wt, Ohio St. Rolled in that game, and the close win vs MICH doesn't look good.
...The committee is not good on adjusting for Strength of Schedule. Indiana actually should have been a borderling pick to make this field. But they see 11-1 in the Big10...and give them an immediate pass.

2) I do think SMU is slightly under-rated. Two 3-pt losses to 10-win teams.
...SMU got better after the HC switched to QB Phillips.
...Kicker Rogers has a huge leg. SMU slightly under the radar.

3) Boise is my big hidden gem. I'm anticipating the lines we'll see.
...Jeanty is crazy good. His production was close to the Barry Sanders level.
...I watched enough of their games. If defenses key on Jeanty, the field will open up for Passes and QB runs.
...Boise has a veteran defense. Not great, but I also don't think they'll get gouged.

[SBR Andy]

Early betting insights from BetMGM:

[Ian]

With the price they're getting I like Boise St. too. I think they'd be a very live dog against Georgia if they face them in the semis. Maddux Madsen is a much better game manager than Carson Beck, so I would expect Boise to win the turnover battle. That combined with Jeanty's awesomeness could easily overcome the the talent gap between the two teams.

[Eddy Munny]

This won’t be like March Madness, but someone is going to get upset.

That sounds a lot like March Madness.

[DJK]

Early betting insights from BetMGM:

Andy, where are you getting those numbers from?

[SBR Andy]

Andy, where are you getting those numbers from?

BetMGM

[DJK]

BetMGM

I'm sorry but I'm too lazy to go through everything that's on BetMGM where I do have an account with them, but I haven't seen those.

Where specifically would I find those on BetMGM? I'm using BetMGM NJ if that matters which I don't think it should.

[SBR Andy]

I'm sorry but I'm too lazy to go through everything that's on BetMGM where I do have an account with them, but I haven't seen those.

Where specifically would I find those on BetMGM? I'm using BetMGM NJ if that matters which I don't think it should.

They aren't posted on the site. They send them out to partners so I've been sharing them here when possible.

[DJK]

I'm sorry but I'm too lazy to go through everything that's on BetMGM where I do have an account with them, but I haven't seen those.

Where specifically would I find those on BetMGM? I'm using BetMGM NJ if that matters which I don't think it should.

Did you find those numbers somewhere in here?

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/league/college-football/

Where I login to bet is below and that site doesn't have any betting split info from what I can tell.

https://sports.nj.betmgm.com/en/sports

[DJK]

They aren't posted on the site. They send them out to partners so I've been sharing them here when possible.

Ok, that explains why I cannot find them on their website. Thanks.

[Spite]

I'm the only guy on Ryan Day? He's awesome when not facing Michigan.

[Optional]

Bettors loving on Vols for an upset by the look of MGM numbers.

[SBR Andy]

Indiana 1st Half +4.5 (-115 FanDuel) - I think this may play out similar to the Ohio State game. Indiana usually starts quite well and should be able to hang for the first half. I don't see Notre Dame running away here.

[SBR Andy]

Updated betting data from BetMGM:

“Ohio State defending the ‘Shoe is the biggest need of the first round of the College Football Playoff. Indiana covering against Notre Dame tonight would be the best way to kickoff the new 12 team playoff format.” – Seamus Magee, Trading Manager, BetMGM

[stevenash]

You too buddy.
I think I’m leaning Indiana and Boise. Not sure about Boise straight up but I feel like one of Penn State or Texas doesn’t make it to the final 4.

Good to see you Dane.

Vols are my upset special.

[SBR Andy]

Indiana vs Notre Dame player prop bets, via SBR's Shane Jackson:

Riley Leonard first touchdown scorer (+550 BetMGM)

Omar Cooper Jr. Over 29.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)

Kurtis Rourke Under 0.5 interceptions (+104 Caesars)

[navyblue81]

I took ND ML. Had to lay some juice but I just think the ND defense is goijg to be too much for Rourke. ND just has the better athletes in this game. Plain and simple and it will show. This isn’t Purdue or Rutgers that Indiana is playing.

[2Sweeet]

What were the odds that neither team playing in a college playoff game wouldn't be wearing Nike? LOL ND is Under Armor and Indiana is Adidas.

[Headsterx]

Ops, wrong thread.

[actiondan]

indiana frauds

[navyblue81]

Told a lot of people to beware of ND in the playoffs. When you can run the ball like they can and play defense as well as anyone in the country, you are very dangerous. Indiana finding out the hard way. Total domination so far.